Alex Gurevich
@agurevich23
Followers
45,583
Following
415
Media
110
Statuses
7,746
CIO, HonTe Investments. Ran global macro at JPM. The Wall Street Journal Bestselling author of The Trades of March 2020.
San Francisco
Joined July 2013
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#Paris2024
• 916024 Tweets
#OpeningCeremony
• 232941 Tweets
#ceremoniedouverture
• 173909 Tweets
Lady Gaga
• 127762 Tweets
#CerimoniaDeAbertura
• 116913 Tweets
フランス
• 110886 Tweets
The French
• 98407 Tweets
Seine
• 87828 Tweets
Aya Nakamura
• 85227 Tweets
Sena
• 73757 Tweets
Snoop
• 72210 Tweets
França
• 68697 Tweets
Louis Vuitton
• 38805 Tweets
Rio 2016
• 38411 Tweets
Gojira
• 36851 Tweets
Garde Républicaine
• 36271 Tweets
Les Mis
• 35804 Tweets
Minions
• 33089 Tweets
Zidane
• 27610 Tweets
Vive la France
• 19743 Tweets
セーヌ川
• 15616 Tweets
Maria Antonieta
• 15407 Tweets
ミニオン
• 14544 Tweets
Assassin's Creed
• 13980 Tweets
Notre Dame
• 13561 Tweets
London 2012
• 10681 Tweets
Hays
• 10438 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Every cycle end the Fed policy progresses in the same fashion:
1. We are overheating: hike!
2. Stocks aren’t the economy, stay the course.
3. Stocks Are the economy. We’re watching the market closely.
4. Numbers are mixed: pause and resume.
5. Just one cut.
6. Low for longer.
86
200
863
Jamie, you're a great boss and the GOAT bank CEO. You're not a trader or tech entrepreneur. Please, STFU about trading $BTC.
188
2K
3K
I’ve seen three asset bubbles:
Internet - 1999
Mortgage - 2007
Short vol - 2017
Followed by three cash bubbles:
Summer 2002
March 2009
March 2020
All asset bubbles were burst by the fed tightening, and all cash bubbles were burst by easing.
It’s that simple. What do you expect?
78
524
3K
I think it the time for all of us to step back and acknowledge that the inverted yield curve last year DID predict a recession. How it managed to do so I have no idea.
98
231
2K
After a long period of only writing for my investors, I am making this letter publicly available. It summarizes my current reasoning on growth and inflation. If you read one of my pieces this year, it should be this. Appreciate re-posting and engagement.
69
343
1K
Repeat after me:
Gold hedges inflationary shocks like wars
Gold doesn’t hedge deflationary shocks like epidemics
116
203
1K
So $FB gaps down $80 on a bad earnings report. And then proceeds to to trade the whole day in $10 range. How did the market decide so quickly and so certainly what the new price should be? Fascinating!
108
52
1K
Fed: We're hiking and reducing balance sheet on autopilot.
Market: You're easing in a year.
Fed: We're pausing, but still expecting 2 hikes this year.
Market: You're easing 2 times this year.
Fed: We're on hold, evaluating data.
Market: Is it 25 or 50 bps cut at the next meeting?
29
255
1K
If cutting rates didn't solve the problem of low inflation, will raising rates solve the problem of high inflation?
119
89
983
Ok. Next question: which hedge fund is going out of business today?
70
97
891
It appears to me that $BTC has established a very solid bottom. If it clears $10,000 now it should have an easy path to $50,000 this year.
26
192
751
This stock market couldn’t be brought down by impeachment, war, or pandemic.
What is left there to be afraid of?
285
88
730
As far as the market is concerned,
“we are making progress on a vaccine” is the 2020 version of “we are making progress on the trade deal.”
18
86
640
Warren Buffet donated $37bln to charity and everyone is making fun of him for being surpassed in wealth by younger entrepreneurs.
That’ll teach him!
25
57
632
I am befuddled by people pointing at higher than expected inflation prints as an evidence that the inflation is not transitory. “Transitory” is a statement about the persistence of inflation in time, not about its magnitude.
78
59
618
Q: Why do you expect more interest rate cuts?
A: Because a recession is coming.
Q: Why do you think a recession is coming?
A: Because the yield curve is inverted.
Q: Why is the yield curve inverted?
A: Because more interest rate cuts are projected.
27
121
479
I feel like I am living and trading through a pernicious hybrid of GFC, 9/11, and Chernobyl.
10
46
465
IMHO signs of a bubble are:
1. Low vol, one-directional market
2. Perception of no competition
3. Broad positive sentiment
4. Consensus of “accredited” analysts
5. Universal involvement of asset managers
$BTC has no NONE of those.
26
155
408
Economy is reopening.
Stimulus is coming.
Core inflation is not going anywhere.
Fed is not tightening.
Go home, kids.
15
28
393
1. I have wanted to do a thread on inflation and policy for a while. I kept silent for a while, because I have made a career of caring about what the Fed will do, as opposed to what they should do. On both accounts, I have been genuinely uncertain.
15
60
346
Here's something I don't get about today. Why, amidst a stock market rout, is Swiss Franc the worst performing currency?
115
18
336
For inflation to be considered transitory, this year’s price gains don’t have to be unwound, all they to do is to decelerate.
Thus, the current inflation spike actually increases the probability of rates being on hold for a long time.
23
41
343
Corollary:
You have never lived till you bought Argentinian debt.
12
89
309
As the developed world is inexorably moving towards perpetually negative nominal rates, the demand for nearly costless digital value storage should increase.
$BTC
9
60
277
Why do some hate the Fed so much? Far from perfect, but we went through unprecedented economic slowdown. And they managed to restore liquidity and confidence to the financial system.
Most importantly, the inflation expectations neither collapsed nor skyrocketed in the process.
135
32
274
I will make a rare political statement:
While there is a legitimate debate about ultimate priorities for central banks - the well-being of macro hedge funds ( including my own) SHOULD NOT be one of them.
Central bankers' communications failures are not only blowing up hedge funds but posing real risks to the real economy, writes
@ScouseView
(via
@bopinion
)
1
11
12
12
30
271
I hate “I told you so”s, but I told you so. How many times do I have to repeat: the beginning of the an easing cycle is historically bullish for the dollar.
23
49
256
I have a question: which outcome exactly would have caused stocks to go down?
71
22
258
In 2021 and 2022 we learned the consequences of expanding monetary policy during the period of rising inflation.
In 2023 and 2024 we will learn the consequences of contracting monetary policy during the period of falling inflation.
25
41
254
Every post-crisis rate cycle:
1. We’ll never recover, rates are low forever.
2. We’re recovering! Inflation! Hikes coming! Sell bonds!
3. No inflation. Bumps on the road. Rates will be low forever!
4. Hikes. But only or two! Buy bonds!
5. More hikes! Sell bonds!
6. Recession.
14
52
252
Shorting stocks or treasury bonds is like repeatedly hitting your own knee with a hammer and celebrating every time you miss.
14
32
238
Similar questions were asked about JGBs 20 years ago. And then about Bunds 5 years ago...
Struggling to see who is going to line up to buy $3 trillion of bonds with tens at 0.66%
Somebody should be nervous about this
37
7
114
19
26
233
People, who are saying the Fed should keep hiking because of the level of inflation, are like people, who are riding down a mountain on a steep icy road and screaming at the driver:
“Push the accelerator! We are still too high!”
28
27
236
I am officially calling the regime change to the late cycle pattern.
This is what I wrote in my book in 2014:
16
45
221
1. US stocks have to go up.
2. Global interest rates are going lower.
3. If US rates go higher, $ will go higher due to widening differential.
4. If $ goes higher, stocks will weaken, which is impossible due to 1.
5. Hence, US rates have to go lower.
QED
34
53
228
Last rate hike in a cycle is much like the last kiss in a relationship: you rarely think it is going to be the last one, while it is actually happening.
7
41
219
We are solidly in phase 2 now. The transition to phase 3 is not far ahead.
Every cycle end the Fed policy progresses in the same fashion:
1. We are overheating: hike!
2. Stocks aren’t the economy, stay the course.
3. Stocks Are the economy. We’re watching the market closely.
4. Numbers are mixed: pause and resume.
5. Just one cut.
6. Low for longer.
86
200
863
64
37
223
The two greatest problems in modern China are:
- Massive youth unemployment
- Catastrophic decline in youth population
Tao me this!
29
26
215
My new post on the impact of secular shift to negative rates:
19
52
214
So much good news for the markets these days! The border security deal has been reached at least twelve times. And already over twenty China trade accords made!
12
26
215
Lower CPI is only good news for the economy and the stock market only in as much as it causes the Fed to cut rates faster. If the rates stay here it means relatively higher real interest rates and thus more implicit tightening.
23
39
215
I have many concerns about investing in crypto currencies. But introduction of $BTC futures is Absolutely not one of them. Your investment thesis is pretty weak if it hinges on ppl having no means to short your asset.
19
38
202
Since $TSLA became a real car company, it’s been trading like a real car company.
9
34
204
2017 in summary:
I tweet about ED futures which I have traded for 20 years - 2 retweets.
I tweet a snark wrt $BTC, where I have no expertise - 2000 retweets.
Happy New Year!
4
20
200
Me: what’s your view on gold?
You: I think it will be under pressure this year
Me: where do you think it’ll be in 5 years?
You: oh, in 5 years it could be as high as 3,000
Me: so what’s your position?
You: I am tactically short
Me: <eyes glaze over>
16
20
204
CATASTROPHIC INFLATION IS HERE!
Last time YoY CPI print was this high in <checks charts>
6/30/2008
13
17
200
Notice when we have a risk-on wave and stocks hit ATH, bonds do pull back, but each time to higher support relative to stock levels. When there is a slightest trouble or even sideways action - bonds surge. Until this changes:
#TheOneTrade
8
31
201
1. The logic of the Fed ( and the market! ) still continues to elude me. Mind you, I am not arguing transitory vs. non-transitory. I am not even arguing whether the Fed should be more dovish or more hawkish.
40
40
200
Was the bond rally in the spring of 2020 extraordinary? Was the sell-off in winter of 2021 extraordinary? Are you surprised that bonds rebounded this summer? Did the secular trend undergo a major change?
#TheOneTrade
#TheOneChart
7
44
192
1. I am about to start an angry tweet-storm in DEFENSE of Central Banks. So buckle up.
@DiMartinoBooth
@EpsilonTheory
@TheBubbleBubble
@RudyHavenstein
I respect you all anyway.
43
40
186
Take rates to ZERO, where they belong.
Stop pretending it can be otherwise.
41
14
191
There is no hope of the Fed magically becoming dovish on their own. The data has to change first.
Which it will.
At some point.
22
14
190
#bitcoin
is doing well after the fork, because it now has a positive yield:
Each future fork = dividend $btcusd
15
51
175
I suspect that other banks did hedge their interest rate exposure. At the worst possible point. Now they are getting no benefit from the UST’s rally, while they are losing cheap funding through deposits. What a hellscape!
18
20
185
Aragorn, son of Arathorn, withdrew from royal duties and forwent any claim to the Throne of Gondor for several decades.
So Harry & Meghan pretty much seceded from the British Royal Family. I wonder about historical precedents - has this happened before?
57
5
61
7
15
181
First $GME tortured the shorts. Then it tortured the longs. Now it tortures people who bought vol.
9
10
172
All economic data released in March 2023 pertains to the conditions pre-banking crisis and may prove to be as irrelevant as the data released in March 2020.
8
24
175
I know this beautiful feeling. When at last the long slog is over and the forces of the market are aligned exactly as you anticipated. You are like a surfer who at last has caught a perfect wave.
This feeling is usually a precursor to a massive protracted loss.
11
7
175
Most fun for a trader is discovering a new trade. Once it's on, waiting for a pay-off is like for an artist waiting for the paint to dry.
10
45
169
Poker players generally talk only about losing hands, while managers only about winning trades.
Could it be because
- poker players are incentivized to appear worse than they actually are
- money managers are incentivized to appear better than they are?
8
16
170
Very low unemployment has been a reliable indicator that the business cycle is about to turn down. Add stock market jitters and flattening yield curve. Beginning to look like late 2018. Could economic and rate cycle turn out to be this short?
12
18
172
In the good old days the economy was either weak or strong and everyone agreed on it. Nowadays it is simultaneously overheating and collapsing depending on whom you ask.
13
18
170
1. Today, For no particular reason, I feel like doing a tweet storm about short-selling. Good thing I am the only one doing that.
8
17
167
For the last few weeks we have been experiencing a risk-off environment in every aspect of financial markets, except risky assets.
8
21
159
There’s something for everybody in the US economic data. I’ve sympathy for those confused why there’s such a hellbent certainty of multiple eases priced in. IMO, the dollar is the answer. If the Fed doesn’t ease policy dramatically, a catastrophic $ rally can’t be averted.
16
34
156
Every early post-crisis recovery market at some point prices an imminent hiking ("normalization") of interest rates.
I am not saying the market will be wrong this time.
All I am saying - the market has been wrong about this every single time in the past.
15
28
158
Pandemic will pass. Liquidity will stay.
12
20
157
I don't post puppy pictures; you're here for my content. Enjoy my book!
I rarely ask for anything, but today I have three specific asks:
1. Buy the paperback now
2. Retweet and re-post this message
3. Review on Amazon ASAP
Thank you for your support!
25
38
154
The book is out!
The paperback looks amazing! The cover, the graphics, the colors, the snapshots of market chatter - I couldn't be more pleased!
21
13
150
Both bulls and bears got slaughtered this year. The time of hogs is upon us!
9
10
143
Why do people talk of positive real interest rates as an unalienable human right?
58
17
142
inflation is high
things cost more
people buy less
retail sales are worse
Where is my Nobel Price?
12
3
142
The only thing more dangerous for a macro trader than to be ignorant of politics is to be an amateur political analyst.
7
50
136
Fixed supply is the argument for gold or
#BTC
vs. stocks as a store of value. But share supply has been curbed by buybacks. The 1999-2000 bubble was arbitraged away by a flood of IPOs.
Corollary: this stock rally may not stop till we see supply: massive IPOs or secondaries.
17
17
139
Too early to say, but we may be experiencing a regime change. A few month ago:
Weak ISM = Lower rater = Higher stocks
8
24
142
This ends in deflation.
No matter how bearish you are, keep one thing in mind: This doesn’t end in deflation. I’m bearish. It looks nasty out there and I think most are greatly understating the risks. That being said, any big pullback is a buying opp. They will print. They will change rules. They will
36
12
170
21
11
142
Last few days’ blow-out rally and today’s reversal in USTs reminds me of flash bond rally in October 2014. Tactically it was a great moment to take profits, but over the longer horizon the rally (about as old as the current one is now) was only beginning. $TLT
4
19
141
Can we just have
#BTC
please? No particular reason, but trying to understand all these forks is making my head want to explode.
23
18
129
$CHF
WHAT KIND OF “CURRENCY” JUMPS 33% OVERNIGHT 🤣🤣🤣🤣 $XRP
5
0
11
5
10
135
The pandemic in itself was a deflationary shock, followed by an extreme policy response, which was an inflationary shock. As the policy impact will wear off, so will the inflation impulse. Courtesy of
#TeamTransitory
17
12
138
Introducing a new preferred measure of inflation:
Core PCE Ex-Tariffs.
8
15
131
I am probably the most bullish person on Treasuries around here, but I am still cautious of being over-excited about JOLTs. It’s been volatile with a lot of upside surprises. We have to be patient in terms of the timelines for the job market collapse. ( collapse it will!)
13
19
133
$FRC has to sell about 100bln of assets. Someone will buy them. That's 100bln of new loans that someone will not extend.
20
19
132
Since the USA became the world largest oil producer only recently, I think it is underestimated how much US interest rates are now correlated to
#oil
prices.
10
20
126
Pandemic? Large-scale war in Europe? Energy Crisis? Global Food Crisis?
No.
It’s Silicon Valley Bank’s poor trading of bonds that’ll bring us all down.
6
13
126
Business cycle is like a banquet:
When they start serving desert, your know the party is almost over.
12
35
121
The surprise keeps coming from the direction of not how strong or how weak, but how mixed the economic data is.
17
14
124
Wait for Buffett to break down and buy into the market to pinpoint the actual top?
Buffett is sitting on $128B, raising questions on market valuation “Prices are sky-high for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects.” I’m sure he’s being overly cautious.
69
94
327
21
17
120