Stonks Value
@DeepValueStonks
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Hi, my name's Stonks. I cover deep value stocks, Grahamian net-nets, special situations and alike. Not investment advice.
Graham-and-Doddsville
Joined March 2023
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This is getting ridiculous.
Since I first covered it three months ago, one of the net-nets in my portfolio has dropped another 25%.
Now it's trading at just 17% of book value and 40.5% of NCAV, making it one of the cheapest stocks I own.
So, naturally - I bought more.
Link's
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Here's my first ever writeup
Smart Sand is one of the largest suppliers of high quality frac sand in North America, inefficiently priced at ~50% of liquidation value and 30% book, with pristine balance sheet and rapidly growing revenue and earnings.
Link's in the bio.
$SND
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Just got the latest Japan Company Handbook in my mailbox today. I wanted to buy a copy for sooo long!
Looks beautiful
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Vindexus S.A. $VIN.WA is a debt collection agency, consistently profitable for many years now, with very little debt, trading at ~32% of NCAV and ~69% Adj. TBV.
Last year the management announced a buyback of almost 13% of all shares to be financed with a freshly issued bond...
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Probably the most interesting thing you will see today.
These guys run a student value fund, managing $300k.
I salute you all.
New Investment Idea: Long Saker Aviation Services $SKAS
We believe the market is overlooking a significant operations moat in an upcoming RFP win.
- Potential RFP Win Presents Significant Upside
- Potential Reverse Merger Offers Minor Upsidew/o RFP Win
- Expected Liquidation
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Tokyo Automatic Machinery $6360 6360.T is trading for around 0.5 book value and ~4 P/E. 2.15% div yield, and Bloomberg shows its P/B incorrectly, at 2.20, thus it does not show up on screens.
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Meet a new company in my portfolio:
A profitable net-net trading at
- 20% of book value,
- 36% of NCAV,
- 47% of adjusted TBV, and with insiders holding 56% of total shares...
You can find a link to the article in my bio.
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Hi everyone!
I just started a new series of short writeups called "What's in my deep value portfolio?", where I share my current portfolio picks, as well as mention some recent changes to my investment strategy.
Link is in the bio (no paywall).
$ANX.L $CZBS $UBAB $NAII $CURN
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To ECIP bank investors:
2 days ago there was an announcement on "ECIP Disposition Policy" posted on the US Treasury website. Followed by "2023 Investing for Impact Annual Report", which summarized the results and the impact of the ECIP program on low-income and minority
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Hi everybody! After being on fintwit for quite a while now, finding many great people, hearing their ideas and making nice cash on other people’s work I decided it's time to give out to the community and also share my picks. I hope this will help you guys make money too.
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I just posted an article on a company trading for 20% of its book value, and low single digits P/E. Extrinsically complex, but intrinsically simple case.
Link's in the bio.
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$NAII is a cigar butt; current market cap ~$33M, trades at around 50% liquidation value, adjusted net current assets alone equal ~$30M (operating leases on the liabilities side subtracted), free of debt, possible return of ~100%
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Portfolio Update📈 & 2024 YTD return💵
1. $CZBS (13.5%), an ECIP bank trading at 5-6 P/E and ~70% adj. BV.
2. $ORCH.L (9%), P/E of ~4-5, and 1/3 liq. val., still extremely cheap (writeup in the bio).
3. $UBAB (8.5%), another ECIP bank trading at a wide discount.
[1/7]
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My 1H 2024 portfolio return is 14.2%...
...but I'm more proud of this:
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Just a quick reminder, Stalprofil S.A. $STF.WA is still trading at 1/4th of book and still profitable, even in the midst of such poor industry conditions.
It's also trading right around 60% of NCAV.
The industry outlook is slowly improving, what is visible in the growing
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Last month, $NAII suddenly started falling with no news, dropping to as low as $5.15, or below 50% of my fair value estimate. I started buying more shares, and my position now stands at 16% of my portfolio.
Over the past week, I've noticed significantly larger volumes than
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Kyoritsu Air Tech $5997 5997.T is trading for 0.38 book value, at ~6.6 P/E, with 2.24% div yield. Profitable without fail since at least 2013 (as far as Bloom allows me to see)
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Smart Sand $SND just announced a $0.10 per share (or around 5%) special dividend, and a share buyback for up to $10M. The current market cap is~$86M.
Stock is up 15% aftermarket.
Good to finally see some action, I especially like the buyback program. They seem to have plenty
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Just as a reminder - $ANX.L is still trading at ~4.5x earnings and ~46% of TBV... pretty much recession-proof business model, and a shareholder friendly management
$ANX will announce its Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2024 on 20 August 2024. Alan Sellers, Executive Chairman, and Mark Bringloe, CFO, will provide a live presentation via
@InvestorMeetCo
on 20 August at 09:00 BST
#ANX
⤵️
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Vindexus S.A. $VIN.WA is up 11.7% today, due to East Value Research raising its target price from 13.9 PLN to 22.3 PLN.
Since releasing my writeup, the stock is up 20%. It's still trading at ~6-7 P/E (based on 2023 earnings), and 37% of NCAV.
All of the companies covered there
Vindexus S.A. $VIN.WA is a debt collection agency, consistently profitable for many years now, with very little debt, trading at ~32% of NCAV and ~69% Adj. TBV.
Last year the management announced a buyback of almost 13% of all shares to be financed with a freshly issued bond...
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To whom it may concern, here's a NCAV screen for US stocks from Bloomberg Terminal (10/20/2023):
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I currently hold:
$SND, 30% of portfolio
$SENEA, 10%
$DK 10%
$CURN, 10%
$NAII, 7%
$AGAE, 3%
$LFCR, >1%
ECIP banks:
$MFBP, 5%
$CZBS, 4%
$BFCC, $CBOBA, $SFDL and $UBAB are 2%
$HRBK, 1%.
The rest is cash waiting to be spent on Japanese stocks. I'll post a list of them after buying!
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I just removed the paywall from my recent Orchard Funding Group $ORCH.L writeup, so it's free to read for everyone now.
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Portfolio update as of Q3 2023
Well hello there, fintwit friends! I thought I'd do a small update on how it's going in 2023.
I'm really happy as the YTD return throughout all accounts averages approx. 40%.
I have made some changes to the picks I posted in August:
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Surge Components $SPRS looks interesting at $2.10.
Although I'm short on time lately,
@LionheartInves1
gave me no choice and I just had to analyze it once more.
Calcs were done quickly, so if you see any errors be sure to let me know.
Link to a more detailed analysis in the
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I found this 1996 Japan Company Handbook for ~$37 (with international shipping) at some random Hungarian second hand store
$5658 $9066
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Thank you all, it's an honor!
I'll be celebrating this day appropriately🌱🌿
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🎂 First Anniversary of Stonks Value 🎉
+ a little gift from me, to you
Exactly one year ago I posted on Twitter for the first time...
Since then, this account has reached almost 2,000 followers, for which I am incredibly grateful.
This community that we together create is
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Best Value Idea Competition 🏆
As mentioned yesterday, I'd like to announce that today marks the start of a contest for the best value stock pitch, with the reward being free paid-subscription for my "link in the bio" platform...
What are the rewards?
After I analyze all of the
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How Buffett Analysed Lehman Brothers, before the fall in 2008 (+ the PDF of the original Lehman 10-K, with Buffett's handwritten notes):
It is crazy how complex that statement is. Highly worth reading for anyone interested in investing in financials
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$ORCH.L +50% since a week ago. Bought some 3 weeks ago at avg. of 17.5p, around 15% of my portfolio now.
Still trading at around 0.25-0.30
book value and low single digits P/E.
Expecting a buyout or a tender offer soon.
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FY 2023 Return and Portfolio Update
Hello there, fintwit friends! It's almost March, but I still haven't posted my 2023 returns or any updates on my portfolio picks. This changes NOW.
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Thank you all for the first 1000 followers!
I remember the excitement from finding all those brilliant investors here just 7 months ago, some of them fund managers, the big guys, you know.
It's really amazing that after just 7 months those same guys now follow my own account..
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During last $ANX.L investor call I asked if the company is planning to repurchase any shares, and was informed that it's going to be discussed very soon.
Today a resolution was passed, authorizing the company to finally purchase its shares on the market.
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K2A is up ~65% since my friend
@antarcticapital
posted a writeup on it 2 weeks ago.
That's some good work and nice timing right there :) I recommend everyone read it!
K2A is a real estate company trading at 19% of book value.
I recently added a 3% position in my portfolio.
It has a clear catalyst and high upside, while downside protected by assets.
Link in bio
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🎉 Just reached 1500 followers on Twitter! 🎉
After being here since August 2023, I gotta say, the Fintwit community really is something special. So many talented investors in one place...
Thank you all very kindly for the support! :)
Happy cigar-butt hunting!
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I just took a 1.5% position in $SGMA.
It’s trading at ~26% of loss-adjusted tangible book.
They postponed the 10-K filing due to credit agreement negotiations and are expecting $0.41 loss for FY2024. That means they had to lose $0.56 this quarter (quick calcs, will double
Not the type of investment I'd feel comfortable with, but $SGMA looks interesting at $17m market cap.
They postponed 10K filing due to credit agreement negotiations and expecting $0.41 loss in FY2024. That means they had to lose $0.56 this quarter (quick calcs, might be wrong)
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For anyone investing in net-nets, I just found this guy. He shares his ideas using this nice template. Definitely needs more recognition.
His account has just 61 followers at the moment.
@Vysse36
Growing Book Value + Net-Net, another example of value investing that paid well👇
The hardest question then is, when to sell? The BV was growing strong but I kept NCAV as the value proxy. No timing.
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My biggest position is still Smart Sand ($SND), with 25% of the capital invested in all managed accounts.
I will post my first ever writeup on this one tomorrow. I hope you'll like it.
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I reopened my $SND position again at $1.83, due to having too much excess cash.
Quarterly earnings will be released today after close. I don't expect much upwards change from last year's Q2 though, as it looks like the industry got slightly more strained since...
...but the
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People sweat to buy quality compounders only to be beaten by 10% annually by guys buying trash from desperate people only to see it go 200% up 6 months later
Do you want tips on how to find wonderful businesses with quality management at a reasonable price?
Yeah, me neither 😂😂 instead I buy nano caps facing bankruptcy or liquidation for pennies on the dollar and I have to say it's alot more fun!
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Not the type of investment I'd feel comfortable with, but $SGMA looks interesting at $17m market cap.
They postponed 10K filing due to credit agreement negotiations and expecting $0.41 loss in FY2024. That means they had to lose $0.56 this quarter (quick calcs, might be wrong)
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To all my followers on Twitter and S-Stack:
I am currently preparing for a very difficult and time-consuming exam to obtain a broker's license in my country.
Until mid-September, I will still be heavily focused on studying, so my activity on Stonks Value needed to be reduced.
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$SND just fell to $1.7 after news of Shelf Offering by the company
If anyone considered buying shares, this seems like a great time to do so.
Why is this offering not a bad thing here?
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$ORCH.L +75% for people lucky enough to have bought for 16p somewhere in the past month.
Still looks cheap at around 30% book value.
Still waiting for an inevitable buyout / tender offer.
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I gotta say, I missed that one even though
@antarcticapital
literally messaged me and told about this company. +108% in 2 weeks... Great work mate!
I'm 108% up since my write-up on K2a. I really think the company was cheap.
However, I must humbly admit that luck played a role in the timing, as it started to go up immediately after buying.
This article has brought a lot of interest to my readers. Thanks for your support!
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US Silica $SLCA, one of the main competitors of $SND entered into a merger agreement with Apollo Funds for $15.50 per share.
$SLCA up ~20% in premarket, $SND up ~10%.
That's some interesting news for sure.
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$ORCH.L announced that the dividend will be stopped for this year to free up some cash for a potential tender offer.
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It's 10:49 AM on Saturday and here I am watching how people mine and process frac sand in Wisconsin.
Couldn't imagine a better weekend
$SND
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Even considering the obvious negative impact of the losses, $NAII remains a very compelling opportunity, especially after the recent price drop. tangible margin of safety is wide, nothing dramatic has changed fundamentally, and so the market seems to be mispricing the situation
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@MadsCapital
No jokes, there is an entire subreddit r/BBBY where people that used to own (now bankrupt) $BBBY common shares discuss when they are going to be somehow reimbursed/given their shares back 🤡
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a large customer stopped buying their product temporarily (until the end of 2023) due to excess inventory levels, and $NAII shut down their newly built plant to cut costs
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news from 30 mins ago, $SND earned $0.17 per share in the most recent quarter, the best one in years, just as expected
my average price is $1.65
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@AltayCapital
Japan is the only place I know where you can have something like a 0.4 bv, 7 P/E company with stable earnings and still pass on that like it's nothing because you constantly see stuff that's even cheaper
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this is a fantastic description of what $NAII is all about, put in very simple and convincing words.
it's around 12% of my portfolio now.
$NAII Natural International Alternatives remains my best security idea at 38 million. I have 1/4th of my net worth in the security down 3% ATM
Here's my simple explanation for why I own this stock and why you might want to take a look:
- $NAII manufactures supplements, mainly
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Very well written writeup on $ORCH.L. Explains nicely how the business works, and why it's cheap at 1/3 of book value! :))
This is my latest writeup on Orchard Funding Group($ORCH.L) - a nano cap trading at 3.5 PE and 1/3rd of book value. Link to post is in bio.
P.S: Thanks to
@DeepValueStonks
for generously sharing his idea to the community!
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I gotta say, that's quite an intriguing opportunity, so it'll be very interesting to see how it all turns out in a few months.
Especially interesting for people that've read that one Greenblatt's book...
🚨 New write-up! 🚨
Seaport Entertainment Inc. ( $SEG) Spin-off from Howard Hughes ( $HHH)
How I am going to play it?
Big thanks to
@ragingbullcap
and
@DeepValueStonks
for their insights on this move. Give them a follow!
Link in BIO
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losses are to be expected, but not to the extent the market currently prices shares; return to profitability is highly probable in the next few Q's
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Even though the recent $SND earnings were rather satisfactory I decided to limit my exposure to some stocks I owned, including $SND and diversify more. I cut $SND from 25% to only 10% of my portfolio, dedicating the difference mainly to $ORCH.L, a new special sit I came across.
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Next are two ECIP banks, $CZBS and $UBAB, each being 12% of my portfolio. Then, $NAII and $SENEA, 10% each.
As for the smaller ones we have $MESA (there's a great article on it my Courage and Conviction on Seeking Alpha), and $LFCR. Both are 2% in total.
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The company bought back 11% of shares last year, the CEO owns 17% of the company and the market drove the price down when $SND just updated the agreement that was already in place since 2016. Just think about it, the company is now trading for around 50% of liquidation value
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Also, huge thanks to
@blondesnmoney
@kingdomcapadv
@InaTailHedged
@twaddle_inc
@oracleof90402
@ClarkSquareCap
@LionheartInves1
@AKWilk
@gw_investing
@puppyeh1
@turtlebay_io
@IdeaHive247
@LukeWolgram
for posting amazing content and sharing really valuable knowledge! 🩷
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Last year I managed to make approx. 30% total portfolio return.
2023 marks my fourth year of using deep value. For those 4 years my CAGR is around 35%. I consider this a great success.
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@ClarkSquareCap
[1/2] SND, trading at about 30% of book, or about 60% of liquidation value (or less, my calcs were conservative), was profitable in the past but their sand (Northern White) went out of favour; it has superior qualities and it seems like the return to NW is inevitable
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Dear $NAII holders and value investors in general, I came across an interesting thing in $NAII's 10-K that I cannot explain - it's probably the lack of knowledge on my side, but it may as well be an accounting error (doubt that though).
Why does the share count differ here?
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To be honest never in my investing career have I felt so complete and certain with any picks, as I feel with these ones.
I'd like to thank all of you again for building such an amazing community. You've made me a lot of money, and I hope I can reciprocate by posting stuff too
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In this portfolio we have:
$7122, $5958, $5921, $8046, $9066, $6964, $5997, $7902, $6360, $7399, $5697, $3435, $5660, $5658, $9845, $4224, $2108, $9312, $8881, accounting for 28% of all the capital invested.
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Buybacks are the same as regular stock picking. Many people don't realize that.
Buybacks DO add more value IF the shares bought back are undervalued, meaning buybacks ARE good if you can buy $1 of value for $0.80, but ARE NOT good if you buy $1 of value for $1.20.
The
list of all U.S. companies that have spent more in buybacks over the last five years than their current market cap...Feel sorry for the long-term shareholders that believed the mantra "buybacks return value"
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I'd like to thank you all for being, rather unknowingly, a part of this. I really appreciate reading the work some of you create and share which is both inspiring and, moreover, free of charge!😂🩷
If even one of you has made money because of my tweets, I consider this a success.
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Anyone here did a A-Z in any way recently, OTC, US markets, international, etc.?
If so, how many interesting stocks have you found in today's market?
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@InvestSpecial
$RELL is a never-ending turnaround. I've heard talks of positive earnings / cashflow for years now - the money is always just around the corner
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The last part are my Japanese net-nets that I mostly stole from an investor a lot smarter than me,
@AltayCapital
. His work on Japanese stocks is just incredible and deserves a HUGE thank you.
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I've decided I will stay faithful to my original method of holding mostly high conviction picks with larger allocation, rather than many more less convincing ones with 1-2% allocation. It suits me better, it seems.
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@chasericker3
So I'd say your 120-140M is quite correct. On top of that, they one of the leaders of Northern White frac sand around Wisconsin and have a huge earnings potential if the current market trends reverse. I'll post a writeup on it soon
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I aim to have about 20-30 companies in my portfolio. I plan on doing some writeups on them soon, the first one of which will probably be on my biggest position - $SND. Right now, it's about 25% of my portfolio, a large one I agree, but I feel really certain about the case here.
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historically the company has been profitable, although margins are tight; share buybacks are in place, but no insider trading, also low probability of short-term liquidity issues due to cash on hand & availability of $11M credit line
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inflationary pressures further degrading the margins,
possible recession risks negatively impacting the share price
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$SENEA (7%), I had this one on watch, but pulled the trigger only some time after finding this article: . It’s a great read! SENEA is basically a hidden net-net that’s at the same time quite profitable (rare to have those two at the same time)
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All of us knew it would eventually happen, but none could prepare.
Rest in peace, Mr. Munger.
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$SIMO & $MXL merger just got approved by SAMR! this is my highest annual gain ever! I bought stock for 2% of my portfolio at an average price of $59 exactly 7 days ago lol
happy for all shareholders ❤️
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@eriksen_tim
It's just ridiculous what great opportunities one can find on the expert market... Good work
@eriksen_tim
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escalating quickly, +87.5%
$ORCH.L +75% for people lucky enough to have bought for 16p somewhere in the past month.
Still looks cheap at around 30% book value.
Still waiting for an inevitable buyout / tender offer.
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The next ones are:
$CURN (10%), a great situation I found with the help of (highly recommend the site). It’s basically a very promising currency exchange company that has potential to expand really quickly and has a really interesting business model.
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$MESA up 70% in after market after new agreement with United Airlines
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most notable risks:
customer concentration (if any of the bigger ones leave revenue will most definitely take a great hit, although $NAII has a long track record of staying profitable, even though things of this sort happened a few times in the past)
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@chasericker3
$SND bought a lot of cheap assets after the covid crash, as many of their competitors were going broke. It's the nature of this business that they'll have the majority of tangible value in fixed assets. How I see it is that the liquidation value is closer to $3.5 on the safe side
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And of course we can't forget the fintwit baby - $SENEA.
I regret not placing a larger bet on that one. It looked like a dream and, frankly, that is partly what caused me to stay so cautious . Started as an 8% allocation (today it's 10%), with 46% return in a matter of months.
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everyone investing in Japanese cigar butts should do that too
Shareholders should contact IR for their Japanese co's trading at discounts asking why they aren't on this list. I did for my port with respectful emails (JP via ChatGPT) asking what customers and biz partners would think about them ignoring rules. Super friendly /w link to rules
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huge thanks to
@chasericker3
for pitching the stock, I highly recommend watching his analysis!
@ExpectedValues
has some nice thoughts too!
gonna be my new buy as soon as the market opens
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The link to the Disposition Guidelines:
The link to the 2023 Impact Report:
And the general link to the ECIP part of the US Treasury website:
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As expected, $KTTA tender offer worked out just fine, netting a 16.7% return in about a month (still waiting for the money to be paid out though). Happy for all who profited :)
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A closer look at the guys seen in The Big Short.
"What struck them the most was how easily one could identify situations where the market mispriced potential outcomes, situations that were likely to end in one of two dramatic ways"
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@InvestSpecial
I remember the last time they announced a similar deal. It smelled like a value trap from a mile away. There should be plenty of comments on old Seeking Alpha articles.
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