🧸 angry bear 🧸
@TwoYearNote
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commodity pool operator | short $COIN | shorted bond mkt in Apr’23 covered at 5% 10Y | longed gold on October 7 | #macro
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The way people are mass dismissing this geopolitical tension as “bluffs” reminds me of how the masses thought JPow was bluffing about rate hikes Q1-Q3 2022.
Guess what geniuses. Sometimes a spade is a spade.
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@smdiehl
👏👏👏 The subtext of “it’s hopeless for you so gamble on this ponzi we’re selling to you” is abhorrent
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@StealthQE4
until they cut their dividend because they can't afford higher debt servicing costs
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@PauloMacro
Those shorts are just institutions hedging their duration exposure. Look at small specs. Look at FMS. Look at sentiment/chatter. Everyone thinks long bonds is a good trade. It's not; it's crowded. IMO
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Good argument that we have been in a depression since 2008. Heard it from
@EmilKalinowski
@hendry_hugh
@JeffSnider_AIP
No better example of that than EM stocks. A neutral observer would say this chart looks an awful lot like 1929-1937.
U.S. stocks different because fake QE
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@RJRCapital
You know who ends up holding the bag when they’re done pillaging this ponzi. The passive retirement account holders. Mom and pops. Criminals!
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@MirageTurning
@OwenBenjamin
There are 5 mining pools which determine what transactions are allowed. They can and have censored transactions. The freedom argument doesn’t work. It’s just a plain old ponzi.
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@RJRCapital
I love how the bulls’ base case is always everyone should be in STAHKS and long. This American obsession with equities has gone too far. It’s worse than 1920s almost.
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This guy
@Banana3Stocks
is having an emotional breakdown in my DMs. The selloff today must have really gotten to him.
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@TheDanPeters
@thecaptain_nemo
Not really cheap anymore. They’re just the only ones who know how to do it.
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@goldseek
Bank wires are more anonymous than Bitcoin. At least with a bank wire, only the bank and the person I transact with knows who I am. With Bitcoin, the whole world knows what I am doing with my money and how much I have.
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@smdiehl
The “tech” (if you can even call it that given it’s a 1990s style database) is just a way to obscure the scam. The same way Elizabeth Holmes pretended to be a tech founder, it’s sleight of hand where any inquiry is framed as not understanding this “complicated tech.”
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@PauloMacro
Bizarre take. I have never seen fintwit this bullish. The guy you quoted has been posting bearish charts for a decade; he hardly counts as a sentiment indicator.
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@MFHoz
Yep. The only reason it couldn’t happen before was too many people prepared for it. Now everyone has emptied their accounts into the market, so we can see some real bidless price action.
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@TicTocTick
Already has. Millennials made more money (inflation adjusted) than prior generations, yet so many complain about having no savings. Wanna wager a guess why? They all bought the top of crypto.
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@texasrunnerDFW
@rationalaussie
Bitcoin is a window to extreme poverty. Most people buy at the highs. The average cost basis of retail participants is north of $50k.
Bitcoin is part of the reason millennials can’t afford homes despite making more money than prior generations.
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@biancoresearch
Those “shorts” are firms hedging their duration exposure. Look at small specs for the true sentiment. Sentiment is overwhelmingly long. The message in MSM is you need to be long bonds.
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@vixologist
Maybe the market knows something. VIX basis/spreads usually blow out right before spot VIX moons.
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
It will just drop one day and keep dipping. No one will have any justification for it until it’s already down 20% from the highs.
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NVDA phenomenon has more to do with the not-QE they injected into the banking system than anything to do with technology. The stock just happened to be the pumping vehicle because it had a good narrative at the time.
If it wasn’t NVDA it would have been something else.
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@nic__carter
@Noahpinion
Running an economy on Bitshit is most akin to the free / wildcat banking era. You’d have a bunch of entities like Binance being the de facto banks.
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@goldseek
@cnthinking
Very thin books, but still an important signal as it’s the only gold market open
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@saxena_puru
you're measuring them from an artificial peak that would never have happened without super money printing
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@DiMartinoBooth
@FreightAlley
@CortesSteve
@wesbury
so are we just going to ignore that this is a rate-of-change chart not absolute levels?
it's just mean reversion after a massive pull-forward of demand
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@RetirementRight
There are a LOT of crypto baggies out there. It’s like 50% of the population, maybe 99% of CNBC viewers. Saying soothing things about the ponzi gets them ratings.
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@INArteCarloDoss
equities to new ATH while they r hiking because econ so strong and AI fixes everything
welcome to the 1998
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@disk0nekted
@GRomePow
Surely there are enough software engineering jobs in America to support all of India moving in then?
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@defilava
@PeterSchiff
Nothing about a large gain in a year precludes a bear market from happening
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@zerohedge
if they're printing this headline, you know the debt ceiling talks are not going well
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@InverseAgres
@BecauseBitcoin
Don’t shoot me, but they’re doing the same thing now but in reverse. They’re telling their flock to load up their life savings into this “dip” a few percent off all time highs.
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
These are the final days of that. Every superbubble looks unstoppable right before the end.
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@goodalexander
True AI will probably speed up creation of the quantum computer that puts an end to this ridiculous ponzi altogether
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@Schuldensuehner
And German inflation is still somehow elevated. No one alive now has lived through anything similar. It’s going to be biblical.
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@bourbonbuddy1
If it dropped this much for some slow drones, imagine what it does in a war America gets involved in, or a recession
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@RetirementRight
Average retail buy price is about $55k according to on chain data. The plebs are barely in the money.
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I will not stand for another round of bulls gloating that they bought the dip
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@agurevich23
I think you have been so wrong for so long that you’re due for some mean reversion in 2024. Hard landing on deck.
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@RealKeithWeiner
all the printed money went into SPX and various ponzi assets instead of real economic growth as intended
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@endless_frank
bond market has been pricing in imminent cuts since the first rate hike
they don't know anything
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@IDKFA3
The suicides from crypto will end up looking like a war happened in the amount of casualties
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@JoeCarlasare
They all bought the etf. Even grandma is on board now. There’s no one left to buy
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@donnelly_brent
Yeah this isn’t gonna work. It’s just going to keep falling. 36k is still a sky high price for these worthless chuck-e-cheese tokens. There is no one left to buy.
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@salarymander1
@notAgres
If bank websites get compromised, they can just shut it down and reverse any fraudulent transfers. If Bitcoin keys get compromised, it’s gone FOREVER.
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@notAgres
Yup. Crypto especially Bitcoin is a bet against technology. It’s 16 year old software that never gets updated. Some Google employee working on the quantum computer will steal everyone’s keys and market sell a couple thousand coins before people notice and price tanks to 0.
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@IDKFA3
They only know a few phrases. It’s like talking to a parrot or a GPT. When you get indoctrinated into the Bitcoin cult, they must give you a little red book with a bunch of canned responses.
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@GRomePow
It’s all belief. You can’t justify crypto having monetary value without circular arguments. It’s the definition of fiat money. We already have fiat money, we don’t need another one.
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@BergMilton
NDX made a new year to date high. There may be bullish technicals, but this sure ain't a "corrective low"
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@Jason
@RoaringHammy
It’s a bucket shop mirroring the actual race and gambling venues. It’s not a partner with the real race.
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@crossbordercap
You should make a version for retail traders. You're missing out on a lot of $$$.
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@MikeIppolito_
@Jason
sOlAnA iS a cOmMoDiTY
It’s literally an unregistered security representing fake equity in this vague software project
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@gherkinit
@fundstrat
One of the most shameless grifters. at least Mike Wilson isn’t shilling a subscription service to retail, but Tom Lee is.
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@frankoz95967943
The “Money Flow” indicator does not measure money inflows or outflows. It’s a modified version of RSI.
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