ajlvi
@ajlvi
Followers
2,536
Following
74
Media
993
Statuses
7,113
Threes! enthusiast, number theorist, and data scraper for the MTG Elo Project. (He/him) Elo project Patreon:
Joined April 2016
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#ใจซ่อนรักEP6
• 840282 Tweets
LINGORM TSOU EP6
• 827734 Tweets
Caracas
• 666872 Tweets
最後の最後
• 262346 Tweets
Term
• 259271 Tweets
Petare
• 227016 Tweets
राहुल गांधी
• 165474 Tweets
Southport
• 143446 Tweets
Japão
• 140780 Tweets
Nadal
• 123663 Tweets
スケボー
• 99982 Tweets
Rafaela
• 70398 Tweets
Riccardo Calafiori
• 60505 Tweets
Sainz
• 60345 Tweets
Rachel Reeves
• 49161 Tweets
Kelvin
• 41795 Tweets
堀米くん
• 33941 Tweets
미미 선수
• 33676 Tweets
#ترشح_السعوديه2034
• 22948 Tweets
Yuto
• 21786 Tweets
#堀米雄斗
• 20913 Tweets
Huw Edwards
• 19048 Tweets
Nyjah
• 16580 Tweets
Macedonia del Norte
• 16102 Tweets
JIMIN NO1 BILLBOARD GLOBAL 200
• 15140 Tweets
体操団体
• 14644 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Today on the Elo project blog: curating is done! I talk about some of the hurdles I went through in processing the new tournaments. All the jigsaw pieces for Elo 2.0 are face up on the table now, just a little more assembly required. Sorry for the delays!
1
3
34
Feels like a good time to bump this Maro article excerpt from a bygone era when WotC knew that printing too many cards caused player fatigue.
year:2021 not:reprint is at 1897 novel functionally unique cards and counting.
This came into effect at the end of 2008. Relevant data from Scryfall:
year:2008 not:reprint → 825 cards ("too many")
year:2009 not:reprint → 619 cards
year:2019 not:reprint → 1205 cards
year:2020 not:reprint → 1228 cards
No wonder I've felt overwhelmed already!
2
22
108
10
59
297
[spits out tea] I probably should be looking at these publications more often. Maze's End appeared today for the first time in two years! Uh... is Pioneer actually just straight fire?
26
16
275
Most copies in Pioneer 5-0 decks, March 2024:
1120 Thoughtseize
1020 Fatal Push
808 Fable
593 Duress
576 Bloodtithe Harvester
558 Mutavault
546 Leyline of the Void
500 Vein Ripper
500 Sorin
471 Damping Sphere
396 Amalia, Innkeeper, WWalker
...
272 Phoenix
3
6
166
This card is format-revolutionizing. All previous alphabet decks have been scrapped and it's time to start all over again.
5
2
144
PSA that tonight (US time) a 2272-person GP, with 13 three-bye players and four hall of famers, will be broadcast on Twitch. And apparently the winner is getting a year's supply of instant ramen.
8
9
145
MH3 became legal a week ago. In that time, 126 different cards have achieved a 5-0 modern league trophy. Pictured is [# copies / # decks] for every card.
For comparison, a week after their respective releases, MH2 was at 114 and MH1 was at 69. (MH1 has 55 fewer cards than MH2/3.)
3
15
146
Yesterday I finished work on a feature I'd been thinking about for at least five years, the "back of the baseball card." Here's
@Ajelenbogen
's as an example.
16
13
142
Now, now, let's not exaggerate—the most Modern Horizons cards in a 75-card trophying list is 59, in this one from Monday.
Modern is in a sweet spot right now. You get to pick your 8 favourite cards from the last 20 years of Magic and combine them with 67 Modern Horizons (1-2-3) cards (purchased for 799$) and battle against all kinds of cool strategies
17
118
1K
5
7
137
You have to get up pretty early in the morning to get a better seat than the rest of the
#UltimateGuardProTeam
for watching
@ReidDuke
in an MC top 8.
2
5
133
Viashino Sandsprinter appeared today among the modern 5-0 decks. That's the 128th Modern Horizons card to trophy -- we have officially crossed the 50% line.
7
10
133
Basics in PT top 8 decks, since 1999 (
#PTDOM
in parentheses):
1300 Mountain (+102)
1283 Island (+4)
1146 Forest
924 Plains (+1)
796 Swamp (+10)
Only one other PT has ever had 100+ of a basic. PT New York 2000 (Masques block) had 112 Plains among six top 8 Rebels decks.
7
25
123
This came into effect at the end of 2008. Relevant data from Scryfall:
year:2008 not:reprint → 825 cards ("too many")
year:2009 not:reprint → 619 cards
year:2019 not:reprint → 1205 cards
year:2020 not:reprint → 1228 cards
No wonder I've felt overwhelmed already!
2
22
108
6-0 for
@JackBKiefer
gives him the title of 2019 Draft Master. He went 20-4 across the eight MC drafts. Well played!
Congratulations to the
#MythicChampionshipVI
6-0 drafters!
One draft 🏆is great, two is incredible!
Austin Bursavich
@AndrewCuneo
@JackBKiefer
Mack Smith
Stephen Tuchek
@wrapter
You’re the real knights of Eldraine! 👑
5
4
88
1
8
103
Just in time for the
#MythicInvitational
, today
@ajolipa
and I (mainly her) put together the MPL lifetime head-to-head grid. You can look up other players to see their history against the MPL, too! (We made a link for the 32 Invi challengers for you.)
27
17
102
It is not often you see cards make the top 32 of a challenge that have never 5-0'd a league, but I can say that about Titans' Nest and Worst Fears, Who knows if there's something here, but this looks like a blast when it works. Where's the one-of Villainous Wealth?
9
4
97
Lastly, lost in the shuffle of the start of the academic year and the double GP weekend, last Thursday was the two year anniversary of the Elo project. It's been a wonderful ride so far, and I'm deeply grateful for all the support we get. ❤️ Looking forward to year three!
5
0
90
As long as there are GPs with results on the internet, the Elo project will go on. It isn't much, but I get motivated by feeling like there's some longer-reaching narrative in my tournament participation history. From what I've heard from others, I'm not alone in this.
2
1
90
"With the state of current mana bases and the London mulligan, development is often perfect and stress-free, so more pressure is put on minor inefficiencies. The price for having fewer non-games is that underwhelming starts are now non-games." [3/3]
0
7
83
As a waiting-in-the-airport challenge, I tried to figure out what would happen if, after
@jonnymagic00
beat
@acdbob
for the 2000 World Championship, every time you beat the world champion you became the world champion.
20
19
77
All I can say is that if these online Mythic Championships don't have pairings, or if they're posted only with arcane screennames and no translation key, I'm done. Someone else can do Elo.
2
0
79
Reminder to players playing in the RC this weekend in Atlanta, Sofia, and Sao Paulo: for the first time in 30 months, this weekend's paper events ARE being played for Elo. This is not a drill.
4
8
76
Whoa
@Smdster
@MightyLinguine
@MatthewLNass
, you didn't need to! Wow, this is wild. Thank you so so much!! Please tell me you didn't bust packs to find an Alchemist's Vial...
10
1
73
Do you have a cube on MTGO, or have you thought about putting one together?
@ajolipa
and I coded a lightweight web app that facilitates drafting. It could be a little flashier visually, but it gets the job done. If you'd like to put it to use for you, I'd be happy to set you up!
9
9
73
"I don't know, boss. Short of dismantling the entire OP system, I don't see any way we're going to get people to stop pressuring us for spectator mode."
"Wait, back up. What did you say?"
0
5
71
His last PT draft loss was PTGRN R2 -- now a streak of 19 consecutive draft wins. On the plus side, that's
#2
all time now. However to tie the record he'll have to maintain a clean slate until the end of Richmond. (The record is 28.) (Of course it's Finkel.)
1
1
66
Brief Elo update: curating has reached the stage of spot checks. I'm through 241 of the ~635 new events. 26886 new names left. When I hit 100% here, the data will be final for now and we'll turn our attention to site infrastructure updates. This will be much faster than curating.
Reminder: I'm in the middle of adding the Elo 2.0 events to the database, so new results aren't going to appear on the site for a bit since I'm not updating Elo 1.0 any more.
The update will add 629 tournaments and 920k matches. There are 42000 new names to curate yet.
6
0
44
5
2
71
I started playing seriously in 2014, so I only ever knew Itaru Ishida's name from Elo curating. In the age of 20+ GPs/PT streams a year, I always wished I could see him play on camera.
Itaru Ishida 79.09.16—13.01.13
These tributes come from now-missing GP Yokohama 13 coverage.
1
8
70
I wonder when was the last time that a single new deck contributed first trophies to SIX CARDS.
Beseech the Queen, Dawnglow Infusion, Down // Dirty, Mind Sludge, Rude Awakening and Torment of Hailfire had never trophied in Modern before.
I admit I only knew the rules text on 3/6.
5
3
69
🚨 You know the rules, when Avacyn shows up in Pioneer, I'm going to gush over it. Especially when it's a saucy flash list like this. This is the first sighting of the Archangel since January, and the first appearance of the briny boi since June 2020!
5
4
69
Atlanta will be the last event for Elo 1.0. There's six weeks between Atlanta and Denver and I'm going to find a way to have everything ready for Elo 2.0 by then. Wish me luck!
2
0
68
When I was 11 years old and had never played a sanctioned match I loved reading the articles on the Mothership explaining how national champions qualified for Worlds.
I really couldn't tell you if this weekend's league structure was invented 45 minutes ago. It feels like it was.
Let me tell you, I have known
@ajlvi
for 17 years, he follows every competitive endeavor imaginable, he's compiled stats covering 25 years of premier MtG play, and he just told me that he has literally no idea what the structure or stakes of this League Weekend are. 🙃
4
3
87
3
1
69
Day one draft trophies, with lifetime trophy counts:
@Jonnymagic00
#43
@MartinJuza
#23
@KbolMagic
#23
@paulrietzl
#20
@HueyJensen
#18
@thepchapin
#16
@ReidDuke
#14
@Smdster
#11
@death_snow
#10
@Mengu09
#10
@40cardfriedman
#10
5
6
68
Wow, a thousand followers! Thank you all for all your support! ❤️ I hope you came for the Magic stats and stay for the ... other Magic stats.
3
0
66
Finally time for
#PTPhyrexia
notables. Congratulations again
@ReidDuke
! Well top 8'd,
@Nathansteuer1
,
@gabnassif
,
@yaya3_
,
@ura_frst
! Happy to see
@tangrams
crack 2200 and Nathan crack 2100.
Shota was last
#1
after his PT Kaladesh win.
Here comes a thread of numbers. 🧵
4
13
66
I got one piece of information from Oliver Krebs today (he lost round 8 of ptny98 against an unknown opponent) and I think I'm going to get a twelve-match cascade where I deduce an entire pod. Would people be interested in me recording all the logic in a short video?
14
0
64
.
@MTG_Arena
@MagicEsports
Can someone check the algorithm that's picking out these decklists, please? I don't believe that anyone would have joined the platinum ladder with this deck, let alone win six straight matches with it.
11
2
65
Coming into
#PTPhoenix
, there had been 7 instances of players going from 2-3 to the top 8 at a sixteen-round PT, out of a stock of 4682 opportunities. That's a 0.15% conversion rate. Well played
@Corey_Burkhart
!
Huge congrats to
@Corey_Burkhart
who just locked up a top8 at
#PTPhoenix
! 2-3 into 12-3 baby, impressive stuff!
5
5
178
2
3
64
When we made day two at GP Providence 2017 our pool had three Opts in it. I am looking for a fourth stamped Opt to complete the set. It doesn't have to be number 24 -- hopes aren't THAT high. There were five other team GPs with XLN stamped cards on day two. I'm happy to pay. 🙏❤️
11
10
64
[1/22] It's time for some
#PTMachine
numbers! Starting with Elo notables—congratulations
@Nathansteuer1
! GGs
@CainRianhard
,
@autumnlilypad
,
@Canadianbacn
!
It is nearly impossible to start at 2200+ and gain points, but
@tangrams
and
@ReidDuke
did it with 11-5s. Lots more below. 🧵
1
10
62
There were 20 players that didn't just appear in all five post-pandemic PTs (ONE MOM LTR MKM OTJ), they made *all five day twos*. Here's how they did day one at
#PTMH3
. Three fell, leaving 17 moving into 2025. ggs
@Vendilion
pulling this one out of the fire!
2
4
62
Here's the 37 players that appeared in all five of the PTs since the pandemic (ONE, MOM, LTR, MKM, OTJ). I'm not counting Worlds against anyone because it's a smaller field, but actually everyone except Shuhei was in Vegas. Checkmarks are invites for Amsterdam; we'll lose 7 more.
9
8
62
August 30 is our Eloversary! Thank you all for three fulfilling years. ❤️ Another year of stats starts tomorrow!
4
0
58
This is truly miserable, and it's put a raincloud over my head too. I do spend time thinking about how to minimize the extent to which the site gets used for evil. For the most part I've been pleasantly surprised how little I've had to do, but feels like it's gotten worse lately.
Name and shame. This person really went out of their way to make me feel like shit.
128
27
510
6
1
59
This list may be incomplete, but here's the players I know of that have never missed the cut at a PT:
6
@terlollo15
,
@mtg_derrick
7
@GuI_Dukat
,
@PivoUlivo
8
@KingofTraitors
18 (not a typo) Riku Kumagai
@ajlvi
@Vendilion
Stefan has a 100% day2 conversion rate in PTs. Who else (with a good sample size say x=5) falls in the same category?
2
0
1
5
14
60
Today's biggest eye-opener in the Pioneer league deck dump is this Esper flash list, which gave Slitherwisp its first trophy.
3
9
59
The average Elo of the competitors last weekend was 1963.69. As the graphic at this old tweet [] shows, the average Elo at PTs tended to be in the low 1800s. The last five worlds were 2044, 2101, 2068, 2042, 2053. So it was on the worlds side of the gap.
@ajlvi
@nalkpas
@bsweitz123
My friend was looking at the results of some people and the average Elo ratings are insane. Do you know what the average for the tournament was?
1
0
0
3
8
57
Today marks the one-year anniversary of GP Lyon 2020, the last tournament of the before times. Since then, we lost the DCI database and the CFB coverage archive. "Official" sources only seem to know the final standings. It's about what we have for lost tournaments from 1998.
2
3
57
You all know the rules -- when the Archangel shows up, you're going to see the list. This is Avacyn's first appearance in the Pioneer league dumps since June 3.
5
3
54
All 1914 Swiss matches from
#PTBrussels
are now on .
@kanister_mtg
has ascended to
#1
, becoming the 21st member of the 2300+ club.
@Tia_Rizzi93
is the unofficial world champion, so the title will leave with the winner of the tournament. GL tomorrow all!
5
2
55
Elo update: 629/629 on spot checks. Next steps:
— Scrape and curate post-PTMKM events
— Fix ~250 errors that were more complicated than "merge X into Y"
— Deal with ~5 events that are missing a top 8
— Make sure no rounds are duplicated (I know of one)
— Tag IDs (semi-automated)
5
0
55
I'll miss you out there,
@efropoker
! Worth remembering that Eric was the Cy Young of team GPs/PTs: he has the record for most events (35), day 2s (27), top 8s (17 out of 35!!), top 4s (11), and match wins (291). His teams were 291-111 in matches, a 72.39% win rate.
1
2
55
Today's Pioneer league dump was the biggest one since January 2020. A bunch of cool ideas in there, but this Widespread Thieving deck is the one I was most surprised by.
We also saw Quartzwood Crusher(!?) and Sphere of Safety(!) for the first time since May 2020.
2
4
53
One unexpectedly-popular segment of our last Japanese RC stream was when between rounds I loaded all the decklists into a Python session and did live data science. If I put Atlanta decklists together, would people come hang out on stream and ask research questions?
8
3
54
Caleb's nine rounds yesterday gets him to 75 lifetime sealed matches, making him eligible for our leaderboard. His 57-18 record is an even 76%, which is the best all-time (narrowly ahead of
@Boss_MTG
's 75-24, 75.8%).
7-2'd day one no byes. I cast Niv a lot--2x in three separate games. Lost to RG beats and bow into g/w gods.dec
5
0
112
4
5
53
You can stop printing GIant Growth in limited sets when people stop going 7-2 in Showcase Challenges with it.
3
0
52
Strong Pioneer showing: the challenge over the weekend had a top eight consisting of eight distinct archetypes, and Anointed Procession appeared in the league dump in this incredibly saucy list. The last time we saw Procession was 18 months ago!
5
5
51
If Invasion of Tarkir counts, then 16 dragons is a new record for a deck that earned a Pioneer trophy. (There was a 14-dragon list last August.)
0
4
52
Only looking at the *first two days* that MH3 has been legal, already 102(!!) cards from the set have a modern league trophy. Sorry to the >95% of people who underestimated. ^_^;;
Pictured is [# copies / # decks] for every MH3 card. Which trophy most surprises you?
How many distinct MH3 cards will get a modern league trophy in the first week the set is legal? Count the fetches and basics for simplicity, so the floor is 10. Replying with the answer in a week.
3
1
7
12
8
52
I'm still reeling from this sequence from last night. You've seen great topdecks, but have you seen a bottomdeck before?
4
4
52
This is high up there on my list of favorite things I've ever had happen with a Spell Queller.
2
2
51
People to defeat
@lsv
twice in one event:
@aaron_nicastri
, GP Melbourne 2009
@JeremyNeeman
, PT Philadelphia 2011
@junyaiyanaga
, Worlds 2011
@InsayneHayne
, 2012 Players Championship
@Nakashu_
, 2012 Players Championship
@fffreakmtg
, PT Shadows over Innistrad
@yaya3_
, Worlds 2016
2
0
95
2
0
50
total copies in Pioneer 5-0 lists, May:
1 Fatal Push 1137
2 Thoughtseize 1051
3 Fable 909
4 Bloodtithe Harvester 516
t7 Sorin/Ripper 412
9 Swiftspear 404
10 Ashiok, Dream Render 403
13 Slickshot 381
t28 Phoenix 288
t28 Amalia 288
46 Bring to Light 260
3
2
49
It's been a while since I shared some standard/game design wisdom from
@yaya3_
. As always, any errors in translation are mine.
Shota is replying to a take that decks are optimized so quickly now that there's not room to brew because missteps on turns 1-3 are fatal. [1/3]
1
6
49
Elo update: Last weekend's RCs have been incorporated. I'm about a third of the way through IDs now, and it's going quickly. After this I have to verify formats for ~50 events where I just wrote "mixed"—old nationals mainly. Then I'll freeze the data and it's time for web dev.
8
0
49
I am pretty sure that the Elo project backend doesn't have the infrastructure to give a win to both players. Not 100% sure what I'm going to do here; I guess we'll find out when I curate on Thursday.
7
0
48
I wonder if this daily deal exists to get people like me to point it out and publicize it so that people who haven't logged into Arena in a while go in and purchase it, expecting some percentage of those people to then stick around and play?
8
0
47
I didn't do any Elo work today (actually Rebecca did!) but I did throw together
@MatthewLNass
's version of Amalia (+/- a couple cards) and cruise to an RC invite, so there's that. And now I have no excuse not to work next weekend.
3
1
48
Done! Total price: 19.875 tix. Looking forward to battling soon. Can I interest anyone in cube sometime?
14
0
47
.
@Jonnymagic00
added to his PT draft trophy count this morning. Here's everyone with 10+ PT 3-0 drafts in the split-format era (since pthon09, 32 PTs).
@PVDDR
is ahead of
@nabe1218
due to the PT San Juan 2010 top 8.
@OwenTweetenwald
,
@Juzam_
,
@BenS8528
round out the top 5.
#PTDOM
7
8
46
Together these two have played over 3000 GP+PT matches, but had never played each other.
The Grand Prix's final undefeated player at
#MTGOKC
will either be Pro Tour regular and eight-time GP Top 8 competitor Alex Majlaton, or Hall of Famer Frank Karsten!
0
1
58
0
0
47
Does anyone else have a soft spot for when event coverage articles had titles? Just me?
2
0
44
The
#MTGSydney
top 8 was pretty stacked -- half of them got to list "GP Champion" as their best finish. Then I got to
@Nakashu_
's profile.
1
0
46