Alex Velez-Green
@Alex_agvg
Followers
4,543
Following
1,370
Media
27
Statuses
3,530
Senior Policy Advisor @Heritage . Former NSA @HawleyMO . Views my own.
Joined October 2012
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Telegram
• 1202461 Tweets
Pavel Durov
• 350745 Tweets
#सत्संग_क्यों_सुनें
• 189732 Tweets
Sant Rampal Ji Maharaj
• 189530 Tweets
ドジャース
• 165792 Tweets
Hezbollah
• 79828 Tweets
嫌いボタン
• 57247 Tweets
ガッチャード
• 55233 Tweets
FANDOMS PELA AMAZÔNIA
• 36760 Tweets
日韓百合
• 31150 Tweets
Nevada
• 27067 Tweets
Daytona
• 25470 Tweets
#UFCVegas96
• 24233 Tweets
プリキュア
• 23958 Tweets
Maya Moore
• 17367 Tweets
#NASCAR
• 16685 Tweets
#SUPER_EIGHT_20TH
• 16319 Tweets
カグヤ様
• 14441 Tweets
設営完了
• 12463 Tweets
Milito
• 11757 Tweets
Chivas
• 11556 Tweets
関西デビュー20周年
• 10949 Tweets
Serna
• 10654 Tweets
Michael Morales
• 10227 Tweets
Trey Lance
• 10078 Tweets
クロトー
• 10055 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Today, I am proud to share
@Heritage
’s new special report on US defense strategy.
In it,
@RealBobPeters
and I argue for the USA to prioritize homeland defense & deterring China, while empowering allies to lead elsewhere w/ more limited US support.
1/
31
29
108
AMERICANS: After years of war and devastating globalization, we'd like a foreign policy that actually takes care of our families and communities.
COMMENTARIAT: Let's go to war with Russia.
AMERICANS: That seems like a bad idea.
COMMENTARIAT: Stop shilling for Putin.
34
556
3K
Devastating assessment of Taiwan's defense preparations by
@RANDCorporation
.
Bottom line, the USA should do everything possible to deter China. But Taiwan has to do its part—and it is not.
Full report at link.
Key quotes:
1/18
85
364
1K
The
@RANDCorporation
's latest report is admirably candid in its assessment of US military shortfalls in Asia.
In sum, we’ve long assumed we'll be able to deter China or win if deterrence fails. That’s no longer a safe bet.
A few key quotes:
1/9
44
225
828
It's a testament to China's economic power that we're still not talking about the fact there's a real possibility COVID-19 originated in a PRC laboratory. We're not even talking anymore about the fact that the CCP covered up the initial outbreak, delaying a global response.
NOW - WHO's Tedros says COVID remains a global health emergency.
1K
425
1K
34
274
789
Power. It's all about power.
Xi wouldn't feel so comfortable speaking this way to a foreign leader if China weren't as powerful as it has become.
Imagine how Xi and his successors will treat foreign leaders -- incl. American leaders -- if China achieves its hegemonic ambitions.
The Cdn Pool cam captured a tough talk between Chinese President Xi & PM Trudeau at the G20 today. In it, Xi express his displeasure that everything discussed yesterday “has been leaked to the paper(s), that’s not appropriate… & that’s not the way the conversation was conducted”
2K
5K
15K
237
79
423
China's military is increasingly formidable. As a result, there’s a good chance we won’t be able to deter China for the rest of the 2020s—and that US forces will be defeated if deterrence fails.
I lay out why in my latest for
@TheNatlInterest
. 1/15
53
127
418
Sen. Hawley: “Is it fair to say that China’s ability to engage in limited nuclear employment at the theater level is growing?”
STRATCOM: “Senator, not only yes. If you’ll ask me that in closed session, I’ll give you a very vivid example of what that could do to us.”
15
131
321
The USA waited for Russia to invade Ukraine before establishing the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
We shouldn't wait for China to invade Taiwan before we provide similar support for Taiwan.
Now is the time to arm Taiwan.
18
78
298
Many will use Russia's failures in Ukraine to argue that the USA is overestimating the Chinese military threat.
But China is a far more sophisticated adversary than Russia. We should plan for Beijing to learn from Moscow's errors, not repeat them.
30
65
279
Don't know who needs to hear this, but if you're surprised that large-scale conventional war is still a thing, you haven't been paying attention.
Power politics and war didn't just come back. They never went away. Too many in the West just allowed themselves to think they had.
4
63
242
Imagine if Europeans had taken Americans' advice to invest seriously in their defense a decade ago.
Or if that's too hard, just imagine a world where they'd ramped up spending & investments after Russia invaded Ukraine again in 2022.
What a different world it would be. 1/
“Putin gains every day that Ukraine does not get the resources it needs, and Ukraine suffers.”
On
@CNNSotu
,
@JakeSullivan46
calls on
@SpeakerJohnson
to hold a vote on Ukraine aid passed by the Senate.
62
37
82
44
68
237
The international system appears to be primed for another world war. Regional security equilibria in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia all depend on the US being able to intervene decisively to deter or defeat aggression. 1/
33
49
187
The next National Defense Strategy must be clear.
China is the pacing threat.
The Indo-Pacific is the priority theater.
Taiwan is the pacing scenario.
And the strategy is denial.
11
22
164
Neoconservatives have controlled Republican national security policy for years.
Now, a growing number of Republicans want something new. Not to retreat from the world, but to stay engaged on terms that more clearly favor US interests.
I lay out how in
@amconmag
& below.
1/14
The more focused and realistic approach advocated by a new generation of conservative leaders is a welcome break with the past.
By Alexander Velez-Green
1
9
23
8
48
157
A few things stand out about the US foreign policy establishment in recent years.
1) It's got a horrible track record.
2) It hasn't accepted that the unipolar moment is over.
3) It has a trans-Atlantic bias.
4) It fails to understand that alliances are means, not ends.
17
25
147
This is outstanding news. A model for all NATO allies.
BREAKING:
Poland’s military spending in 2024 will amount to 4.2% of GDP.
The military will receive USD 40 billion, of which 56% will be allocated for equipment modernization and purchases of new weapons systems.
🇵🇱
276
1K
12K
8
25
148
"Taiwan lacks a sense of urgency about security reform and investment. Its defense budget has remained below 2 percent for many years and is inadequate to meet the threat." 3/
5
12
142
"Taiwan faces an existential threat but is not responding in a way that suggests that it recognizes and accepts this." 2/
6
7
142
A key problem w/ liberal internationalism & neoconservatism is both tend toward maximalist policy visions & prescriptions that can only succeed under highly favorable conditions, if at all. This is a key reason why both are ill-suited to today's competitive security environment.
2
20
128
I'm very excited to share that today's my first day at
@Heritage
. It's a great privilege to join this outstanding team under
@KevinRobertsTX
's leadership & contribute to its vital work on national security. Eager to get to work!
24
6
133
Wrapping up a trip to Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, and Australia.
All of them are making progress bolstering their defenses. But simply making progress isn’t enough.
We must—all of us—move faster if we’re going to deter China in the next few years.
1/
58
21
134
"But even within the constraints of current budget levels, Taiwan is not getting all it could from its investment…The fact is, the United States spends more preparing to defend Taiwan than Taiwan spends on its defense." 7/
2
18
127
This logic doesn't follow. The idea that Asia's future will be determined in Europe is ridiculous.
Asia's future will be determined in Asia. And it will be determined on the basis of power.
Can we muster the power to deny China's ambitions? If so, we win. If not, China does.
To clarify, the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theatres are co-dependent, especially given Western aims to secure the ‘rules based order’ in Asia. If it cannot be done in Europe, ambitions in the Indo-Pacific will appear hard to realise, which is why China is watching so closely.
9
16
62
6
22
128
Neither Taiwan nor the USA are doing what's required to deter & defeat a PRC invasion.
As a result, we're heading to a point where we may be unable to do so.
Given this reality, we must ask ourselves whether we should fight a war over Taiwan if we're likely to lose.
1/3
23
26
127
Many come to Washington with hopes of changing things, but few succeed.
@ElbridgeColby
is one of those few. His ideas have had an enormous impact & he himself has been a model of courage, integrity & determination.
A profile well done & well-deserved.
41
39
118
...projected to remain under 2 percent. This is comparable to the defense budgets of many NATO allies, but the threat to Taiwan is much graver, and Taiwan lacks the mutual support of an alliance and the operational depth of NATO." 6/
2
8
119
The
@NATO
summit has begun, but officials aren't talking about the single most important problem facing the Alliance today:
The US military can only win a single major war at a time. So long as China is the priority, that means we can't also lead in Europe's defense. 1/
17
40
120
Chiu’s article has a lot of good in it, especially his emphasis on the threat of a Chinese fait accompli:
“China’s intention is to take Taiwan quickly and deny third parties the chance to intervene.”
But it also glosses over some real challenges. 1/7
5
43
109
It's far from clear Ukraine would be able to take Crimea back even w/ increased US military aid. Moreover, even if they could, it's not clear such aid would be in America's interest given tradeoffs vis-a-vis Asia and escalation risk associated w/ this particular offensive.
Ukraine has the troops and the motivation. We have the weapons and munitions. Let’s help Ukraine get the job done once and for all. Liberating Crimea is a must!
Read my latest:
112
262
2K
253
19
110
"In 2021, Taiwan’s defense budget was about $12 billion. This represents a roughly one-third increase since 2016, but this growth reflects growth in Taiwan’s economy rather than shifting priorities." 4/
1
5
111
Risk of a Third World War is growing.
This is due primarily to the overextension of American military power.
If the USA goes to war against China in the Indo-Pacific (e.g., to defend Taiwan), then we will be very limited in our ability to defend NATO.
1/6
76
26
111
In case there was any doubt about Xi's intentions:
"Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided."
70
37
110
Europe must take the lead in arming Ukraine.
This is the only way to ensure Ukraine has what it needs to defend itself & convince Moscow to stop fighting.
This is the path to not just a ceasefire but a durable peace.
Europe is well behind the U.S. in providing Ukraine military support. It is a gross disservice to the American people to send $60 billion more of their money in largely unaccountable aid, especially without Ukraine’s European neighbors stepping up their contributions.
941
59
187
86
22
105
Domino theory has returned & it's just as unhelpful now as it was in the Cold War.
Case in point:
The best way to deter China isn't by showing resolve in Ukraine. It's by hardening our defenses in Asia, so Beijing knows it can't successfully invade Taiwan & shouldn't try.
1/3
China is watching what is happening in Ukraine. And if the United States and other Western countries back off and give Putin what he wants, it’s going to hasten the day that China moves on Taiwan. The best way to discourage China in Taiwan is to give Ukraine what they need to
1K
261
2K
41
15
105
China is the greatest threat to US interests for the foreseeable future.
So we shouldn't resource current ops at the expense of deterring China in the 2030s.
Nor should we focus on the 2030s at the expense of our ability to deter China now. 1/
102
25
105
This is a big part of why so many Americans—and not just Republicans either—are so fed up with the neoliberal consensus.
U.S. foreign policy exists to protect Americans. Not to prop up a liberal world order that's so often come at the expense of their most basic needs.
11
39
101
“It has become increasingly clear that US defense strategy & posture have become insolvent. The tasks that the nation expects its military forces & other elements of national power to do...greatly exceed the means that have become available to accomplish those tasks.” 2/9
1
7
99
Beijing understands what so many in America still dispute: the future of the Indo-Pacific will be decided first and foremost in the military dimension. 1/6
SCOOP –
#China
has stunned US intelligence and military officials by testing a
#nuclear
capable
#hypersonic
missile that traveled through low orbit in space, making a full circle around the globe before speeding towards its target.
602
4K
6K
10
32
97
If Taiwan falls, it will be in substantial part because the United States spent years pouring weapons, money, political capital & other scarce resources into Ukraine at the expense of our ability to arm Taiwan's military & strengthen our own deterrent in the Pacific.
Rather
In an age of rising authoritarianism, defending
#Ukraine
🇺🇦 is vital to protecting
#Taiwan
🇹🇼 from the menacing partnership between
#China
&
#Russia
. Find out in Minister Wu's
@ForeignAffairs
article why the world must join us in our crucial stance against autocratic aggression.
24
114
469
220
21
94
Hubris is talking big in Asia while surging forces to Europe and thinking China won't call our bluff.
China isn't like other enemies in the post-Cold War era. Talk isn't enough. They're deadly serious about ejecting us from Asia. We need to be deadly serious to stop them. 1/2
9
23
96
“Given limited defense resources, Taiwan will have to prioritize some scenarios over others. Taiwan’s leaders may doubt that the PLA will actually invade, just as the leaders of Ukraine doubted Russia would invade in early 2022, but an invasion poses an existential risk... 9/
1
11
96
Brilliant takedown of the horrible idea that Taiwan's fate will be decided in Ukraine. Strong. Succinct. Ruthlessly logical. Highly encourage taking a moment to watch.
It’s just not true that the fate of Taiwan will be settled in Ukraine. How do we know? China’s own behavior.
I lay out why.
If we want to defend Taiwan, be straightforward and focus on defending Taiwan. Don’t engage in tortured, triple-bank shot logic.
119
189
635
16
32
97
I must disagree. Our task is to balance power against China. That means strengthening our own military and economic positions, to be sure. But it also means weakening China's ability to coerce us, incl by degrading its ability to generate and use economic and military leverage.
A useful reminder by
@gideonrachman
of the need for Western policymakers to be clear that their challenge is to manage the continuing rise of China, not to chase after the unachievable goal of preventing its future growth.
16
26
77
13
21
93
...Given the PLA’s buildup [it] is becoming harder to reject the possibility of invasion. When faced with an existential threat [a] country can't afford to gamble. Even if the PRC doesn't currently intend to invade, that can change quickly if it has the ability to invade.” 10/
2
11
94
"In response to the military provocations by the mainland in August 2022, Taiwan sought to increase defense spending in 2023 to almost $14 billion (a 13 percent increase). Even with this increase, the share of gross domestic product (GDP) devoted to the defense budget is... 5/
1
4
91
The NATO Madrid Summit will be an abject failure if it doesn't result in European allies taking primary responsibility for Europe's conventional defense, with a higher defense spending threshold to support that new division of labor. 2% is not enough.
NATO to increase rapid response forces from up to 40,000 to “well over 300,000” troops in “biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defence since the Cold War.”
The effect of Putin’s counterproductive foreign policy has been astounding!
#NATO
5
27
75
6
21
93
European ships in the Pacific will do little to change the military balance of power there. Much better for European navies to focus on Europe (and the Middle East), so the United States can focus more of its attention eastward. Pure symbolism only goes so far now.
17
21
89
We just can't bet on having the luxury to do everything everywhere like we have for decades. It's this very habit of spreading ourselves thin & losing sight of the ball that's allowed things to deteriorate so badly in the Pacific as it is.
So we must prioritize. 9/9
12
8
89
“Especially in the case of China, speed is of the essence. We do not know [if Beijing yet has] confidence in the [PLA's] ability to prevail in a major conflict with Taiwan & the USA, but the US defense establishment has surely not done enough to deny them that confidence." 6/9
1
9
89
"Similarly, Taiwan’s mobilized reserve forces will need to be ready, able to muster, and immediately combat capable, but current training and equipping of conscripts and reserve units are insufficient to prepare them for such roles." 18/
7
4
85
“U.S. forces, posture, and operational concepts over the past two decades have remained an essentially static and predictable target against which China has developed increasingly potent threats.” 7/9
1
11
87
@RANDCorporation
isn't alone in its conclusions.
@Heritage
came to similar findings last year.
We can't keep waving this away. The gaps are real as is the danger. This is why so many of us argue so strongly to focus on restoring deterrence in Asia. 8/9
1
11
87
I don't want China to dominate any industries that matter.
I don't want China to control any supply chains Americans depend on.
I don't want China's military to be able to push us out of Asia.
Competition is fine, but I want us to win.
None of this should be controversial.
14
10
86
Why is the representative of a genocidal regime (the Chinese Communist Party) shooting free throws at a Wizards game?
How disgusting.
This man is not a friend. He and his Party want to see America weakened, our people cowed.
Yet again, the NBA puts profits over principle.
Tried my first throw at an NBA game
@WashWizards
. Also renewed our special relationship as Washington Wizards was the first NBA team to visit China in 1979 when our two countries established diplomatic relationship.
393
177
1K
7
16
87
The idea that we can deter China by winning in Ukraine does not make sense.
Not only do key aspects of US involvement in Ukraine threaten our ability to deny a Chinese invasion, thereby imperiling deterrence by denial.
Arguments about US resolve just don't add up. 1/7
This is correct. Also, our abandoning Ukraine will hasten Chinese action against Taiwan.
33
8
117
22
22
83
“Taiwan has embraced the rhetoric of asymmetric warfare, but its budget reflects a preference for legacy systems.” 13/
1
5
85
“The F-16 program is conspicuous for lack of survivability & high costs, which will continue as long as the aircraft are in service. Devoting such a large fraction of the defense budget to capabilities ill suited to the existential threat of an invasion is hard to justify.” 14/
2
3
86
It's deeply ironic for allies to criticize the USA for not doing enough when
(1) they're the ones who spent the last 20+ years freeriding &
(2) they show little sign of doing more than the bare minimum now.
Europe needs to get its house in order.
The international community resolutely stands with Ukraine.
The EU Council’s new €50bn multi-year funding package is excellent news. We will continue to work together on this shared priority.
We now need our US allies to follow and unlock vital support for the Ukrainian people
793
249
1K
16
21
84
"Submarines are also expensive to build and operate, so they will consume a large share of Taiwan’s small defense budget. There are much cheaper ways to sink ships." 16/
3
3
83
Taiwan’s NDR “specifies both gray-zone and nonconventional actions. It does not explicitly identify an invasion as a threat…Taiwan officials have expressed to many visitors concern about economic coercion and tend to regard the possibility of invasion as remote.” 8/
1
4
83
The USA should seek a favorable balance of power against China.
Part of that is growing our military & economic power. Part of it is weakening China in ways that advance US interests.
It's time to stop aiding China's rise & focus on degrading its ability to coerce others.
10
15
74
...And herein lies the nub of the problem: Neither today’s force nor forces currently programmed by the U.S. Department of Defense appear to have the capabilities needed to execute this new approach [to defeat Chinese aggression].” 5/9
2
7
78
Senator Hawley is leading efforts to arm Taiwan as quickly as possible.
Chairman Milley endorsed this approach yesterday:
"With respect to deterring China and Taiwan, I think Senator Hawley hit it right on the head. The best defense of Taiwan is done by the Taiwanese…
5
20
78
Our European allies should be watching closely.
The American people are increasingly skeptical of aid to Ukraine. Their representatives are shifting in the same direction. These trends appear to be durable.
This means it will almost certainly be increasingly difficult for the
NEW: A sobering reality is setting in on Capitol Hill — as of this moment, there remains no viable/clear path to passing more Ukraine aid.
GOP Sen. Tillis, who wants a multi-year Ukraine commitment: “This whole debate — I mean, it’s BS.”
w/
@bresreports
68
66
164
19
20
78
“U.S. and coalition forces simply cannot count on having the time they would need to deploy to the theater and fight to gain dominance in key domains before attacking the enemy’s invasion force at scale... 4/9
3
6
77
America is not the arsenal of democracy it once was.
We don’t have enough weapons as it is for our own forces.
The idea that we can aid Ukraine without impacting Taiwan is a fantasy.
It’s Ukraine *or* Taiwan. Not both.
WSJ reports flow of weapons to Ukraine has exacerbated a $19B backlog of weapons for Taiwan
Kirby wouldn't confirm a backlog--talking about specific shipments "is never a good idea"
But he told me "it's a balancing act," and admin is "judiciously monitoring stocks" of weapons.
4
15
30
14
19
76
“Over the past 15 years, analysts have published many urgent recommendations to improve Taiwan’s defense outlook...The sense of urgency stems from assessments of Taiwan’s legacy military, which [is] not suited to defending against a major PLA assault... 11/
2
5
78
Taiwanese officials continue to show a lack of good judgment by dragging themselves into the US debate over aid to Ukraine.
This can only raise serious questions about Taiwan's understanding of US politics & commitment to its own defense. 1/8
@TECRO_USA
“Taiwan’s national-security leaders warn that reduced U.S. aid to Ukraine would heighten Taiwanese concerns about American resolve.”
36
90
260
27
29
77
The view from Asia isn't any better than it is from Washington. There's a broad consensus that things are getting worse, and it's far from clear that we're all moving fast enough to deter China. There's also real concern in the region about Taiwan's willingness to fight. 1/2
13
8
79
NATO allies must therefore assume primary responsibility for the conventional defense of Europe.
IOW, Europe must remilitarize. This will require substantially increased defense spending, esp. by the region's economic giants (e.g. Germany).
But that's the price of peace.
5/6
9
10
76
NATO is a military alliance. Its leader shouldn't be surprised that large-scale conventional war is still a very real threat.
Yes, cyber and other things matter. But Putin isn't using gray zone tactics to seize Ukraine. He's using maneuver forces.
‘Peace on our continent has been shattered. We now have war in Europe on a scale and of a type we thought belonged to history,’ said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as he condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine
67
277
967
2
25
77
"Taiwan currently intends to field eight [indigenous submarines]. At any given time, at least two of these will be in port...The submarines have a finite complement of weapons. Their capacity to influence an invasion is limited by their magazine and their slow speeds." 15/
1
3
76
“[US all-domain military] superiority is gone, surely with respect to China but in significant ways with respect to the forces of other, less powerful adversaries as well, and it is not coming back.” 3/9
2
6
74
THE BLOB: The best way to deter China is by strengthening deterrence in...Europe!
COMMON SENSE: Wait, if we're trying to deter China, which is located in Asia, then shouldn't we focus on strengthening deterrence...in Asia?
BLOB: No! Trust us. We've been right so many times.
42
14
75
I understand ADM Aquilino’s desire to avoid showing weakness. Things are so bad China might attack Taiwan pre-2027 if it sees an opening. There’s also pressure to stick to Admin talking points.
But some of his remarks seem to contradict facts we already know to be true. 1/16
13
21
71
As a reminder, if the USA goes to war against Russia, then you can basically kiss Taiwan goodbye.
The US military isn't sized for 2 major conflicts.
If we get tied down in Europe, risk of deterrence failure vs China skyrockets & likelihood we can defeat PRC invasion plummets.
39
13
74
"Some published accounts based on interviews with Taiwan service members raise concerns about the manning levels of combat units, some of which are estimated to have only 60 percent to 80 percent of their desired force levels." 17/
1
3
74
An outstanding read and valuable corrective to those who try to link America's actions over Ukraine to our credibility in Asia.
Hard power is the currency in question. We must reserve it for the theater that matters most.
Canberra, Tokyo, New Delhi and key ASEAN capitals are growing worried about US distraction. To safeguard US credibility and strategic position in the Indo-Pacific, Biden must continue to act with restraint in Ukraine.
My latest for
@ForeignPolicy
12
56
140
3
25
72
But we can only fight one major war at a time, and in most cases, our allies aren't ready to pick up the slack. So if deterrence fails & US forces go to war in any single theater, risk of opportunistic aggression by adversaries in other theaters goes up significantly. 2/
6
10
70
We have long associated "escalate to de-escalate" or "escalate to win" with Russian nuclear doctrine.
It is increasingly clear that China is pursuing a similar approach.
The USA must plan accordingly to deter China from engaging in limited nuclear war.
3
13
68
Biden committed the USA to defend Taiwan at the same time as he's sending tens of thousands of troops and tens of billions of dollars to Europe with nothing remotely analogous for Asia.
He says one thing but does another thing entirely. This is inviting Chinese aggression.
10
11
66
In some ways, the wars in Ukraine & Israel today are harbingers of far worse to come. But I think we can still avoid that outcome—if the USA & its allies move quickly to strengthen deterrence across theaters on a sustainable basis. 4/
6
11
69
Now, what if Taiwan surged defense spending, invested in asymmetric capabilities, and accelerated defense reforms like it was really at risk of being invaded in the next few years?
TAIWAN SAID ON SUNDAY THAT CHINA DEPLOYED AS MANY AS 66 WARPLANES AND 14 WARSHIPS IN THE NEARBY AREAS WITH 22 AIRCRAFTS CROSSING THE LINE DIVIDING THE TAIWAN STRAIT. - SOURCES
40
107
542
13
12
67
It's a testament to how much the U.S. military's advantage in Asia has eroded that there's so much concern about Speaker Pelosi's proposed trip to Taiwan.
This would be much less of an issue if we hadn't wasted so many years neglecting our deterrent posture in the Indo-Pacific.
3
13
68
...Although many good ideas have been suggested, Taiwan continues to prioritize investment in legacy capabilities.” 12/
1
3
66
No.
Today's meeting changed none of the underlying factors driving US-PRC tensions, above all China's growing power coupled with its hegemonic ambitions.
For peace on favorable terms, we must balance power against PRC. Only then can we reliably deter or defeat PRC coercion.
Kudos to the US and PRC for pulling off such a constructive meeting in Bali. Dare we hope that the Biden-Xi meeting marks the first signs of an inflection point that begins to decelerate the spiral towards conflict and makes room for tackling common challenges? A short thread:
50
209
850
9
11
65
The phrase "a sustainable basis" is key. It means we can't keep relying on the US to be everywhere at once—for the simple reason that we can't. So our allies must step up in all theaters, but especially in Europe. 5/
7
11
64
In the end, we find ourselves in a situation where a Third World War is not only thinkable but a danger with which we must seriously reckon.
Let this not be a time future historians look back on as a period in which we refused to see the dangers before us until it was too late.
46
9
65
Today's my last day in
@HawleyMO
's office. It's been a great privilege to serve under his leadership & as part of such a great team. I'm excited for the next chapter & look forward to continuing work to protect Americans' security, freedom & prosperity in the years ahead.
13
2
62
How to Do Less in Ukraine:
1) Don't send weapons to Ukraine that Taiwan also needs until Taiwan's needs are met.
2) Prioritize Taiwan over UKR where both rely on the same suppliers.
3) Limit operational support (eg ISR) to UKR that's also required for deterrence in Asia.
1/4
152
8
60
The USA should not be keeping tens of thousands of extra troops in Europe.
It's unnecessary given the diminished Russian military threat to NATO.
It disincentivizes European actors from doing more for themselves.
And it detracts from US defense resources available for Asia.
5
6
62
It is not "isolationist" to say we need to do less in Europe, so we can focus more of our scarce resources on China in the Indo-Pacific.
Nor is it Russian talking points.
It's just smart.
War Is Interested in You, Even if You’re an Isolationist Conservative. An old tendency on the right sees a resurgence even as Russian and Chinese threats rise:
7
11
29
9
12
61
It is deeply concerning that the Administration keeps increasing US force levels in Europe. If anything, Russia's dismal performance & severe losses in Ukraine should make it easier to reduce US troop levels in Europe, not least so we can focus more on deterring China in Asia.
President Biden has authorized the military to call up 3,000 reserve troops to support operations in Europe after tens of thousands were sent there last year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a top general said today.
51
55
80
14
13
59
"He who defends everything, defends nothing."
- Frederick the Great
"We will prioritize the Indo-Pacific, Europe & the Western Hemisphere."
- The Biden Administration
🤔
I think I found my favorite quote in the
#FY25NavyBudget
Highlights Books:
"The NSS [National Security Strategy] prioritizes Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere"
No really, it says that on page 10-3
@salisbot
@cgberube
@ConsWahoo
2
6
23
8
18
62
Arm Taiwan now.
Can’t stress this enough. Anti ship missiles kill the big things on the ocean, javelins kill the approaching amphib assault vessels, small craft, vehicles ashore. Stingers deny PLAAF air superiority until carriers are on station and PLA ASBMs suppressed.
1
6
45
3
13
58
NATO's future depends on Europeans doing far more for themselves.
At this rate, Trump seems to be the only US leader capable of convincing them to do so.
So if Europeans do step up, Trump will deserve a lot of credit for making NATO an effective alliance again.
It's pretty clear what 🇪🇺 has to do: spend more on defence capabilities. Fast. Most Germans & some other Europeans were lulled by false sense of security of grandfather Biden taking care of us for too long. So however outrageous, Trump's statements may have positive side-effect.
4
2
26
15
12
61
Our goal should be to get to a place where US, allied, and partner forces are reliably capable of deterring & defeating enemy aggression in the main theaters, with US forces focused first on China, since it's the greatest threat to US interests. 6/
7
10
56
This is a very dangerous moment.
Wars in Europe & the Middle East.
America's military overextended.
The Biden administration all but begging China not to invade Taiwan.
This is really, really concerning stuff.
*Huge* opportunity for Beijing.
"Biden, beset by conflicts, is seeking to steady his fraught relationship with Xi so [he] can focus its energy on Israel, Ukraine and the reelection campaign, according to three senior administration officials." 1/
45
109
301
10
15
57