Jennifer Kavanagh
@jekavanagh
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Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis @Defpriorities . Formerly @CarnegieEndow @RANDCorporation . Tweets on U.S. defense policy & military strategy.
Washington, DC
Joined July 2012
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There is a legitimate debate to be had about the risks & benefits of a foreign policy based on restraint. But the argument that "the United States has, since the end of World War II, largely pursued a policy of restraint" is inconsistent w/ the data. 1/7
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"Washington is slowly waking up to the fact that Germany’s Zeitenwende is a mirage. German defense spending this year is expected to be about €50 billion, falling well short once again of NATO’s target of 2 percent of GDP."
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This graph shows the number of ongoing U.S. military interventions (air, ground, naval) since 1898. We used a 100 person-year threshold for ground interventions and similar for air & naval. The U.S. has been consistently involved in ~15 interventions at a time since WW2. 2/7
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Highly recommend this great article on key capabilities that would affect the outcome of a war in the Taiwan Strait.
Cool graphics & FINALLY an article on this topic that acknowledges the reality of limited U.S. access for ground-based missiles!
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None of this looks much like a policy of restraint. Instead, the data suggest the U.S. has used military intervention extensively since WW2 and that the scope of these interventions has been expanding. 5/7
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What if we consider only ground interventions? The story is largely the same. The number of ongoing U.S. ground interventions has been about the same since 1990 as it was between 1945-1970, and in both periods interventions have been more frequent than before WW2. 3/7
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We also looked at the objectives of all these military interventions and how successful the U.S. has been at achieving them. We found that rates of success have fallen over time. Why? Partly because objectives have *expanded* in scope. 4/7
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With
@RANDCorporation
colleagues, we looked at this question of whether "doing nothing is worse than doing something."
We found:
1. No clear differences in outcomes for nations where the U.S. intervened and comparable non-intervention cases.
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This would be a mistake. DoD does not have the right types of expertise for this task & it is not organized to execute this task. Plus, DoD's bandwidth is already stretched.
The push to securitize everything about the U.S.-China competition in this way is counterproductive.
A group of US representatives are trying to move export control authority from Commerce to DoD, claiming Commerce is inept. The bill would also prohibit top officials working on export controls in Commerce from moving to DoD to help administer the program:
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There is much the U.S. needs to do to better protect U.S. interests from an aggressive China and a revisionist Russia, but it's not clear that building a bigger, more interventionist military with a larger budget is the answer. 6/7
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My new report with
@michaeldrich
defines what we are calling
#TruthDecay
—a decline in reliance on facts, data, and analysis in American public and civil discourse. We describe the causes and the consequences and lay out a strategy to respond:
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In
@ForeignAffairs
@FWehrey
& I argue that U.S. partners in the ME are no longer satisfied w/ Washington’s attempts to create exclusive, U.S.-led blocs.
They seek alternatives & diverse partners. This reality demands a new U.S. approach to the region. 🧵
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Notably the words "multipolar" and "multipolarity" do not appear in the new NSS.
Grappling w/ how the U.S. can protect its interests while accepting that the world is & will be multipolar is a central challenge in U.S. foreign policy today. But this is missing from the NSS.
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For
@ForeignAffairs
,
@RANDCorporation
's Bryan Frederick & I describe our research on trends in U.S. military interventions, when they work, & why they fail so often.
3 takeaways 🧵⬇️
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What is Truth Decay? We identify four trends:
1- Increasing disagreement about objective facts
2- A blurring of the line between opinion and fact
3- Increasing relative volume of opinion over fact
4- Declining trust in formerly respected sources of information /1
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Although much has changed since he wrote it, parts of Morgenthau's 1967
@ForeignAffairs
article on U.S. military intervention remain very relevant today.
First, he cautions against interventions made on the basis of ideology.
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The U.S. should not extend new security guarantees anywhere -- its military is already overstretched -- but especially not in cases like Ukraine, where the commitment lacks credibility.
Bringing Ukraine into NATO would increase risks & burdens w/ little benefit for deterrence.
Strong Politico story by
@mattberg33
on Ukraine NATO fight that discusses intense policy competition on the issue.
Ukraine ‘bridge’ to NATO could be dangerous, experts warn via
@politico
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I'm excited to share that I've joined the American Statecraft Program
@CarnegieEndow
as a senior fellow. I'll be studying the relationships between power centers in the internat'l. system. Follow me here for updates on what I'm learning and why it matters.
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Have you checked out
@RANDCorporation
's new database of free tools that can help you identify
#disinformation
online and locate credible sources? It's part of our Countering
#TruthDecay
Initiative and you can access it here: .
I study disinformation. I analyze tactics used to wage influence campaigns/push false narratives. And still, every single day, I see several things in the news that take me a while to determine the veracity of. It's becoming more difficult to tell what's real & what's not. Scary.
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Heard
@BarackObama
talking about
#TruthDecay
on
@60Minutes
last night? Love the term and want to know more?
@michaeldrich
and I wrote whole book on the topic
@RANDCorporation
. You can download for free here:
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Those who support cutting aid to Ukraine to arm Taiwan are right that tradeoffs matter but wrong about the tradeoffs likely to help Taiwan most.
@jbcohen92
& I argue that pausing arms sales to the Middle East is a better way to meet Taiwan's needs.
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2. Many non-intervention cases resolved without damage to U.S. interests.
3. When intervening, the U.S. achieved its stated objectives only ~60% of the time, often at high cost.
4. Outcomes were better for small, limited scope interventions than for large, long ones.
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There are a number of problems here, but the most fundamental is that it can't be an anti-hegemonic coalition when its goal is to preserve U.S. hegemony in Asia.
Why is Taiwan important? The semiconductors are important but actually less key than the island's 1) military and 2) geopolitical significance for an effective anti-hegemonic coalition. I laid out why at
@NatConTalk
2022.
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Lots more here:
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My new report — the latest in our series on
#TruthDecay
— identifies and empirically measures how the presentation of news has changed over time and across media platforms. /1
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This week
@AlexWardVox
and I talked about
#TruthDecay
, why its complicates our COVID-19 recovery, and prospects for change in the future. Check out our conversation.
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Many Biden admin. policies aim to force Indo-Pacific "hedgers" to choose between the U.S. & China.
For
@ForeignPolicy
,
@ka_grieco
& I argue that these states have already made their choice, opting for multi-alignment w/ both & w/ other major powers.
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I'm pleased to see that
@barackobama
's summer reading list includes
@RANDCorporation
's book on
#TruthDecay
, a serious threat to democracy that transcends both political parties.
You can download it for free here:
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"In Europe, it was clear that the United States...remains the global crisis hotline of choice."
This doesn't seem like a good or sustainable outcome for the U.S. or for Europe.
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100% this. I am still in shock (though I guess I shouldn't be) that sending JASSMs to Ukraine would even be on the table, given their limited supply and centrality to any contingency in Asia.
The Biden Administration keeps pouring weapons into Ukraine that are badly needed to deter China—JASSMs of all things look to be next.
If the US fails to deter—or defeat—a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next few years, this will be a key reason why.
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#TruthDecay
presents a vital threat to the health and future of American democracy. It also has serious economic and national security consequences.
Join with
@RANDCorporation
in working to promote the importance of facts in in political discourse:
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There is no "reasonably low cost" war with China. ANY defense of Taiwan--even a well armed Taiwan--will be economically and militarily devastating for the United States.
*The best - indeed the only - way* to make such a defense viable is for Taiwan to arm up dramatically and for us to focus on Asia.
If we can come to Taiwan's defense at a reasonably low cost for Americans, it'll be plausible they will back doing so. 2/
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It was great talking with
@cspanwj
about
#TruthDecay
and its consequences for American democracy
Jennifer Kavanagh of RAND Corporation discusses the new report "diminishing role of facts & analysis in American public life" & its affect on policymaking & democracy
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It was great to have my
#TruthDecay
report with
@michaeldrich
on this
@Altmetric
2018 list alongside other
@RANDCorporation
colleagues
@bodinebaron
@Helmus
@BrianMJenkins
and Brian Stecher.
We'll have more Truth Decay research coming in 2019! Stay tuned!
Rigorous, objective research won’t have an impact if it stays on a shelf. So--Pleased & proud to see that
@RANDCorporation
books earned 4 of the top 20
@Altmetric
scores in 2018.
Congratulations to
@jekavanagh
: Our book, Truth Decay, led the rankings.
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#TurkishCoup
may have failed, but
#Erdogan
emerges a damaged leader. More instability in
#Turkey
is likely in the future.
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A lot of the discussion about how to safely conduct the November
#Election2020
focuses on the availability of mail-in voting. But, my work with
@qhodgson
highlights other aspects of the voting process that require attention. (1/7)
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My new
#TruthDecay
report (with
@MichaelSPollard
) examines how reliability, demographics, and political partisanship factor into news choices and how often people seek out differing viewpoints in the news.
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More than half of U.S. adults have received at least one
#COVID19
vaccine dose, but many Americans don't want to get the shot.
The spread of disinformation—one part of
#TruthDecay
—is fueling vaccine hesitancy, threatening our ability to end the pandemic for good. [thread]
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Distinguishing fact from falsehood online can be tough, but there are lots of innovative (and free!) tools that can help!
We developed a searchable database of these tools to make it easier to explore the options and choose tools that work for you.
#TruthDecay
People have access to more information than ever before. But it can still be hard to distinguish accurate info from low-quality or false content.
That's why we created a database of tools aimed at fighting the spread of disinformation online. [thread]
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ASEAN leaders are meeting in Jakarta but President Biden isn't there.
@ka_grieco
& I argue
@latimes
that his failure to attend is symptomatic of a larger problem w/ U.S. SE Asia policy: U.S. absence from the key coalitions deciding the region's future.
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The Biden admin. is shifting messaging on Ukraine spending, arguing that more money to defense contractors is "an economic boon at home" & "good for American jobs."
The problem? Defense spending is a very inefficient job creator. Most estimates massively inflate the benefits.
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Today's
@nytimes
has a deep dive on recent increases in military spending & their implications.
Here's a thread of some of the eye-popping numbers.
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In
@ForeignAffairs
,
@FWehrey
& I consider how damage to Russia's defense industrial base may interfere with Middle East arms sales & implications for the U.S.
Key takeaway: "Just because there might be new demands for weapons...doesn’t mean that Washington should meet them."🧵
“A declining Russian role in the region’s lucrative arms trade would have profound effects for Russia’s position in the Middle East.”
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The NDS Commission report is out.
BLUF: The recommendations & vision it lays out are entirely infeasible, undesirable, dangerous, and frightening.
No way I could summarize in one post so 🧵
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We define
#TruthDecay
as a system that includes causes, key trends, and consequences. Understanding how this system works is essential to untangling the problem.
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You can read the full report here:
'Truth decay' features in this week's
#WeeklyWordWatch
, after
@RANDCorporation
released an extensive report on 'the diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life', written by
@michaeldrich
and
@jekavanagh
.
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Thanks to
@brianstelter
for the opportunity to discuss
#TruthDecay
on
@ReliableSources
yesterday. Find out more about my report with
@michaeldrich
and
@RANDCorporation
's other recent research on the topic:
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#TruthDecay
presents a serious threat to our
#democracy
. But it's not too late to fight back. Learn more in our new short video.
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Right-wing extremists perpetrated 63% extremist-related US killings in 2015. Why isn't this a bigger
#natsec
focus?
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Restarting SOF activities in Ukraine would bring a much higher risk of escalation than any weapons system the U.S. has considered providing.
Pentagon assurances aside, it is a slippery slope from programs like this to direct U.S. involvement in combat.
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Historically, partitions have failed to end wars. It’s unlikely that the outcome in
#Syria
would be different:
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For
@ForeignAffairs
@FWehrey
& I discuss 3 risks the U.S. must manage after Biden’s rush of U.S. military forces & weapons to the Middle East after Oct 7: escalation, backlash, & overstretch.
We argue retrenchment is the only way to address these risks.
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We know little about who becomes a
#terrorist
. Policies based on generalizations are dangerous & counterproductive:
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We had a great discussion on
#TruthDecay
, the role of social media, and what we still need to know to come up with solutions. Thanks to all who came!
#TruthDecay
: What is role of media?
@laurahazardowen
@jekavanagh
@davidlazer
@cward1e
at
@RANDCorporation
Boston.
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The multi-theater force construct recommended by the NDS Commission is imprudent & insolvent, I argue in
@BreakingDefense
. America will be more secure if it does less. That means reducing commitments in the ME & Europe to focus on Asia & the homeland.
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Is
#TruthDecay
new?
In Chapter 3 of my report with
@michaeldrich
, we explore three periods similar to today and what we can learn from them about fighting Truth Decay and protecting
#democracy
.
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Great thread from
@ProfPaulPoast
on the question of NATO expansion.
Is
@NATO
membership really THAT valuable?
Is Article 5 actually worth it?
It's definitely PERCEIVED as worth it....which is probably good enough.
[THREAD]
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🧵 Key points on U.S. decision to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine:
-up to 30 tanks but not intended for the near fight
& won't arrive before fall, possibly not for years.
-ordered from manufacturers not taken from U.S. stocks.
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5
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What is
#TruthDecay
and what can we do to counter it? I spoke with
@BBCr4today
@bbcnickrobinson
about the role of media and civic literacy and the need for changes in how the government and media communicate information. Listen here (2:53:23):
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8
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Death of
#MullahMansour
won't lead to
#Taliban
's demise, but competition between potential successors may disrupt group's recent resurgence.
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Improving U.S. intelligence doesn't require more data. What we need is less secrecy and better analysis:
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Confronted w/ many challenges, one risk the U.S. faces is overextension. Effective use of the right kinds of networks can allow the U.S. to compete but avoid overreach.
My new paper considers what types of networks the U.S. needs in a multipolar world.
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Falsehoods penetrate further, faster, and deeper than accurate information on Twitter, says a massive new study from MIT scientists,
@yayitsrob
reports
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Are
#Millennials
really that different than previous generations? Short answer: Probably not.
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There has been a lot of talk about tradeoffs between supporting Ukraine & arming Taiwan.
Tradeoffs do exist, but not for the reasons you think.
In
@WarOnTheRocks
,
@jbcohen92
& I break down the true drivers of Taiwan's arms backlog & how to fill it.
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According to Richard Haass in FT *today* "There is also the possibility that providing Israel with arms could increase US influence over how it uses them."
Are we really still peddling this fantasy?
"Too scared to leave, too scared to coerce partners, the superpower loiters like a pitiful giant, its aid, diplomatic support and arms earning it complicity with little influence." -
@PatPorter76
, 8 months ago
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How can public relations professionals help fight
#TruthDecay
? This is a great summary of a honest discussion about that topic with PR leaders.
PR and the problem of Truth Decay: It's a matter of trust by
@annefieldonline
via
@museumofpr
@fordpat
,
@tmccorkindale
,
@jekavanagh
,
@NorrisWest
,
@markstouse
,
@RANDCorporation
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Political costs for positions on Ukraine aid are pretty unlikely. Voters don't know that much about foreign policy and rarely vote based on foreign policy issues.
Biden admin. will need to pivot its approach on Ukraine to accommodate concerns of GOP skeptics to keep $ flowing.
Yeah that’s not how politics works. If only said politician got wonkier and made my policy argument is a think tanker fallacy. Biden has to make opposing Ukraine politically costly for GOP. To do that he has to make it seem weird/extreme and costly with moderates
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If this is the inevitable future, we have to question the purpose of keeping tens of thousands of U.S. troops deployed in the region. Ostensibly their purpose to maintain stability & deterrence. They are doing neither & make vulnerable targets. It's time to bring most home.
Whether we end up in a regional war, the future seems pretty clear: Seemingly never-ending, grinding wars of attrition between Israel and Iran and its proxies with few if any off ramps and prospects for enduring deescalation.
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Check out my new piece
@WarOnTheRocks
w/
@jcaverley
&
@EthanKapstein
about what DoD should think about as it finishes its first ever Defense Industrial Base Strategy.
We argue there isn't one defense industrial base but several, so tailored approaches & prioritization are needed!
How can the Pentagon ensure that it receives, at scale, the remarkable range of weaponry and military-related systems it needs now and in the future?
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As
#cyberwarfare
becomes a more powerful weapon, we may also need a new international law of war to govern its use:
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#TruthDecay
has historical precedents. But the current strain is unique in ways that present a more urgent threat to American
#democracy
. My
@CNNOpinion
op-ed with
@michaeldrich
explains why:
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10
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In
@ForeignPolicy
,
@DanDePetris
& I argue that treating China, Iran, North Korea, & Russia as an "axis of evil" (or upheaval, disorder, authoritarians, etc) overstates the endurance & coherence of what are largely transactional, bilateral partnerships.
1
8
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My colleague
@stephenwertheim
argues that we need talk more extensively & realistically about the true costs of a major war.
This theatrical B-21 roll-out is a symptom of the problem. War is not a game but is often depicted as one.
That needs to change.
In Opinion
Not having to worry about the effects of wars “has nearly become a birthright of being American,” Stephen Wertheim, a U.S. foreign policy scholar, writes in a guest essay. “That birthright has come to an end.”
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The 🇺🇸 needs significant contributions from partners to deter 🇨🇳.
Japan’s planned increase in defense spending is a good first step, but likely too small & gradual to reduce the U.S. defense burden any time soon.
I explain more for
@CarnegieEndow
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"Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said...that a NATO deployment of trainers [to Ukraine] appeared inevitable."
Sending trainers a gateway drug. It inevitably leads to deeper involvement. This would be a huge mistake.
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Yesterday
@rzadek
and I talked about the causes and consequences of
#TruthDecay
--including the role played by the media and why facts and evidence matter to policymaking. It was a great conversation! If you missed it, you can listen here!
Our politics are increasingly wrought with "Truth Decay", which my guest
@jekavanagh
defines as the diminishing reliance on facts and data in US political and civil discourse. During yesterday's show, Jennifer got into the meat of what we can do about it.
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Why is addressing the spread of online disinformation so hard? Because part of the problem is human nature--the way we consume, process, and share information.
@michaeldrich
and I wrote about this in our report on
#TruthDecay
.
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Agree 100% with this. The U.S. should employ & enforce conditionality far more often, including especially security assistance & arms sales.
Bernie’s formulation here—“you want our money? Fine, this is what you’ve got to do to get it”—should be the general orientation of the US.
I could think of many places where it should apply.
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Check out my conversation with
@darworland
about the role of facts in today's public discourse, how new technology has changed media consumption and accelerated
#truthdecay
, and what we can do about it.
NEW podcast: In our 9th episode examining American democracy,
@jekavanagh
of
@RANDCorporation
talks truth decay with
@darworland
. It's a term that couldn't be more relevant in today's information landscape.
LISTEN: wherever you get your pods or —>
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NIH Funds RAND Corporation Opioid Research Center Dedicated to Policies for Addressing the National Crisis via
@RANDCorporation
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"Though the U.S. had spent hundreds of millions of dollars transforming Niger into its top military outpost in the Sahara, it didn’t have an ambassador in the country."
A security-only approach to foreign policy fails over & over. Maybe time to change?
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Thanks
@cspanwsj
for having me on the show this morning to talk about our new report on changes in news presentation, the second in
@RANDCorporation
's
#TruthDecay
series. It was a great way to start the weekend!
You can find the report here:
Jennifer Kavanagh, Senior Political Scientist at RAND Corporation, discusses a new report examining how the news media has become more biased over the last 30 years
Watch then call & comment with your thoughts:
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Great to participate in an
@EdWriters
panel today in
#NewOrleans
about
#TruthDecay
,
#character
education, and the importance of civic literacy.
#ewaCHARACTER
To learn more, see
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5
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Adding to
@austinjdahmer
's essential point, defense spending is a poor job creator. If what you are after is more U.S. manufacturing jobs, more arms sales is an inefficient way to do it. Combined w/ the lack of available workers, existing production will just be more overburdened
To those arguing the supplemental really goes to US jobs and is not “sent to Ukraine”:
You’re either disingenuous or ignorant of reality. Appropriations for PDA backfill greenlight DoD sending all those existing arms to Ukraine, then it takes *years* for DoD to get the
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This is in line with a broader trend we’ve seen over the years: Despite there being more scientific data than ever telling us that vaccines are safe and low risk, skepticism about *all* vaccines seems to be getting worse.
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Only in DC do we have "integrated deterrence"-themed buses....but
@wmata
can you tell us what it means??
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@PaulPoast
on how domestic politics constrains U.S. influence abroad:
"That is the foundation of the rule of law, a key pillar of the democratic values that the U.S. espouses at home and champions abroad. Following last week, it will be ever more difficult for it to do either."
Embarrassing. Destabilizing. Foreboding.
Those words capture how the Supreme Court's Dobbs ruling hurts US foreign policy. My latest for
@WPReview
.
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You can download the book and learn more about our
#TruthDecay
project here:
Stay tuned for more work on this topic coming later this year!
Thanks
@CarlosLozadaWP
&
@washingtonpost
for including our
@RANDCorporation
book on Truth Decay in this review. The book is our first word on the subject, but not our last. Much more to come.
cc
@jekavanagh
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The U.S. doesn't need & cannot afford to increase its focus or spending on counterterrorism -- even in after the ISIS-K attack in Moscow.
I explain for
@CarnegieEndow
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Given recruiting challenges across the military services, this research from my colleagues
@CChivvis
& Sahil Lauji is even more important & timely.
Barriers to advancement & lack of representation harm military effectiveness & may also impact willingness to serve.
African Americans are largely underrepresented in the general officer ranks of the U.S. military, due to a variety of factors.
In
@CEIPStatecraft
’s newest piece,
@CChivvis
and Sahil S. Lauji explain how to bridge this gap in representation:
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How does
#TruthDecay
affect civil discourse and what does that mean for American
#democracy
? Nick Goldberg from
@latimes
and I discussed this topic
@RANDCorporation
in Santa Monica:
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In my new piece for
@CarnegieEndow
I focus on three developments from the war in Ukraine that can help us better understand how power works in today's world.
A short thread 🧵
War is about power—who has it, who doesn’t, and who can effectively use it. But the outcomes over the first months of the war in Ukraine have surprised many observers, challenging some of our traditional understandings of power.
@jekavanagh
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