Alec Bertina
@bertina_alec
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International Security MA UEA (2022) | Journalist & Conflict Analyst @MilitantWire | OSINT Collection
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Opinion piece by me focusing on the counter productive nature of Russia torturing the suspects of the Crocus City Hall attack, with reason to believe this being based on lessons learned from GWOT
#OpEd
The brutal treatment of detainees might play well at home. But if the War on Terror has taught us anything, it could backfire on Russia, warns
@bertina_alec
.
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Swiss neutrality convinently never exists in regards to housing Russian money in their banks or allowing Silovoki to have their children in expensive Swiss boarding schools. Funny how selective that neutrality is, isn't it?
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Gotta be the best example of horseshoe theory I've seen.
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With another wave of cruise missile attacks all over UA causing power outages and civilian deaths, one has to question what it will take for the West to realise that UA can't defend itself against RU state terror without long-range strike capabilities that hit RU launch positions
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Got blocked by
@scharap
for posting a screenshot of one of his old articles under his newer Foreign Affairs article. This has made me a very sad panda and I hope someone picks up the gauntlet and does the same.
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We've reached head of Roskosmos arguing with anime profile person on X level of stuff. Fascinating times
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Another journalist who thinks he can outsmart a state that's highly selective and intelligent in its distortion of informational environments that is giving him access to film his documentary. Hint: He won't be able to outsmart said state.
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Russian nuclear signalling in response to Western aid:
1) Announce a new form of aid as a redline
2) Indirect nuclear threats made through state-controlled media figures
3) Vaguely worded ominous Russian spokesperson statement about nuclear war being on the horizon
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The claim that the US somehow wanted this invasion to occur so it can 'bleed Russia' is strange in that:
1) The US and its allies actively worked to prevent it
2) That the US did not think UA would survive an invasion at all, meaning they did not believe RU could be 'bled'
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Just because we focus on the military grade aid Ukraine gets doesn't mean that other forms of aid aren't helpful too. Case and point some aid which will help replenish damaged/lost transport. Though knowing Ukrainian ingeniunity, they could somehow make them military hardware.
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Julian if you think Ukraine would have survived this invasion without there being significant preparedness, planning and competence you are living in a parallel reality. Mistakes were made by UA authorities, but ones only seasoned analysts, mil experts and insiders could identify
One year ago, a mix of unpreparedness, incompetence, & high treason led to Russian invasion forces not just passing many Ukrainian border crossings unhindered, but also advancing up to 120 km into central Ukraine without facing any resistance.
Thank God, Ukraine woke up that day.
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@faineg
You know it is bad when even the wolf warrior diplomacy assets are judging your professionalism
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@neil_abrams
@aaronjmate
Aaron operates on spin and semantics, dashed with some spin and straight-up disinformation. He doesn't operate in good faith, takes sources out of context or tries to make out that they support a view of his that they don't. His readers fall for it and lap it up every time though
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Enough accounts to confirm this sort of thing to be true. The idea Wagner was unique in its treatment of personnel seen as 'more disposable' is not necessarily true at all. MoD alligned formations are equally prone to coercing personnel into highly deadly assault infantry roles
1/ Mobilised Russians who joined the 'Wolves' mercenary group say they are being threatened with execution if they don't go to the front line, despite being untrained. They have not been rotated for months due to manpower shortages caused by huge casualties. ⬇️
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8) RU officials also state to their public "These weapons sent by the West are not even a game changer, who cares. We even destroyed them on arrival already"
9) Usual cohort of analysts "You've sent X already escalating risk, but sending Y will really be the end"
10) Repeat
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4) Usual circuit of analysts and think tankers repeat "if Russia loses the war in a conventional sense, it will resort to unconventional tools such as nuclear weapons"
5) Fierce debate ensues
6) Aid gets sent eventually anyway
7) Russia doesn't follow through on threats
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Russia is inadverently going to give them the martyr status they need with these sort of actions, making recruitment for extremist groups easier (not harder). Just like how Abu Ghraib torture aided terrorist recruitment too.
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Imagine being a PhD candidate and falling for Wagner Group's propaganda. The VDV, LNR/DNR forces and RU regulars were actively involved in this operation in Bakhmut too. Also that 'motley band of PMCs' didn't just have convicts but one of the most well-equipped soldiers RU has.
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@rochowanski
Is there any specific source you read regarding the claim that Russia and Ukraine negotiated a withdrawal of Russian forces in Kherson?
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Wagner isn't a corporate entity, it works on behalf of the Russian state and is likely financed in large part through the Russian state budget. It wouldn't have been able to establish itself in Serbia without the permission of the Serbian government. This should warrant concern.
The longer the media talk about Wagner as a PMC, the longer the Kremlin will be able to push this narrative that helps Moscow's goals. Establishing a Russian military-linked Wagner presence in Serbia is not possible without a green light from the Serbian leadership.
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This sh*t is so fake even the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs took it down eventually after posting it. Geolocated to occupied territory in Donetsk, sticker doesnt match what Ukrainian military vehicles are normally marked with cross wise.
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Meanwhile, we are supposed to also believe that this very same man would be willing to negotiate on reasonable terms for a settlement, rather than just repeating the same maximalist demands he's maintained since the beginning of the invasion.
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I am fairly sure what we are seeing happening in UA right now is a vindication of how Obama didn't approach this issue or many other foreign policy ones effectively. He was neither proactive in scaling down COIN operations in MENA nor continuing them, nor deterring RU.
Remember what
@BarackObama
said re Ukraine: it's obviously NOT a core western interest worth fighting Russia over
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None is the wiser after these rounds of debates in the West. The self-preservation of RU elites and Putin is always deliberately ignored. Putin is seen as about as risk-averse as a suicide bomber who if he loses in UA, will nuke the world and self-immolate himself in the process
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Can't be restated enough; Unless Putin faces significant instability in the areas of society which are most pivotal to his power because of Russian performance in Ukraine, there's no hope that he will take a peace deal.
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@polidemitolog
@Marielle_W_
This made me laugh, just the most bizarre thing I've ever seen haha
@steven_seegel
As Monsieur Galeev continues to question the credentials of Russian scholars on the Twitter, let’s recall that time when Steven Seegel asked him a perfectly valid question.
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@KelleyBVlahos
You're framing an objective framing issue as one of military capabilities and organisation. The US army absolutely obliterated Iraqi army. What made the US fail in Iraq was the lack of foresight as to an insurgency forming and how to fight one. Objective-framing was the problem.
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These sorts of videos coming out from Storm Z personnel should emphasise what the unit really is, a meat dispensary of disposable forces. Unlike Wagner's convicts, these personnel are more poorly trained and even less supported.
1/ Members of a Russian penal unit who say they've lost 73% of their unit fighting in Ukraine and lack food, water and ammo have now been disarmed completely and dumped in an abandoned building. Their relatives say they are defenceless and "waiting to be slaughtered." ⬇️
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@JimmySecUK
Igor Girkin himself is begging for Russian Air Force to take out HIMARS, Ceasers and other systems, which in his own words are causing large losses to equipment and personal. Clearly 1) Overestimating the capabilities that RU AF has 2) Underestimating the AA near these systems.
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@dampfer_der
Housing the blood money of the Russian elite and then refusing to supply weapons to save the people dying because of that very same elite is horrifying. I am sure plenty of Swiss people such as yourself see just how absurd this neutrality is morally.
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@shashj
They hit it with their own stuff though. Its an expensive and legitimate target hit with their own OWA drone that inflicts additional costs on the prosecution of the invasion
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@nikola_mikovic
Not a mercenary, but a person with a UA passport fighting within the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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Destroying VKS aircraft with real personnel during fake mutinies is actually a 5D chess move
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TASS is actually doing proper journalism. It only took a coup 😍
The TASS Russian state photo agency is posting some pretty intense photos of the Rostov Situation right now
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Very interesting article. Striking to read that Gerasimov made direct interventions to stop the transporting of ammunition from Russia to the Wagner Group, as well as how little support Putin gave to Prigozhin when he appealed to him for help
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Militarily, it is an absurd way to force UA to fight to defend its territory and skies. There's also only so much risk aversion that can be practised before the goal of conflict termination with UA victory is drastically undermined. States are slow to see this, unfortunately.
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Deputy Defense Minister "I am going to request your men leave". Prigozhin "No, that is not happening under any circumstances". What did I just watch?
I think this video, which just appeared, helps settle some of the confusion on forces involved. That said, the conversation is remarkable. And this is happening barely a day later.
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I know it can be very uplifting to talk about how awful Wagner personnel are at fighting, but at their professional element level it just isn't true. They are near peer to Western forces and would be peer if they didn't have such limited airpower and ISR capabilities.
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You can literally see he was unarmed and standing in a ditch dug for his execution, what is 'could be' about it being a war crime
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@polidemitolog
I found it astounding that even after the invasion, the penny hasn't dropped that their neighbours are not this uniform collection of Russophobes but merely absolutely terrified of Russia and the attitude it has towards them. The disingenuous self-victimisation is truly palpable.
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Yeah, this is the state that was suggested as a very serious meditator for a settlement by many. The statement on a settlement was fluff and this here is what the actual stance from Beijing is
Chinese drone manufacturer Xi'an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology has agreed to manufacture and test 100 kamikaze drones, before delivering them to the Russian military, der Speigel reports
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Russian state claims that they are fighting something remotely akin to an existential war over gradual Western encroachment on its border looks incredibly bizarre when it cannot even prevent small raiding parties from crossing the border and establishing positions.
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The world will soon learn that there is no clean break from counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations, even if states want to desperately pivot to an overwhelming focus on Great Power Competition. States do not always get to pick their fights, sometimes fights pick them
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The approach still seems to be enabling gentle prods to push RU closer to a settlement rather than capitulation, a byproduct of risk aversion. However, UA's capped RoE when using foreign aid and no long-range capabilities force it to sustain these attacks by RU.
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ISKP and ISIS are not the same people, please stop using them interchangably!!!
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@IronErnst
@Euan_MacDonald
You'd be onto something if it wasn't for the fact that this building you see burning is used for the construction of spacecraft parts and parts with military application.
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Crying because a nation gets more aid to defend itself.
The Pentagon identified ANOTHER accounting “mistake” that will allow them to send $2 billion in new military aid to Ukraine without any approval from Congress. This exact same thing happened last year. Such a weird coincidence!
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"ISIS-K and I have a mutual understanding" is not a start for a tweet I'd think I would read to be honest.
Isis-k and I have a mutual understanding. They don't bother me and I won't bother them. That's about to change
They ruined my lovely hike. I'm declaring TID (total ISIS death).
Your days are numbered ISIS chuds, go fuck a goat, it may be your last chance before I FUCK YOU
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Fascinating insight as to how the head of the security department for the Russian state-owned "Russian Railways" is sponsoring the Espanola paramilitary unit, with the blessing of Arkady and Boris Rotenberg
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Why didn't sending artillery systems mean this was a Western war against Russia? Or IFVs? Was the US at war with the Soviets when it supplied the Muhjadeen? It seems what a war really means has now devolved into a poststructuralist definitional plaything.
Sending tanks to Ukraine makes one thing clear: this is now a western war against Russia | Martin Kettle
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@squatsons
It can't patrol the sea to secure logistics, nor can it station military intelligence personnel/assets. None of that is good for Russia
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People still seem to fundamentally misunderstand the American lend-lease weapons program. By design, it is supposed to only start coming into effect in the July/August period. That doesn't mean weapons aren't coming now though.
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To clarify, I think the US and its allies could have - and should have - done more to deter the invasion and prep UA for it. However, my point here is enough actions were taken to show US did not see any utility to itself arising from the invasion (to bleed RU for example).
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Some will say cruise missiles are running out. First, the evidence for that isn't fault proof nor should such an assumption govern current responses by the West to help UA. Secondly, RU could find new suppliers to mitigate that issue. Lastly, UA's assigned RoE is still an issue.
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What is highly bizarre about this particular statement here is that it was already made before Russia's offensive last winter. Not only was there no real significant difference in the ability to adjust to the winter between both sides, but RU soldiers were getting hypothermia too
But creme de la creme comes in last paragraph where WaPo source uses power of magical thinking in Socratian excercise musing about druid buffs that russians magically get in winter since, as is known, ukrainians have very little experience with winter in Ukraine
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Maybe a concensus on different lines in D.C around UA isn't down to the repression of counter narratives but due to the fact they are not compelling. You aren't entitled to your less popular policy preference on an active conflict being heeded by elected officials.
There is a disturbing aspect to the discourse in Washington, D.C., and European capitals surrounding the war in Ukraine that seeks to quash any dissent from the official narrative surrounding NATO’s military support for Ukraine.
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There is an implicit secondary effect that commentators doing this are creating. If you definitively state all recent attacks on RU soil is a false flag, you begin to make Ukrainian operations on RU soil a taboo. This in turns shapes norms that constrain UA operational autonomy
After Putin's FSB blew up buildings in Moscow, pinning it on Chechens, there is no reason whatsoever to believe these attacks were the work of Ukraine.
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Lastly, RU's supposed red lines have been crossed with no real consequence, suggesting perhaps the risk aversion pursued by some may be too excessive. This should be factored in to UA aid responses but doesn't seem to in the context of UA RoE and providing aid.
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@squatsons
Replicate that enough time and Russia loses its survelliance, logistical and intelligence gathering capabilities. A degraded fleet would also mean less places where cruise missiles and drone attacks can be launched from and freer passage of Ukrainian commercial maritime vessels
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RoE = Rules of Engagement. I am referring here to the idea that Western-provided aid cannot be used to strike targets within RU, which has been a condition for aid delivered to Ukraine. The post argues this makes little military or strategic sense for the West to make UA abide by
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Some information that at least starts to capture the scale of damage from the destruction of the dam and the implications this has on surrounding Ukrainian areas. The estimate by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food figures indicates a real food security crisis occurring.
Regardless of how russians destroyed this dam, it is undeniably clear that the russia bears full responsibility for this incident. The true magnitude of this catastrophe has yet to be fully comprehended.
However, as reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, the
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Does everyone who writes for the Jacobin act this ignorant? DU rounds are used by UA because far more Ukrainians are going to die if Russian forces will keep pillaging Ukraine, than will ever suffer from the effects of DU. Also is RU using DU rounds too unimportant to mention?
How is contaminating Ukrainian land, incl. that on which prospective liberated Ukrainians live on, with stuff that's caused years of disease & birth defects supposed to be good for the country, beyond the escalatory concerns? Any pushback to this madness?
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I have read article titles you would not believe
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Okay he's former head of Roskosmos but is currently a politician. He also liked his own response....
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Turkey and the rest of Europe completely called Russia's bluff when it came to reneging on the grain deal, so now they are forced to return to it to save face and pretend they didn't just get outfoxed by Erdogan, Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
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This is a very funny tweet. Think-tanker brain in action
I'm concerned that when people talk about the correlation between a country being in NATO and Russia not attacking that country, we need to think about what makes deterrence work in a holistic way.
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Extremely weird headline. Israel is fighting possibly the weakest group that the Iranians support and Ukraine is fighting the second/third most powerful military in the world. Their needs are not remotely comparable nor are both without the need for foreign aid.
"Ukrainians are like kids, waiting for someone to save us. Israelis are more like adults"
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This is 100% correct and arguably goes to show that the main thing that could have prevented all of this was a faster timeline for the provision of existing aid. Had this aid come in a more concentrated time-frame Ukraine would have been able to avoid dealing with certain issues.
@ChrisO_wiki
People say minefields and fortifications, however none of those were unknown factors to people planning the operation. I watched them being planted there for months.
That sounds more like a planning failure and inability to correctly assess the resources and capabilities
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It is just pretty good diplomacy/FP from Ukraine. If Xi doesn't turn up, it does not make him look like the impartial mediator he is trying to come across. If he does turn up, it is an uncomfortable situation for RU. Plus it shows Kyiv is open to diplomatic input from anyone.
Brace for tsunami of westoid copium
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Pleased to say that
@LucasADWebber
and I wrote something that got published for The Jamestown Foundation on the Russian Imperial Movement and its involvement in the widened invasion of Ukraine.
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Very possible he is privy to information that I am not, but this is the same man who was talking about the fact that UA would be unable to operate effectively during winter conditions. Hard to see whether there's something we don't know or that he is simply inclined to pessimism
Mark Milley, the top US general still believes that the war will not be won by either side on the battlefield. Russia, he said to the FT, will not achieve its military means. And Ukr too. “It would require essentially the collapse of the Rus mil.”
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@GravitysRa1nbow
There's dynamics that were set in motion in Russia after this that cannot be reversed anymore. I don't think there's a happy ending long term for Putin's Russia here
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@vanillatary
People keep using Bush-era claims about Iraq as a historical heuristic to suggest all intel and claims by the US concerning the actions of other countries are wrong and inevitably got caught out with the invasion of Ukraine by RU. Shows the importance of non-systemised thinking
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After Prigozhin's 'conflict' with Kadyrov and his commanders, Wagnerite 'creatives' began to proliferate pictures such as this. The caption says "Grozny 2000, We can repeat it"
После конфликта Пригожина с подручными Кадырова "вагнеровские" креативщики стали распространять в соцсетях такие картинки.
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Making a new OSINT account which will intentionally post Arma 3 game footage as real conflict footage. Will use it to deliberately push the most far-fetched narratives around conflicts around the world.
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This is adding immense amounts of pressure on the Ukrainian army in ways that may inflate expectations that will not match results. We don't know just how much territory will be retaken, but this sort of discourse sets up abstract assumptions that may be problematic to create.
Nobody has all the details but one thing is clear: this counteroffensive will rewrite military history.
#Ukraine
has stuff in the pipeline the Russians will never see coming. And much of what they do see coming, they won’t be able to stop anyway.
#SpringIsComing
🇺🇦
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Rusich (who are close to but not a part of elements of Wagner) have their own take on the downed plane. "Let this be a lesson to all. You always have to go to the end." This like refers to the mutiny attempt.
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Naftali Bennett got played by Putin, and his falling for Putin's promise not to kill Zelensky is just one example of that. Bennett, whose inclination was to take Putin at his word, is evidently not well suited for 'mediating' a tangible negotiation that anyone could 'disrupt'
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@EeldenDen
He's gotten tired of breaking UN Arms Embargoes for General Khalifa Haftar and now is playing heroic advocate.
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Interesting thread on CJNG
San Juan Nuevo Parangarícutiro thread. "We're coming tor you, etc."
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I always like to temper the notion that the RU army is seconds away from collapse, but it is clear that a lack of specialists is becoming more of a problem than the amount of available equipment is. On the latter, it is more true that equipment gets older and in worse condition.
@UAWeapons
That strike killed the T-90M commander, a cement loader called up for mobilization last September.
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@GerardAraud
When you say we should have understood and acted accordingly, what do you mean by that exactly Gerard?The Russian state isn't a nebulous entity with no free will, it chose to violate an agreement and international law for political reasons based on false geo-historical pretexts
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Drones will not provide armour to assist infantry advances. Also, both sides have Electronic Warfare at their disposal that make the environment less permissive for drones. Whilst drones add a new dimesion, they certainly don't make 'combined arms dead'
Nobody is unobserved, and any column on the move is targeted within a few minutes. $300 drones can outrun any tank. The new reality of the Ukrainian war — and whether it means that the U.S. military doctrine of combined arms maneuver is becoming obsolete.
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This statement is so crass and implausible that one has to acknowledge that Putin is not only happy to let everyone know he signed off on his death, but that he has no regrets or sentiments about doing so.
Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.
Seems legit, definitely no further questions about that incident, we can all move on
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@KeirGiles
@ALanoszka
This is very interesting but it isn't unlike certain groups to take credit for the things not necessarily done by them. Also, this is a great ability for certain groups opposed to the Russian state to inflate their image of lethality and power to attract supporters
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This is indeed real, I have talked with the lizards on Telegram
🚨 Our team has been researching the case about large lizard-like creatures roaming around in Belgorod and Donbas, and we believe that they could have originated from the Kharkiv Biotechnological Laboratory nr. 2, a soviet-era research facility near Chugiv
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As always, a helpful set of updates regarding the effects Russia is facing from the war by the
@CITeam_en
. Continual trend of personnel coming home from the front and committing crimes. Also notable incidents of people dodging sentences through enlistment
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Wagner is behind everything guys. You heard it here first. Please grow up and do your job properly.
Given the sophistication of the
#Hammas
attack into Israel - beyond anything they have done before and Russia courting Iran over Ukraine - I detect the hand of the Russian GRU and
#HezbollahTerrorists
working with
#Hamasterrorists
possibly utilising Wagner
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The human waves are used to locate the positions of Ukrainian defending personnel whilst their attacks are monitored by Wagner DJI and Orlan UAVs. Wagner professionals then plan attacks based on that information that are far more likely to be effective.
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