Dheeraj on Tech & Investing
@DheerajNam
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$RGS | $ACIC | $CZBS | $LQDA | $DRX.TO | $HFG | $HMM.A | $FNCH | $SEG | Nano-Cap Canadian REITs
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$RGS really reminds me of Ted Weschlers Valassis bet. Sub to
@dirtcheapstocks
to read about the investment thesis and how much it went up for the Buffett lieutenant. I approximate $RGS 4.16x ‘25 EV/EBITDA and 3x ‘25 P/FCF. For a Nasdaq listed US company with massive NOLs and an
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@HarryTHop
@ajplus
I thought this was just me, didn't realize this was a core part of everyone's education.
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@thecaptain_nemo
Figure out a drug that can do the opposite and I have 2 Bn people you could sell that drug to.
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Wow has anyone ever heard about this? Buffett issued convertible preferreds in Berkshire when it was trading at a 60% premium to book to buy convertible preferreds of other undervalued business. Effectively going short Berkshire and long other cheaper companies. He collected the
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@buccocapital
Something else to consider is that everyone has an implicit prenup, it’s the state. Why would you want the state to dictate these terms instead of yourself?
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@BlackonWallSt
@HarryTHop
@ajplus
Hard to believe a reply that gets almost as many likes as the original post is an outlier experience. Seems like this was a part of some standard syllabus.
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@TrungTPhan
@assumestupidity
Well he funded those purchases with borrowed yen so he's up on that currency leg of the trade and down on the equity.
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$RGS trading at ~3x 2026 FCF with a guaranteed reinvestment return by reducing debt at 14% interest rate. Capital light franchise business selling an essential service(haircuts) at a low price. Just had 32 a share of debt forgiven.
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$ACIC with a MASSIVE consensus beat of almost 100% beat. 0.25 estimate vs 0.48 actual. Annualized you can buy a high quality insurer at an earnings yield of approx. 20%. Interboro sold as well, can’t believe it’s so cheap still.
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@TrungTPhan
He's probably sold even more after that announcement - wouldn't be surprised if he accelerated in anticipation of knowing that market participants finally found out about his unwinding - insane!
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$RGS add on every dip, by far best opportunity in the US market IMO.
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Side note $HFG the factor 75 product is so good. I reordered and don’t mind paying full price and I’m a buyer who always weighs price vs value. Someone else in my four unit apartment is also subscribed. Caught this delivery van making plenty more deliveries in my nyc
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$WED.V soon to have 25 percent more in cash than the whole market cap. Planning on sending capital back to shareholders via special dividends or potential buybacks. Seems like a sure fire way to get a 25 percent return over the next 1.5 to 2 years.
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Want to get better at investing, read all 312 pages here:
Side Note: I'm 1/10th of the way through and slowly making my way.
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$ACIC faces two major risks:
1. Extrinsic existential threat (e.g., massively catastrophic hurricane) -
@BillAckman
's key concern for such companies.
2. Faster-than-expected softening of the hard market.
Without compelling upside, these risks make it potentially uninvestible,
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I cannot believe $HFG trades at an EV/EBITDA of 2.
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$RGS needs more volume. It’s being pushed around by just $40k.
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New top position update: 1. $ACIC, 2: $HMM.A, 3: $LQDA, 4: $DRX.TO. Had to sell $SPHR, $OPRA and $BELFB to raise the funds for the new position. Also dropped a tracking amount into the latest
@dirtcheapstocks
writeup.
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Investing is nice in terms of making money, but I genuinely love this hobby. I would do exactly what I was doing now even if I wasn't making money (as long as I get to keep a score on my returns).
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Based on CBOE order book data, $11584 dollars is all it would take for the ask to be taken above $22.27 for $RGS. Good results this morning, in line with what I expected - good to hear that the loyalty program during experimental phase brought a ~3.4% uplift in revenue which will
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$PLTR trades at 25x sales and grew its top line of 2 Bln at 27%.
$HFG trades at 0.1x sales with 8bln in revenue with a 2Bln revenue segment growing at 50%.
Is $HFG only worth 1/250th $PLTR with a bigger top line and 400M of depressed EBITDA?
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Sad to see $LQDA down today but at least we know we have an approval and we know when it will happen. Just a waiting game now - some opportunity cost but if this is the 6x opportunity I think it is I can wait 9 more months.
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$RGS, 10x FCF of 10M -> 100M equity value. Discount by 50 percent for an MOS still 25% gain here. 10x EV/EBITDA seems reasonable for a franchise beauty business with recent debt reduction -> 25 M EBITDA so 250 M EV with 80M net debt 170 M market cap. Discount by 50 % for MOS so
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@patientinvestt
Fantastically cheap businesses, check out write up on Columbia’s Graham and Doddsville
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$HFG is insanely undervalued - a midpoint AEBITDA of 350MM on a now 1.3 B business is insane when Factor75 is growing as fast as it is.
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$ACIC a better buy every day, scooping up shares as I go along.
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Purchased a starter position in $LQDA. It's a better drug delivery mechanism than the incumbent, if we conservatively give a 50% chance of a 50% market share - we expect a 2.5 Billion dollar market cap company as a result. Let's then haircut this by 50% for a Margin of Safety -
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@dunne_insights
Less so a boycott of American goods as it is an indictment on American car value proposition compared to Chinese EVs. It’s a competitive market, create the best products at the cheapest prices to win - the Chinese have clearly done that.
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Incredible post by Dan Schum at his Blog NoNameStocks on $IEHC.
Salient Metrics as provided:
Stock at $6.3.
Market Cap $15m.
2.38m Shares Outstanding.
$4.9m Cash.
$21.3m Book Value.
TTM revenue $19.8m
Not profitable at the moment but has been in the past.
I am long a few
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@marginofdanger
Thanks for the detailed breakdown, need to review but looks compelling. Saw this mentioned on
@ToffCap
Monday Monitor.
Also funny, but I can see the tin building out of my window since I just moved to seaport - would be cool to be a part owner!
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Book value per common share increased 18.3% from $3.61 at December 31, 2023, to $4.27 at March 31, 2024. $ACIC
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Trying to build some conviction around $HFG this weekend. The opportunity seems interesting but I hate investing in currently unprofitable businesses. The inflection is where the money is made though - sigh.
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Interesting screen I just ran: $AMR, $DRX.TO, $EDI.WA, $HCC, $HMM.A, $RBW.WA
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I think if you’re running less than 10M dollars AUM it’s silly to look in the market caps above 5B. Unless of course you find a no brainer.
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$HFG Factor “the second fastest growing DTC brand next to SHEIN”
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I still see no better risk/reward in the market today than $ACIC. It’s mind bogglingly the best opportunity in the market. Please try to disprove me with an alternative name and I’ll tell you why I think AmCoastal is better. This is taking into account expected payoff as well as
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Most undervalued stock I know of in the market with strong insider alignment as well as high quality management. $ACIC
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Took a look at
@marketplunger1
thesis on $GENK and I'm sold. I like eating there because the value is unmatched. I assumed that they were taking a loss because of the value but looks like they are a better business valuation wise than I thought.
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Incredible that $KNSL trades at a 25 PE with a combined ratio in the 77 range whereas $ACIC trades at LTM PE of around 7 with a combined ratio in the 60s. If $ACIC makes around 4 dollars next year which it certainly could do and has a combined ratio of around 60, I could justify
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I ran my usual screening metrics (proprietary) and look what showed up as number one again. $HMM.A and $HMFAF. On pure numbers this is the best non OTC stock in North America in my view. This ought to be a 6 bagger.
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Bought a little $INMD with the thesis that the new CEO has better capital allocation abilities and will pursue buybacks.
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@typicalcapital
The few that come to mind are the fab5 from
@evfcfaddict
.
@joinyellowbrick
has a super investor section. Anything by
@JonCukierwar
. Anything by
@Fairlight_Cap
. This is inspiring me to make a thread on investors I follow. (I read a lot more than just these folks)
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Never really understood the $AEP.V hype to be honest.
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Why do people like this $PAR thesis? So many things have to go right for it to work, plus here is this line at the end that automatically kills it for me: "We take our Base Case model and apply a 27x 2026 EBITDA multiple"
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Looks like insurance names, $IGIC, and $ACIC are inflecting up. I've been looking into $IGIC and I feel like the margin of safety is higher here, but $ACIC has potential to go higher due to lower combined ratio, increased hard market rates in florida and potential peak earnings
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A new idea that I've decided to post for free! Paid members get some more info at the end including price targets and some more information on why $LQDA is a compelling idea. Check out my publication and please subscribe. Consider becoming a paid member to receive other
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@QCompounding
Rule 1 - don’t lose money.
Rule 2 - don’t forget rule 1.
Always invest with a margin of safety - whether that is asset based or valuation based.
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Another Michael Burry add to $ACIC. Even though I don’t really take stock in his 13F.
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Who hosts a management call behind a pay wall on a substack? $CPH.TO
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If $LQDA does get sold I wonder what price it would fetch. $32 would be nice.
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Started a small position in $BNED. This could be a rocket - it fits into my recent basket of bankrupt companies that have refinanced.
I will quote
@Toffcap
here: "After the massively dilutive arrangement to equitize the 2L (second lien) holders and infuse more equity, the
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Almost closed out my $IONQ short today. Glad I didn’t.
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Bought a starter position in $SEG. $25 backstop by ackman and extreme discount to NAV gives a good margin of safety here.
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I made over a 103% last calendar year. Check out my new positions on my website in my bio.
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Will admit it’s crazy how the highest performers on fintwit have completely free content and give out their ideas for free. Goes to show the best things in life truly are free.
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Wow, the PV of the 556 M in NOLs for $RGS assuming used over 10 years with a 10% discount rate and a 21% tax rate is $72M. Thats more than the current market cap today.
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Funny how when price turns negative so does sentiment provided no fundamentals have changed. Should be the opposite. I’m looking at your $DRX.TO
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I’m the entire bid for this stock I ~really~ want more shares of. 3x upside built in today almost a no-brainer buy. If I get desperate I might meet the ask.
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There is an incredible type of business that is valued cheaply and will likely continue to become better as migration trends stay on their trendline. I may make a write-up on this theme of equities soon.
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Ahh yes $PLTR the cheap company trading at 30x sales.
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$IONQ is such a fraud it makes me sick seeing retail investors lose their money.
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Slowly adding to my already large $ACIC position at these prices.
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$ACIC remains the best US opportunity I can see.
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If anyone can justify something that’s a bigger slam dunk please reply with the name and why. I’ll sell my $RGS but until then I’m long and strong.
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Merger Arb: $PARA, Community Banks: $CZBS, Microcap: $CYAN, $NAII, $PWS, Bankruptcy/Spinoff: $ACIC, Index-Orphaned: $SENEA (prev. held), I'll add regulatory change: $LQDA
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$CRAWA is my next target to sink some money into.
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Incredible post by Dan Schum at his Blog NoNameStocks on $IEHC.
Salient Metrics Here as provided in the article:
The stock is now at $6.30
market cap $15m
2.38m shares outstanding
$4.9m cash
$21.3m book value
TTM revenue $19.8m
not profitable at the
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Side note, $DRX.TO looks to have hit a bottom here.
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$RGS ANOTHER 8% explosion today. Still cheap, hop on the rocketship (obv do your own due diligence).
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@ClarkSquareCap
Still convinced $ACIC will start moving up from an implied 3x ‘24 PE next quarter since its LTM numbers will finally be clean.
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$CVNA. Interesting results, anecdotally I’ve never heard anyone I know of suggest or even use the service. It’s an extremely competitive and tight auto market right now so I’m very surprised that they were able to bring margins this high on such a commoditized business. I have to
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Furthermore, sold some of my smaller positions and trimmed my larger positions to make $RGS my new largest position. Risk/Reward here is too great to not capitalize.
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Now selling for estimated NTM P/FCF of 3.4x. Crazy.
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Now what makes $HMM.A or $ACIC special over other stocks that trade at a 10x or low PE? Their stock price has been rapidly appreciating. When a stock price is on an upward trajectory it's a sign that the market has begun to appreciate the value of the company so the rerating
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Chase Ricker inspired the following post. Check it out in the link in bio for a free but tough to action idea.
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@SPACMAN17
I would also refer to the following list of recommendations that can greatly improve EBITDA (17M), I think $RGS is not slightly but egregiously underpriced at today's market price.
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@joinyellowbrick
@finance_schmidt
@smantel
@ragnarisapirate
Good time to add before earnings next Wednesday. Also down big today.
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$HMM.A punching up on the back of $HPS.A. Hammond Power trades at nearly 4x the valuation of Hammond manufacturing. I know where I’ve placed my bets.
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$PARA with a new merger agreement of paying off the B shareholders 15 dollars. I don't know if it'll go through as I'm sure many investors have a higher cost basis and want more - but since my cost basis is around the current price I'm happy to ride this out to see what happens.
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$ACIC moving up over the last few days. Still incredibly undervalued here at $10.
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@ClarkSquareCap
$TISG NTM EV/EBITDA 7x. Builds luxury yachts with large backlog and 3 YR EPS CAGR of 34%, LTM ROIC of 23.5%. Compelling valuation for a quality business
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Slightly upped $LQDA this morning. Hoping for an fda approval today or Monday.
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Today's interesting find - $CLRI, they make a product for law enforcement to communicate via radio. Announced an acquisition today as well. Trades at 4M market cap but can be scooped up for 2.5M if lucky. P/E of 3 based on FY 22 numbers, not so good based on FY23 numbers. Lots of
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EBITDA guidance of 300-400M so on the low end $HFG trades at a P/S of 0.125 and an EBITDA multiple of around 3.33. Insane for a business that has a 500M revenue segment growing at 50%.
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@DeepSailCapital
$DBA. Tracks cocoa futures and they’re steadily on a decline after a massive run up. $DBA should and is following the downward trend.
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In my opinion I peg conservative fair value at $20.
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$acic finally breaking out of the 10/11 range. Best and top idea I have right now.
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