Benjamin Robinson
@benj_robinson
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Cincinnati expat/D.C. local, proud Jew/bagel lover, @jon_m_rob clone/uncle-in-chief, @GrindingMocks creator/ex- @fboutsiders contributor, YNWA/ATOBTTR/H2P/FTFO.
Washington, DC
Joined June 2013
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Pinned Tweet
What he said...
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This was my most controversial chart of the 2020 NFL draft: Draft Capital Over Expected (
#GrindingTheMocks
Expected Draft Position vs. Actual Draft Slot) by team in the 2021 NFL draft. Low doesn't mean your team is bad only that their drafting process might be questionable!
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Good afternoon, all! Thanks for following along during the NFL Draft and the whole draft process for some. Here are the final total and avg Draft Surplus Value charts for each team! If you want to see a specific team's charts, let me know and I'll tweet it here.
#GrindingtheMocks
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honeybadgeR?
As the game begins to change, as a player it’s important to incorporate analytics in your study. Some teams use it more than others but it can give you the opportunity as a defender to get ahead of the offense.. make more plays… critical situations…. Bigger impact.
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Just remember, pretty much everyone who's telling you Zach Wilson stinks was telling you how great he was during the draft process in 2021. Heck, look at the Consensus Big Board. Everyone loves to play draft revisionist history!
This is very important to note. Talked a little bit about QB myth-making on the draft pod this week, but Wilson's film was about as clear as it could get: big project, tons of non-NFL reps, tons of limitations.
Important when we look at how the NFL sells QB prospects this year!
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Cowboys led the draft in Total Surplus Value, second on Average so you know I loved it! 4 top 100 EDP players and another CB at around EDP. The best WR in the draft by EDP to help Dak. A R1 CB in R2. A R2 DT in R3. Can't say enough good things.
#GrindingtheMocks
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Top 5 "Value" Picks of Round 1, comparing EDP to Actual Draft Position:
1. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama - NE
2. Christian Darrisaw, OT, VATech - MIN
3. Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan - IND
4. Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern - LAC
5. Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
#GrindingTheMocks
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@JoeGoodberry
He's probably the best soccer player of all time and one of the most famous people in the world.
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Patriots are back to drafting fundamentally well! Mac Jones, Christian Barmore, and Ronnie Perkins to round out Days 1 and 2. Gimme some!
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I'm starting to see a trend here...
#GrindingTheMocks
Another player who's stock, while still relatively high, might have made a good decision to return to school for a senior season! Definitely a downward trend as the season went on playing in the big shadow of Marvin Harrison Jr.!
#GrindingTheMocks
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It's that time again! Draft Capital Over Expected (DCOE) on average for each team in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Panthers get a lot of positive DCOE for drafting Ikem Ekwonu at 6 when
@GrindingMocks
ranked him 3rd. Biggest surprise, though? The Seahawks on the positive side for once!
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Warren Sharp: the least interesting man in sports analytics (and the football equivalent of a snake oil salesman).
Every gambler tries to see the future. Warren Sharp might be the only one who also helps shape it. My Profile in
@NewYorker
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Holy crap! Bernhard Raimann: ONE OF US!
"Raimann graduated...with a 3.8 GPA, with an actuarial science and statistics double major with a mathematics minor. He’s now in an accelerated program for a master’s degree in applied statistics and analytics."
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The Bengals built a team in the style of the Chiefs but have done a better job of maximizing talent in the secondary and have just drafted better recently (helps to pick early!). WR > OT/CB > EDGE in terms of team building and obviously hitting on Burrow is the big equalizer.
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@PFF_Sam
@robertmays
People talking all kinds of stuff about the Bengals as if the Bengals haven't been able to get production out of the QB position in the last ten years. Bengals didn't mess up Carson Palmer and Dalton has been pretty good. Lots of other teams have done worse with more!
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@ArifHasanNFL
It's little known that the consciousness of previous Boltmen are transmitted to the next Boltmen so that they can remember the full spectrum of Chargering.
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#GrindingtheMocks
2.0 is LIVE! Its not 100% built out yet but it has the main core features that the previous version of the site had as well as plans for more features to be built out over the coming weeks and months. Let's do this!
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Worse than Trey Lance???
zach wilson is easily one of the worst draft picks in this century of football
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Marshawn Kneeland was my sleeper prospect to go in Round 1 but instead, he landed around his EDP of 51. Very happy with this result among others happening today! Nice move to fortify the pass rush in Dallas.
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@BarredinDC
@FoundingFarmers
So DC should change its policy because a suburban Philadelphia school district wasn’t smart enough to know the rules about a DC specific policy? This is insane, haha.
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The Sports Analytics community and the world lost a bright light in
@HutchNGo
last week. I would love to see our community raise up his family during this difficult time. May Geoff's memory be for a blessing, always!
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Let's get those post-draft charts thread started! Here's always my simultaneously most loved, feared, and hated chart of the season:
#GrindingTheMocks
Draft Capital Over Expected by NFL team. And yes, I know what you're thinking: "I think you're team's draft really stunk."
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This is a core "Moneyball" concept. You're not buying players, you're buying wins!
Illustration of why positional value still hasn't isn't fully appreciated in the draft, and this sentiment reflects one-size-fits-all big boards.
Goal isn't to draft good players, it's to win games, or better yet, build a team with championship talent
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I'm planning on attending the NFL combine next month to meet up with teams and agents about working with
@GrindingMocks
as a data/insight provider. Any tips for a first-time combine attendee? My DMs are open!
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@YardsPerGretch
Look at this still from A.J. Brown's draft day call from the Titans in 2019...
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@SharpFootball
Could you at least properly attribute this data to me and/or
@GrindingMocks
? Thanks! I put a lot of work into what I do and would appreciate it!
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@tejfbanalytics
They're both impressive feats! Why do we need to fight over which one is more impressive than the other?
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This is what the same chart looks like using the
@Jason_OTC
/
@PFF_Brad
Trade Value chart. Pretty similar results to the logarithmic adjustment that I apply.
#GrindingTheMocks
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The selections of McCarthy, Turner, and Jackson were great despite the trade value given up to get the two Round 1 guys. Everything is also pretty good. This class could go a long way in determining Kwesi's staying power in Minnesota since next year's draft capital is bleak!
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I wrote about how
@MathBomb
's Relative Athletic Scores relate to Average Draft Position in mock drafts pre and post combine the last 2 years. TLDR: No effect at a high level but poor athletes get punished and elite athletes get rewarded.
#GrindingtheMocks
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News flash: HE IS!
#GrindingTheMocks
Jayden Daniels just had the best collegiate pass efficiency rating of all-time.
Almost every QB on this list from the P5 was a high draft pick, including 5 first overall picks.
He has to be taken seriously in draft discussions — even when compared to Caleb Williams.
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Top 2021 NFL draft "steals" by Expected Draft Position:
1. Trey Smith, G, Tennessee - KC
2. Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State - GB
3. Quincy Roche, OLB, Miami - PIT
4. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa - CAR
5. Seth Williams, WR, Auburn - DEN
#GrindingTheMocks
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Murder of almost my entire extended family on my mother’s side.
vs
Public health guidance to ensure we protect our communities from a full blown global pandemic that has killed almost 600K people.
Guess I’m not a “rational Jewish person”!
"I think any rational Jewish person didn't like what happened in Nazi Germany & any rational Jewish person doesn't like what's happening with overbearing mask mandates."
I asked Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene about her comment comparing mask mandates to the Holocaust
@12News
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Draft revisionist history is alive and well. Even Brugler himself had Collins in and around where he was selected in a mock draft about two weeks before the 2021 NFL Draft.
#GrindingTheMocks
WR Nico Collins falling to pick 89 in the 2021 NFL Draft was a surprise on draft day, especially after his pro day:
6-4 1/8
215 lbs
34 1/8" arms
4.45 40/1.55 10
37 1/2 vert
10'5" broad
6.79 3-cone (!)
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Would love KC as a site. Great synergy with the
@NLBMuseumKC
!
By making the proactive decision about the All-Star Game now, MLB sidestepped dominoes that would have started to fall in June -- possible All-Star player boycotts that would've been a disaster for the sport. Now the sport can focus on a new site: MIL perhaps, or KC, or Chicago.
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Super excited to announce the first release of my 2018 NFL Consensus and Performance Tracker! In brief, I collected ~400 mock drafts to see how good the crowd was at predicting where players eventually ended up and visualized the results in a Shiny app.
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I'm quoted in a piece in today's
@nytimes
by
@Nate_Cohn
about NFL teams making draft picks that deviate consistently from "consensus". Pretty excited!
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Top 2021 NFL draft "steals" by Expected Draft Position (accounting for pick value):
1. Trey Smith, G, Tennessee - KC
2. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama - NE
3. J. Owusu-Koramoah, OLB, Notre Dame - CLE
4. Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa - CAR
5. Kylin Hill, RB, Miss. State - GB
#GrindingTheMocks
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I wanted to take a moment to once again thank everyone who's supported my work on
@GrindingMocks
. It means so much! Now I'm going to eat some tasty Asian food, take a deep breath, and enjoy the draft. Look for chart updates on players on the GTM feed and on the site!
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Very happy to have 26 of the top 31 players in the
@GrindingMocks
Top 31 this year. That's about what we would expect (25 or 26) in an average year for us! More charts to come in the morning as I am flat-out exhausted.
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With the
#NFLDraft
a month away, I am writing a series of blog posts about my data-informed approach to predicting the draft using mock draft data called "Grinding the Mocks" an homage to
#DraftTwitter
. First, a post laying out my theory of mock drafts!
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It is time...to post my most loved and most hated chart of the 2024 NFL Draft cycle: Draft Capital Over Expected (DCOE) by Team. DCOE differs between
#GrindingTheMocks
Expected Draft Position and Actual Draft Slot. Lions and Jaguars on opposite sides of the DCOE spectrum...
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This is what I mean when I tell people that
@GrindingMocks
is making public what NFL analytics teams already do in private except we bring much, much, more data to the table and the advanced statistical techniques to boot!
#GrindingTheMocks
Rick Spielman's thoughts on NFL Mock Drafts? 🧐
"NFL Mock Drafts never had an effect on if we selected or didn't select a player"
"I thought mock drafts were interesting"
"We actually have our Analytics team go through every mock draft out there - creating an algorithm -
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Does a player really improve during the draft process? Or just our perception of him? I have a feeling it's more the latter.
Willis' improvement throughout this offseason has been eye-opening. Development from Day 1 Senior Bowl to now has been huge. Love to see that.
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I have big news to report: MATT ARAIZA IS ELIGIBLE FOR AN EXPECTED DRAFT POSITION! Punter God is finally in
@GrindingMocks
!
#GrindingTheMocks
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When
@FO_ASchatz
approached me about working on an article about the relationship between media members' draft class grades and future value in the NFL, I was game. Little did I know what I would be getting myself into! THREAD
The Dallas Cowboys were roundly praised for their 2020 draft, which makes their 2020 season more promising, right? Actually, no, because media draft grades aren't at all predictive.
@benj_robinson
takes a closer look.
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Biggest risers since the last
@GrindingMocks
update two weeks ago
- Calijah Kancey, DT,
#PittLegend
(Kiper top 10 mock draft selection)
- Adetomiwa Adebawore, EDGE, NW (Senior Bowl)
- Keion White, EDGE, GT (Senior Bowl + Kiper hype)
- Deonte Banks, CB, UMD (Brugler/Kiper hype)
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I've mentioned this before but
#GrindingtheMocks
is hitting the road this week to
#CMSAC19
in Pittsburgh where I'll be presenting this dandy of a poster! Thanks to
@jon_m_rob
,
@chuurveg
, and others (mainly friends, colleagues, and family) for all their input! Very excited!
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🚨New
@GrindingMocks
release!🚨
- Bryce Young back at 1.1
- Bryan Bresee falling fast
- New feature: positional tier charts!
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Top 5 Undrafted Players by Expected Draft Position:
1. Dylan Moses, ILB, Alabama (97)
2. Ar'Darius Washington, FS, TCU (109)
3. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State (111)
4. Cade Johnson, WR, South Dakota State (136)
5. Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest (142)
#GrindingTheMocks
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@JoeBanner13
I would say that draft "experts" were skeptical of Dwayne Haskins despite the fact they thought he'd be a first round pick. But he was not the consensus top QB in 2019!
#GrindingtheMocks
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Thank you for speaking out:
@KeeganAbdoo
,
@StatsbyLopez
,
@aaronblackshear
,
@asmae_toumi
,
@TonyElHabr
,
@TobiasStats
. This is how we increase the visibility of these access and equity issues and begin to make change!
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Is it just me but does anyone else still find it incredibly dangerous for fans to be in the stands in these games. Even 20% capacity looks like so many...
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MIKE MCDANIEL ERASURE!
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Now for the big reveal! What do draft class grades tell us about future value (as measured by AV per pick per year)? Not much at all. At each unit of GPA, panelists made accurate predictions and inaccurate ones and the overall effect ends up zeroing out!
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At the end of Day 3, the Top 5 Mock Drafts by my Pick-Adjusted Mean Squared Error (MSE) in
@GrindingMocks
data:
1.
@FieldYates
- ESPN
2.
@AlbertBreer
- SI
3.
@1TimMurray
- VSIN
4.
@BenStandig
- The Athletic
5.
@MattFtheOracle
- Fantasy Life
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Me after getting the news! Congrats to the
#CMSAC21
organizers for putting on an amazing conference. The best is yet to come. Next year in person in Pittsburgh!
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Too bad the “be you” part is insulting and dangerous to my religion, culture, community, and family. Just too bad, right? We deserve to exist as much as anybody else and to have the right to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. What’s more American than that?
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Would you believe it if I told you that I also had 84 out of my top 100 prospects by Expected Draft Position go in the top 100 picks in last year's draft? This isn't rocket science. Even a humble mock grinder like myself can do it!
#GrindingTheMocks
Longtime draft guru
@Jeff_Legwold
picks this year's top prospects. Eighty-four of his picks went in the top 100 in 2020.
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A new
@GrindingMocks
data update was pushed this morning. On the QB side:
- Young steady
- Stroud down
- Levis down
- Richardson down
- Hooker up
WHAT IS HAPPENING?!?!?!?! Look for a deeper update thread later today.
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If anyone is the
@NateSilver538
of the NFL Draft, it's me of course! 30 of 32 picks on our board went in Round 1 with Cole Strange being the big outlier. The ranking of the other player drafted in Round was Lewis Cine at 34! Put some respect on
@GrindingMocks
name...
Of the 32 picks in the first round of the NFL Draft.
@dpbrugler
had 29 of the players picked in his top 33 prospects and all but Cole Strange in his top 50. No other board is close. Dane Brugler clearly know how NFL front offices think! He is the Nate Silver of the NFL Draft.
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Why is Cris Collinsworth still going on and on about establishing the run? We know from
@friscojosh
that Watt probably would have attacked the RB regardless of whether they had success running the ball before.
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.
@robert_binion
and
@MarkWood14
presenting in their work on Racial Inequality in the college football coaching ranks. Crucial data and discussion!
#ForHutch
#CMSAC22
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Clarke added it’s not his job to say where an arena should be, but regardless Metro’s mission is to get people on transit and
#wmata
will get people where they need to be for games and events.
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Draft Analysts Pre-Draft: "This class stinks. There are only like 15 prospects with a Round 1 grade!"
Draft Analysts In-Draft: "I love this pick. He's going to be great. So dynamic and a great character guy."
Draft Analysts Post-Draft: "A+ grade. No notes!"
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@bburkeESPN
@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@Escoot
Not this again! Let this chart stay internal. And FITFO is basically an ad hominem here. Come on! Keep on repeatedly saying that it's simple and elegant, etc., and have some humility when people say it doesn't make sense to them when it could with a few tweaks.
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Super fast!!! Sometimes finds herself all alone up top as a result, haha. So fun to watch!
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Each year of
@GrindingMocks
, a player was drafted Rd. 1 that had an EDP > Rd. 2. They are:
Terrell Edmunds, S, VT
Tytus Howard, OT, ALAST
Noah Igbinoghene, CB, AUB
Payton Turner, EDGE, HOU
Cole Strange, G, CHAT
Which player is that this year? Best guess gets my undying gratitude!
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@Josh_ADHD
@geoffschwartz
@MatthewBerryTMR
Shouldn't have to be Jewish players like Edelman or Mitchell Schwartz. Would love to see leaders in the locker room of the Eagles like C. Wentz or F. Cox speak out that this isn't OK. Folks need to get educated about how these tropes have been used to persecute Jews in the past!
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Were the mocks not exactly right? Sure. Should we expect them to be? No! Were they close and is that what matters? Damn right they were.
#GrindingTheMocks
Hate to be a buzzkill, but mock drafts with all the WRs so high can't be right, right? Just like they had Jeudy and Lamb too high last season. WRs are the new RBs. Can't draft them high. Of the top 13 receivers last season, not one was drafted in top 20.
#againstthegrain
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I want to start today by thanking everyone for following me and
@GrindingMocks
this draft cycle. It means a lot!
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Burrow has targeted AJ Green 8 times with only 2 catches to show for it...and I'm not just saying this because Tyler Boyd is on my fantasy team in my work league! Either he's not throwing to Green when he's open or he's not getting enough separation. Both are...not great!
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🚨A
@GrindingMocks
UPDATE🚨
The first initial Expected Draft Position data post the early declaration date and finalizing of the draft order of the 2023 NFL Draft class is LIVE on !
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Paging
@BernhardRaimann
! Your adoring fans need to know: R or Python?
Holy crap! Bernhard Raimann: ONE OF US!
"Raimann graduated...with a 3.8 GPA, with an actuarial science and statistics double major with a mathematics minor. He’s now in an accelerated program for a master’s degree in applied statistics and analytics."
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McCarthy seems like the one guy here (this is only from the Top 50 players in
#GrindingTheMocks
) who might want to consider staying in school. His stock peaked mid-season and has trending down ever since. Not being asked to throw the ball much in high-leverage games: concerning!
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Good luck,
@StatsInTheWild
! May the best project win (and to think I included him in my thanks in my presentation slides...)!
#CMSAC20
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@BenBriggs35
I have zero problems with people saying Zach Wilson stinks after seeing the evidence. It's the going all the way back to the draft and saying it was all there to see why he was going to be bad as clear as day when it was not.
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Travis Etienne returning to Clemson next year makes sense given where he started the
#NFLDraft
process and where he is now that he's made his decision to return to school. Big drop in stock and who's largely responsible for eating into that stock? J.K. Dobbins.
#GrindingtheMocks
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Don't blame me but...the latest
#GrindingTheMocks
update has Jayden Daniels as QB2. It's a Caleb Williams world and Daniels, Drake Maye, and Marvin Harrison Jr. are all just living in it!
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DRAFT DAY MORNING
@GrindingMocks
UPDATE!
- Bryce Young holding steady
- C.J. Stroud MASSIVE faller (outside of Daniel Jeremiah mock)
- Will Levis slight riser
- Anthony Richardson continues to fall
- Hendon Hooker is back in the Top 32 again (sigh)
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