郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)
@mingchikuo
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天風國際證券分析師，分享科技產業趨勢觀察與預測。TF International Securities analyst. Sharing observations and predictions of tech industry trends.
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My latest survey indicates Foxconn's iPhone production site in India will ship the new 6.1" iPhone 14 almost simultaneously with China for the first time in 2H22 (India being one quarter or more behind in the past).
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My latest survey indicates that 2H23 new iPhone will abandon Lightning port and switch to USB-C port. USB-C could improve iPhone's transfer and charging speed in hardware designs, but the final spec details still depend on iOS support.
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My latest survey indicates that the volume button and power button of two high-end iPhone 15/2H23 new iPhone models may adopt a solid-state button design (similar to the home button design of iPhone 7/8/SE2 & 3) to replace the physical/mechanical button design.
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The iPhone 15 Pro series overheating issues are unrelated to TSMC’s advanced 3nm node / iPhone 15 Pro系列的過熱問題，與台積電的3nm製程無關
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Some predictions for the coming new iPhone SE:
1. Mass production in Mar'22.
2. Estimated shipments of 25-30 mn units in 2022.
3. Storage: 64/128/256GB.
4. A15 & 5G support (mmW & Sub-6 GHz).
5. Casing: white, black, and red.
6. Similar form factor design to current SE.
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Only two Pro models would upgrade to the A16 processor, while the 14 & 14 Max will remain the A15. All four new models will likely come with 6GB RAM, with the difference being LPDDR 5 (14 Pro & 14 Pro Max) vs. LPDDR 4X (14 & 14 Max).
According to Apple's rules for naming iPhones, the four new 2H22 iPhones could be called iPhone 14 (6.1"), iPhone 14 Max (6.7"), iPhone 14 Pro (6.1”), and iPhone 14 Pro Max (6.7").
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According to Apple's rules for naming iPhones, the four new 2H22 iPhones could be called iPhone 14 (6.1"), iPhone 14 Max (6.7"), iPhone 14 Pro (6.1”), and iPhone 14 Pro Max (6.7").
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Apple employees can already purchase the iPhone 16 with their employee discount. Typically, employees have had to wait several weeks after the release of new iPhone models before being able to buy. This could be another sign that the early demand for the iPhone 16 is below
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Among the 2025 new iPhone models, only the iPhone 17 Pro Max will feature the following specifications:
1. 12GB DRAM (while the ultra-thin iPhone, iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and SE4 will all have 8GB). Enhanced on-device AI capabilities will likely be a major selling point for
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華為的歸來對消費者其實是好事，這可以逼迫Apple走出舒適圈並更積極創新。標準版iPhone 15是首款採用堆疊CIS的手機，但如果沒有美國禁令，華為應該會是第一個採用堆疊CIS的手機品牌業者，而且應該會早於2023年。
==
Huawei's comeback is actually a good thing for consumers. It can force Apple to
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Apple canceled body temperature measurement for Apple Watch 7 because the algorithm failed to qualify before entering EVT stage last year. I believe Apple Watch 8 in 2H22 could take body temperature if the algorithm can meet Apple's high requirements before mass production.
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[Update] Apple has restarted the iPhone SE 4 and will adopt an in-house 5G baseband chip. The significant decline in Qualcomm's Apple orders in the foreseeable future is a foregone conclusion.
[Update] Qualcomm is the biggest winner of Apple’s cancelation of 2024 iPhone SE 4 / Qualcomm為Apple取消2024 iPhone SE 4的最大贏家
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I believe M3 series MacBook Pro will be Oct 30th media event's focus. I previously predicted a launch this year is unlikely due to limited 4Q23 shipments (less than 400-500k units in total). If new MBPs launch in Nov-Dec, tight supply will last into 1Q24 unless demand weakens.
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最近我多次被詢問蘋果是否計劃在 2025 年或 2026 年量產可折疊 iPhone 或 iPad。我的最新調查顯示，蘋果目前唯一有明確開發時程的可折疊產品，只有配備約20.3"顯示器、並預計在2027年量產的MacBook。
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Recently, I've received many inquiries about whether Apple plans to mass-produce the
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先前2024年iPhone出貨的市場共識為2.2-2.25億部，現在已經開始下修，並向我之前預測的2億部靠攏。如果Apple今年無法推出優於市場預期的生成式AI服務，Nvidia的市值將很有可能超越Apple。
2024 iPhone shipments likely to decline significantly by about 15% YoY due to structural challenges / iPhone 2024出貨量在可能因結構性挑戰而將顯著衰退約15% YoY
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Apple Micro LED更新：
1. 我最新的調查指出Apple已經取消了Micro LED Apple Watch的開發計畫，原因在於Apple認為Micro LED並不能顯著提升產品附加價值，加上生產成本過高，不具投資效益。
2. Apple已經遣散了Micro LED開發團隊中大部分的人，目前所有Micro
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iPhone 16 first weekend pre-order analysis: estimated total sales of about 37 million units; Pro series demand lower than expected
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Apple停止Apple Car開發的討論熱絡，看似一件大事，但全世界沒有一檔股票因為這件事而大漲或大跌 (如果有請提醒我，謝謝)。資金是很老實的，這代表資本市場早就不在意Apple是否要開發Apple Car這件事。
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There is a lot of discussion about Apple canceling the development of the Apple Car. It
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Qualcomm will likely be the sole SoC supplier for the Samsung Galaxy S25 (vs. 40% for the S24), as the Exynos 2500 may not ship due to Samsung's lower-than-expected 3nm yield.
In addition to the significant increase in supply share, Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 will see a price
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Apple will launch a new version of Apple TV that improves cost structure in 2H22. I think that Apple's aggressive strategy of integrating hardware, content, and service amid the recession will help close the gap with its competitors.
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From my observations and personal experience, many people buy the Vision Pro and stop using it after just a few tries. If this is a common user case, simply creating a downgraded version with a more affordable price won't solve the problem.
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我的觀察，許多人 (包括我自身經驗)
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近期媒體報導台積電不向Apple要求支付3nm不良品成本與我的理解不同。
客戶向台積電採購晶片，大抵有兩種交易方式，分別是成品採購 (finished goods buy) 與晶圓採購 (wafer buy)。
絕大部分的採購方式都是晶圓採購，因為台積電的良率夠好，好到可以忽視不良品成本。
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1. Portless iPhone may cause more problems due to current limitations of wireless technologies & the immature MagSafe ecosystem.
2. Other Lightning port products (e.g., AirPods, Magic Keyboard/Trackpad/Mouse, MagSafe Battery) would also switch to USB-C in the foreseeable future.
(1/2)
My latest survey indicates that 2H23 new iPhone will abandon Lightning port and switch to USB-C port. USB-C could improve iPhone's transfer and charging speed in hardware designs, but the final spec details still depend on iOS support.
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Because Apple isn't very optimistic about the AR/MR headset announcement recreating the astounding "iPhone moment," the mass production schedule for assembly has been pushed back by another 1-2 months to mid-to-late 3Q23. The delay also adds uncertainty to whether the new device
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Apple將積極升級硬體產品規格以建構更有競爭力的Vision Pro生態
1. Vision Pro的成功關鍵之一在於生態，當中包括能否與其他Apple硬體產品整合，而與此相關的主要硬體規格為Wi-Fi與UWB。
2. iPhone 15採用的UWB將規格升級，生產製程由16nm升級到更先進的7nm，有利近距離互動的效能提升或降低耗電。
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I'm curious whether Elon Musk still thinks there are security issues with Apple integrating LLMs from other companies if Apple devices can also support Grok.
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My latest survey indicates that Apple will likely cancel or postpone the mass production plan for the 2024 iPhone SE 4. I think this is due to the consistently lower-than-expected shipments of mid-to-low-end iPhones (e.g., SE 3, 13 mini, and 14 Plus),
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看起來到今年年底前，Apple應該都不會發售新款的MacBook (配備M3系列處理器) 機型了
==
It seems that Apple will not launch new MacBook models (equipped with M3 series processors) before the end of this year.
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1. Qualcomm will likely be the sole processor supplier for Samsung Galaxy S23 (vs. 70% shipment proportion for S22) thanks to the next flagship 5G chip SM8550 made by TSMC 4nm.
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Apple would release a new version of HomePod in 4Q22-1Q23, and there may not be much innovation in hardware design. Smart speakers are undoubtedly one of the essential elements of the home ecosystem, but I think Apple is still figuring out how to succeed in this market.
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The front camera of four new iPhone 14 models in 2H22 would likely upgrade to AF (autofocus) & about f/1.9 aperture (vs. iPhone 13's FF (fixed-focus) and f/2.2).
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今年年底前不大可能有新款iPad。
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New iPad models are unlikely before the year's end.
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I predict Apple will launch USB-C-capable charging cases for all AirPods models in 2023. However, the charging case of the new AirPods Pro 2 launched in 2H22 may still support Lightning.
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Predictions for Apple's new desktop products:
1. 2022: More powerful Mac mini and more affordable external display (27-inch without mini-LED).
2. 2023: Mac Pro and iMac Pro.
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It implies that Apple is trying to reduce the geopolitical impacts on supply and sees the Indian market as the next key growth driver.
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近期與投資人討論2023 WWDC的重點：
1. 若Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置發布成功，將對3D交互設計與3D電腦圖像帶來巨大影響 (猶如ChatGPT對AI/AIGC)。
2. 長期而言，Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置的成功關鍵因素在於能否與AI/AIGC高度整合。
3. 投資人近期對Apple何時推出類似ChatGPT服務的關注度，高於Apple
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(2/2)
It's expected to see existing USB-C-related suppliers of Apple's ecosystem (e.g., IC controller, connector) become the market's focus in the next 1-2 years, thanks to vast orders from iPhones and accessories' adoption of USB-C ports.
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全球股市僅台股的AI股還在創新高，美國 (服務、軟體、IC設計、組裝與品牌)、中國 (模組、CPO與組裝)、日本 (台積電上游設備與材料) 與韓國 (記憶體) 股市的AI股近期大多都已開始修正。
1.
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2025新款iPhone中，僅iPhone 17 Pro Max配備以下規格：
1. 12GB DRAM (超薄iPhone、iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro與SE4均為8GB)。故可預期更強的裝置端AI將為iPhone 17 Pro Max主要賣點。
2. 散熱規格升級，配備VC (vapor chamber) 與石墨片的組合方案。其餘2025新款iPhone均繼續配備石墨片。
目前Pro
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In the short term, India's iPhone capacities/shipments still have a considerable gap with China, but it's an important milestone for Apple in building a non-Chinese iPhone production site.
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Apple Watch Series 3 may go to end-of-life (EOL) in 3Q22 because the computing power can’t meet the requirements of the new watchOS.
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AirTag, which has not received much attention, has gradually grown in shipments since its release. Shipment estimations of AirTag reach about 20 mn & 35 mn units in 2021 & 2022, respectively. If AirTag shipments continue to grow, I believe Apple will develop the 2nd generation.
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It still takes some time before Apple AR/MR headset enters mass production, so I don't think Apple will release AR/MR headset and rumored realityOS at WWDC this year. Apple's competitors worldwide can't wait to see the hardware spec and OS design for Apple's AR/MR headset.
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New 14" and 16" MacBook Pro with new processors will enter mass production in 4Q22. Given TSMC's guidance that the 3nm will contribute revenue starting in 1H23, processors of 14" and 16" MacBook Pro models may still adopt the 5nm advanced node.
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Apple is testing E Ink's Electronic Paper Display (EPD) for future foldable device's cover screen & tablet-like applications. The color EPD has the potential to become a mainstream solution for foldable devices' must-have cover/second screen thanks to its excellent power-saving.
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Due to strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models, my latest survey indicates that Apple has asked Hon Hai to switch the production lines of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro models, which will help improve Apple's product mix/iPhone ASP in 4Q22.
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[Company Update] Qualcomm (QCOM.O)
My latest survey indicates that Apple's own iPhone 5G modem chip development may have failed, so Qualcomm will remain exclusive supplier for 5G chips of 2H23 new iPhones, with a 100% supply share (vs. company's previous estimate of 20%).
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The Apple Car project team has been dissolved for some time. The reorganization within the next three to six months is necessary to achieve the goal of mass production by 2025.
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2024 iPhone shipments likely to decline significantly by about 15% YoY due to structural challenges / iPhone 2024出貨量在可能因結構性挑戰而將顯著衰退約15% YoY
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I heard the same thing too.
Apple Has Discussed Using Vision Pro for Mental Health Diagnosis, Treatment
That's why I said in my earlier post, "By integrating Vision Pro with the Apple Watch, I believe it can create an unparalleled and innovative health
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Apple will produce 60,000 to 80,000 units of Vision Pro for the February 2 release. Since the shipment is not large, I believe that Vision Pro will sell out soon after the release.
Although Apple has not clearly defined the product positioning and key applications of Vision Pro
對於Vision Pro預購與發售，投資人該關注什麼 / What investors should look for in the Vision Pro pre-order and launch
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Apple Micro LED update:
1. My latest survey indicates that Apple has canceled the Micro LED Apple Watch projects because Apple thinks that Micro LED can’t add significant value to this product, and the production costs are too high to make it economically viable.
2. Apple has
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Predictions for new MacBook Air in 2022:
1. Mass production in late 2Q22 or 3Q22
2. Processor: M1 chip
3. No mini-LED display
4. All-new form factor design
5. More color options
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The development of the Apple Car seems to have lost all visibility at the moment. If Apple doesn't adopt an acquisition strategy to enter the automotive market, I doubt that the Apple Car can go into mass production within the next years.
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Apple
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I previously predicted iPhones would support under-display fingerprint sensing/Touch ID in 2023 at the earliest. But the latest survey indicates new iPhones in 2023 & 2024 may not adopt under-display Touch ID. Face ID with a mask on iPhone is already a great biometrics solution.
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大立光是iPhone 15 Pro Max出貨的救世主；四重反射稜鏡鏡頭單價顯著提升20%以上 / Largan is the savior of iPhone 15 Pro Max shipments; the unit price of tetraprism lens increases significantly by more than 20%
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預測更新：
1. Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置的大量出貨時間為4Q23底或2024年初 (vs. 先前預期的3Q23)。
2. 2023年的出貨量可能將低於市場預期。不過，對投資人而言，現在的觀察重點已非出貨量，而是新產品發布能否說服人Apple的AR/MR頭戴裝置是下一個消費電子的明星產品。
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Forecast updates:
1. Mass
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Two iPhone 15 Pro models’ removal of solid-state button design negatively affects Cirrus Logic and AAC / 兩款iPhone 15 Pro取消固態按鍵設計不利Cirrus Logic與瑞聲科技
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Apple may release its next GaN charger in 2022, which supports about 30W and has a new form factor design.
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Apple’s 4Q23 iPhone revenue and profit will likely be better than expected and easily achieve YoY growth based on early iPhone 15 sales results survey/ 從iPhone 15 初期銷售結果調查來看，Apple 4Q23的iPhone營收與利潤可望將優於預期與輕易實現YoY成長
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(1/2)
I believe Apple will create more differentiation between iPhone 15 Pros and iPhone 15 standard models to increase Pro shipment allocation and the new iPhone ASP.
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AirPods 3 orders for 2-3Q22 have been cut by 30%+. Due to the failed product segmentation strategy, demand for AirPods 3 is significantly weaker than for AirPods 2. AirPods Pro may get discontinued after Apple launches AirPods Pro 2 in 2H22 to avoid repeating the same mistake.
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I predict Apple's next important acoustic product refresh time is will be in 2H24-1H25. The following new products will likely start mass production in 2H24 at the earliest.
1. HomePod mini 2.
2. AirPods Max 2.
3. AirPods low-cost version.
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(1/2)
I believe Apple's AR/MR headset shipping date will postpone to 2Q23 (vs. 1Q23 of market consensus) because Shanghai lockdown interrupts the development. As expected, there were no clues for AR/MR headset at WWDC 2022. Here is my prediction for Apple AR/MR headset schedule.
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Apple's global supply chain management strategy continues to change in response to the de-globalization trend, mainly to reduce the assembly business in China. Here are the latest major survey updates.
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iPhone 15首週末預購觀察 / Thoughts on the iPhone 15 first weekend pre-order
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The iPhone shipment decline in China is higher than expected.
Due to labor protests last November, the Zhengzhou iPhone factory shipped about 12 million fewer iPhone 14 Pro & Pro Max units, resulting in a lower revenue baseline for 4Q22.
Nonetheless, Apple predicted its 4Q23
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Apple is likely to release Vision Pro outside the U.S. market before WWDC 2024 / Apple可能在WWDC 2024前，於美國以外市場發售Vision Pro
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目前已有Apple員工可用員工折扣購買iPhone 16。過往新款iPhone發售後，員工通常需等待數週才能購買，這可能是另一個iPhone 16初期需求低於預期的徵兆。
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iPhone 15 updates / iPhone 15更新
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(1/2)
My latest channel checks suggest that Apple has not changed the shipping plan for the iPhone 14 models since the Shanghai lockdown. iPhone 14 Max is running behind, but it's still under control currently, and suppliers can work overtime to catch up with the schedule.
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The main reason for the larger and more prominent rear-camera bump of the 14 Pro/Pro Max is upgrading the wide camera to 48MP (vs. 13 Pro/Pro Max's 12MP). The diagonal length of 48MP CIS will increase by 25-35%, and the height of 48MP's 7P lens will increase by 5-10%.
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2H24 iPhone 16系列機殼顏色預測
iPhone 16 Pro & Pro Max：黑色、白色 (或銀色)、灰色 (應該是原色鈦金屬)、玫瑰
iPhone 16 & 16 Plus：黑色、綠色、粉紅、藍色、白色
Apple可能對顏色會有不同的稱呼 (如先前稱呼白色為星光色)。此外，即便顏色名稱與既有機種相同，但看起來可能會不一樣。
--
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Apple's AR/MR headset development is behind schedule due to issues with mechanical component drop testing and the availability of software development tools, meaning that mass shipment of this device may postpone from the original 2Q23 to the end of 2Q23 or 3Q23.
(6/8)
My latest survey indicates that the mass shipment schedule of Apple's MR headset may delay to 2H23 because of software-related issues (vs. the previous estimate of 2Q23).
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Meta's metaverse hardware/headset business slows down.
1. Meta cuts shipment forecasts by 40% for 2022 (from 10-11 mn to 7-8 mn units).
2. Meta holds off on all new headset/AR/MR hardware projects after 2024.
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Some people expect Apple to release an updated version of the 13-inch MacBook Pro. I'm just curious, would Apple be interested in upgrading an outdated form factor design product?
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The processors for 2025 iPhone 17 models will be made by TSMC's N3P process/3-nanometer technology. The processor for 2026 iPhone 18 models is anticipated to use TSMC's 2-nanometer technology. However, due to cost concerns, not all new iPhone 18 models may be equipped with a
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AI伺服器近期觀察重點，可能不利短期內相關供應鏈股價持續反彈
1. 過去兩週CSP法說雖都表明正向看待AI趨勢，但均沒有明確提供投資AI好處的證明與未來AI資本支出。
2. Nvidia發佈GH200後股價不漲。
3. Super Micro股價在發佈財報後盤後大跌。特別注意的是台股的AI下游供應商與Super
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My latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple's in-house 5G chip shipments will grow rapidly and replace Qualcomm's 5G chips. It's estimated that Apple's in-house 5G chip shipments will reach 35-40 million units in 2025, 90-110 million in 2026, and 160-180 million in 2027.
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My latest survey indicates that Apple will likely build the new Apple Car project team before the end of 2022.
我的最新調查顯示，Apple可能將在2022年底前建立新的Apple Car專案團隊。
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There is no timetable for commercialization of room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor, but if it can be successfully commercialized in the future, it will have a revolutionary impact on product design in the fields of computers and consumer electronics. The
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(1/5)
媒體報導Apple Watch將在越南開始量產，但據我所知它已經在出貨了。 Apple Watch的主要組裝商立訊精密在中國和越南都有生產線，並且從Apple Watch 7就開始就從越南出貨。我估計Apple Watch 8從越南出貨的比重會大幅提升到60-70%。
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1. AirPods Pro 2 will enter mass production in Vietnam in 2H22, a successful case of mass production of Apple's major products outside China.
@WSJ
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關於Vision Pro的投資觀點：
1. Apple展示空間運算的願景與AR/MR裝置的設計創新，但沒有展示出日常生活使用Vision Pro的必要性。相較之下，目前ChatGPT/AIGC能在可見未來改變人類生活方面更具說服力。
2. 高於預期的售價與發售日需要等待半年以上，不利短期內的投資情緒。
3.
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三個月前的預測實現了。這不只是Nvidia與Apple股價的比較，而是AI強勁成長趨勢與消費電子面臨的創新挑戰之對比。
先前2024年iPhone出貨的市場共識為2.2-2.25億部，現在已經開始下修，並向我之前預測的2億部靠攏。如果Apple今年無法推出優於市場預期的生成式AI服務，Nvidia的市值將很有可能超越Apple。
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Rumored Apple ditching iPhone production increase sounds a little bit weird to me. As I surveyed before, Apple had production switch plans from iPhone 14/14 Plus to iPhone 14 Pro/14 Pro Max/price-cut 13, but I didn't hear of any overall iPhone production increase plan.
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2024年新款iPad機型與量產時程預測 / Predictions for New iPad Models and Production Timeline in 2024
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Vision Pro首週末預購檢視：符合預期但隱憂浮現 / Vision Pro’s first-weekend pre-order review: expectations in line, but concerns raised
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My latest supply chain check suggests that the assembler and several component providers of PS VR2 will start mass production with about 1.5M units shipments in 2H22. Sony may launch it in 1Q23, depending on the development schedule of PS VR2 game titles.
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I think the rumored iPhone 15 Pro series's adoption of an 8P lens won't likely come true.
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I'm sure that if Apple announces AR/MR headset and its OS at WWDC, competitors will immediately kick off copycat projects and happily copy Apple's excellent ideas, and hit the store shelves before Apple launches in 2023.
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近期與AI股相關的重點產業更新：
1. Super Micro的財測與OpenAI可能面臨破產的報導，或對大部分先前漲多的AI股不利。Nvidia發佈L40S則可能會有新贏家。
2. Nvidia發佈L40S對AI股票的潛在影響：1) 可能會開始讓投資人對AI投資的關注重點轉移到AI邊緣運算，潛在受惠者包括Dell、華碩等、與 2)
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2H23新款高階iPhone的有線傳輸速度可能將顯著提升，有利高速傳輸IC設計產業成長，Apple的既有供應商 (如：譜瑞、祥碩、創惟、Renesas等) 可望為領先受益者。
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大立光、水晶光電與藍特光學為iPhone 15 Pro Max長焦鏡頭規格提高最大贏家；四重反射稜鏡技術為2023與2024年的Apple供應鏈最佳投資機會之一
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1. Apple Watch Ultra 3沒有在今年的新產品發佈會出現，這與我約一年前的預測相符。
2. 2025年新款Apple Watch將包括Ultra 3與SE升級版。
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1. Apple Watch Ultra 3 was absent from this year's media event, which is in line with my prediction from about a year ago.
2. The 2025 new Apple
Apple在2024年更新新款Apple Watch Ultra的可能性正逐漸降低 / The likelihood of Apple updating the new Apple Watch Ultra in 2024 is decreasing
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我在一個月前對小米的樂觀預測成真 (當時沒人樂觀，包括回應我發文的評論)。小米為中國雙十一銷售主要品牌贏家之一，在11月11日當天銷售金額創新高達224億人民幣，並在11月5日至11日的中國手機週出貨量位居國產手機出貨冠軍。
新生小米蓄勢待發：手機業務重拾成長超預期 & 汽車業務迎向新風口 / Xiaomi poised for growth: mobile business resumes growth exceeding expectations & car division welcomes new opportunities
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My prediction is the same - under-display Face ID coming in 2024 (iPhone 16), and this time schedule is less of a technical issue and more of a marketing purpose.
@MacRumors
@rsgnl
Under display Face ID is coming to the iPhone (16), under display Touch ID is not…
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對媒體報導OpenAI可能破產的看法：
1. 不用去擔心這種事。
2. AI/AIGC已是明確的趨勢，但產業的變化將會創造新贏家與輸家。
3.
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預測更新：
1. AirTag 2可能將在4Q24量產。
2. 我相信空間運算是Apple想建立的新生態，欲以Vision Pro為核心整合其他裝置，包括AirTag 2。
==
Prediction update:
1. AirTag 2 will likely go to mass production in 4Q24.
2. I believe that spatial computing is a new ecosystem that Apple wants
AirTag, which has not received much attention, has gradually grown in shipments since its release. Shipment estimations of AirTag reach about 20 mn & 35 mn units in 2021 & 2022, respectively. If AirTag shipments continue to grow, I believe Apple will develop the 2nd generation.
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