Jeff Moore
@ragnarisapirate
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Stocks and real estate. I talk gooder than I tweet. #ESG is stupid.
Lexington, Kentucky
Joined May 2012
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Some thoughts on $RGS.
IF the company is worth 7x EBITDA (after the Zenoti payment takes debt down to… call it $80m)- that's a $66 share price if they can do $35m in EBITDA (which ain't a stretch).
7x at $35m estimated EBITDA = $245m market cap. Less $80m of debt = $165m
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@sweatystartup
I, too, switched out the LED bulbs in my house for regular 60-watt incandescent bulbs. But it wasn't for better sleep:
It was so I would have to grind harder to pay the electric bill.
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@DebraMessing
The difference between small pox and Covid is HUGE. They are hardly comparable. Comparing them would be like saying “well, we vaccinate for the flu- sO We NeEd ToO FoR ThE CoMmOn COLD!”
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This Gabelli letter the most Aspergery style of activism that I've ever seen. $SPWH
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I've never seen $HD with this much inventory. It's insane. Nature has healed. So much so that inventories have probably developed a keilod scar.
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Here is an ancient Appalachian fire accellerating technique that my people have handed down from generation to generation.
A leaf blower.
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@RyanAFournier
@FBI
This is one of the reasons the second amendment was created- that person only indicates that they want to protect themselves.
More power to them.
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I am pretty sure I’ve stumbled on a stock that is trading for 1x 2021 projected EBITDA and it is NOT over levered. Thinly traded, but the market cap is well more than $100mm. First person to guess the name, gets a cool microcap/shitco themed prize. :)
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First time I’ve ever been kicked off a conference call! I can check that off my list.
OMG this $EXCE call is lit
@ragnarisapirate
Jeff: Why won't you provide public financials so that the stock can keep trading OTC after the SEC rule change?
Co: We won't tell you that
Jeff: You really should
Co: We won't
Jeff: I must insist
Co: Fuck off
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A fellow RE investor in just had a Waffle House pull out of a development deal during the due diligence phase. The reasoning they gave? The unemployment rate in Lexington is TOO LOW for them to retain good staff, and people make too much for their waffles to be in demand.
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$TPHS is an asset-rich company (nearly $300m) that seems left for dead.
They are exploring strategic alternatives and have $500m in NOLs.
The market cap? Under $20m.
Interview of CEO Matt Messinger (he's a sharp guy!):
Writeup:
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“The finest candlemakers in the world couldn’t even think of electric lights…”
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Ok. So, when everyone was freaking out about maybe not being able to sell Russian ADRs, I bought some Gazprom and Sberbank $ogzpy $sbrcy. Paid ~$1.20 per ADR I think.
A few weeks later my custodian took them out of my account and put them in a pool that I think I have a claim to
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@marketplunger1
This will be the biggest strain ever on their friendship. This guy could bang his friends wife and it would probably end less badly than this boat will.
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@MattWalshBlog
I’ve seen a lot of bad tattoos… but that state of California on her arm is now on top of the list.
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Something that amazes me is how by today's standards- literally everyone 100 years ago was living in what we now consider poverty.
We (especially in the west) are so lucky to be alive right now.
And it's even more amazing to think of all the changes that all the olds have seen.
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@_sweet_cleats_
@MattWalshBlog
Same for me and my girlfriend. Thanks for doing the good Lord’s work,
@MattWalshBlog
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Looks like me and 2 buddies are buying an old rural hospital to convert into housing… this is going to be a super fun project! Purchase price for this old ~30 bed facility? $100K.
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@carolkgarey1
@SeanLangille
It's not about wealth. It's about the rule of law and honoring contracts. Those things make society function.
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What's cool about this is Munger did this AFTER THE COMPANY WAS WRITTEN UP IN BARRONS...
Literally everyone in the world was told about this stoxk- and yet, Munger bought a large amount of the company and did amazingly well.
It wasn't a particularly small company, and it isn't
How Charlie Munger made 8x in 4 years on a below-average cyclical:
In his words, his research took him "about an hour and a half."
In 2001, shares of Tenneco, a manufacturer of shock absorbers and emissions control products, fell from a previous high of $50 to $1.5-2.
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Going into the new year, my top 5 positions:
$THRYW (no market)
$AAMC (currently suspended from NYSE trading)
$TTSH (stock & calls)
$EXCE (grey market O&G shitco)
$MNDJF (Canadian Jr Miner shitco)
Definitely a setup for some insane volatility... 😬
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Here is my newest post on my favorite investment: $THRY Warrants and $THRY stock. There are a lot of really good things going on, that seem to add up to a really interesting bet.
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Walking through a multi unit a buddy and I are buying, and I am pretty sure we walked into a gold mine! 🪵🪵🪵
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I’m shocked more people aren’t tweeting about the $RICK conference call. To channel
@Adam_Wyden
dropping f-bombs on it: it was pretty fucking awesome!
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For entrepreneurs, scalability is key. Unless you've made a scalable business, you'll just entrepreneur yourself into having another job.
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Have you ever had a tenant jump through the glass of a window in a domestic dispute, get pulled back in, and then bleed all over your rented house?
I have.
I got a call one night from a tenant. She said, “JEEEEEFFFFFFFFFF, it's Dana. Me and Tony got in a fight, and he's on the
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Yesterday I got a call from a number I didn't recognize from Washington DC. Most times it's spam, but I also get a lot of calls from people I don't know- so I answered, “this is Jeff.”
“Hello! Jeff, this is Mohammed- I sold you a rug in Morocco a few years ago- how are you?!”
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Thryv $THRY: It's a "Melting Iceberg" and a compelling SaaS business that seems incredibly undervalued. Frankly, I think it is the most interesting security that I own. Here is my write up.
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Reading this shitpost brought a up a fond memory of my Uncle Charlie to mind.
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I’m constantly amazed at all the things $AMZN is trying to change, how they seem to do it all at once, and with unrelated items... Cabinet pulls have always been high margin items for $HD & suppliers, but who in the hell would think to push margin suppression? $AMZN thats who.
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@sinstockpapi
$THRY. It’s a bet on SMBs getting in the cloud and growing their businesses using SaaS. ~$1.1bb market cap right now (conveniently about 1/10th of $GME) and generating loads of cash from their legacy business. SUPER sharp management.
Me & some people’ll get tattoos at $250/shr.
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Every day, dozens, if not hundreds, or thousands of employees are dedicating 100% of their work time to make the companies we invest in, better.
I feel like this is underappreciated not only from a long thesis point of view, but also on a human level.
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I'm curious what the next contrarian sector bet will be.
I'm talking like it's just left for fucking dead as oil’d been. Where for a few months, people literally price things as if the sector has no worth ever again.
Office doesn't seem to fit the bill yet?
Any predictions?
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The CEO of $AAMC now has a compensation structure where for every 3 shares of stock that the company buys back, he gets a share.
This is literally the most powerful incentive structure I have ever seen.
And the float of $AAMC is super low. 2 shareholders own ~56% of shares.
Show me the incentives and I will show you the results.
One thing is VERY clear: $AAMC will be buying back LOTS of stock.
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To say that I am excited about my business becoming part of $SYTE is an understatement!
@Steven_Kiel
@JkleinG
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Picked this $BVERS stock certificate up from FedEx today. I guess that this one of the effects of the grey market and SEC rule 15c2-11?
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2 years ago, I bailed a contractor out of jail- today, I finally got my money back. It was kind of a weird situation- so here’s the story...
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People are giving him shit over this…
We have 4 remote workers from the Philippines.
Today, one of them while on our weekly call, about cried when he told us he and his fiancé were finally able to get married, and are buying a house, because of the money they are now making.
Hired our 9th employee working US hours remotely from the Philippines today.
Insanely competent and will help us make our underwriting and acquisitions process even more efficient.
Unlocking overseas talent is taking our business to another level.
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I want to buy some $baba just because of all the shit talking going on. 😂
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Bonhoeffer Capital's first letter from Keith Smith! Excellent Friday night reading. Good work to all mgmt @ $SYTE !
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Just got this monster of a house on contract for house for $46k! It’s a 4-5 bedrooms, 2 baths, with office, living room, dining room, and kitchen. Despite its rough exterior (only 50% has paint 😬), the inside is surprisingly nice.
Planning to invest $35k on windows, siding, and
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@RepThomasMassie
It is amazing to me that the rest of the US pronounces it the opposite way of all of its residents.
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My brother
@JMooreofKY
owns part of a couple hydro dams on the Kentucky River and is installing more generation in several locks.
A few days ago- he took me and
@clint_edgington
to look at a few of them! One is even in an Opportunity Zone.
In the distance, they talk 🌊⚡
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Interesting letter from Q4 of Bonhoeffer Capital Management. Keith Smith (Packer on Corner of Berkshire and FairFax) never disappoints! Love Cement Cos and RE in Asia!
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Ever wonder how to see if a house is well insulated? Look at the roof when it snows. I own the one on the left- had spray foam put in the crawl and a foot of cellulose in the attic, over top of the rolled fiberglass. The one on the right? Not mine & just has original insulation.
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The more I read this proxy, the more I like this deal where Davidson Kempner is buying ~40% of $TPHS for $.30/shr while the stock is trading at ~$.17/shr. One would think that they see value here…
This transaction involves taking ALL of the company's debt away from Topco,
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Here is the jury verdict for everyone following $MEEC. (1/3)
Now, to find out from the judge if treble damages apply! I think there is a decent chance they will.
Add this pile in with the settlements from $AJG and
@DTE
, as well as coming contracts and new water tech, and I
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@Aeneas43
@CollinRugg
@ChrisDJackson
Prolly has more to do with the fact that you can only buy handguns in the state in which you reside.
I suppose he could have bought the gun, had it shipped to Florida, done the background check, and picked it up tho.
Plus the inditement stuff. BUT, he can still possess any
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One of the best things I ever did was build the deck behind my house around a tree one of my buddies planted (on the hottest day of summer. 😂🤦♂️).
We framed the deck so I could remove joists as the tree grew.
It started super tiny- and after 11 years (and a fair bit of
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🚀🚀🚀🚀 THIS IS A ~$4MM PURCHASE OF $THRY 🚀🚀🚀🚀 OTC Dynamics | $THRY Thryv, Inc. CEO and President Joe Walsh Purchases Block of Shares of Thryv Common Stock from Mudrick Capital
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Our shower curtain rods, just like everything in our houses, are built to last. We make them out of all-thread, plumbing flanges, and electrical conduit.
If they can't support you for a pull up- they weren't installed right.
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I finally saw the new Mario Bros movie and it was amazing.
I'm simultaneously not wanting to be and wanting to be the guy that buys $NTDOY stock because he liked the movie.
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Want a compelling setup? $PFMT.
@chcap2016
has done a ton of work on it- reminds me of $THRY or $DFIN b/c there’s a shitty business covering up a good one. Plus, there’s an uneconomic seller, like at $TTSH.
There MAY be a coming guest post on Ragnar is a Pirate about it… 😏
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Channel check: $TTSH
I ordered some backsplash a few weeks ago. It got in on Monday.
They called me daily to try to get me to pick it up- I asked for a few weeks. They then offered free delivery.
Turns out they have no room in the warehouse.
I sold all my $TTSH today.
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Earlier today, I adopted a VERY underweight Treeing Walker Coonhound and I don’t know what to call him.
Y’all have any suggestions?
Our last walker was named “Bill,” our two other dogs are named “Nancy” and “Dagny,” and my dog before that was named “Don.” So, the general theme
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You know what I love? Open cell spray foam insulation in walls. Really seals up old houses!
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Here’s a mock up of the tattoo I’ll get if $THRY gets to $250/share by close of business on August 15th, 2023. It’s
@Thryv
/
@realyellowpages
/
@DexKnows
/
@Superpages
CEO Joe Walsh killing a bear with a
@YellowPagesInc
phone book- done with some Garbage Pail Kids styling. 😏
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Sooooooo. When will all the Reddit traders realize that $RICK is heavily shorted and has a pretty small float?
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I've been working on a house in rural Kentucky for the last 2 years in my free time. It's a labor of love, and most of the work I'm doing there won’t have economic payback. But it's fun and has been intellectually stimulating.
Today, while I was putting up some cedar shiplap, a
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I'm watching an hour-long video on the SR-71. One of the amazing things about the plane is the J58 engine. It has these inlet spikes on the front of the engine that control the way that shockwaves interact with the plane. There is a computer that adjusts the depth of the spike
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Once when I was doing some scuttlebutt on a micro cap that we eventually went activist on- I found the then CEO left a handwritten sign for a neighbor at one of the company’s houses- supposedly for sale or rent.
I wanted to put this in our proxy- but our counsel wasn't a fan...
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My friend
@ChrisOlin
discloses a new position in $AAMC and sees a path to $30/share in earnings...
He also talks about $FRG. 😎
Here's the link if you don't want to read my screen shots. :)
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Whatever happens with Twitter, I just know that I'm NOT going back to posting on the corner of Berkshire and Fairfax...
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Fat Pitch: $THRY
With recent price declines (caused by indexes selling a temporarily lowish float stock?) you’re basically getting the legacy biz at fair value w/growing SaaS biz for free.
Next year the SaaS will likely be on track for $250mm in revenue.
Price target? $100
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$PMD is freakishly cheap, it seems. Peter Kamin of $CLWY, $ROFO, & $TTSH fame recently filed a 13d on them... This is interesting, because they already implement the strategy he does- cash flow like crazy & pay out large dividends. Also- they are primed for more PPP money.
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My number one tip for finding contractors to work on houses?
Pictures.
Go to $HD, $LOW, Menards, or your local shop of choice walk the lot, and take pictures of the trucks with advertising.
Put in a shared folder for a VA to organize and call.
Here are some I saw today.
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With all these people buying plumbing and other service companies...
It looks like me and a few buddies are starting one!
Gonna be using
@Thryv
$THRY to run everything. Starting this up and figuring out “Big Blue Wrench” is going to be super fun.
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Finished up a kitchen sink cabinet.
A few notes on things I like about this:
*Cedar lined kitchen cabinet
*Shutoff to a garden hose spigot
*Dual under sink lights
*Drain cleanout
*Auxillary PEX stub outs for more fixtures if I want them.
The cedar is a HUGE but cheap upgrade
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Just got a house back from a tenant that wasn't paying rent.
It was perfect when they moved in. And now… not so much.
Real estate is passive.
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You heard it here first! $RICK is probably starting another breastaurant with literally the sleaziest name ever: “knockers bar and grill”
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@sassybibrarian
@DebraMessing
I don't need to. My girlfriend works at one of those overrun hospitals. She's burnt out- but she agree with me on this, because COVID doesn't have a death rate of 30% like small pox does...
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I'm very curious what a bunch of A-10 Warthogs could do against this.
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Flight got delayed by an hour, but I ran into and got to hang with the troll n’ chief of fin-twitter:
@ScottMONEYHall
! Great time!
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Love the newest letter from
@alluvialcapital
.
Especially the Kamin shout out. :)
I don't know if Dave owns any $TTSH, but he sums up a lot of my thinking, in his letter: "I never have to worry about idle cash with Peter Kamin-controlled companies..."
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@DadInvest
Rowing or discus. Maybe an outside shot at the hammer throw.
If you move back to the homeland- he’d have an entire river to himself to practice rowing on now that there are so few barges carrying coal.
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My favorite securities at the moment? Sachem Capital $SACH & its baby bonds $SACC & $SCCB. They are a hard money lending mREIT, that has been thrown out with the REIT bath water, yet, is MUCH safer & cheaper. $SACH is like $LOAN, but with more cash!
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It may be my Appalachian roots- but I truly cannot imagine a world without Big Lots. And the sell off seems... Like a lot.
Because of this, I'm really worried that I'm getting ready to make a terrible mistake by buying $BIG stock.
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My air conditioning went out about 30 minutes ago, but I replaced the capacitor, and everything is cool again.
If you're looking for a lesson on testing capacitors- and some other Hvac background- here you go.
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New guest post on Ragnar Is A Pirate by
@ChrisOlin
on Currency Exchange International $CURN / $CXI. It’s a super cool recovery play that has not recovered in price. PLUS- it has a super fast growing business in it. Super cool find, Chris!
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@HansMahncke
Narrator: No, it wasn’t. But the media would have said it was if the previous president had done it.
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I read Marty Whitman’s book in 2010 or so- seems like it might be time to dust the cobwebs off of it and brush up on BKs?
Any suggestions for other texts?
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It’s been a while since I've bought a house for $15k. But I just got this beauty under contract!
Just look at this gem with 7’ ceilings and the electrical wires ripped out!
I’m guessing a $60k renovation will fix this up pretty nicely and then it will rent for $850-$1200 when
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Joe Walsh talking about how $THRY is being valued as a phone book co, is cheap, & when it transitions to SaaS valuations they can do some interesting SaaS acquisitions- nice to have good allocators running the show!
Also- excuse my doggo snoring during the screen record! 😂🐕🐾
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Most investors would kill to have a company so clearly lay out their capital allocation policy like this.... yet, they aren’t bidding $RICK up to a reasonable valuation? It seems super cheap at the moment.... 🤷♂️
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Fuck. This. Guy... Some of the smartest people I’ve ever met, with by far, the best problem solving skills, were farmers.
Bloomberg on why farmers can’t work in information technology
MB: “I can teach anyone how to be a farmer 1 dig a hole 2 put a seed in 3 put dirt on top 4 add water 5 up comes the corn”
The skill 4information technology is completely different you need more grey matter
#farmers
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