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The more time I spend doing this the simpler, but not easier, it seems to get. Find businesses with good and invested management teams focused on intelligently growing the business' free cash flow per share. The work needed to be confident you have one at a good price is hard.
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Wow. $CPH.TO is seeking NASDAQ listing in the near future and seeking to make this a US based operation.
[NEW PODCAST] Cipher Pharmaceuticals $CPH.TO $CPHRF: Specialty Pharmaceuticals Focused on Dermatology Products | Due Diligence Series - Interview with Craig Mull (CEO) and Bryan Jacobs (President).
@CipherPharmaIR
Topics covered:
- History of Cipher and how they've narrowed
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The securities in my portfolio as of today include:
ADF Group $DRX.TO
Alarum Technologies $ALAR
Atlas Engineered Products $AEP.V
Cipher Pharmaceuticals $CPH.TO
BQE Water $BQE.V
I find these securities continue to have a large discrepancy between today's valuation and
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$DRX.TO suffering from a major selloff seemingly caused by large long term holders trying to get out of the way of the upcoming tax change. Management says $80M on the BS today. 2.7M SO reduction. Annualizing Q1 gives you ~15% FCF/EV yield.
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$aep.v
$alar
$avcr.v
$bqe.v
$cno.v
$cph.to
$drx.to
$hash.v
$slyg.f
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Just 2 people posting about $brm.v after that report is pretty interesting. Is it still that under the radar?
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Listening to guys like Ian Cassel and Paul Andreola on podcasts discussing their 30 something years of experience is always so eye opening. They both have mentioned a greater amount of young, intelligent people entering the field today which seems daunting as the competition
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Thank you to
@Divergent7651
,
@LeftField_FHRS
,
@PedroLamento
,
@StephenFrampto9
,
@ragingbullcap
,
@SebKrog
, and Devo of course for impeccable work on this one. Apologies if I missed any accounts that have published any kind of write-ups on Cipher. @ them if I did please! 😁
$CPH.TO earnings call highlights:
1) Permethrin resistance is a global issue. Management believes this will unlock significant revenue and value streams for Natroba.
2) Natroba is the only scabies treatment in the U.S. with a complete cure.
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I'm a pretty small account so I don't really know why I write this and post it. It's not really intended for anyone but it's helpful to collect and parse my thoughts. Maybe it's helpful to others, that'd be nice.
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Whoa great quarter $CNO.V! I’ll have to do some more research but I think I’m gonna bite.
Annualized ratios with yesterdays closing price
3x EV/S
6x EV/EBITDA
66% Gross Margin over 55%
273% Revenue YoY
766% EBITDA YoY
All in something very niche.
Congrats to holders.
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I went through the Canadian Securities Exchange and found 6 stocks that I even considered to write down. I was able to do in a weekend, granted it’s a ton of fraud and pre/no-operation co’s on a small exchange, but if I were doing this full time I think A-Z is easily manageable.
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For $DRX.TO, Q4 is typically weaker and yet it was recently one of their best ever quarters let alone just for Q4. This, combined with the current backlog and how management is speaking, paints a picture that this could be a knockout year for ADF Group.
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•Continue to collaborate with our partner Moberg Pharma on its MOB-015 phase III clinical trial in the U.S., whereby results are expected by January 2025.
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Finally my bid fills… $BQE.V
Another one I came across earlier this year when it was around 30 and just passed over 😔
But happily along for the ride now! Thanks to those of you who’ve done the heavy lifting on this one.
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Fun to see the sharp increase in the amount of discourse around $DRX.TO. There wasn’t much when I started following it earlier this year. Now there’s multiple comments per day on a handful of platforms.
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@lurker8679
@3Plantey2
@CuriousRyanLee
Some CAGRs if held to the current price. Pulled up some of the max prices and dates the picks hit after it was published too. Most investments aren't meant to be held forever but selling would've never been at the maximized gain date either. Either way, super impressive.
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@maxwellhouse99
I’m liking $hash.v and $brm.v at the moment. It seems the price reaction to recent positive performance and news has been underwhelming
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@Investmentideen
Earnings call was today so first thing in my mind but Alarum is an AI tailwind bet. In short they do data scraping, which is a really complicated task once you start getting into proxies and rate limiting, so high barrier to entry. Their customers have doubled from a year ago…
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$DRX.TO is still my favorite idea by far. So many levers hinged to increasing value. The stock went up 20% when they reported FY2023 results and got CHEAPER. $30M FCF in Q4 alone. That’s good for a 25% FCF yield (annualized) for a company lined with cash and great growth engines.
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@StephenFrampto9
@PedroLamento
@PythiaR
Yeah that one really surprised me. This is a $370M company now and the knowledge of it by these analysts seems to be almost nothing.
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@Atrium_Research
How probable is it in the coming 2-3 years that you operate at full capacity?
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Reflecting is a beneficial habit to have so as the mid-point of the year approaches I want to asses the performance and quality of my investments.
For the year 2024 from Jan 1 to Jun 11, my positions have netted a +41.5% gain (+100.2% CAGR). This performance is extraordinary
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@DeepValueStonks
Slowly making my way through the spring edition. Some I’ve flagged so far:
1450
1514
1518
1724
1768
1771
1775
Let me know what you think! Tons of net-net’s. I’m not very far through yet due to limited time. There are a few I’ve left out that I want to research more. Fun so far.
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“The founder of ParaPRO will continue be actively involved with Cipher as a business partner, become our second largest shareholder, and fully supports Cipher's strategy. As we continue to execute our plan to acquire and in-license unique dermatology products, such as…
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Management has said “we don’t talk about capacity … even $1B is no problem with the facility that we have.” Let’s take their word for the amount of work they’re seeing (they recently posted positions for night shifts so it appears they’re starting to prep for it).
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@onecentinvest
The one thing that struck me most as I was looking through the listings was how much traction some of these names had. Tiny companies (fraudulent even!) with tons of non-bot mentions on here and their CEO page. Really odd to me.
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Was reconsidering having $DRX.TO as my heaviest position the past couple weeks but now I have no question. Wonder how much the market grabs onto that “ample capacity” line or if they just take the $90M at face value.
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@Investmentideen
Also something I don’t see mentioned much on here about them. But humans are uploading 328 million terabytes of data to the internet every day (as of today). So as we evolve, AI models will as well which will need newer data to train on. I like tolls on high investment areas.
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$hash.v
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All the facts from
@PlanetMicroCap
interview released earlier today.
Potential product risk on Natroba courtesy of
@DiegoLa95810478
. Some studies that disagree with claims of mite resistance to Permethrin, links below.
My notes from the $CPH.TO interview:
1) Cipher's revenues more than doubled from Natroba acquisition.
2) Earnings have doubled on EBITDA metric. Natroba provides "almost identical EBITDA level". (1/n)
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At current margins and $1B in sales the equity sits at ~33% FCF/EV yield. I also think how much large shareholders continue to want to own (they only sold ~10% stake) is a signal there’s more gas in the tank.
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Fintwit has to be the most convex thing around. Find the right people to follow and you effectively get an army of young Buffett’s doing the 20,000 pages twice for you. Obviously you still have to do the work yourself to give it a checkmark for you own money…
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@TrentBlair19
Thanks Trent this is quite the compliment! And I definitely have a lot more now! Hello new followers, I look forward to learning with you all 😃
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Japan has some obscenely cheap securities. I’ll never be able to understand every nuance so it seems a basket of cheap securities is a good strategy. Haven’t come across promotional/parasitic listings yet which is interestingly refreshing to see. More to come from Japan I hope!
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@Divergent7651
Episodes with Ian:
@businessbrewpod
concise and covers a lot.
@RyanReeves_
always lets his guests command the conversation which I enjoy.
Episodes with Paul:
@RyanReeves_
again.
@marketplunger1
has a good one.
@PlanetMicroCap
has a handful with Paul that are good.
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@DiegoLa95810478
I came across some work on it by
@SebKrog
which summed it up nicely in a couple sentences. If you’re interested more in the name, try to find his blog post on it.
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This website can be a fantastic resource as an investor but in the same vein can completely plague one’s mentality. Echo chambers can be created around any idea and if you’re not privy you can swindle yourself away from the facts.
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@KyleAdamsStocks
@OtterMarket
@nicholasp66
I agree with this almost to a T. Of course this is going to be a dynamic industry to the likes that we can’t even grasp yet, maybe placing bets now is a fool’s game but I don’t think it’s a zero sum game. These guys are hitting grand slams left and right, even if they manage to…
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@TrentBlair19
It seemed that investment has been around since before 2021 and I think I read still pre-operation. Just struck me as a reflection of management more than anything. If that’s what they’re throwing cash at, I don’t want to stick around to see what they do with the new cash flows
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Conviction on my largest holding has eroded a fair amount. Reducing considerably to avoid learning a lesson the hard way.
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@PedroLamento
You started accumulating somewhere around CAD$3 right? Your annualized returns will be outlandish if Mull executes.
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@NestBetter
@Divergent7651
Earnings expected Friday for Avricore. Fair warning if you use , you’ll probably want to mute notifications.
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If you’re selling $DRX.T today, why? Have you read the latest filings?
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$HASH.V
SIMPLY SOLVENTLESS EXCEEDS GUIDANCE AND ANNOUNCES Q2 2024 RECORD GROSS REVENUE OF $4.23 MILLION
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Great read. Thanks, Maj.
@manu_books
Thank you for sharing.. we took a look at the writing’s of Marcus Aurelius and attempted to surmise how his principles could relate to investing.
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38.5% CAGR if you were even a little late to the idea. 72.4% CAGR if you were in a year prior. Both very good results. Amazing how advantageous long term perspectives are; it is simply unfair. If you can find inflection points early enough, you make a killing.
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@Investmentideen
Wow did not expect to see this after getting off from work. Thanks for the shout, Paul I’ve appreciated learning from you.
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Even more difficult is dealing with your own psychology. Is the position too big? Too small? Holding onto stocks that seem to lie there dormant for months or even years while dozens of new and interesting opportunities present themselves.
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@Uzocapital
Yup I find this very annoying. But thankfully there’s maybe only 5-6 listings on that whole exchange that resemble real businesses that a sensible person would want to own.
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I came across $DRX.T organically in January this year. Didn’t know it already had a following on Twitter. I have already seen over 50% gain (after averaging up). Feels really good and is in a way my first “winner” that was of my own research and not a tagalong. This game is fun.
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@Investmentideen
And continue to come back for more (retention rate is 166%). Revenues recently grew at 47% yoy and with a 78% gross margin. Trades around 5x annualized revenues currently. I started following their journey relatively recently but I like the story and management seems focused.
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@DMetropolitan
Wow! I remember coming across your write up of $SOWG 1 day after you posted it... back in March - a whole 4 months ago. Congrats!
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@dislocationhunt
@chasericker3
That’s the only drawback of $jctcf. If they get the full asking price, there’s no indication it doesn’t get thrown back at literal dog poop. Insiders own practically nothing so incentives don’t seem great.
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@TrentBlair19
The picks that end up having the highest return always start out with a little hair on them.
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@hcapinvesting
@joinyellowbrick
@TMTMoats
@Giuliano_Mana
@weenink_arnold
@Kreuzmann13
Smoak lays it out nicely in his 2023 letter.
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@CuriousRyanLee
@lurker8679
@3Plantey2
Fun to make! Xpel was actually profiled in 2013 at .86 so that’s another 91% CAGR if those returns weren’t good enough for you! Plus post tax returns kick ass cause most were long term. Not to obsess on numbers TOO much, better to be directionally right than precisely wrong
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@harvard_homeboy
@lurker8679
@3Plantey2
@CuriousRyanLee
Yes there is! Not sure if you saw the post this was replying to, but it was covering a prominent investor’s picks on VIC. Their posts are published with the CAD share price. Plus it’s the primary listing so it’s easier to list the price of those shares, but that’s just my opinion
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If you are not careful, simple ideas can be misattributed as irrational exuberance. I’m posting this as a reminder to myself but maybe it helps others. Consider and weigh the facts. Patience is a virtue.
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@CuriosityInves
Thank you friend. Appreciate the constant support. Growing my account isn’t the objective but it’s nice to see my words resonate with so many. Hopefully any growth comes from prudent investments! I enjoy seeing others on here amass a following for their genuine ideas.
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@KyleAdamsStocks
@OtterMarket
@nicholasp66
just catch some shrapnel as everything begins to shake out, I think the current price is just too cheap for the shoes they can grow into. The supply of hardware can’t keep up with the demand so most businesses don’t have a full grip on the tools yet.
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@joinyellowbrick
@hcapinvesting
This pick, and its investor, has a lot more “not sucking” ahead of it.
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@Divergent7651
2 pieces of equipment sold are inflating profits for the quarter. If you adjust, it is trading a bit expensive on a run rate basis. Top line was still +135% yoy adjusted for those sales. New facility gives them 5x sqft of what they have. New machines 6x capacity. Room to go yet.
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Good results from $CNO.V. No position but several elements of it intrigue me. Will have to keep watching and researching for now. Congratulations to owners!
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Takeaways from $DRX.T annual report. Management confident in growth for the year (and longer term from the conference call). Increasing share of more profitable fabrication work which should lead to higher gross margin.
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@LukeWolgram
Gurufocus is up there. Probably has the most fields to use. Pretty simple to make formulas. Can be pretty broken and is expensive. Data accuracy is usually okay.
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@AbdrazakAlmas
@ragingbullcap
Just Canada for now. The speculation is that this acquisition allows them to bid for the license in the US. Even without that you’re getting a consistent, capital light business for a little less than a 10x multiple.
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@DiegoLa95810478
Yeah I didn’t like what I saw with them. They’ve been losing significant contracts across Canada so the trajectory is terrible. Couldn’t find anything that led me to believe they can sign new, meaningful deals so I passed. But all it takes is a big announcement!
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@DiegoLa95810478
$DRX.TO I don't think I was giving it enough credit for how bad of a business it can be when the tide turns. They were in a similar situation to today in 1999 and 2007. SEDAR and SEDI filings from then don't paint a nice picture. Management's recent selling irked me initially...
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ADF GROUP INC. ANNOUNCES THE RESULTS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ENDED APRIL 30, 2024
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You don't need to be first, the smartest, or working 14 hours/day. You just need curiosity, patience, and some understanding of how the world works. Feedback loops are long and the understanding part takes a while to develop, but it's a simple game that gets less difficult.
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Assessing quality and consistency of mentality, in my mind, continue to be where most of this game takes place.
Almost every time I’m on here now I think of the following words:
“Speed of communication and the wonders of technology facilitate instant worldwide paralysis”
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future intrinsic value as they are equipped with prosperous traits that should see considerable business success. I plan only to exit these holdings should my thesis change with more information as operations proceed or I find something cheaper.
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@GeoInvesting
@TrentBlair19
Even the megacaps. From $1T to $200B to $1.3T. All in less than 4 years.
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publicly traded business reporting in English. There’s so many opportunities out there.
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$jctcf appears to be an interesting cigar butt opportunity. Seed processing property listed for sale at significantly more than what it’s on their books for.
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@1AnyoneButTrump
Fantastic job Michael. Thank you for publishing all your well-researched hard work.
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Bunch of people publicly buying more $ALAR this morning, nobody mentioning why the stock is down. Do they know?
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2 psychological factors I didn’t think would be so challenging: watching errors of omission and too many ideas but too little capital. How does everyone deal with these?
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Who do I have to thank for SEDAR being slow and having constant maintenance?
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@KyleAdamsStocks
@OtterMarket
Harris’ argument is that further competition will continue driving prices down effectively making this a commoditized business. It’s a great point, I don’t disagree. I am long but an uber-competitive industry can erode a thesis quickly.
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@CuriosityInves
@TrentBlair19
Oops! Well I never said who specifically! But I think they’re pretty obvious if you look into them enough…
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