Not Every Michael Every
@TheMichaelEvery
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“Ursine Qua Non”, allegedly. Global strategist, definitely. London, Bratislava, Moscow, Sydney, Bangkok, Hong Kong, Haifa, Singapore,… Luton, unavoidably.
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@Sorenthek
@SantiagoAuFund
Perhaps. But don’t believe the hype from anyone about anything.
I can see what they want to do, and how they hope to do it.
And how many tombstones are likely to be involved, one way or another…
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As always, a real pleasure to talk the big picture with
@menlobear
at Thoughtful Money, even if the global backdrop we were discussing isn’t so pleasant.
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Here we go; liberal order crumbling, so let’s unilaterally shift maritime borders to suit ourselves. Where/when/who next?
❗️Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. This follows from the draft government resolution published on the portal of legal acts of the Russian Federation.
According to the document
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@SantiagoAuFund
Future FX exchange booths will be refrigerated, and hold both notes and cuts of meat.
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Me: I’m shocked, shocked to find another predicted change in the economy, which *will* impact markets, is being led by national security concerns.
Croupier: Here’d your winnings, Sir.
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More and more chatter of tectonic shifts in global architecture, and in very different directions. What gives? And when does it give?
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Today’s Global Daily on the 🇫🇷 election, following the 🇬🇧 and 🇺🇸 developments: Far Left, Far Right, Far Out.
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🎯
The economist Nicholas Kaldor describing the American trade and payments system under the post-Bretton Woods dollar arrangement. This quote is from 1971! 🔮
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I long said inevitable endgame = nationalisation.
Where does the CNY come from? State banks. Who saves developers who fail? The state. What happens to empty homes? Social housing.
China gets cheap housing to focus on production. Like it or not, it’s a plan.
So, what’s ours?
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If this kind of story doesn’t underline the need for some serious self-reflection in the West, and the recognition that **even rate cuts are not the answer to our problems**, then I don’t know what does.
Then again, even war didn’t for many, it seems.
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Not King Kong vs. Godzilla, but:
@BobMurphyEcon
@JamesGRickards
@SantiagoAuFund
@TheMichaelEvery
talking King Dollar, games of thrones, the great game of global trade, and war games: all under the expert guidance of
@menlobear
February 13, 7pm EST
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@BobMurphyEcon
@JamesGRickards
@SantiagoAuFund
@menlobear
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV: COMMON BRICS CURRENCY HAS NO PROSPECTS NOW - TASS.
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This hasn’t happened & may never happen. But hypothetically, isn’t it how Fed might work with White House to adopt hybrid mix of high & low rates and tight & loose fiscal policy for (geo)political supply-side goals, eg “Pentagon QE”? ECB already alluded to same concept in 2023.
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From today’s Global Daily:
Druckenmiller gives Biden, Trump, and Powell an F. Yet realpolitik and voters give an F to Druckenmiller’s preferred “The 1980s called, they want their economic policy back”.
Stagflationary; inflationary; or delusionary. Those seem to be our choices.
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From today’s Global Daily: Protectionists Add Vance
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From today’s Global Daily: ‘Keep on rocketing the free world’
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And many people in markets had difficulty conceiving of a 10% tariff until recently.
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Meanwhile, some in China want a ‘green Marshall plan’ to help others absorb Chinese excess capacity. And we know what the first one did for US global influence and power.
The West is still “So when do we get rate cuts?”
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@SantiagoAuFund
@T_Castelluccio
But let’s go one better.
Imagine low U.S. rates AND a strong $; and low rates allow for industrial policy subsidies that make U.S. goods more competitive on world markets, making Euro$ squeeze even worse.
OK, that’s projecting a LOT of dots; but I’m sure some see the picture.
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From today’s Global Daily: “I’ve got a bad feeling about this”:
A recap of worrying headlines
Former USTR Lightsaber could slice the global system apart
Post-literate futuristic societies?
“May the Market Forces be with you” stonks traders - again
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It begins (as I had expected)….
Where does it end?
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This could be a game-changer, even for Europe. As flagged before and just after Russia invaded Ukraine, sanctions would eventually have to widen to the extent they started bifurcating the world - or prove toothless. After repeated warnings, we might soon see which.
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Many wrong takes on 🇮🇷 attack on 🇮🇱.
Not WW3: no surprise, little damage. But not “performative”: 🇮🇷 NEVER hit 🇮🇱 before.
🔑 factor = 🇮🇱 response.
🇺🇸 may try to stop 🇮🇱 retaliation: but if so, 🇮🇷 ‘daring winner’ & worse to come ahead.
No play-acting here. Deadly serious.
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From today’s Global Daily:
We can’t be confident inflation will fall - next, US CPI;
But we can be confident geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions will rise - because Smith, Ricardo, and history show us it’s the case.
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As someone who has been flagging a global shift back to protectionism, mercantilism, industrial policy, markets forced to serve national security goals first, could you get a clearer signal than this?
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Excellent article as usual from Michael Pettis.
To paraphrase Trotsky, “You may not be interested in industrial policy, but industrial policy may be interested in you.”
In my latest piece I argue that Americans cannot choose whether or not the US economy should be subject to trade and industrial policies, but must instead choose whether these trade and industrial policies are to be designed at home or abroad.
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🎯 The irony is many admit the neoliberal system isn’t working, but when you propose doing anything that changes it, they say it won’t work, and we need more neoliberalism! Reminds me of a few other “isms” in that regard; & it’s why new ideology will emerge, as flagged in 2020.
So imo anyone who offers a simple "magic of the markets"/ "tariffs never work"/ "industrial policy never works" story should start from a big disadvantage, because China's EV story is a story of a successful industrial strategy/ policy.
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Gives a whole new meaning to “where’s the beef?”
I’ve long warned some might have to do the inverse: sell commodities to China and get equal value of Chinese products back, and then have to open new business line selling them on to generate $.
There are reports circulating on 🇨🇳 media / social media that Huawei is now the largest importer of beef in China as the company had to accept beef as payment in lieu of cash from Argentina for 5G equipment purchased by the South American country… Huawei has been selling beef
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Today’s Global Daily: Silly Billy Elegy
A weekend of major political drama continues into this week, in both the U.S., EU, and China - and the major market implications still aren’t being fully recognised.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
Tolkien / Cold War 2
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Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
I have no idea why this is not getting mainstream media coverage but the Russians on Kremlin State TV yesterday declared that Mexico was their military ally and they are wanting to place their missiles on Mexican territory so Mexico can attack the United States. This is insane.
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@mercoglianos
@johnkonrad
We are still in Deep Ship!
I note the industry claim there isn’t carrier overcapacity because it’s new “green” ships (meaning old ones might be scrapped?)
Once again, markets are failing to understand physical supply chains.
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So from 27.5% to 102.5% to 200%.
And yet some in markets think they can model this systemic breakdown, that we get inflation back down to 2% smoothly and easily, and that the global policy and financial and economic architecture can’t change much.
"100% tariffs? Those are rookie tariffs. Try *200%* tariffs! How about that?"
This election and the next admin are going to be wild.
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And the suggested “painkiller, not remedy” response is ECB rate cuts & a weaker 💶!
Sorry, that’s just not going to cut it. Whisper it,….but **it’s not always about rate cuts!**
Structural policy changes are needed, as we’ve described.
Failing that, things would look grim.
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In the future, FX exchange booths will have to be refrigerated and hold both notes and cuts of meat.
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In 2016’s ‘Thin Ice’ report, I argued that the liberal order was a mile wide but the ice holding it was an inch deep. And it would break.
Yes, being too early in markets is as bad as being too late. But still being blind to this reality today is inexcusable for real businesses.
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🎯 as we see now in the Red, and perhaps soon the Med, Sea.
This is why Europeans fail to understand geopolitics. They think the ability to trade across oceans relies on international law. In reality, it relies on American seapower.
International law is a farce & always has been. It rests on the credible promise of force, nothing more.
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Was waiting for someone other than myself to snigger at the ‘petrodollar’ news: and no one better than this.
Saudi is still pegged to the $. It might net out some bilateral trade **priced in $**, which matters at the margin, but that’s hardly what some were flagging as imminent.
I challenge anyone to show a hard proof of a 50-year agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia regarding the use of the US dollar in oil pricing on June 6, 1974!
If there is no agreement, there is NOTHING to expire! End of story!
@MarioNawfal
#Oil
#SaudiArabia
#US
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1/ From today’s Global Daily, ‘Damascene Conversion’, which shares the ‘I was wrong on everything substantive for 50 years’ thoughts of a US Emeritus Professor of Economics at Princeton…
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She warns of policy divergence, protectionism & mercantilism, and attempted tectonic shifts in global FX & payment systems. One word sums that up: “1930s”. Or “1971”.
We aren’t in either yet: but if global architecture crumbles, market shifts will be larger than many foresee.
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From today’s Global Daily, “The Wrath of Khan”, looking at the larger structural issues relating to the ICC’s request for arrest warrants against the Israeli PM and Defence Minister, as well as leaders of Hamas.
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As warned after 7/10 and underlined immediately the Houthis started attaxking shipping:
“Fears are rising ocean freight rates may surpass $20,000 with no relief for global trade into 2025”.
Some inflation indicators might be ⬇️ but this says ⬆️
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Having finally set sail from LinkedIn to X, here is some recent research on the Red Sea crisis and why the market is not seeing how important it really is. “Same Deep Ship, Different Day”
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“When we’re no longer able to manufacture the high-tech components for new fighter jets or submarines, who is going to make them for us? Russia? China?”
On the other hand, overpriced housing and maybe rate cuts! 🤦♂️
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Reports of explosions in Iran, and strikes on IRGC in Syria and Iraq. This doesn’t look like the “theatre” some were calling recent events.
Oil and gold up, though not enormously, as we wait to see what’s going on.
Recall 🇮🇷 threatened massive retaliation to any 🇮🇱 attacks.
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With the headlines today of “Trumpy as charged”, there are key implications in geopolitics as well as U.S. politics - as noted in yesterday’s Global Daily.
If you were a declining hegemon, already beset by newly-confident rivals working in tandem, you would wish to create an outward show of political stability in the service of imperial survival. This is not what we’re getting, and clients should adjust risk exposure accordingly.
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As
@tyillc
puts it so well, if your government does let help pick local winners and losers, other governments will do it for you.
That’s also an extension of Trotsky: “You may not be interested in mercantilism, but mercantilism may be interested in you.”
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1/ From today’s Global Daily - ‘Lemonade or Kool-Aid’
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@aeberman12
So let��s cut rates and watch everyone buy energy guzzling crypto and frivolous nonsense instead. Because we know they won’t invest productively with low rates: 2009-20 proved it conclusively.
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We are truly ‘In Deep Ship’, it seems.
How did the Houthis get these weapons? (Do we need to ask? We know who sells them.)
Ironically, just today the FT is running an op-ed saying all is well on the Suez front, even as diesel was already using higher anyway as a result.
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Here is a key e.g. of potential upstream trade commodity financing FX shifts; COMECON-style barter; and what the IMF warned this week - bifurcated global commodity trade with limited/no interoperability.
Yes, hard to achieve. World-changing if done. 👀
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In short, it’s time to stop looking just at BBG screens and at economic history; and at *political* economic history!
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A few of my thoughts on geopolitics and markets on CNBC this morning.
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The global architecture continues to shift dramatically:
Is 🇦🇷 a pivot point for geopolitics (now firmly pro- 🇺🇸, NATO, 🇺🇦, & 🇮🇱) and organising ideology (“anarcho-capitalism”)?
👀
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This is news? In 2017, ‘The Great Game of Global Trade’ said protectionism would return globally, & ‘On Your Marx’ predicted Cold War 2. The likely ‘sides’ were as clear then as now, as was the EU’s awkward geostrategic position. How this is resolved is what we need to focus on.
The Economist: "This is an age of political turmoil, economic angst and rising barriers to trade. In Beijing and Washington leaders see opportunities to blame rivals in the other capital for making the chaos worse."
@DSORennie
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“The era when Europe bought its energy and fertilizers from Russia, had production in China, and entrusted its security to the US is over,” Macron just said. “The rules of the game have changed.”
💯 But some are still playing tic-tac-toe while others are playing 3D chess….
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“Of mice and men”
EU-origin ESG-friendly military equipment sent to Ukraine proves a hit with mice, who like to eat the corn-, not synthetic-based, cabling.
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If Iran can do it, why not Russia? If the Houthis can do it, why not others in East/West Africa, where shipping is now rerouted? The potential for supply chain disruption is there, at low cost to Russia & very high cost to global trade/the West. This is how economic war works.
Russian mil expert Y. Podolyaka says Kremlin might consider arming Houthis with advanced anti-ship missiles in order to destroy American destroyers by proxy. Channel1-Rus, 23 May. It's really not hard to find such "horizonatal escalation" possibilities for Russia.
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Concerning & sadly realistic; & the West has no way, or will, to respond in kind or escalate, based on what we’ve seen so far, so it’s a “free option” for Russia.
It’s also inflationary, if it works for Russia, or if the West has to maximise security to prevent it happening.
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From today’s Global Daily: L’Age d’Or (Subtitle: “Large Door”)
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Have we won the war against inflation “at very little cost” again?
So much winning! 🤦♂️
Remember all those 2022 predictions that getting inflation down would require years of very high unemployment? Here’s where we are now (using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for May)
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Ouch! And spot on.
"Britain... staked its future on trade at the exact historical moment that it fell out of favour as an idea. It is the geostrategic equivalent of investing one’s life savings in a DVD manufacturer circa 2009."
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As predicted, the Houthis want to share (Iranian) weapons. First, Somalia. Eventually, West Africa?
If so, going round Africa could become risky, like Suez. Which leaves what option for shipping?
Geopolitical inflation is not going away.
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From today’s Global Daily: Pure Shakespeare
Plus, what would Musk and Trump working together look like? Orange Cybertrucks? CyberTrump? Camp Trump on Mars?
👀
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At some point, markets will have to actually think what this —means for them— and, shock horror!, provide forecasts on that basis. Even just as a tail risk.
But not yet: because there are beans to count and rate cuts to trade. And those obviously take precedence.
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But nothing we did prior to neoliberalism worked. We were pre-literate & lived in shanty towns or Mad Max deserts in insecurity, looking for gasoline or water.
Hang on…. Isn’t that today? If only economists knew any economic history and theory pre-1985.
RBA clueless as to how monetary policy works.
In 1985 Paul Keating lifted government capital controls. This meant that private banks were no longer restricted as to how much money they could borrow from offshore banks and what they used it for.
The private banks had $8
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Egypt pound collapsing after a free float. Another BRICS+ FX under pressure. Houthis obviously haven’t helped at all. Food and energy now much costlier for over 100 million people.
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India Jones Act and The Last Crusade (For Free Trade)
Watch this space; and these waterways.
#InDeepShip
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Today’s Global Daily has analysis of the eventual market impact of the US decision not to send weapons to Israel, which builds pressure on already buckling geopolitical tectonic plates; and on a related note…
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From the Global Daily: ECB D-Day
Freedom isn’t free. Or just free markets.
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Underlining what once was, and markets need to start thinking more seriously about what might have to be again, in some form or another.
“In 1934 🇺🇸 built 2 merchant ships
In 1935 🇺🇸 built 2 merchant ships
In 1940 we built 50
By 1943 we built 1,600
We can ramp up if we want to but we must get more people behind shipbuilding”
@mercoglianos
w/
@Admiral_Foggo
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Also today: Threat of tariffs and export controls for those who try to dedollarise. “Economic advisers to Trump and his campaign have talked about targeting that particular BRICS effort in a potential second term.”
How many more signs of imminent systemic change do we need?
🍿
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Modi hugs Putin; Orban in Moscow; African splits & confederations; 🇯🇵 & 🇵🇭 sign defence pact; Mid East on knife edge; wild election results…
and this all before we get a recession, jump in unemployment, and/or pick up in inflation.
Time to 🙏 for rate cuts! 🤷♂️ 🤷 🤷♀️
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Yes. It’s what I argued was coming in 2017’s ‘The Great Game of Global Trade’: a move to a combination of Risk & Tetris where trade shits to ideological / national security blocs.
To have assumed otherwise was to have gargled too much neoliberal bong water and not read history.
1. Geopolitical competition with China makes protectionism necessary
2. Protectionism is economically costly and bad.
1 + 2 = we need freer trade with friendly countries for a stronger economy and a stronger alliance system.
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Worse, there is no resolution in sight. The Houthis are getting bolder, and sharing weapons and techniques with others. Operation Prosperity Guardian has guarded little and prospered not at all. And the Middle East is still a powder keg: Israel-Hezbollah war could start any time.
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They didn’t quote the next line where I said the opposite was true in many other places.
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MICHIGAN PRELIM. MAY CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO 67.4; EST 76.2
MICHIGAN YEAR-AHEAD INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE TO 3.5% VS 3.2%
“When they go stag, we go flation.”
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Macron appears to be going all in on appearing to be going all in. Geopolitics isn’t a punching bag, however. Big picture still 🤜🏻 🇪🇺 🥊
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Europe one again out of loop: Philippines and Indonesia are the real nickel games in town, and both want to own the value added of processing.
The U.S. is seen as protecting the Philippines from China > it gets the nickel.
Europe isn’t doing anything > no nickel for you.
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I’ve made this point for a while.
This is now about how to “reguide” amoral capital to do something beneficial beyond “profits”.
That MUST mean tariffs; and it MUST mean tight AND loose fiscal AND monetary policy at once domestically.
Thats your “reguide”.
Watch this space.
Last night’s speech was very revealing about the current differences between Republicans and Democrats. J.D. Vance’s speech was extremely populist. This is the culmination of major changes in the parties that have evolved over the last 20 years.
Democrats used to be
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From today’s Global Daily, a cartoon version of ‘strategic autonomy’.
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@SantiagoAuFund
Davila: "All epochs exhibit the same vices, but not all show the same virtues. In every age there are hovels, but only in some are there palaces."
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Ukraine Sees Risk of Russia Breaking Through Defenses by Summer
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Supply supply supply mercantilism Hamiltonianism
US, PHILIPPINES TO COLLABORATE IN REDUCING CHINA'S DOMINANCE IN NICKEL INDUSTRY: SOURCE
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As warned, one doesn’t play around with trade war if trying to shift entrenched comparative advantage built up by decades of mercantilism. One plays to win - with massive tariffs - or one loses the industry; and strategic autonomy; and then macro stability.
So which is it to be?
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Meanwhile, 🇺🇸 moves to broader, deeper protectionism. As flagged as likely as far back as 2016.
🌎 🔥
BIDEN TO ANNOUNCE DECISION ON CHINA TARIFFS NEXT WEEK, PLACING DUTIES ON STRATEGIC CATEGORIES -SOURCE
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Who had “Lithuania attacks Belarus with drones” on their geopolitics bingo 4 today?
“I had ‘rate cuts.’”
Seriously: tensions are worryingly high on multiple fronts, in multiple dimensions. Sociopolitical; geopolitical; geoeconomic; financial; environmental.
🪤
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Which was obvious when Macron floated the idea while saying he will do “everything” to stop Russia; so now Macron backs off, or we “escalate to deescalate”, or just escalate. Is game theory really that hard for some to grasp? Apparently so.
Surely Europe backs off, muttering(?)
BREAKING:
Russia will go to war with NATO if its troops are deployed in Ukraine, says the Kremlin
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From today’s Global Daily: Planes, Grains, & Automobiles - and ‘Coinz’
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