Brian Wesbury
@wesbury
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Chief Economist, First Trust LP. The Antidote to Conventional Wisdom. Eagle Scout. Northwestern MBA. Goalie dad. And, yes, I own a John Deere tractor!
Kremmling, CO
Joined March 2009
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The Omicron variant knocked 905 points off the Dow yesterday. Today, there are over 105,000 people at a football game in Ann Arbor, MI. In other words, people aren’t fearful of Omicron, they are fearful of the government’s response to Omicron.
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I have lived in Chicago or suburbs for 35 years. I have seen bad leadership, but the incompetence of the Chicago Mayor, Lori Lightfoot, is inexcusable. People are dying. Businesses are destroyed. One of the great cities in the world, and the mayor seems to want it destroyed.
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American Airlines cancels 600 flights and says they are dealing with weather problems.
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Arizona shows a directionally nice decline in new cases per 100,000 people and a drop in ICU space used by COVID. This site always extrapolates to the worst case. A little alarmist, but the new case count has been going down for TWO WEEKS. Better news, better markets.
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When California starts to complain about a lack of water this summer, and blames climate change, let’s never forget that they probably received enough precipitation this year to take care of the next 3 years. It’s not the Colorado River…it’s that they didn’t plan or build. If
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Texas has a decline in new cases as well, and it’s hospital ICUs are at 87% of capacity. Like Florida, things look better. Obviously there are still a few hospitals at capacity, but even there things are looking better.
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Janet Yellen is saying that Congress needs to raise the US Treasury’s debt ceiling to avoid “catastrophe.” Try calling your credit card company up and using the same argument. How about Congress stops spending to avoid “catastrophe.”
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Deaths per 1 million population (8/5/20), Worldometers.
NJ - 1,793
NY - 1,686
MA - 1,256
CT - 1,245
United Kingdom - 677
Spain - 608
Sweden - 564
USA - 461
FL - 345
TX - 264
Forgive me for asking this question, but who failed the American people?
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Here is a chart of mask wearing versus daily positive cases of COVID. Mask wearing is a survey, but shows little change in mask wearing since July 2020. Yet cases surged, fell back, surged big, and fell back again. I get the “virtue” of wearing a mask, but where are “results”?
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Let’s stop paying all salaries for politicians and bureaucrats right now...for as long as the shutdown lasts...then let’s see how long it lasts. Why should they get paid, when many American’s are losing their jobs due to government required shutdowns?
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In 1930, the federal government cost about 2.5% of our GDP. Today, it is 23% of our GDP. Over the past 90 years, the cost of government has gone up 9 times faster than overall economic output. That’s price gouging.
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Table 3 of the CDC’s data on deaths between 2/1 and 8/22 2020 says directly that only 6% of the 161,392 reported COVID deaths were listed as COVID-19 alone, just 9,684. All other US deaths had, on average, 2.6 additional conditions.
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US COVID testing has expanded from around 100k per day in March and April to over 600k now. If we had been testing 600k per day the entire time, and we use the previous positive test rate (which is an assumption), this is what it would look like. Today’s surge would be small.
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Real GDP rose at a 33.1% annualized rate in the third quarter, the strongest quarter since the ramp up in war spending for World War II. The US economy has recovered to 96.5% of it’s pre-pandemic level of output.
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Inflation = printing money. Period. Prices are measured in dollars. If we create too many dollars, that causes the value of the dollar to fall in terms of goods and services. This “inflation” started 18 months ago. Shortages and supply chain issues are a separate issue.
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For no virus, has the US ever shut down its economy, put millions out of work, increased the money supply by 33%, spent $5 trillion. These are the real problems. All this nonsense about vaccines, masks, etc are just sideshows.
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This surge in oil prices did not happen because of Ukraine, and the more they say it did, the more inflation I expect. Why? Because that means they are making excuses. Just like the 1970s.
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I really hope all the people who are scared of COVID, truly scared, and not just trying to keep the economy shutdown, look at this chart and understand its implications. In March over 7% of those hospitalized with COVID, died. Today it’s just over 1%, as deaths keep falling.
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I’m not anti-vax, but we must admit that the “vaccine” did not do what the scientists said it would do early on. Vax mandate supporters keep saying this is a “messaging problem”….when it clearly seems to me that this is a “science problem.”
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A 19-year old can take out a $150,000 student loan, with no down payment and no collateral, but would NEVER be able to take out the same loan to buy a house. That’s insane.
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Every problem the US faces today was predictable.
Print money, get inflation.
Shut down economy, destroy supply chains.
Stop policing, crime goes up.
Hand money out for not working, get shortages.
Use appeasement as foreign policy, get geopolitical tensions.
#juststopit
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Hedge Funds convinced the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department in 2008 to keep mark-to-market accounting and put money into the system to protect their short positions. Now, they are convincing the same entities to handcuff small investors to protect their shorts again.
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The President of the United States should know, absolutely know in his bones, that the Department of Labor does not have the Constitutional authority to enforce vaccine mandates on private business. This idea is anti-American, unconstitutional, and plain stupid.
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If you make your kids wear masks in between bites, my kids are going to sign their paychecks.
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@Rossputin
@AnnaKellyWI
I go to one space when I need to fit under the limit. Otherwise two spaces. It lets the reader absorb and move on. Just like narrower columns and short sentences. Age and guile beat youth and ADHD.
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Oil and gas prices are NOT up solely because of Russia…the inflation was already here and it came from too much money printing.
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I am reading COVID-19: The Great Reset, by Klaus Schwab, the founder of The World Economic Forum. Their big meeting is in Davos, with the world elites. Now I understand why the elites keep pressing, even when they make no sense, on COVID, masks, vaccines, variants, schools, etc.
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The Pendulum is swinging. Reality and math eventually win. Sweden finally figures out electricity doesn’t come from a plug.
Sweden Shocks Europe: Abandons 'Unstable' Green Energy Agenda, Returns to Nuclear Power
Sweden Shocks Europe: Abandons 'Unstable' Green Energy Agenda, Returns to Nuclear Power
redstate.com
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Germany is raising defense spending above 2% of GDP, while creating a new strategic natural gas reserve. It’s hard to fight wars with windmills. Who knew…
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Just watched a 60 Minutes thing about COVID. It featured the disease and deaths, but never told us that the survival rate is 99.7%.
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Being for the Constitution, for low tax rates, for free speech, against big government, and against a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill does not make a person an “insurrectionist.” Free market capitalism is not “radical.” Do not be scared to support it.
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What a strange world we live in. President Trump RAISED taxes on high income earners in high tax states by limiting the SALT deduction. Now, President Biden is considering CUTTING these high income earners taxes by lifting the deduction. Isn’t this a “tax cut for the rich”?
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I find this absolutely outrageous. The Treasury General Account (TGA) was $941 billion on April 25, 2024. As of May 30, 2024 it was $704 billion.
In other words, the Treasury dumped $237 billion back into bank accounts (M2) during May. Not the Fed…the US Department of the
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I haven’t worn a mask in six months, except on airplanes, but all of a sudden in Illinois everyone is wearing them. This is ridiculous. Time to leave here for good.
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John Kerry said Solar Panel Installation was the fastest growing job in America. What he didn’t say is that there are only 12,000 Solar Panel Installers in America, out of 142,621,000 total jobs. For comparison, Oil & Gas Exploration employs 163,700.
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The unbelievable testing and precautions used to protect the President of the United States from COVID failed. The fact he got it is a clear sign that anyone can get it. If you go to the grocery store, restaurants, protests, anywhere, you can get it. Lockdowns are stupid.
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HP leaving California for Texas, Goldman moving people from New York to Texas and Florida. The escape from high tax, “woke” states is snowballing. The only way it stops is with a reversal of tax, spending and regulatory policies. Unfortunately, they’re in denial.
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If someone has already recovered from COVID, and they have antibodies, there is no way any reasonable scientist could possibly argue that a vaccine should be required.
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If you think $130 billion for schools was going to keep them open, you probably think $130 trillion is going to change the climate.
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Please tell me how the world can have thousands of flights right now, with flight attendants, pilots, freight loaders, etc., working all over the world…BUT we can’t get teachers back in school. There is no credible science to justify any of these decisions.
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If I were Donald Trump, I would open the debate by politely reminding Jake Tapper that he compared him (Trump) to Adolph Hitler and ask him if he would like to apologize or amend this statement. Just to get everyone started on the right foot.
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The United States became the most successful and rich country in history because of free market capitalism. The idea that we now should become more like China to compete with China is totally ridiculous.
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Join me today July 24th on Fox Business MONEY with Melissa Francis at 4:20pmCT/5:20pmET will discuss the U.S. economy.
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Anyone who calls the damage to children from the COVID lockdowns an “unintended consequence,” infuriates me. We knew the “consequences” and the “risks” by the summer of 2020, yet we kept many schools closed well into 2021. There should be consequences for those who did this.
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COVID is the key “crisis” driving their agenda - open borders, massive redistribution, gov’t healthcare, higher taxes, a green new deal. Yes, they always wanted these things. But, if COVID was over, it’s harder to leverage the politics. No wonder it’s not over. Pure manipulation.
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George Orwell’s book “1984” was published in 1949. Here is an excerpt. Kinda scary....
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From a young age I learned to love America and what it stands for. I have never wanted any bad thing to happen to the country, or any of its leaders.
I am also an economist that has studied, read, and thought about history and economic theory for 40 years. This thinking has
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Why is it “considerate” of me to wear a mask around you if you are scared? Why isn’t it “inconsiderate” of you to make me wear one if I don’t want to? Why can’t you just stay home? It’s easy to stay home. Just as easy as it is to wear a mask.
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When Milton Friedman was trying to teach the world how to fix inflation in the 1960s and 70s, people didn’t understand him, and thought he was crazy. Then he became a hero. Unfortunately, those of us trying to remind everyone about what he taught us…are now considered crazy.
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As I watched last night, I kept thinking you “cut police budgets,” “purposefully did executive orders to open the border,” “are holding back weapons from Israel,” “are forcing people to buy electric cars and electric stoves,” “massively increased the deficit,” “told people that
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Message to our young people.
If you are setting up your life to depend on government, you are missing out on the greatest things in life. Government is boring and predictable, the free market is challenging and exciting. If you choose boring, if you choose accepting bribes, if
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“Natural Immunity” kind of puts a dagger in vaccine mandates, right? Why make someone who already has immunity get a vaccine, or charge them more for health insurance!
1/ Wow. New Israeli preprint shows natural immunity to
#SARSCoV2
is FAR superior to the artificial kind - vaccinated people were 13x as likely to be infected and 27x to have symptomatic infections as a matched cohort that was previously infected. And this is with Delta dominant.
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At the exact same moment the Democrats voted to impeach President Trump, China said it had agreed to a trade deal.
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I feel vindicated. I always said that all these dire predictions were based on flawed models. Deborah Birx, Head of WH Coronavirus Task Force just said “Predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground.” Even in Italy.
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Hey, if you want to run someone for President, you can do whatever you want. But telling everyone “he’s your man” until three weeks ago, and not having a primary, and then trying to bait and switch at the last minute, looks really bad. And after telling us all you fixed COVID,
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I am on a Cruise ship in the middle of the Mediterranean. Just after midnight I received a message from my son, over Starlink WiFi, that shots had been fired at Trump. Within minutes of the shooting, I found video on X (Twitter)…I never turned on the TV. Also, within minutes,
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One of the saddest things about those voters who support big government because it benefits them is that it will destroy their souls. Encouraging someone with power to steal from someone who produces and then give it to you is simply immoral. It encourages people to play
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There absolutely no way Joe Biden’s economic plan will raise wages by $15,000 a year. That is economically impossible. The only thing that raises wages is economic growth which is created by entrepreneurship!
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OK - Let’s analyze this Trump idea. Replacing the income tax with tariffs on imports.
1) The income tax wasn’t instituted until 1913. Up to that point we financed the US with excise taxes and tariffs.
2) The Federal government was a whole heck of a lot smaller than it
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There is no way members of Congress, their spouses, or their kids that live at home should be allowed to invest in IPOs, or actually, any individual stocks without clearing. Those of us in the financial services industry have to clear every trade…for anyone in our house.
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Here’s my prediction…the less traction the Stimulus Bill has, the more traction The Delta Variant will get.
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This has been bothering me ... Trump said in his Town Hall that DeSantis locked down Florida during COVID. This is 100% false. Very few states were as free and open. DeSantis did a magnificent job. Why say this? When we all know, it's just not true
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If you don’t pay your rent or your mortgage, it’s not your home.
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I know I risk getting attacked for taking political sides, but this video by Vice President Mike Pence is simply amazing...any one who calls it dark is insane. I have tears in my eyes.
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Your financial advisor cannot guarantee you a profit. At the same time, you cannot guarantee yourself a profit. What is certain is that your financial advisor (for the most part), can help you keep your own emotions from hurting you. So, don’t blame them for a bear market.
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You’ve probably seen it, but just in case. The entire climate change narrative is the biggest fraud ever committed on the human race. MRNA vaccines and COVID lockdowns are a close second.
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@PaulREhrlich
If all your work has been peer reviewed, then I don’t trust your peers either. And, to remind you, Thomas Malthus beat you to this storyline by 200 years. And, he was just as wrong.
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Frank Luntz, one of Fox’s favorite political commentators, just said last nights debate was a “Disaster for American Democracy.” Look, I understand his annoyance, but no one burned down a building, shot anyone or actually undermined democracy. So, what is he talking about?
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The absolute best way to fight fascism is to get the federal government as far away from our lives as we can. Power to the states. Power to the family. Power to the individual!
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I was suspended from
@Twitter
for questioning our governments response to COVID and for mentioning Klaus Schwab’s book “COVID-19: The Great Reset.” I appealed 7 days ago and asked what “rule” I violated. No answer! Why…because they don’t have one. Just pure spite.
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The way I understand the news today is that if you won’t get your vaccine voluntarily, the government will force you to by shutting you out of everyday life. No longer are we allowed to absorb information and make our own decisions. Freedom is slipping through our fingers.
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Just to let everyone know…the “Root Cause” of just about every problem we face is an excessively large government.
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Here we are, 200 years of respiratory virus history has been proven right…again…they mutate, become less deadly and keep spreading. Unfortunately, human political behavior hasn’t changed either - Grab power, make a mess of things, but never admit mistakes.
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You know what drives me absolutely batty? The entitled people who don’t understand how dirty, tired and sore people get bringing them food, gasoline, water, electricity, cell service, or a thousand other things that they cannot possibly make themselves. They complain, they
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The Brexit vote forewarned/forecasted the Trump victory. The latest U.K. vote for Boris Johnson forecasts the next US election. People are tired of EU and US Democrat vindictiveness. People will say, enough already! Political power has gone beyond what freedom desires.
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The world (US) is willing to allow a country to be invaded, but not willing to remove the invader from an international financial system…like SWIFT. If Georgia changes it’s voting laws we move the MLB AllStar game. But if you kill people, we will still buy oil from you.
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US federal, state & local governments spend roughly 45% of GDP. Add in the cost of complying with regulations, etc (~7% of GDP)…and ~52% of everything the US produces is taxed or borrowed by government.
These are European levels and the US is now experiencing European growth
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Think about this. We did TARP & QE, then COVID spending and more QE. We didn’t need to do any of it. Now, we have less budget room in a more dangerous world. And we drained the SPR because of the inflation bad policy caused. Talk about not planning for the future.
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The 5/12/20 drop in stocks can be called the “Fauci Crash.” Economic and non-virus health damage is growing, but that’s seemingly not important. The problem with “experts” is that they know a lot about a little and don’t think about the “macro” impact.
#SwedenvsFauci
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The Government wants political credit for a recovery from a recession that it caused. Simply amazing.
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Novartis CEO "Pre-clinical studies in animals as well as the first data from clinical studies show that hydroxychloroquine kills the coronavirus,"
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My new hometown newspaper. Not sure how long I can last here. This is absolutely pathetic.
@denverpost
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Hedge Funds, with zero remorse, tore apart great financial institutions in 2008. No one halted trading to help the target companies survive those attacks. No one got rid of mark-to-market accounting. Why are we halting trading now? Why are we protecting them?
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If a Flight Attendant can handle 50, 70, 130 people on a plane safely, or a Grocery Store clerk can handle 200+ checkouts without problems, I think a teacher can handle 24 students. Open up the schools!!!
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Do people really think the White House can boost farm output, bring down the price of gas, or fix the ports? This socialist dream of government running things is absurd. DC can’t even make a pencil.
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When Jared Polis releases that last wolf in this video, he smiles, looks on like he loves wolves and says “Wow!!!” Then he heads back to the city…meanwhile he just released five wolves into my backyard. Literally, my backyard.
A historic day for Colorado and for the first time ever — we released 5 wolves, 3 males and 2 females, in Grand County today.
Captured in Oregon, the wolves were evaluated by our veterinarians & biologists, fitted with GPS collars & transported to Colorado for their release.
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If electric vehicles are so darn good, no legislation banning all the competition would ever be needed. These laws forcing electric vehicles on people, are totalitarian.
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Japan just cut the corporate tax rate to 20% - with some convoluted ties to companies raising wages. But, the point is, it’s happening again. When Reagan cut tax rates, other countries followed. Led to a global boom.
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I know
#Coronavirus
is spreading outside of China, but total active cases are still falling. Active cases are the only ones that can spread the virus. Today 43,293 vs 44,314 yesterday. The press keeps reporting total cases, and deaths, but not recoveries.
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Classic government. We messed up and created inflation with really dumb government policies, so we are going to fix this problem with even more government policies. Let’s create new policies to “help” people overcome problems cause by previous policies. What could go wrong?
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Does anyone out there realize that the only reason you have cell phones, automobiles, ovens, electricity, lightbulbs, air conditioning, heating, and a million other things is that the free market brought them to you and competition brought their prices down?
Today, the
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NYT’s, WaPo, MSNBC, CNN, all of you…condemn this. Tell your readers and your viewers that you have overstated the case. Tell them you were gaslighting them. Tell them they are brainwashed…
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If Bernie Sanders proposes to forgive all student loans, I propose that Universities and professors who received the money should be the ones who pay it back.
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Desiring personal freedom is not political. Desiring power over others is political.
For those who desire power over others, to call those who desire personal freedom “political,” is demented, and political.
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It’s pretty clear that a “State of Emergency” in Ukraine…has allowed the Executive and Legislative branches of the US government to work quickly and efficiently and together to spend over $100 billion. The COVID spending spree showed the same ability to work together in “an
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Some observations about all the insanity in politics right now.
1) It used to be after you were President you got rich giving speeches and running foundations. Now you get sued into oblivion.
2) Biden’s choices are limited…if he runs and loses to Trump he opens up his flank
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INFLATION is a decline in the purchasing power of money. It is cause by money printing. The Federal Reserve has engineered a 38% increase in the M2 measure of money since February 2020. If you print more dollars, each dollar becomes worth less. It’s not that hard to understand.
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