Art Berman
@aeberman12
Followers
41,455
Following
199
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44,410
I am a geologist and writer, and mainly do petroleum-related work.
Houston, Texas
Joined March 2009
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
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Pinned Tweet
I'm no longer going to waste my time arguing with people about whether climate change and ecocide are real.
If you want to ignore data & scientists who know far more than you or I can ever know, that's your choice.
Act out your infantile fantasies somewhere else.
#energy
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"There are not enough minerals in currently reported global reserves to build just one generation of batteries for all EV’s & stationary power storage."
--Simon Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland
#Commodities
#ClimateActionNow
#renewables
#electricity
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“ESG is a scam.”
“BlackRock charges five times as much for juggling a few names & slapping ESG on the name.”
#fintwit
#OOTT
#Commodities
#economy
#inflation
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"I’m afraid we’re going to have a food crisis...To produce a ton of ammonia last summer was $110. And now it's $1,000. So it's just incredible."
--Svein Tore Holsether, Yara CEO
#supplychaincrisis
#EnergyCrisis
#OOTT
#fintwit
#Commodities
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World population has more than tripled since 1950
Energy consumption has increased at more than twice that rate (6.4x)
This fact is absent from discussions of climate change & continued economic growth
#OOTT
#fintwit
#energy
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
#renewableenergy
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"Coal is telling the market something is wrong. The demand for energy is increasing faster than supply. It's starting to smell like 2007."
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#oil
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Energy is the economy.
Germany’s trade surplus has collapsed because of energy.
You can blah blah blah about neoclassical economic flows like capital & labor but the price & availability of energy is not even the elephant in the room.
It is the room!
#Commodities
#economy
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2022 world oil supply-demand deficit is likely to be the largest in history.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Not all sources of electric power are equal.
It takes 2 coal workers, 169 solar workers or 1,100 wind workers to equal 1 natural gas worker for the same electric power flow.
#energytwitter
#ClimateActionNow
#NetZero
#renewables
#energytransition
#Climatechange
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The price of wind is zero when none is produced. Can’t get any more stable.
Unreliability of wind was a chief cause of Europe’s energy crisis so the solution is more of the same?
Being a defender of the Faith will not prevent a Reformation.
Wake up from the infantile dream.
Energy prices are rising globally.
Gas prices almost doubled compared to 2020 and producers are not increasing supplies sufficiently, despite rising demand.
But renewables prices have remained stable.
#EUGreenDeal
and renewables are the solution to rising electricity prices
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I deeply regret the recent friction and conflict with
@ErikSTownsend
. I accept his criticism and apologize for my part in that unfortunate interchange.
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We must not forget Putin’s doctoral dissertation, MINERAL & RAW MATERIALS RESOURCES
& DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY.
He will win the Ukraine war on some limited basis because Europe & indeed the world cannot survive without Russian natural resources.
Full stop.
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A geode cake for an old geologist. Thanks to my wife and daughter!
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Saudi Arabia has chosen not to extend the Petrodollar agreement with the US as of June 9th.
The world will follow suit.
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
On June 9, 2024, Saudi Arabia is expected to announce that it will cease all oil sales in US dollars, marking the end of the 50-year Petrodollar Pact signed on June 6, 1974, which expires on June 9, 2024. This decision is a significant shift in global oil trade dynamics and could
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Oil & Gas is no longer in a growth phase & will decline in long-term value.
Those who complain about “underinvestment” fail to understand this fundamental shift.
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There is no energy transition or green revolution
Fossil fuels accounted for 93% of primary energy consumption in 2022
Wind accounted for 1.5%, solar 0.9%, and nuclear 1.5%
#energy
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
#renewables
#NetZero
#FossilFuels
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There is no energy transition
Energy transitions are additive
No energy source has ever been replaced
Total energy consumption continues to increase
#energy
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
#renewables
#NetZeroBy2050
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U.S. natural gas production base declines at 25% per year.
This is the natural decline rate if no new wells are drilled.
#NaturalGas
#shale
#fintwit
#oilandgas
#Commodities
#ONGT
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#WTI
Let's be clear: storage is NOT full despite what journalists say. Storage space is fully leased. Not the same thing.
This is a contract roll issue that will pass after tomorrow.
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"Europe’s energy crisis today is related to their massive renewable investment...How could renewables possibly have such poor EROEI without anyone realizing it. How could so much renewable investment be made with so little recognition of the problem?"
--Goehring & Rozencwajg
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Let me be very clear:
The world is in a long-term period of oil supply scarcity
The desperately weak global economy is what keeps demand & prices relatively low.
The beginning of the end of economic growth is the real story. The idea of a "soft landing" is delusional.
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Perspective on $30 oil.
When oil was $30 in 2016, comparative inventory was +230 mmb & $30 did not last long. Today, it's -1.5 mmb. Inventories must build greatly to get to $30 on more than sentiment.
OPEC's failure to act in 2014 didn't bring oil to $30 & is unlikely to now.
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"Gasoline prices aren’t high right now because Joe Biden “destroyed American energy dependence.” They’re high mainly because...oil producers...cut back on...investment."
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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U.S. crude oil + condensate production base declines at 39% per year.
This is the natural decline rate if no new wells are drilled.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Putin wants to take down the western financial & credit system. He wrote his PhD thesis on energy. He knows what he's doing.
This is all about Russia, not Saudi Arabia.
SA using same playbook as in Nov 2014--If Russia won't cut, it will abandon role as swing producer.
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US/German decisions to send Abrams/Leopard tanks to Ukraine is b/c their army is near collapse.
My sources say that Ukraine casualties are 8:1 compared to Russia.
You will never hear truth from the western propaganda machine until its unavoidable.
#UkraineWar
#UkraineRussiaWar
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I'm just going to say this.
You get all of me when you follow me.
If you don't like what I say, don't follow me but please, don't lecture me on what I should & shouldn't say.
I don't do it to you because it's none of my business. Please give me the same courtesy.
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Let me be frank
Ted Cruz is an egotistical, sanctimonious, obnoxious opportunist whose job is promoting his presidential ambitions, not serving as a Texas senator.
His behavior is the same as other assholes from both parties who want to be president.
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EVs will have close to ZERO effect on oil demand over the next decade
@Aceditor
Electric vehicles only expected to account for 7% of world light vehicles by 2030 & 12% by 2035.
Can we just get over this infantile fantasy that an energy transition will mean using less oil?
@aeberman12
@bvfin216
The three big questions as far as I can see it are what is OPEC’s sustainable capacity (and for how long), how fast will the shale declines be when they come and what will be the impact of electrification of cars on oil demand.
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There are still many people who refuse to believe that the earth is heating.
That is IGNORANT because it IGNORES the data
We can argue about why it's happening (sort of) or whether solutions are viable (definitely)
BUT heating is VERY real & VERY BAD for human flourishing
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Germany is on energy life support. Putin knew it would come to this.
Russia holds the cards. Germany can’t afford to play or to fold.
The energy house always wins.
#NaturalGas
#shale
#oilandgas
#ONGT
#fintwit
#Commodities
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The "Red Queen Effect"
U.S. oil production declines at about 39% per year
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Coal increased from 11% to 92% of energy use in England & Wales over 300 years.
Fantasies about renewable use increasing a similar amount in 30 years are absurd.
#energytwitter
#ClimateActionNow
#NetZero
#renewables
#energytransition
#Climatechange
#economy
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World oil supply destruction has been 6 mmb/d greater than demand destruction during five price shocks since 1974.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Assumption that "shale" is high-cost producer simply not supported by facts.
SHOCKER: some shale plays low-cost, others high-cost
DOUBLE SHOCKER: most other plays in world are higher-cost (blue=offshore below)
Can analysts & journalists stop making stuff up?
(of course not!)
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People are worrying about oil prices going to $20 or $30.
I worry about how KSA’s decision to recreate 1986 + Coronavirus will stress the global credit system. Recession seems like a soft if likely landing. Hysteria is another outcome.
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27% power from wind + solar, 38% natural gas, & 22% coal before the Texas power crisis.
10% power from wind + solar, 64% natural gas, & 17% coal during the crisis.
#NaturalGas
#shale
#fintwit
#oilandgas
#Commodities
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In her beautiful Fathers Day card, my granddaughter Olive told me I’m “so good at studying rocks.”!
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There's a volumetric problem meeting global diesel demand
The world uses 24% more diesel than gasoline but gasoline accounts for 46% of every barrel refined and diesel accounts for only 20% of every barrel
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Joe Rogan podcast
Almost every lithium battery-powered tech device is powered by slavery in cobalt mines in the Congo.
#energy
#energytwitter
#ClimateActionNow
#NetZero
#renewableenergy
#energytransition
#economy
#inflation
#OOTT
#fintwit
#Commodities
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Jeff Currie does the math
Russia 1.5 mmb/d.
SPR ends 1 mmb/d
China rebound 800 kb/d.
Seasonal uptick 3-4 mmb/d.
Total deficit: -6.5 mmb/d
Saudi + UAE spare capacity +2 mmb/d
We're F**KED!
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Only Permian production is increasing. Other tight oil plays are flat or declining. The problem is capital not geology.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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We talk about the energy needed to power our civilization but less about materials needed.
All materials on left of diagram rely almost exclusively on fossil fuels for extraction, production, distribution & use.
Let that sink in when you talk about getting off of fossil fuels.
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Tight oil estimated to be 69% of U.S. oil production in 2023.
Alaska fading toward zero.
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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"Doomberg has built his thesis of energy abundance on a house of cards.
"All the cards in your energy abundance thesis have collapsed. Let’s talk."
LINK 👇
#energy
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
#renewables
#NetZero
#FossilFuels
#OOTT
#oilandgas
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Tight oil accounts for 70% of U.S. oil production decline since 2019.
Crude oil + condensate production peaked in 2019 at 12 mmb/d.
It is expected to decline by almost 1 mmb/d (8.5%) to 11 mmb/d in 2021.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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The U.S. oil production base decline was 41% per year in 2020.
Ouput would fall almost 5 mmb/d in a year if no new wells were drilled.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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“Tens of thousands of aging blades are coming down from steel towers around the world and most have nowhere to go but landfills.”
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
#NetZero
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“If you think that technology will solve your problems, then you don’t understand technology and you don’t understand your problems.”
—Laurie Anderson
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Energy is the Economy.
In 2021, that means oil, natural gas and coal.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Primary energy consumption expected to decline -15% in developed countries by 2050
& increase +35% in emerging countries
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#fintwit
#Commodities
#NaturalGas
#ONGT
#renewableenergy
#ClimateActionNow
#energytwitter
#CoalTwitter
#FossilFuels
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“The Permian is set to hit peak output in 2025.
“And if it does, it could set off alarm bells within the US and across the world, resulting in vastly higher oil prices.”
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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I hate to say it, but Tucker Carlson’s analysis of the Nordstream sabotage is more comprehensive than any I’ve seen that are publicly available.
The US is clearly a leading candidate for the act.
#UkraineRussiaWar
#NordStreamSabotage
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Since 1997, the world has used 51% of all the oil ever used.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
#energytwitter
#ClimateActionNow
#NetZero
#renewables
#energytransition
#Climatechange
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This is serious & is not about politics: U.S. is doing a poor job managing the outbreak & spread of CoV-19. We must demand better from ALL of our leaders.
All the WH spin and claims cannot change this: the US is becoming the country in the world with the worst
#COVID19
epidemic. THE WORST. If what Trump is doing is working, how coming our numbers are so much worse than other places?
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I hesitate to quote her, but she's right about this.
“If Russia & Saudi Arabia think they can close shale, they’re wrong. All they can do is change the ownership.”
--Amy Myers Jaffe, Council on Foreign Relations
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#fintwit
#OPEC
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"Projections for U.S. electricity demand growth over the next five years have doubled from a year ago.
"The major culprits: New artificial-intelligence data centers, federally subsidized manufacturing plants, & the government-driven electric-vehicle transition."
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“Even if somebody adds a rig . . . it takes six to eight months to get first production. There’s labour shortages, there’s frack fleet shortages, there’s rig shortages, there’s sand shortages.”
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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Permian basin wells have been drilled too closely together and are cannibalizing each other's production.
Hear me discuss that with
@njhagens
on The Great Simplification podcast.
👇
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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"A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired power plant."
--IEA
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#oil
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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"AI will require so much power they could strain the power grid and stymie the transition to cleaner energy sources.
“We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years. You’re kind of stuck.”
--Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz
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Energy ignorance is bliss.
There is very little oil & gas output to increase especially immediately.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
#energytwitter
Hate to say it, but we need to increase oil & gas output immediately.
Extraordinary times demand extraordinary measures.
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@franakviacorka
@PeterZeihan
I recommend
@TerribleMaps
for an alternative perspective on the pleasures of cartography!
Electricity consumption in Europe in 1507
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OK. I'm calling major bullshit on this.
IRENA forecasts 85% decline in oil production by 2050 to just over 11m barrels per day.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#oil
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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"New offshore wind will cost $121/MW...compared to electricity produced from a natural gas combined cycle power plant at $37."
#NaturalGas
#shale
#fintwit
#oilandgas
#Commodities
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Shale gas plays are beginning to look like a graveyard.
Expectations for future U.S. shale gas production may be too high and reserves may be overstated.
LINK 👇
#energy
#NaturalGas
#shale
#fintwit
#oilandgas
#Commodities
#ONGT
#natgas
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Permian tight oil production increased +618 kb/d (+12%) in 2022
despite lower rig counts than in 2018 and 2019
because of increased rig productivity
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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"The Cloud now has a greater carbon footprint than the airline industry.
"A single data center can consume the equivalent electricity of 50,000 homes."
#energy
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
#renewables
#NetZero
#FossilFuels
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Do I get to halt my funding of the US government pending a review of how it has managed the Coronavirus pandemic?
“Today I am instructing my administration to halt funding of the World Health Organization,” says President Trump in today’s
#pressbriefing
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Shale companies are not in business to make money. They are in business to get money.
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Earth temperature and energy consumption have a statistically perfect correlation from 1970 through 2022
Any more questions about climate change?
#energy
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
#renewables
#NetZero
#FossilFuels
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First new post on my new free website:
BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE PERMIAN
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#commodities
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Energy substitution is a doomsday stratagem that condemns civilization to its status quo path of growth & biophysical destruction.
No amount of non-fossil energy will make a difference until we lower total energy consumption & accept its consequence of no growth.
Period.
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Wind & solar with backup are the most expensive forms of electric power.
They are 21% more than expensive from combined-cycle natural gas, 44% more than from coal and 144% more than nuclear.
SEE MY POST👇
#energy
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
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US production currently declines at 37% per year
@Rs447S
That’s not just shale but ALL wells.
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#commodities
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Goldman Sachs forecasts that data center power demand will grow at 15% from 2023-2030
"47 GW of additional power generation capacity will be required to meet the growth in U.S. data center power demand by 2030."
#technology
#AI
#electricity
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The 39% decline rate is for ALL U.S. wells
@JimHall1478590
not just the shale wells.
This is the decline rate for the U.S. production base.
That's important. It's not a subset.
#energy
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
@aeberman12
How do people not know about this. It's vitally important to everything. That 39% figure is chilling. These are very different from conventional wells. You tell people this and they look at you like you're wearing a Mohawk. Energy blindness. Nate Hagens
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If you want to understand why oil prices have increased 180% since April 2020...
World crude + condensate production is almost 8 mmb/d less than in April 2020.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#oil
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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"There is no evidence that renewable energy has changed the upward trajectory of carbon emissions despite 36 international climate conferences & trillions of dollars of investment over the last 40years"
@robinenergy
#energy
#EnergyTransition
#ClimateActionNow
#renewables
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My forecast modified from AEO 2021:
US oil production unlikely to regain 2019 peak of 12 mmb/d.
Average 2022 output of 10.2 mmb/d expected to increase to 11.4 mmb/d in 2027 and then decline to 8.5 mmb/d by 2050.
#OOTT
#oilandgas
#oil
#WTI
#CrudeOil
#fintwit
#OPEC
#Commodities
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How about a windfall profit tax on Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple or Bitcoin?
I read Senator Warren talking about windfall profits tax on an industry that just went through a near death experience and is being asked to invest precious capital to bump production. So tone deaf and wrong that i am embarassed for our political system. Embarassed!
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