arian ghashghai
@arian_ghashghai
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Investing pre-seed in ar/vr, robotics, ai @EarthlingVC | ex-ai/ml engineer @Meta @RealityLabs | tifoso @ScuderiaFerrari
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"Meta ditched VR and pivoted to AI"
I hear this assertion a lot, but it's off-target. These are symbiotic developments and Meta knows that.
Given the understood impact of AI, a very brief AI-centric deduction of why new (i.e. 3D) hardware is a necessity for AI advancement:
-
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This was the first breakout iPhone app fwiw
What do you think will be the first breakout Vision Pro app?
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30 minutes into Vision Pro ownership, and I have no interest in using my Quest again.
Will make observations below 🧵
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Fairly convinced wearing the AVP at home looks less absurd than wearing the new Spectacles outside
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I quit my high-salary FB job a year ago to start a fund.
pros:
- insane step up in network. role models become peers.
- do meaningful work all the time (and I get to dictate it)
- my job is to talk to interesting people
- way bigger long-term upside (I'm *someone* in VC while
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@growing_daniel
Forget Russia, it's worth questioning why food in US grocery stores is more expensive than anywhere in the world but qualitatively worse than anywhere else that's remotely developed.
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The fact that many VCs believed that email and browser-based agents were durable startup opportunities is some evidence that LPs allocate to the wrong people a lot of the time.
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AVPs sitting in Apple Stores will sell more VR headsets than most people can imagine
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The reason Ai Pin is (predictably) getting crushed in reviews:
- >$200M raised in VC
- Big name founding team
- Hubris and arrogance, but totally flat presentation…
… and then still delivering an unusable product.
It’s an embodiment of the ills in VC specifically
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@Austen
This is because — I assume — most people were on autopay, the govt required you to manually restart it, and the communication was really poor. I missed my first payment for this reason only
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Vision Pro feels more like a replacement for my Macbook and TV than it does for my Quest
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No HMD should ever ship without eye tracking ever again.
“Look and tap” should be standard. No buttons, beams and positioning a little circle on what you want to click
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The passthrough and UI is leaps and bounds incomparable to Meta.
I set up my AVP while doing the dishes— it worked flawlessly
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Meta paused the Quest Pro
Apple pausing the Vision Pro to focus on a cheaper headset.
Quest 2/3 is crushing meanwhile. The demographic for VR are not “pros” and the prosumer angle as a mass-market wedge was always a pipe dream.
The VR generation is <15 year olds today
Exclusive: Apple is suspending work on its next high-end Vision headset but still plans to launch a cheaper headset by late next year.
From
@waynema
and
@QianerLiu
.
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Reminder: With Apple’s headset widely expected to be announced at WWDC, this might be the last week that VR Twitter stays confined to the niche group of early believers.
Enjoy it, and make it count!
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Personal update: Since this isnt so "stealth" anymore, I recently quit
@Meta
and transitioned from operator-angel to full-time VC, building
@EarthlingVC
. Same investor, same thesis: pre-seed AI and AR/VR to power the next era of computing.
Why
@EarthlingVC
?
1/
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@chefjeffsf
The real question is why we don't have top-tier döner shops all over downtowns. Only NYC passes this test
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I know some people will take offense to this, but the Vision Pro is essentially a polished dev kit that's inviting early devs and adopters in. It's a magical proof of product with an underdeveloped ecosystem (== opportunity)
From a VC perspective, I'm treating it as such
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General thought:
Once you sit in a Ferrari you "get" it, and won't look at a Ford (or Tesla) the same way.
Vision Pro is the Ferrari of VR
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@yacineMTB
No better motivator than having your immigrant mom tell you you're a failure and should get a real job every day ngl
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7-day review of the Vision Pro:
I use it A LOT more (for work) than I expected.
Comfort is a valid complaint, and needs to be fixed for most, but it's hard to argue against AVP being a significantly better UX than a conventional monitor setup. Not even close
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AR/VR is not going to *replace* anything
It will be another layer on the computing stack that enable functionalities that are not viable or practical on flat screens
i.e.
Old: PC
Current: PC + phone
Next: PC + phone + AR/VR
🚨 Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg predicts smart glasses will replace phones by 2030
" Smart glasses are going to become the next major computing platform.
They will gradually replace phones by 2030, much like mobile devices surpassed computers without fully replacing them "
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Meta Connect has been more inspiring (and a more cutting-edge glimpse into the future) than YC demo day
Make of that what you will
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Layoffs justified by “AI” are PR-friendly narratives to cover business operation failures of leadership to their investors.
There’s so much bloat in tech, blaming AI is easier than admitting absurd over-hiring, self-interested middle managements chains etc
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That being said— look and tap sucks for typing.
Gonna need an actual keyboard to do meaningful work in the AVP
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tl;dr of this review: Social shared experiences are a killer VR use case (as proven on the Quest ecosystem) which Apple chose to completely neglect and is not compensated for by stronger technical specs.
Social VR is an area I continue to be extremely bullish on
NEW VIDEO - Apple Vision Pro is is an incredible piece of tech, BUT… it’s incredibly isolating. Because of the extreme lack of SHARED experiences
These are the biggest things missing from Vision Pro:
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Founders: If you ever wonder why a VC ghosts you, remember that 90% of LPs ghost that VC. Desensitizing for some
Ghosting is so prevalent across this industry that you're in the top 10% just by being consistently transparent and communicative
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This has been reported, but can confirm the solo strap sucks— it’s actually more uncomfortable than wearing a Quest 2. You REALLY feel the weight pulling your face down
The dual strap comes with the device and makes it pretty comfortable.
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The first big step towards real consumer AR
(side note, I'm amazed they've achieved this in 2024 — looked impossible when I left Meta last year)
Here’s a sneak peek at Meta’s new small form glasses, called Orion. They’re fully standalone and feature eye, hand, and even neural tracking. Can’t wait to try these!
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Many super interesting "pre-seed" (traction-wise) AI deals are closing quickly at ~$25-30M post (i.e. over-invested)
VC dealmaking is expected to pick up in 2024 (i.e. even more $ into AI)— as such I expect us to double down on VR and robotics. High impact, under-invested.
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2 months in, the biggest problem the Vision Pro has is its non-existent app ecosystem
None of my consumer VR founders are earnestly thinking about it — that’s a problem for Apple
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This has also been reported, but the FoV is a bit of a let down and where the Quest line *is* better.
Spatial video is insane, but the 180 degree FoV can kill the sense of immersion a little bit
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My mom called me last week asking if I saw the super cool new "Apple thing" (meaning Vision Pro).
She knows I worked on AR/VR at Meta for years (and even tried my Quest) and did not immediately piece together that it's the same category of device. May be true for many consumers
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AVP, with one stroke, becomes a better platform for building passthrough experiences than Quest.
Fortunately, things in VR are a race to the top at the moment
“Main camera access” for visionOS.
Apple is now more open than “Open Platform” Meta. Lol.
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The awe at Meta's Orion (much like humanoid robots) tacitly admits:
1) Current mass consumer hardware (e.g. phones) is not apt to extract max potential out of the new state of software (e.g. AI)
2) The next-gen hardware that aligns with software is 3D-native
3D is inevitable
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While he's technically mostly right, it's a total PR own goal (yet again):
- Undermines that the Quest has use cases infeasible on the AVP atm
- Meta isn't "open" (beyond using Android because they failed at their own OS)
- Looks weak for when they inevitably copy Apple's UI
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Apropos comfort— I was worried about how annoying the battery puck would be.
Surprisingly, it’s a non-factor. It’s basically the size of an iPhone, and chord is long enough for it to fit in your pocket. Not any more annoying than walking around with phone in pocket
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They've tried to convince you that "AR" is the future and VR is dead.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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I don't understand VCs that insist on market slides in pitch decks:
- It's *their* job to have a thesis on markets they care about (and don't)
- Best early investments often play in markets that don't exist yet
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@VCBrags
There is market arbitrage opportunity here.
TechBro may be dime a dozen in SF, but a hot shot in a place like DC
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Mira Murati is the peak embodiment of the Silicon Valley archetype that’s a genius in tech but sub-room temperature IQ in anything strictly non-technical
OpenAI's Mira Murati: "some creative jobs maybe will go away, but maybe they shouldn't have been there in the first place"
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I wrote this on my blog pre AVP launch. It’s happening
I’m not a part of this weak ass reality anymore. This how I’m showin up everywhere so just don’t even say anything about it when I come in the room. ITS OVER!!
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FoV is one reason I think immersive gaming will not be great on AVP.
The device really wasn’t designed for VR gaming experiences we’ve come to know
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From my experience working there:
- Execs are often FB-lifers (e.g. from Ads) "rewarded" with top RL roles for their service (nepotist)
- They hire 10x engineers, but don't listen to them
- Performance review criteria disincentivize long-term decision-making
=> dumpster fire
Who would have thought putting a bunch of Ad execs in senior positions of a "Metaverse" department and assassinating most the passionate 3rd party devs wouldn't work out?
surprised pikachu
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Just cooking eggs wearing the Vision Pro. The color of butter is weird in passthrough fwiw (very saturated). As great as the passthrough is, def not perfect (yet)
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If you want venture funding for a VR gaming studio today:
- Don't try to build AAA, f2p AA/indie is the better opp atm
- Build for Quest, not PCVR
- Ship quickly
Real traction is attainable on tiny budgets & timelines
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Re: Discord — why is this is a thing for startups?
It's the most dysfunctional mess of a messaging platform I've ever been on. Am I missing something?
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The entire "ai wearables" category is just so tiresome
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@luke_metro
@ass__prof
Imo the opposite is true— they’re so pushed to solve “nebulous” issues that they spend no time fixing deficient and over-architected systems that make it impossible to get anything done efficiently
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@Carnage4Life
Most of AI Twitter doesn’t understand that there is always a gap between research and prod that needs to be bridged, and that can be both complicated and time-consuming (and sometimes infeasible)
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Yes, early exits suck for the VC model, but—
- As a VC you *know* most of your companies won't have a meaningful exit (expected)
- The founder you backed may have just become a multi-millionaire (LFG!!!)
I'm amped that I was part of someone's journey to independent wealth
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I'm writing this tweet from my computer with my headset on in passthrough.
It's rational, but small font *is* hard to read. It also has some lag in focusing so if you're moving around quickly there can be a lot of blurriness. Might also be a me-problem idk
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If I were building for AVP, I would really think about building an app to use lying down. I watched a couple of videos lying down on my couch, and it's a 10x experience from watching on TV (comfort, quality)
Something like
@pillowsocial
will do really well on AVP
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@Saint_Dici
$300k salary is the fork in the road to greatness.
The ones that want to be great acknowledge they've won the employee game, and move to the next challenge.
The upper-end mediocre just coast to diminishing returns.
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Long-term move Meta needed to make if we assume Apple will be Apple.
I like it. Opening the store up must be the next move
BREAKING: Meta to Open Quest's Operating System to Third-party Headsets, Marking a Massive Shift in Strategy
Read the report 👉
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An underlying prediction I’m making here is that Quest 3s will (continue to) massively outsell AVP— thanks to Apple lifting the lid on VR and changing sentiment.
Plenty of new consumers will want VR, but for $3000 less
Vision Pro is a new benchmark in VR, but—
The install base is (and will foreseeably be) very small (<1M) and there is no real app ecosystem yet.
As a new builder, what new experience can you enable in VR/MR broadly (vs just for AVP)? Quest install base much bigger for now
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The most underrated tailwind of Apple entering VR is retail distribution.
Any person will be able to walk into an Apple store and try VR for the first time. The unique initial feeling of presence in the headset is what creates VR bulls— not 2d captures on the internet
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VR 🤝 Robots
VR isn't just a console, it's a cog enabling the development of agents in acting in the physical world
NVIDIA demonstrated how an Apple Vision Pro can be used to remotely control a robot. Pretty cool!
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@andrewchen
Not just a win for Asian Americans, but also non-Anglo “White” immigrant groups like Middle Easterners, Eastern Europeans etc.
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VR headsets are *not* going to replace smartphones foreseeably (and people need to stop pushing the idea that they will).
They're adding new experiences/surfaces to our existing integrated tech stack i.e. phone + pc
current: pc + phone
new: pc + phone + ar/vr
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The most common "AR/VR" company I get pitched is a no-code builder for 3D web apps (i.e. Squarespace for 3D sites). I see at least 5/week.
I don't actually believe this (i.e. making 3D for 2D browsers) will be a thing— am I missing something?
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If you see the VR market in this reductionist manner you have no idea what’s about to hit you in 2024
VR/AR headset sales the last two years
• 2022: $1.1 billion (-2% YoY)
• 2023: $664 million (-40% YoY)
Meta and Apple sweating rn
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I've ranted on here before that 3D-in-2D (e.g. mobile "AR") is not a market/opportunity.
Add WebXR to the list — no matter how hard you try, you're not going to make WebXR a thing sorry
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I've seen a lot of great MR apps proposed for Vision Pro over the last week— but I haven't seen an idea that's uniquely enabled by AVP (some might have much better UX on AVP, fair enough).
What could you do on AVP that's impossible on Quest 3?
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maybe this is also relevant context for some people reading this: I'm 29.
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Apple created the first HMD that can do everything your iPhone can do. Now devs have an opportunity to conceive and bring to market a spatial-first experience for *everything*. Huge opportunity
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I spent 3 years of my life working on AR glasses— and I'm extremely bearish consumer AR in the near term.
For now, consumer AR start-ups need to focus on generating value in an HMD or other mobile device (fwiw most 3D content on a 2D device e.g. phone is underwhelming)
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The next paradigm of computing is HERE
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As an ML engineer I say: if you're looking for technical "moat" in pre-seed AI companies, you probably shouldn't invest in pre-seed AI companies.
Speed of execution and a product that solves a valuable customer problem, thats the moat
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My first foray into coding ("tech"?) was making mods for SimCity 3000
Probably would have never gotten into computers (hence my entire career) if it wasn't for games
I think the worst thing you can do as a parent is buy a video game system for your kid.
No worse habit in the world.
There is a direct correlation with being overweight, single, lonely, broke and depressed.
My kids will never own one.
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@E_Bruxxx
Depends on stage imo. Pre-seed/seed is for pirates, Series C is for the pseudo-PE shop
I think there's a valid reason VC becomes more finance-y at every subsequent round.
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Glad these numbers are out now, as I've referenced them a lot in private convos—
TL;DR you can make a *retentive* title in VR, *print money* with *small teams* (and raise *little to no VC* to do so) *today*.
(In other words, GT discredits all the usual excuses thrown at VR)
Gorilla Tag, the free-to-play VR multiplayer hit, reached a new milestone with over 1 million daily and three million monthly active players:
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The headline might read negatively, but it's good news for Vision Pro:
- # units in production for 2024 increased 30-50% due to demand
- All expectations met, better-than-expected response from early adopters
- ~1% return rate (same as iPhone Pro)
- App ecosystem weak (fixable)
Vision Pro更新：美國市場需求已大幅放緩、全球發佈時程預測、供應鏈擴產與退貨率解讀、新機種預測、投資策略
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Hosted the first (!)
@EarthlingVC
event for founders, co-investors and friends of the fund last night in SF—
Best perk of this job is getting to hang out and work with absolute legends
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My new favorite way of being ghosted by LPs:
Re-schedule call last minute, never show up to the new time (that they picked), ignore any follow-up about finding another time.
Happened a few times to me now.
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While we may no longer agree on whether to call it VR, MR, AR, spatial computing etc—
Can we agree “metaverse” is just not it?
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There’s a lot of builder energy in VR right now and a “new guard” of founders leading the way—
VR is evolving, and I suspect some of the OGs may not be totally privy to it, or just don’t like it because it doesn’t fit their vision
Saw a bad take going around.
Anecdotally, I think right now AR/VR is in the best spot since 2020.
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I'm doubling down.
Expecting Zuck to go toe-to-toe with Apple on driving the top-end *innovation* in the space is antithetical to Meta's and Apple's respective superpowers — it's a losing proposition
Apple innovates, Meta scales. Bad goal setting by Zuck, can't out-Apple Apple
I like this video by Zuck. It’s a classy ‘we are going to war’ statement.
Consumers will win.
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According to my timeline, everyone here is a filmmaker now thanks to Sora.
That’s great, but I still only have 24 hours in a day— how is your film going to cut through the noise?
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@gregisenberg
Sam himself didn't "invent" the technology. Show the engineers & researchers the recognition they deserve pls
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On Meta killing Spark AR, quick thoughts:
I spent most of my time at Meta on AR — IG/Spark was thought of as a beta testing sandbox for future AR glasses apps. So, either:
1) Glasses are far away, apps merit less investment
2) Phones are not adequate testing sites for AR apps
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Wrote this in May, but have been sharing it a lot more per email lately.
VR rulez
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3 of 8
@EarthlingVC
portcos were profitable in June
All 3 were VR studios and raised <$1.5M of outside capital
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Hopped off a call with a prospective LP for the first time since AVP—
I don't think it's ever been easier to pitch a post-2D-plane paradigm in tech. Exciting times ahead
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A bunch of investor updates coming in from portcos today—
TL;DR, we've invested in a bunch of fucking legends.
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