Milton W Berg CFA
@BergMilton
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MB Advisors Institutional Research info @miltonberg .com "Milton Berg's Guide to Technical Analysis and the Stock Market" Target 2025
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The S&P 600 generated a 50-to-1 downside-to-upside Declines/Advances ratio. This has occurred 18 times since 1995. Historically, 120 days later the S&P 500 had gained in price 100% of the time for a median gain of +16.89%.
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If this were a Bear Market Rally then the S&P 500 gain of +17.19% off the decline of -23.55% would be the GREATEST bear market rally ever after an interim bear market decline of -27.77% or less
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At this time, we think it likely that the market is in a period of consolidation, correction or perhaps at the precipice of a Bear market. We are eliminating long exposure.
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July 13, 1990. The day of the Top
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The S&P 500 Index has declined -7.84% since topping on July 31.
This is the third correction of greater than -7% since the Bull market began on October 13, 2022.
There have been 17 Bull markets in the S&P 500 since 1957 (as defined by a gain of >+25% after a decline of >-19%).
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The Great Bear market of 1929-1932 (Dow Jones Industrials -89.19%) ended on July 8, 1932. A WD Gann bear market bottom is predicted 90 years later, plus or minus 2 months. Based on the WD Gann 90-year cycle, a low was expected between June and August 2022.
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For Institutional Subscription Information Contact info
@miltonberg
.com
This is an excerpt from Report NO. 3038 dated October 19, 2023. Positioning was re-adjusted on 10-20.
1. We anticipate continued declines ahead of us in the equity markets. There are no new indicator
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We are currently positioned flat equities. Markets are overbought and exhibiting signs of exhaustion. At the least we expect corrective action ahead. We cannot eliminate the possibility that we are at the cusp of a Bear market
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This will be my last tweet for a while
Equities, Precious Metals and Bitcoin have been rallying in unison. There are suggestions that we are on the cusp of a reflation trade and that the Fed has not tightened sufficiently and that the upside action in these three asset classes
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The TRIN-based Bull Market signal on October 17 was followed by a minor pullback of -0.33%. In line with the three historical Bullish Events. SP 500 has now gained +2.03% above the signal date and has Generated a Day-7 Buy Signal. Feel free to RT
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Despite the S&P 500 rising by +6.86% over 19 days from its recent -5.46% correction low, our models have not indicated that this is a sustainable and continuing market rally.
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Very proud of my son Akiva who despite his recent graduation from Columbia Law School remains dedicated to the libertarian and free market principles our country was founded on. Thank you
@PeterSchiff
and
@1913endedUSA
for being exceptional mentors.
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@LayahHeilpern
Climate Change
Evolution
Neo Darwanism
Gender Fluidity
Socialism
Fiat Currency
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1. We shorted the indexes into the March highs.
2. We shorted a basket of 20 stocks in February.
3. The April Lows and the market action off those lows were not accompanied by data based Buy signals.
4. The Highs In July were accompanied by a broadening market as the Russell
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Bullish Get-Ready-to-Buy Signals
When the indicators currently in place have been generated in the past, a market correction was near its end. The latest swift market correction may have generated a tradable low.
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This will be our last post for a while. Here our our latest thoughts.
We have not yet seen further confirmation that the August 5 buy indications based on oversold lows will hold.
Declines to intraday lows of NDX -15.61% and SOX -27.65% are sufficient
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The Blockworks Interview with Jack Farley has generated false and misleading headlines. For the record.
1. We are currently Bullish and are positioned 100% long. Our models generated 7 Buy signals on August 28 and 29. We will remain long until we see additional evidence of a
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The S&P 500 bottomed on October 13 and reversed upwards by +5.31%. That may be the final low before a strong market rally. The closing low was on October 12. Today is Day 7 off the closing low. A strong up day today on higher volume should trigger confirming Buy indications.
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Today’s new high in the S&P 500 has been accompanied by all of the indicators in our ‘Technicals at the High’ table, in line with conditions seen at prior major market peaks.
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I have been working on a stock market book for a number of years. The data compiled is too extensive for a one volume tome. Volume onewill focus on data signals near precise bear market lows. A sample momentum signal is attached.
info
@miltonberg
.com
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We therefore are of the view that a good low was generated on October 27. It could take us back towards the late July highs or perhaps towards the November 2021 to January 2022 all-time highs in NASDAQ and S&P 500. We do not at this time have sufficient reason to believe that a
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A bull market is in progress and investors and traders should follow their various bull market disciplines. We will remain long until we see evidence that suggests a correction lies ahead or perhaps a evidence of premature ending to this nascent bull move.
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Technically, it appears that the true bear market low was generated at the June lows. The market
action past those lows are part of the bottoming process. The October 13 low should have ended
that bottoming process and a higher market is expected. Feel Free to RT
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The stock market is at an important juncture.
Last week’s action has neither confirmed the prospects for a continued Bull market or for that of an impending decline.
Our data-based models did not generate Buy signals last week despite the strong momentum into Friday’s close.
VXN:
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Through August 11, the S&P 500 has gained +14.82% in 37 days. Of 19 bear market rallies since 1973 the median gains +10.85% and lasts 19 days. Just one Bear market both lasted longer than 37 days and gained more than +14.82% info
@miltonberg
.com
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10-04-22 Day-2 past the low the S&P 500 posted a 293/1 up-to-down volume ratio. There have been 4 times the S&P 500 generated a daily up volume ratio of > 100/1. Each led to a sustained bull move.8-17-82, 11-28-11, 12-31-12, 12-26-18.
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Many pundits who had been bearish until June and who turned Bullish in June-July remain steadfastly bullish despite the deteriorating fundamentals and Technical's. I was amused when on CNBC a prominent market technician stated that he is bullish based on seasonality. He said
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Excerpt: Report 3063
info
@miltonberg
.com
November 10 Buy Signal
SP 500 declined -10%. Held its low for 10 days
SP 500 gained in Price in 9 of the 10 Days
This has always led to a Bull m\Market!
12-08-1971: +22.37%
10-22-1998: +19.95%
3-25-2003: +26.80%
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Bull markets in 1962, 1974, 1982, 1984, 1987, 2003, 2009, 2011 and 2020 began with a 5-day surge in the S&P 500 of greater than +7.4%. We have not seen similar momentum off the June or October lows.
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The latest Montgomery Turn Cycle has drawn the Sp 500 400 600 the Russell 2000 etc to corrective lows . We covered shorts this AM. Will position long on model based buy signals if and when they present themselves.
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The Russell Micro-Cap Index (Bloomberg Symbol RMICRO) closed yesterday at a new Bear market low. This micro-cap index declined -38.91% since November 5, 2021. The November 5, 2021 top was the final peak in a triple top formation beginning on March 15, 2021.
The Russell Micro Cap
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On January 26 we shared with our clients the following Buy signal generated on January 25.
A 4-Week S&P 600 Confirmation of the S&P 500 corrective Low of December 28, and of the 7-day NASDAQ A/D Thrust of January 10
Info
@miltonberg
.com
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This is either a great buying opportunity or there are some connected parties who know something we don't.
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The first indication that the S&P 500 was perhaps beginning a runaway advance was the Upside Gap generated on November 1. This Upside gap seen in both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Indexes, was a tip off of a change in the market’s character.
Unlike the gaps that were generated in
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1-16-Report
Our NYSE Common Stock Only Breadth Indicator signaled early in this bull market on October 28, 2022, and again on January 12, 2023. 1 of 17 past signals resulted in failure. That was 12/05/2008. Median maximum gain within 12 months +21.4%.
info
@miltonberg
.com
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EXCERPT: This Morning's report. 11-09-23
A Montgomery turn cycle period began this morning. It runs through Tuesday’s close. A peak in equities seems likely by Tuesday’s close, even if it is only followed by a short term pullback.
The S&P 500 has gained in price for 8 days in a
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This is one of 10 Indicators that signaled a Buy on August 21.
NASDAQ 10-Day TRIN >0.65
NASDAQ 10-Day Breadth Thrust 2.15/1
9/11 Successful Bullish Precedents
81.82% prob Gain 120 days out. Median + 17.04%
Failed in 2022
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Historically, various capital markets have exhibited unusual volatility during the period
centered around September 21-22.
In fact, unlike most solar calendar based “cycle” dates which are man made constructs such as the well known “January Effect” or the “Year end rally” or
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The 60 day Put to Call ratio at 68.62 is in line with the levels generated at the October 9, 2007 peak though it is higher than the readings at other final highs.
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NASDAQ has gained +23.31% after declining -33.70%. The most the NASDAQ ever gained in a
bear market rally after an initial decline of less than -33% has been +17.54%. NASDAQ is not exhibiting bear market type action. info
@miltonberg
.com
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Institutional Research Service.
Report No. 3073. November 28
1. We will raise exposure to our long GLD position by 5% from 31.30% to 36.30%. For tracking purposes, we will use VWAP for the full day’s trading in GLD. Spot Gold has traded as high as
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Tax Loss Selling to the Extreme.
S&P 500 holds +6% above its closing low and +7.82% above it panic intraday low of 10-13-22.
This market is exhibiting the characteristics of a nascent bull market. Having held within -2.45% of its June "Gap into a Panic" low of 3666.77
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The S&P 500 is trading at a new all-time high. Today’s all-time high is occurring along with an upside gap. This continues the series of gap days that began on January 19. Gap action after a significant market rise is a sign of emotional buying and is associated with turning
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The current 69-day gain of +21.32% after a corrective decline of -10.28% most closely matches the November 28 1980 peak when the S&P 500 gained +18.59% in 67 days to a final peak after a -10.25% decline. A -27.11 Bear market decline followed.
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Based on five fundamental factors 1 Accelerating inflation 2 Worldwide monetary tightening 3 Housing Recession 4 Commodity Collapse and 5 Bloated retail inventory, there was no reason for S&P 500 to hold above its June low for three months. Technicals suggest bullish outcome
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S&P 500 generated an 80-to-1 downside-to-upside Declines/Advances ratio. This occurred 27 times since 1980. 120 days later the S&P 500 had gained in price 80% of the time for a median gain of +13.23%. The median decline in the other 20% of instances has been -4.26%.
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Todays Report Excerpts,
1.Not Too Late To Panic
2. The Russell 2000 closed the day at 1651.42. Its Bear market low of 1649.83 is being tested. It generated two lows at 1649.83 and at 1655.88. It generated three highs (a “Triple Top”) at 2021.34,
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A MAJOR Montgomery Turn-Cycle Period goes into effect tomorrow.
The primary turn cycle candidates for a potential bottom and reversal in this upcoming cycle period are, the S&P 500, NASDAQ composite, NASDAQ 100, S&P 400 mid-cap, S&P 600 small-cap, NYSE
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My report for today begins as follows. After preparing this report, we discovered that a significant portion of the record NASDAQ volume was caused by CKRN, a penny meme stock which traded 3 billion shares yesterday. This report may therefore prove immaterial.
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The way we see it, the S&P 500 should begin the year 2003 with a surge to the upside. Tax loss selling in the former high flyers has weighed down the US averages during the month of December.
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The Russell 2000 closed -5.61% below its last high on December 27, 2023. At final S&P 500 peaks in 1998, 2000, 2007, 2018 and 2021, the Russell 2000 diverged as well. The median decline in the Russell 2000 from its last high to the final high in the S&P 500 has been -5.26%. It
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Our models generated 117 buy signals during the period from October 3, 2022, through December 15, 2023.
Buy signals are generated when our models recognize rare and non-random data that in the past have consistently led to gains in the S&P 500, that were greater than that which
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We really have little reason to discount the probability that we are at the start of a major market decline. Technically the low 10-day Put to Call, series of upside and downside gaps four day acceleration towards the high, extreme 5-day upside volume the March low in the BKX
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At today’s intraday high, S&P 500 is trading +0.49% above its February 2 gap day intraday high. S&P 500 has not accelerated in price since its exhaustive gap of February 2, as today’s gap has not led to significantly higher highs. This churning action at a top is typical at
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Based on the 60-year and 90-year WD Gann cycles, A final low for the current bear market was seen in June.
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More than 80% of issues are trading lower than they did exactly 60 days ago.
While this oversold type indicator often signals at corrective market lows, and at Bear market lows, it has often generated kick-offs to Bear market declines. February 27, 1973,
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The Hang Seng Index can be used as a bellwether for markets worldwide. If the gain in Hang Seng holds, that would be a bullish indicant for markets worldwide. If the low is violated, that would suggest continued decline in other markets as well.
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S&P 500 declined >-15% and bottomed three days prior.TRIN on Day 3 below 0.40. A Day 3 TRIN thrust after a >-15% decline occurred three times in the past. 10-12-1966, 8-17-1982, 10-06-2011. These Signals were followed by bull markets. Minor pullbacks of -0.57%, -0.46% -0.81%.
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Friday: (1-day vs 7-day intraday volatility at 240%)+(S&P 500 90/1 downside/upside volume). This combination occurred 8 times since 1986. It never led to a continuing bear market decline. Gains of 43%, 15%, 47%, 10%, 35%, 10%, 11%, and 59% followed the signal. info
@miltonberg
.com
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The S&P 500 generated a Coppock Buy signal as of March 31. Since 1958, a successful S&P 500 Coppock Buy signal has been generated 3,10,0,1,4,3,4,7,and 6 months after the final low.
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October 25: Advancing/Declining Volume in the S&P 500 exceeded 9/1 for 3 of 10 days. This has occurred 10 times in the past with a historic median max gain within 252-days of +22.52%.
In each instance the prior market low held. The October 12 low has not been violated.
Bullish!
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The attached Charts exhibit the Bull market Call generated at the October lows. Each of these indicators were tweeted at the time. This is a small fraction of the dat our clients receive in real time. MB
October 4 100/1 volume Thrust Buy signal
info
@miltonberg
.com
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Of those indicators, important ones include the 10 day NASDAQ TRIN at 0.74, which is lower and more bearish than that generated at the final NASDAQ peaks on May 29, 1981 (TRIN 0.97 followed by a decline -28.71%), October 31, 2007 (TRIN 1.07 followed by a decline -55.63%), August
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There have been 7 Blow-Off type tops in the S&P 500 since 1968. That is a short sharp gain into a final peak occurring after a corrective decline of -5% or more
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The S&P 600 Small Cap Index generated BREAKOUT action on June 6 as it traded above its April 3 1182.71 close and its 1189.05 intraday high. This breakout looked valid since that index gained +2.84% and +2.40% on June 6 and 7 and its 5-day gain of +8.28% was its greatest 5-day
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At the last closing high in the S&P 500 Index on March 1, all but one of the indicators in our ‘Technicals at the High’ table were at levels consistent with those seen at final Bull market peaks. The 94 new highs in the S&P 500 is above the maximum 87 seen at a final peak in the
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The underlying technical data has deteriorated.
10-day NYSE TRIN at 1.00 is below the 1.03 and 1.08 of May 21 and March 28.
10-Day S&P 500 TRIN at 0.88 is below the 1.02 and 1.00 of May 21 and March 28.
10-Day NASDAQ TRIN at 0.62 is below the 0.75 and 0.81 of May 21 and March
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If this were a Bear Market Rally then the NASDAQ gain of +22.52% off the decline of -33.70% would be the GREATEST bear market rally ever in NASDAQ after an interim bear market decline of -37% or less
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"Milton Berg's Encyclopedic Guide to Technical Analysis and the Stock Market" (Available Late 2023)
(10-Day Breadth Broad Multi-Cap Index 1.97-1)+
(S&P 400 Mid-Cap 10-Day ROC >9%)
Signalled 9 times in history followed by Bull Market. Never signaled in a Bear Market Rally.
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Typical: Within the first 46 days of this bull market S&P 500 pulled back -4.10%. 46 days into Great Bull Markets in 1962, 1970, 1974, 1987, 1998, 2002, and 2011, the S&P 500 began or completed pullbacks of -10.52%, -9.28%, -13.56%, -7.06%, -10.00% -14.71% and -9.85%. Its OK!
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The second in a series of Montgomery turn cycles centers on March 10, and it starts at the open of trading on Thursday March 7. Equities and Bitcoin have been exhibiting emotionally charged trading action and are therefore prime candidates to be effected by the Cycles. Gold which
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I would suggest watching the full interview. In it I attempt to paint a Bullish Picture with a target of 5500-5550. However the technical's at the current time are screaming either or correction/Bull market peak . Blow off has already occurred.
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Fourth of seven bullish signals other than Breadth Thrust.
4: June 24: NASDAQ 5-day gain >9%. S&P 400 5-day decline >-9% 5 days ago: Reversal Buy signal. Gains within 12 months, 54.43%, 52.07%, 22.10%, 12.06%, 35.45%.
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From July 18, 1930, through May 17, 1947, a >1.90/1 NYSE Breadth Thrust occurred 65 times with numerous
failures. The record of the NYSE BT signal prior to 1949 is not an encouraging one. These signals most often occurred near a market peak, rather than early in a bull move.
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The exteme Overbought Oscillator readings, the VXN devaition signal, the increase in rates, the 1-25 to 2-3 reversals in asset classes worldwide, the most positive sentiment in >1 year the increased volume into 2-2, we have tactically reduced exposure.
info
@miltonberg
.com
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As stated to Jack, what seems obvious is often obviously wrong. Our own monetary indicators flashed a liquidity surge at December’s close. The attachedr measures ((M1/M20/CRB). It signaled at exact market lows in '74 & '11.
Called exact $NDX low in 12-2023.
info
@miltonberg
.com
@JackFarley96
@BergMilton
A few things a chart won’t tell you…Most significant decline in M2 on record, durable inverted yield curve, y/y GDP growth of less than 1%, PMI services/manuf well into contraction range and housing mkt decline of 30%. That’s just for starters..
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The CBOE Put to Call ratio closed yesterday at 1.46.
This is the third greatest reading in history. Bear Market rallies followed 2 signals in 2001 and 1 signal in 2008. A decline of -11.06% and -9.81% immediately followed signals in 2015 and 2020.
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It has been 28 days since the peak in the Russell 2000. In the past the lead time from the peak in the Russell 2000 to the peak in the S&P 500 has ranged from 11 days to 61 days.
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At today’s close of 3895.75, the S&P 500 has declined -4.52% in 11 days off its November 30 closing high of 4080.11.
It is likely that this pullback is corrective in nature rather than a continuation of the bear market.
info
@miltonberg
.com
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Bullish Review: October 25: S&P 500 generates its third > 9 to 1 upside volume day in 10 days. In the 10 times in the past bull market gains followed. Pullbacks ranged from -0.41% to -5.35%. Our Pullback -3.61%. This adds bullish weight to an already bullish market picture.
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We are remaining positioned flat. Cycle theory suggests that continued gains into the cycle period may allow us to position short, while a pullback towards the low into the cycle period should signal a buying opportunity. For now its wait and see.
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Today’s action added an important negative chart pattern. The S&P 500 generated an upside gap into a divergent new high. The divergences are against the Russell 2000, Bank issues, Advance-Decline line and the S&P 500 unweighted indexes.
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Fidelity Sector Funds two straight months of inflows. Second month inflow >25% above the first. Last occurred >2 years ago. Signals early in Bull Markets. As well as at Bear market Rally Peaks in 1/2001 5/2008 and 1/2009. These are select signals are not tradable!
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Everyone is Bullish I am not yet near 100% short though I should be.
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On a fundamental basis, the indicators are more suggestive of a Bear market decline ahead than of a corrective decline. Interest rate action, Central bank monetary policy, leading economic indicators, money supply, Gross national Income, and the inverted yield curve are more
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This buy signal is 1 of 19 Buy signals generated within 7 days of the October 7, 1966, bear market low. The S&P 500 declined -22.18% to the low. It gained +48.05% to the next bull market peak on 11-29-68 516 days later. From the Book. See Chart. info
@miltonberg
.com
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On October 8, a broad equity index generated a 2.05/1 Advance/Decline day. This is the first such reading since 10-08-2020. In the pastthis has led to a Bull market 89% of the time.
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10-21-22 Day-7 off the low, S&P 500 gained >+2% (+2.37%), on increased volume. 6 times in the past the S&P 500 generated a new low more than -12% below its prior high, held that low for 6 days, and on Day-7 gained >+2% on increasing volume. Free to RT
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Today is a Paul Montgomery Ides of March Turn Cycle Date. This bottomed the S&P 500 in March 2009. The Paris CAC is at an all-time high this morning in the face of a tight central bank. Will the Ides of March top that market? (See attached or hold your comments)
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For Institutional Subscription Information Contact info
@miltonberg
.com
This is an excerpt from Report NO. 3038 dated October 19, 2023. Positioning was re-adjusted on 10-20.
1. We anticipate continued declines ahead of us in the equity markets. There are no new indicator
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Short Sharp Bear Market Rallies
Excerpt Report No. 3057.
Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite have in the past generated strong and sharp short-term gains off temporary lows within an ongoing Bear market. Through our extensive indicator base, we attempt to discern those rallies
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I Ran the Jerusalem Marathon in 2017. Came in 3rd.........
from last.
Met my objective.
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In 1929, the market declined -37.53% after the Day-11 +1.95% gain. If the S&P 500 declines tomorrow and trades at new lows, the 1929 analog will become the primary scenario. If the S&P500 continues higher over the next two days, the June 16 low will then prove significant.
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The Volume, Spikes and Gaps into and out of the February 2 high (AGG, XLK, VWO, VNQ, SLV, NDX, IWF, GLD, GDX) the Double Tops and Bull Trap Reversals (see MID and NDXE) have changed the nature of the tape. Both the FED and the TAPE are now potentially negative.
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