CrossBorder Capital
@crossbordercap
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Global research group focussed on monitoring credit,liquidity conditions & capital flows in over 90 economies info @crossbordercapital .com for GLI index and data
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Why Monitoring Global Liquidity is SO Important …
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Our latest GLI Global Liquidity Indexes for end-July released today. A taster... World Central Banks still adding fuel
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"Houston, we have a problem..." We keep warning about
#China
but this latest data doesn't feel good...
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Latest data releases today show Global
#Liquidity
starting to skid lower. Not great news, but ironically this is NOT Central Banks squeezing. It is about collateral misbehaving in wake of Japan's
#YCC
change,
#Fitch
's madness and Janet's heavy coupon calender...
@johnauthers
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There's a decent chance that the upcoming
#QRA
could be positive for markets, depending on how much bill issuance is scaled back and on the absolute funding needs. Let's see. On top, Fed
#liquidity
background is not as bad as many fear... 'QS' = 'quantitative support'!
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Friday freebie...
@crossbordercap
I hope you are doing well!
Where could I find your updated global liquidity chart that pictures cycles from 1968 neatly tucked into a sin(t) wave? 🤝
X seems to have forgotten about it, does not appear in my search anywhere...
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If
#US
economy really heading for
#recession
, why are
#Treasury
term premia breaking out higher? Surely they should be collapsing!
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Yikes ...some just happened to
#Fed
#liquidity
...biggest weekly jump since SVB
@EthanYWu
@johnauthers
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Our latest research piece explores the implications of the stronger
#JPY
and potentially weaker
#USD
. Was a secret deal struck? Consider, the 1985 Plaza Accord triggered a Global
#liquidity
boom. Could history rhyme? Watch
#DXY
!
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Whatever the compelling moral case, the economic impact of April 20th,'s decision could match August 15th, 1971 when Nixon took US off
#gold
⚡️ The US House of Representatives approves a bill allowing the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine
Ukraine could receive almost $8 billion under this procedure. Now the bill must be approved by the US Senate.
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Bad news for the
#QE
deniers ...
#liquidity
continues to rise strongly. The markets appear to agree...
@johnauthers
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This is the 'must watch' chart. Something big is happening... monetary inflation is here!
6/ Gold is inversely correlated to real interest rates
Falling gold prices suggest rising real interest rates and vice-versa
The current Gold breakout suggests investors anticipate a decline in real interest rates
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Seasonally July is a 'weak' month for
#China
#liquidity
. The past few days show something is going on. Dare we hope? Combined with
#Japan
o/n policy move and today's
#FOMC
, have policy-makers agreed to allow China some space?
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Yup you guessed it. Big jump in MOVE is not good for Global
#Liquidity
since collateral multiplier drops (i.e. haircuts rise)
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#Bonds
are starting to look bad... US Treasury term premia (black) are breaking higher and pushing 10y yields up (orange). This isn't good for
#liquidity
which uses a lot of collateral
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50-year history of Global
#Liquidity
index with latest update showing
#CSFB
and
#SVB
...at the low. Up from here!?
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'What Drives Crypto Asset Prices?' paper cited by
@johnauthers
nicely confirms our view that it's mostly
#liquidity
. Whoa!
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#Fed
playing a dangerous
#liquidity
game....banks' reserves falling into a 'grey zone' where tensions can rise. Projections take latest
#QRA
at face value 1/2
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The long term Global
#liquidity
cycle 1970-2023
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Why is iron ore so weak and commodities stumbling?
#China
and
#PBoC
explain a lot.
#Liquidity
is starting to turn, but its been depressed...
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Worth watching
#Liquidity
stress falls sharply in last two trading days, coincident with
#Fed
at
#JacksonHole
Something cookin' or a blip?
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Our estimates of 'fair value'
#SPX
#SP500
based on latest bond market metrics... now sub-3000
@gnoble79
@johnauthers
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June GLI (Global Liquidity Indexes) report out today. Teaser chart...still Movin' on Up
@johnauthers
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The great sucking sound. Watching the collateral base of the global financial system disappear...
Stress in the financial system is rising: The value of global bonds dropped another $428bn this week as the interest rate world keeps repricing for a higher for longer. In past quarter, bonds lost ~$1.8tn in value and everyone is puzzling over who has the losses on their books.
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#bond
selloff is damaging Global
#liquidity
by undermining collateral-heavy 'shadow monetary base' ...
#stockmarkets
will face renewed headwinds
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Michael Howell: Central Banks Are About To Make A Major Error
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As we have been warning... China cannot keep up this pace of
#liquidity
. Cyclical dip coming?!
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Tightness in US money markets starting to appear...
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Wow $1.859 trillion of Treasury issuance slated for next 6 months....a giant sucking sound for stocks?
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New CBC data series launched today. A weekly Global
#Liquidity
series. Its not just G5 Central Banks, but includes private sector credit provision and comprises an aggregate pool of $170 trillion. Spoiler alert ... the trend is up!
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This is a problem. Collateral rapidly disappearing ....
#liquidity
being hit by this and rising MOVE index
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@crossbordercap
Michael, do you have a chart that shows how gold is a monetary inflation hedge and not a high street inflation hedge?
In the chart below, gold moved rangebound during the most recent highest inflation setup in the US
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World economy waving not drowning! But
#GDP
slow = best time for risk assets!! Goldilocks rules?
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World GDP softening, not yet stalling. Latest daily nowcast...
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There are no unrelated events in international finance...
#Treasuries
out,
#gold
in?
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US Pacific shipping volumes up 40% YoY. Singapore and Chinese ports buoyant. Something going on... What
#recession
?
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#bond
selloff is damaging Global
#liquidity
by undermining collateral-heavy 'shadow monetary base' ...
#stockmarkets
will face renewed headwinds
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Why are
#commodities
breaking higher? Why are bond yields trending up? Hmmmm....Looks a very 'normal' cycle?
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Why
#QE
is coming back. All 3 scenarios in latest
@BIS_org
Annual Report show rising debt/GDP...who buys the debt?! =
#CentralBanks
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Global Liquidity losing momentum and April could prove a trough month as US tax paying season kicks off and drains money markets...
@KobeissiLetter
@crossbordercap
I know we should keep rising due to Global Liquidity but how much higher can this metric go or when do we overheat and have a crash?
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Aggghhhh! Welcome to the Global
#liquidity
cliff edge!
Supply of all
#USD
Worldwide... including off-shore
#Credit
crunch ahead...
@rbrtrmstrng
@gnoble79
@leadlagreport
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Big bad
#liquidity
news from weekly data. Global Liquidity in $ dropping 25% ann. or fastest rate for more than 25 yrs. Houston…we have a problem!
@johnauthers
@rbrtrmstrng
@gnoble79
@ttmygh
@JackFarley96
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Our estimates of how much 'yield suppression' aka 'hidden' YCC (yield curve control) is going on in US Treasuries. Most important price in financial mkts is being distorted lower by 80bp!
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Whoa! Are US Treasury term premia breaking out higher?
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#bond
selloff is damaging Global
#liquidity
by undermining collateral-heavy 'shadow monetary base' ...
#stockmarkets
will face renewed headwinds
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#Bonds
are starting to look bad... US Treasury term premia (black) are breaking higher and pushing 10y yields up (orange). This isn't good for
#liquidity
which uses a lot of collateral
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Latest pick up in RRP starting to feed into higher
#liquidity
stress... time for more
#Fed
! Daily index jumpy, but trend plainly rising
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This is the dangerous spot
#bonds
are in. It confirms the warnings from
@dampedspring
,
@crossbordercap
and
@real_bill_gross
. Term premia (black line) are hugely depressed (minus 150bp ex vol and CPI%) and prospective change in net supply dynamics (orange) warn of upcoming
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Printer does not go brr any more - via
@FT
. But it does?
@rbrtrmstrng
Janet is duration managing US debt by shortening tenor of calender. Banks are buying = monetization. Just ask Milton!
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Chart shows importance of correctly measuring
#Global
#Liquidity
. GLI index (orange) includes other Central Banks, private sector banks and 'dollar effects' have been cleaned away. Still, hair-brushed and scrubbed-up good news is liquidity is rising!
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Not much help from
#China
yet...and latest US TGA disappointingly seasonally high...the waiting game!
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Soft
#economy
no surprise given previous
#liquidity
squeeze. Policy-makers likely do not understand the lags. They have been too slow to ease... esp given derailment of
#Chinese
economic locomotive!
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Its a compelling thought especially given that over this time frame Global
#Liquidity
movements have been dominated by Central Bank actions. FYI the '65 month' cycle came from a 1999 study we did using Fourier Analysis... extrapolated since then
@MikeIppolito_
Maybe this is the real reason crypto has four year cycles
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Worth pondering...Asian shipping picking up, commodities on a roll, copper bursting higher...
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2/2 ...already collateral shortages appearing more frequently in US money markets...
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Got it?...
This is absolutely priceless. And probably the most frightening clip you'll ever watch on the people in charge of the US economy.
Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy
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#bankofengland
are you crazy?
#Bailey
has just delivered shortest suicide note in history! A Central Bank has just left a market to malfunction, when it was the main cause!!
@FT
@WSJ
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The Global
#Liquidity
expansion continues and risk assets are liking it...evidence latest Central Bank activity in heatmap
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Latest Global
#liquidity
data $163.4 trillion (8/25/23, spoiler alert: full measure including private sector) becoming a drag on risk assets
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#NASDAQ
moving almost 1:1 with latest
#Fed
#Liquidity
injections....Liquidity=duration=tech? The 'non-QE' QE continues for yet another week
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...and a decent
#liquidity
start to 2024
H/t to
@TonyTassell
and
@FT
Similar arguments made us bullish in 2023 and bearish in 2022. This year looks a bit more nuanced but...
Markets should be buoyed by increased
#liquidity
in 2024 - via
@FT
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An inflexion? Latest update of
#China
#Liquidity
and daily nowcast of World
#GDP
... China matters. See our latest research
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Lets restate the cyclical picture.
#liquidity
bottoms before the yield curve steepens and
#recession
follows a steeper curve. Liquidity typically rises as economy sinks. So far this cycle look on track!
#stocks
always rise in Calm regime and can rise in Rebound phase
@johnauthers
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This maybe bad stats but still a decent stab. Each $100b of
#Fed
#liquidity
added circa 50 pts to
#SPX
. Fed slated to withdraw $95b per month over 2 years.. that means a 27% fall in
#WallStreet
Woah!
@gnoble79
@johnauthers
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Never assume anything!
#China
PBoC injects record RMB632bn (circa $90bn)
#liquidity
into markets! So much for a coming slowdown
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@crossbordercap
maintains indexes of global liquidity. These huge changes in money availability more to explain shifts in markets in last year than the latest economic prognosis. To explain 2019’s markets in one chart this is the one.”
@johnauthers
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This nails it exactly... Why is JayPow so keen to cut rates?
Issuing more t-bills at an accelerating pace is a precondition to becoming a banana republic. This is the type of thing you see emerging markets do, not the issuer of the world's reserve currency and neutral reserve asset.
If you believe that the Fed's primary goal is smooth
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