Joseph Teicher
@joeteicher
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trader/developer. Building a team of talented technologists in Chicago to trade FX and futures.
Naperville, IL
Joined February 2009
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@Austan_Goolsbee
In the 80s you could work at a shoe store in the mall and afford this place:
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@mattyglesias
When I met my wife she was doing one of those scammy masters degrees at a prestige university. It was for kids from wealthy families. You're not supposed to do those things if you need to work for a living.
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@AndyMasley
It's just an incorrect ev calculation for swapping.
If X = what you have, you can't say the payoffs for swapping are X or 2X. Because X depends on which state you are in. If you account for that there is no paradox.
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@AlecStapp
Sure, and if there happens to be a famine in a democracy just call it a "failed state" instead and you'll never be wrong.
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@unusual_whales
It seems like they don't know how to advertise movies anymore. I had no idea this movie came out and I remember hearing about it and being interested in it. I see a million ads for ego leaf blowers but no ads for this? So strange.
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@skdh
The rest of the world wouldn't need Europe's permission to solve warming with sulfate aerosols. Europe might just get fucked over.
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@robinhanson
I agree about rudeness online but I find people to be kinder than they used to be in person. When I started in the financial industry in the early 2000s it was commonplace for traders to literally scream profanities at subordinates. Now that would be totally unacceptable.
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@mattyglesias
Probably 90+% of applications come from that group. Oh well. The universities have said they want diverse classes for decades. How can you achieve that other than by pushing down the common groups and bumping up the rare ones? Good thing there are a lot of good schools.
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@predoctit
@cremieuxrecueil
@nianello6
This is not true. Real GDP growth has been accelerated over that time period. It was substantially slower in the 19th century.
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@FuckCarsReddit
@AukeHoekstra
It looks like a strange and interesting place. What's the issue?
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@olivi_eh
If you think investment is parasitical then there are probably a lot of things you can't wrap your head around.
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@debarghya_das
I know a lot of short guys who do well. Height is an advantage, sure, but between shortness and self-pity, shortness has got to be much less of a hindrance.
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@AlecStapp
Germany already get nearly half it's electricity from renewables and it's adding capacity rapidly. Nuclear is not economical. Get over it.
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@JennyENicholson
You've never heard of missiles? They are like planes that have been purpose built to knock down buildings. They are used a lot in war. You'd be the greatest genius in the Star Wars universe if you thought of them.
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@yacineMTB
6 times is 64X so that'd be going from $50K to $3.2M. I guess it happens but that is very rare compared to people who just wear out their welcome after 18 months and are still making $50k after 6 jobs. 2 very different groups of people, easily distinguished in practice.
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@mattyglesias
Most of those places don't have race riots every few years so they've got a point.
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@jonofathens
No, the fermi paradox asks, since the galaxy is so mindbendingly old why does it seem so lifeless aside from Earth. You'd think intelligent life would have arisen many times and spread out all over the place by now.
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@soncharm
If you go to the art institute and stare at this painting long enough you will see that Hopper wanted to put some cute doggos in the foreground but he couldn't get them right so he painted over them. I am sure he would be overjoyed to finally see his shitty painting done right.
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@mattyglesias
Real money thinks inflation is temporary. The long term deflationary pressures have not disappeared.
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@mattyglesias
The whole "insurrection" narrative is deliberate misinformation. On that day everyone understood it was no big deal. Look what the markets did. You think the S&P might move a bit on a coup in the US?
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@north0fnorth
What's exaggerated about ugly townhomes? It's just an affordable way to have a little more space than an apartment.
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@DeepMind
Interesting that deepmind is releasing something powered by openAI. When will deepmind make its own LLM?
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@mattyglesias
Just vilify innocent people for political expediency. That's always a good idea!
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@perdricof
So you're saying that in poor places only the rich get to have fancy tile mosaics and in rich places only the rich get to have fancy tile mosaics? I don't buy it. A nice tile mosaic in your entryway is probably ~$5K but it hasn't been in style. Lots of people could afford them
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@unusual_whales
They aren't too leveraged. those calls are super deep in the money. Probably part of a larger trade? It doesn't make sense on its own.
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@johanknorberg
I think the race to the bottom was mostly about taxes. That's what Obama always talked about and it has kinda happened. Corporate taxes have definitely trended down.
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@JosephPolitano
Time frames matter and he's been consistently pro more legal immigration. At a manageable 1% growth rate we get to 1 billion in about a century
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@byHeatherLong
What does "can retire" mean? Don't you need $millions to retire? And then what if you can retire so you do retire? Then you won't have a "secure job." Amazing that such a huge chunk of people have both.
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@_brianpotter
Carbon nanotubes/graphene were supposed to be a big deal for everything from computer chips to space elevators.
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@senani_n
@Rainmaker1973
Humans can make holes in trees better than woodpeckers can. Have some pride in your species!
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@TheStalwart
I'm impressed with their automation efforts. The ordering kiosks work well. The voice recognition at the drive through is like 90% there. The robot drink dispensers are pretty cool. I'd love to see them automate the whole restaurant in a few years.
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@Noahpinion
They ended remain in Mexico, and since then we've had a bajillion asylum seekers. That doesn't seem super hawkish.
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@Cernovich
Most adults are either obese or elderly or both. How much tailoring is possible when you're taking about such a huge group?
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@buddha2490
@NateSilver538
What's the definition of median for a multidimensional discrete distribution? Does anyone know that?
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@AlexGodofsky
Godzilla? I don't think so. Square cube law. To be that big and move like he does he'd have to be made out of incredibly strong materials. He smashes through skyscrapers with his bare hands and doesn't get a scratch. What military ordinance short of a nuke could do anything to
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@getnormality
Yeah, I'm somewhat familiar with the feeling but I attributed it to rich parents not skin color.
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@NunoFDias
@LeftPov
@mattyglesias
Most European governments don't record a lot of data on the subject so stats are hard to come by. The UK does and there black people make up 3% of the population and 13% of the prison population. That's a similar level of overrepresentation to what you see in the US.
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@IntuitMachine
Without the compression smearing the color around it just looks like a black and white pic with colored lines.
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@MattWallace888
Yes, Elon is great. I disagree with him about some stuff but I think he's an amazing force for good and without him we'd be much worse off. Imagine 2023 without spacex or tesla. That would be really bleak.
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@drvolts
He didn't resign and was popular through the end of his term and then was immediately showered with $10s of millions of book and speaking deals. His cabinet, advisors, party and even his wife stuck by him the whole time.
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@mattyglesias
Would going to Harvard be as valuable if you cut the number of rich whites and replaced them with middle class but smarter Asians? Isn't making friends with the rich whites a big part of the value proposition?
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@QwQiao
I remember when my Dad got a car phone in like 1991. That was so cool. He had no expectation of it ever making him any money. He just wanted it. If you exclude all the people trying to make money off web3, who are the end users and what new experiences are they having?
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@EMostaque
I agree that Sam Altman should stop saying that large models could kill us all. It sounded cool and sophisticated when AGI was a far off Kurzweilian dream but now that we can see how harmless GPT-4 is its cringe.
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@MariusRhodes
@HegelwCrmCheese
When people talk about economic growth they usually talk about growth rate as a % of the current economy. They don't assume growth rate will halve every time the economy doubles in size.
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@PrinceVogel
On the other hand LOTR is a boring chore to get through and the game of thrones books are fun page turners.
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@lporiginalg
20 years ago I paid $1100/month for rent downtown in a major metro area. Now those apartments go for like $1700/month and the building has had major updates in the meantime. This is either fake or a weird situation and what lawyer cant afford $3600/month?!?
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@Mordaedil
@JennyENicholson
I don't remember. Something less dumb than the weapons in The Last Jedi?
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@mattyglesias
Why not? It's not like a person's take on Israel/Palestine matters. The only reason to have a take is to feel good about yourself, so accomplishing that goal with minimal effort should be the goal.
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@mattyglesias
The point of student loans is so humanities phds can have jobs teaching pointless classes to people who should be in the labor market. Making them something other than a pure giveaway to universities obviously defeats the purpose.
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@aduantach
This stuff is standard fare at US waterparks but what then do they sell at waterparks in other countries?
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@mattyglesias
That was what Charles Murray said like 15 years ago or whatever. Elites should "preach what they practice." I think he wrote a whole book about it.
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@JosephPolitano
It doesn't seem like there is anything explicit in the mailer. It seems like it's just informing voters that this candidate did porn in an attention-getting way.
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@mattyglesias
The age thing is cringe in general. There are people older than Biden who have actually important jobs. If he died tomorrow and his staff deep faked him until 2028 it wouldn't matter in the slightest.
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@ESYudkowsky
But most jobs that involve writing are not gonna be about writing stuff that is in the chatGPT training set. You learn to write essays about Shakespeare so you can write highly specific internal corporate bs.
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@Noahpinion
Doesn't match my perception. I feel like fighting about politics peaked in 2020 and has come way down since, to something like the long term average.
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This is the fakest shit imaginable but the AI doomers will run with it.
OK, this story is just unbelievably topical right now... and utterly an "I told you so" from the perspective AI safety community (especially the twist at the end).
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@yajnadevam
@SydSteyerhart
That's just something poor parents tell their kids. What's the evidence?
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@HegelwCrmCheese
That's a linear growth trend. Economic growth is supposed to be exponential. We'd have to have an ever slower growth rate to not eventually return to and exceed that trend line. You really thought that would never happen? You must have had a very bleak view of the future.
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@Dadsaysjokes
He goes by Joe Hill because people wouldn't take him seriously if he was Joe King.
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@SawyerMerritt
So I guess they are a Tesla bear if they think the car business is worth less than $120B.
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@Meaningness
I don't understand what is bad about that output. What would you write if someone asked you to write a wiki article about bears living in space?
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@gerardsans
@WorldWub
@colin_fraser
No, it reasons but it can also be tricked. Humans can also be tricked in similar ways.
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@MelMitchell1
It's empirically true. The most intelligent beings on Earth have gotten more intelligent over time. Intelligence works. It's not the only thing that works but it does work.
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@Tjdriii
I believe it and once I have honed every other aspect of my life to a point of complete and utter perfection then I will consider tackling my caffeine addiction.
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@mattyglesias
The pervasive idea that government is inherently incompetent has lead to the public lowering its standards for government competence and perversely allowed government to get away with being less competent. That's the legacy of libertarianism in the US over the last ~40 years.
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@ChristianTHTN
@heilun_chan
@Finer_Grains
@mattyglesias
Have you ever heard of this stuff called "gangsta rap." It's apparently a musical genre that glorifies criminal behavior and violence and a large percentage of the young men who commit violence are fans!
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@wellingmax
There are ongoing large migrations and have been for a long time. What's the reason Tom think that they will suddenly turn disastrous?
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@mnolangray
Who is doing the banning, aliens? Banning other forms of housing is exactly what you'd expect in a democracy where most people really like neighborhoods of single family homes.
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@elonmusk
@JuicyCreativ3
Is that due to declining capabilities or bad institutional structures? It doesn't seem like an inherent part of human nature. I could happily spend many human lifetimes learning new things.
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