There was some alpha in this tweet 🔥🔥🔥 STAA now close to -75% based on premarket price

@SFarringtonBKC @QuipusCapital @joinyellowbrick @Wubbebos @WolfOfOakville @northeasternsvf That happens constantly on the long side too If someone has a newsletter that tends to focus on small cap companies with limited floats and levered capital structures, and subsequently trims after posting positively, they are engaged in the exact same behavior.

@RealHerbHoover @svrnco @walt373 What’s an example transaction? How far out of money are you going over what time periods?

@walt373 Why did DeepSeek change your probability of ASI? I thought its revolution was the cost/efficiency. It’s less capable than other models. I guess because it catalyzes the full blown race between China and the west? Now neither side can afford to restrain progress at all?

@ApolloResearchC Ah ok, Frontier LTM EBITDAR is $650m, and they are assuming that gets to $1.8bn by 2026. Very odd to show recoveries for converts+equities based on a 2 yr fwd number.

@SowingAlphaSeed @orrdavid @UpslopeCapital iborrowdesk also works

@Mufasa_Capital That said, I'm getting to <10x PE on LTM numbers making the adjustments for the 3 most likely headwinds from the consent order and associated biz changes.

@Mufasa_Capital @thebankzhar Yes, but you also have -$156m in deposits repricing from 0% to potentially around 2.7% (the avg int bearing deposit rate) or even higher -increased opex for compliance costs -a potential hit to growth depending on how much these high risk merchants drove recent growth

@stockgutter I am looking too. Several have surprisingly poor ROIC. See Cuervo below, only ~5% ROIC. Maybe they entered farming at wrong time? Whole space prob needs to improve capital allocation. Would like to see divestments of lower quality brands to focus/reinvest in areas of strength

@shot_change Looks like it wasn't much of a buying opportunity with -14 pts of underperformance vs SPY, but at least it's generating alpha vs Cuervo and Campari? Will be interesting to see how consumption trends develop across the space over next 2-3 yrs I have a few starter positions

@orrdavid I did pitch this one to you roughly a year ago! It was too small/illiquid for you though

@fundiescapital @John_Hempton Maybe that's the supply response we need. I guess we aren't going to get it from new dodgy IPOs.

@Sophoninvest Why do you like highly valued office in central business districts with rising vacancy managed by an external manager based in Israel?

@Mike10947310 What govt contracts could a DTC coffee company like Black Rifle (BRCC) procure?

@UpslopeCapital Third option for - he seems decent, but got massively overrated due to having perfect market conditions for his strategy, and then the great stretch of returns resulted in him/Fundsmith becoming overconfident and a bit complacent?

@DynamicMoats Is there any explanation on how the largest companies ran FCF negative for 20 years in the 1950s and 1960s?

@walt373 @glbeaty SPWR was a big one but I thought no publicly traded debt

@walt373 @glbeaty There were a decent amount of bankruptcy candidates that kinda melted in the last 3-4 months of the year, some due to bk filings. DNMR, BIG, SAVE, NKLA. That prob helped. Saw something similar in my results.

@walt373 Awesome work - and that’s prob with DNMR1 puts still wildly mismarked!