President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, econ prof
@ChicagoBooth
, frmr Chair, Council of Economic Advisers. I don’t speak for the Fed or others on FOMC
This combines 2 things that tick me off: not checking data & not knowing The Simpsons
2023: Nuclear technician salary in IL: $93,210
4 bedroom house in Springfield IL: $220,000
Burns illegally put him in a job req. a nuclear phys degree so he went to college in season 5 ep. 3
My take on Trump blocking the relief bill: he knows he’s about to lose and he fully intends to burn it all to the ground when he does. He doesn’t want to help save people that are going to vote him out. He wants them to suffer. It’s just the beginning.
Your weekly reminder that Rs held up and then blocked the nomination for this same job of a guy that won the Nobel prize (in economics) for not being “sufficiently qualified”
In a recent episode of "The Herman Cain Show," Herman Cain rants about Democratic and media conspiracies, confuses job hires vs. job openings, and doesn't appear to know the difference between the BLS jobs report and ADP private payrolls report
Louis DeJoy’s rise as GOP fundraiser was powered by contributions from company workers who were later reimbursed, former employees say - The Washington Post
The job collapse last month was across the board. This rebound was about 1/10th of the collapse and the majority of the job gains were in just one sector--leisure and hospitality. That feels a bit too dead-cat-bouncy for my taste.
Simple question for each US Senator: when you publicly swore to defend the constitution of the United States from all enemies, foreign and domestic, so help you God, what did you think that meant?
No I will not let you propagate this lie. Just stop it. That is absolutely in no way even remotely true.
Seriously, Art, do you think people cannot even look up Wikipedia and see how absurd this statement is?
Art Laffer: "it's much like Obama, who I believe was the reason why we had the Great Recession. As he got closer and closer to winning the markets collapsed."
I need to get myself one of the Fox News scam gigs.
Volcker’s mantra, one he told me again and again through 2008-9 was that in a crisis the only asset you have is your credibility.
He viewed all the non-crisis time as the period when you must establish the credibility because you will definitely need it eventually.
@crampell
This is what I mean. We spend 2.2t on relief including $200+ billion on corporate tax cuts and $500b in bailouts for big companies but we won’t pay 1b for ventilators? It’s like they don’t even want the economy to come back.
#VirusEconomics
Somewhere Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich are each muttering under their breath about how if only the other two had done the honorable thing it would have never come to this.
Bannon accepted to speak here at U Chicago on economic nationalism but when he found out I was going to debate him, he bailed out. Nobody needs a lecture from him about who the snowflakes are in the marketplace of ideas.
Neera Tanden knows the policy, knows how to get things done, ran a major think tank and will serve the country with distinction. She will make a great OMB director.
The Trump administration's $1.5 trillion cut tax package appeared to have no major impact on businesses' capital investment or hiring plans, according to a new survey.
Before $50 billion for airlines or $5 billion for cruise lines and casinos, how about direct every cent of that money into medical equipment, supplies and personnel?
My three scene run-of-show of the economic crisis:
Scene 1:VIRUS ECONOMICS
Here the most important thing you can do for the economy is slow the virus or show it has a lower bound. Pay sick not to work, buy ventilators, test/isolate. Nothing works until you get a handle on this.
And yes I know Groening said he named it after Springfield OR, but many Simpsons diehards still say it is actually Springfield IL: about an hour fr/ Shelbyville IL, on Lake Springfield, Mr Burns’ thank you note return address says IL and here’s the town squares side-by-side
Happy birthday boss. You delivered us from the brink of the economic abyss. It was the honor of my career to work for you and with your people.
@BarackObama
We have 36.5 million unemployment claims since March.
To understand the monstrosity of that number, consider: the worst week of all times before this was 695k.
If you had that worst week of all times every week for an entire year—52 in a row—that would be 36.1m.
That is a fantasy.
@cbsthismorning
why just quote something patently false. Hundreds of people have specifically contradicted this statement in the real world. Hold these people accountable.
“Any doctor who believes that a test is clinically indicated can get that test done. There’s no barrier whatsoever from the federal government in terms of getting that done.” -- HHS
@SecAzar
on
#coronavirus
testing in the U.S.
I’m proud to have helped out
@PeteButtigieg
where I could and think he has a great future ahead of him. He made an epic run—far beyond what anyone expected—and he will do everything he can to get a Dem into the WH in November.
Thanks Mayor
Important note: relief $ is not stimulus. You can’t compare to the size of the current output gap to know if it is “too big”.
Relief money prevents the output gap from getting bigger, can prevent permanent damage, and is important.
Stop judging it as stimulus.
@NobelPrize
Remembering when Josh Angrist moonlighted as an Uber driver to get info for a paper (he got low ratings b/c passengers said he asked them too many questions).
Rando drunk Boston ppl driven around by a Nobel laureate studying incentives and human behavior is <kiss-fingers>
1/ For the sake of the stability of the Government of Pakistan, I have resigned from the Economic Advisory Council, as the Government was facing a lot of adverse pressure regarding my appointment from the Mullahs (Muslim clerics) and their supporters.
They’re pushing a $20b/year tax on middle class b/c ‘it’s so small, no one will notice’
Reminder: proposal to charge large financial institutions a fee for the risks they impose is 1/2 that size and closing the carried interest loophole is 1/10th.
#NoOneWillNotice
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross leaves CNBC hosts dumbfounded after he tells them that American families won't be bothered by tariffs on $200b of Chinese goods because "it's spread over thousands and thousands of products" so "nobody will actually notice" that prices went up.
My 50th birthday today.
Dad turns 80 in feb but almost never made it to 50: heart attack & quintuple bypass at 49. But he recovered and got to see me graduate, get married, and to know his 3 grandkids. He and mom retired together back to Abilene TX. I will always be thankful.
A lot of crap is wrong in the world.
But Janet Yellen is now the Secretary of the Treasury.
My old advisor James Tobin is smiling down now: “It’s going to work out. Don’t worry.”
My NYT piece Wed was a pre-buttal of sorts to L.Summers’ argument today.
Here’s why I say going small and slow is a bad idea in a pandemic (and jobs
#s
this morning say we made the mistake once already)
2 1/2 weeks ago my mom mailed me a birthday present via USPS to give them a boost in their hour of need. It was a noble idea. Except it means I still don’t have it.
@RonaldKlain
To anyone not old enough to remember what happened, US auto companies faced liquidation as the Obama/Biden admin came in. VP Biden was one of the main champions of rescuing them. It did. And it worked. And everyone knows it. Including Donald Trump...Especially Donald Trump.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross leaves CNBC hosts dumbfounded after he tells them that American families won't be bothered by tariffs on $200b of Chinese goods because "it's spread over thousands and thousands of products" so "nobody will actually notice" that prices went up.
@jmartNYT
Donald trump will not answer whether he will peacefully turnover power if he loses. How are we deciding to put less pressure on that one than this?
@megynkelly
I’m not trying to fight you, Megyn. I just think this is not you. Don’t do this.
The side that wins a bitter contest can say “we won, now you will pay” or “we won, let’s heal”
You feel Trump was attacked. They feel he was the attacker. There’s only 1 way to stop grievance wars
As savage as this new UI claims number is today (essentially tying the 10X all-time record level of last week), it still probably well understates the truth. Many claims offices remain overloaded and people that qualify have not been able to file.
As Boomers look to sell their dream homes, they aren't finding ready buyers. The mismatch between what Boomers are selling and what Millennials are buying is a big looming challenge for the housing market. via
@WSJ
The percentage of small businesses not able to fill open positions hit 36% in June, according to the NFIB Research Center, the highest level on record.
Folks saying UI is the main cause of worker scarcity (as opposed to the jobs being high pandemic risk roles and traditionally drawing on female employees who are having major struggles getting kids into childcare and schools so they can go back to work) explain two things:
Requiring bailout firms not to pay dividends, do share repurchases or increase executive compensation is not a liberal political condition or a socialist plot. It’s a vital, common sense rule. Rescue money is to prevent firings & liquidation not for distributing to themselves.
Paul Volcker was the closest thing to a legit super hero that economics has yet produced.
He was also a friend and mentor to many, including me, and a source of wisdom right up to his final days.
We will miss you, big guy. The whole world will.
@jasonfurman
This is what I mean by virus economics not being the same as regular business cycle economics. The best stimulus is anything that slows the spread of the virus, even if in the immediate sense it “hurts” the economy.
How many job reports like this will it take before the people arguing there is a trade off between health and the economy admit that getting control of the virus is critical for fixing the economy?
[*Narrator: he already knew the answer to this question*]
Pretty interesting that massive job creation (including eye-popping numbers in leisure/hospitality & construction) has not seemed to diminish by even one iota the fervor of the ppl insisting workers refuse to work b/c of UI.
After my dad died last summer, my mom decided to run for statehouse in Abilene TX on a platform of affordable health care.
Fast forward to yesterday: mom is now the dem nominee in TX-71. Way to go mom!
If you like spunky fighters, this is her
Joint statement by conservatives Stephen Moore, Art Laffer, Steve Forbes: "Don’t expand welfare and other income redistribution benefits like paid leave and unemployment benefits that will inhibit growth and discourage work"
AAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH
Tonight making dinner I thought about how this old skillet is almost 100. It made it through depressions, world wars and now pandemics. Still cooking. Here’s to 97 more yrs of feeding our families.
Think of your loved ones tonight. We’ll be ok. We’ve made it through worse.
How do they not see that this s what kills the economy, too? Before you spend $1 trillion on bailouts, you need to spend whatever it takes on slowing the virus and saving lives. Without that, we cannot recover.
This.
Turning the apparatus of the law enforcement and power of the state to investigate and drive out political opponents is straight out of the authoritarian strongman play book—fully predicted in Ziblatt and Levitsky’s book
We're all losing the plot here. The big question is Trump's "absolute right" to have any American investigated by any country, for any reason Trump likes
Scene 2: PREVENT FOREVER DAMAGE FROM NOW PROBLEMS
Even if it rebounds soon, many businesses & ppl will not be able to survive the shock. Extensions on loans, food stamps, bankruptcy/foreclosure moratoria, money to stave off permanent collapse is key here.
On White House wish-list for "Stimulus 4," likely similar to what it was couple weeks ago, per aides:
- Payroll tax cut
- Extend full expensing
- Deductions for meals/entertainment/sports (though who's going?)
- "Liability shield"
- Infrastructure?
My first ID.
26 yrs ago today,
@UChicago
put me on the payroll. I was not yet 26 then so it means I have now spent more than half my life here.
It has been a great blessing to be part of this place and to learn from so many.
#ThankYouChicago
@ChicagoBooth
When I worked in Poland in 1990, I met a guy that served multiple years in prison for the crime of teaching free-market economics. He gave me copies of their samizdat that were mostly translations of economists’ writings like the Friedman/Samuelson Newsweek columns.
Every informed person said at the time of the tax cut that stimulus at peak boom made no sense and the fed would respond. That counts as a tax cut error (among many).
@RichardRubinDC
Nonetheless. If rate hikes have had the effect of slowing the economy before hitting its full potential, then that's the Fed's error, not the tax cuts'.
And there’s good hay to be made in using
#1
as stimulus—govt program to 3x ventilators, rent out entire hotels for 6 mos for care centers, whatever. Do the WWII mobilization type stuff applied to health. It ramps down fear can help move us quicker to scenes 2 and 3.
@RudyGiuliani
Pressed by Fox News host S. Doocy to elaborate on whether he knew the FBI's announcement was coming, Giuliani said ...
"Did I hear about it? You're darn right I heard about it, and I can't even repeat the language that I heard from the FBI agents."
Most know Paul Volcker as the legendary Fed Chair.
Fewer know how he loved cooking turkey for Thanksgiving & was a master at it. He never told me the secret recipe but hinted that port basting was key. So now I make gravy with port as an homage to the big guy
Happy Thanksgiving
Last night the whole family went out and looked 18 degrees up from the W horizon at exactly 9:38pm and watched the International Space Station cruise by for 4 minutes. There wasn’t much to it—just a dot moving in the sky. But it was what we needed. It was awesome.
If this is the end of twitter, I just want to say that when my Dad died last year and I wrote about it on here, the love and support you all gave meant so much to me and, truly, thank you from the bottom of my heart.