Nathan John Hagens
@NJHagens
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Human, analyst, catalyst for a future better than the default. Author of Reality Blind, Host of podcast "The Great Simplification".
Minnesota, Earth
Joined August 2011
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It's been over a year since we made the animated film The Great Simplification. In that time, the world has continued to track the systems synthesis presented in the movie: humans -combining energy and materials into technology and services, representing it all by money, in order
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I’d never seen this clip before. What a master communicator (and world class human). Imagine the coal oil wood and gas burned since this presentation 40 years ago. If Carl were alive today he’d be my
#1
choice as podcast guest. Bar none
A lesson on the greenhouse effect with Carl Sagan.
🎥: Carl Sagan testifying before Congress in 1985 on climate change
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For those friends are championing growing solar, wind, geothermal etc as the answer to climate change/CO2 pollution in Earth's biosphere/oceans, news flash: coal use just hit all time high. There is no energy transition, only energy addition. The Superorganism hungers...
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@peakaustria
As I “liked” your post I had a nauseous whole body reaction to the visual reminder of prior baselines. Compared to lonely dark universe what remains of Earths biodiversity is still ~Heaven -and worth valuing, protecting and fighting for..
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Sunday 'Best of The Great Simplification Clips' -Ecologist Bill Rees describing why ecological overshoot is THE fundamental issue that underpins all other issues:
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Looking at the world with an 'ecology' lens gives different conclusions (and prescriptions) than a technology or money lens. This Wed on TGS we'll hear from ecologist William Rees on why 'ecological overshoot' is THE fundamental issue facing human/planetary systems. A 2 min clip:
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This Wed, Doughnut-Economist
@KateRaworth
joins me for a lively discussion on alternative economic models, her experience advocating for them, and the adoption of them in cities and businesses internationally. A fantastic primer on the need for different economic measurements!
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Insects!! are in silent decline globally - yet we rarely discuss these trillions of tiny creatures who comprise the foundation of Earth's ecosystem functions. Joining me today to give a (butterfly's eye) overview is Professor Nick Haddad. Important topic:
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Here's a graph of Tom Murphy's that I posted in yesterday's Frankly. It shows the weight of terrestrial (land) wild mammals per human being over last 12k years. The slow decline from 10k BC to 1800 CE can mostly be attributed to growth in human population. But since 1800 to today
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Once in a while we record a 'must watch' podcast. Imo this Wed's episode w neuroscientist/philosopher Iain McGilchrist -about the schism in human consciousness between our left and right brains -is one of them. Beautiful conversation w/ a wonderful human being: A teaser clip:
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"What's missing" from our current economic stories/dogma is becoming increasingly apparent. Today's Best of TGS comes from our most recent episode with
@KateRaworth
unpacking 7 principles for 21st century economic thinking. Please watch/share!
On YT:
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This is a dense, difficult and extremely important conversation.
@ProfSteveKeen
presents a deep historical forensic on the origins of 'energy blindness' in macroeconomic theory, starting with Adam Smith and going all the way to the present. In short, via a long series of
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Below is a stunningly beautiful video of a starling murmuration. We look at it and detect beauty at how synchronized and flowing it is. But there is no choreography here - only emergence stemming from simple animal behaviors. Each starling follows simple rules:
1) Stay close to
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In 1972, the report "The Limits to Growth" was launched with a goal of changing how we think/act about the future of human systems. The reaction was mostly one of dismissal. On the 50 year anniversary of LTG, I discuss all this and more w Dennis Meadows:
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This. Country/locale dependent. Needs to happen at scale around Earth. A value shift will precede a technology shift. Dare we hope?
The Sahara desert is slowly being reforested using a crescent swale technique to retain water and generate small oases of
#biodiversity
that will expand into whole ecosystems.
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We can print money, we cannot print energy.
My vote for "Most important chart nobody seems to be focused on (yet)" 👇
Myriad implications for oil, inflation expectations, rates, geopolitics, FX, etc.
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Today, I’m joined by Jon Erickson, Josh Farley, Steve Keen & Kate Raworth - leading educators in heterodox economics - to discuss what conventional economics gets wrong & how its education could improve
@jon_d_erickson
@profstevekeen
@KateRaworth
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Just finished recording a podcast w Vandana Shiva. In speaking w her I realized that after 20+ years of research integrating: energy, ecology, behavior and economic systems, I still have very much to learn. What an inspiring human being. Episode out in ~2+ weeks
@drvandanashiva
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Just stop oil? Our economic system is severely impacting nature/systems but viewed from systems perspective, oil's critical role in modern society suggests it will leave us, before we leave it. Here is Part 2 in a Frankly mini-series 'Oil is the Economy':
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On the heels of record heat in 2023, Leon Simons joins me to unpack research he worked on with James Hansen on the connection between aerosol emission reductions from fuel regulations changes and accelerated global heating:
Full Episode➡️
@LeonSimons8
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This week,
@lukegromen
joins me to discuss the tether between cheap oil and the current and future state of our monetary system - including what that means for the dollar as the world's reserve currency. A two min clip:
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Yes, but what sort of climate action???
Heat waves are becoming more frequent, more intense and longer – all due to the impacts of the climate crisis.
#ClimateAction
can’t wait.
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@_HannahRitchie
Hannah - these are all good trends but they're actually NOT real progress on climate action. Ultimately - if GDP remains our cultural goal, all the things you list are extending growth based indirect emissions. Case in point Norway has 70%+ electric car sales but Norway's oil use
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The runway to The Great Simplification just got a lot shorter. The Ukraine situation -among other things -will narrow the wide chasm between the financial economy and the biophysical one. A thread ==> 1/n
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In 2023, we hosted a wide range of conversations about an increasingly chaotic world.
I wanted to share some impactful podcast moments for me this past year, which - when viewed together - reveal the importance of a systems lens. Everything is connected.
Thanks all & Happy New
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This week, Kevin Anderson joins me to discuss climate mitigation and equity.
@KevinClimate
Here's a 2 min clip on personal climate action 👇
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I humbly submit that the upcoming TGS episodes are an embarrassment of systems information/wisdom riches! (translation: I've learned a ton and am keen to share)
In rough order:
May 17 - Daniel Schmachtenberger on 'AI and the Superorganism' (3.5 hours, please prepare -it is A+)
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@RARohde
@_HannahRitchie
Why is that hopeful? We need to use less not more. Total emissions are at all time highs. Solar and wind cannot and should not power a 19TW society. Renewables can power a great civilization- just not this one. Why is no one talking about that?
#systemsBlind
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The "Woodstock" of degrowth meetings happened earlier this week in Europe. As followers of TGS know, I believe 'degrowth' is what we SHOULD do, but 'post-growth' is what we're going to HAVE to do. Here are some brief reflections on 'Beyond Growth':
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Technology-on its own - is NOT the answer to the Human Predicament
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Will have Leon on the show in December to discuss this research (and profoundly bad implications if true)
🔥 Smoke from our fires kept Earth cool.
🗓️ Potentially for thousands of years!
In Global warming in the pipeline (1), our recent paper lead by the great
@DrJamesEHansen
, we presented this theory.
This might help answer the question of why the planet didn't warm (or even
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I’ve asked my friend
@KateRaworth
to host our 100th Episode on The Great Simplification next week. She probably has several quivers full of sharp questions but pls reply here w any more~ (recording will be out in 2 weeks) Should be fun!
Are you a fan of Nate Hagens' excellent podcast 'The Great Simplification'? (if not yet, check it out!). We'll be turning the tables next week & I'll be interviewing *him*. So what would you like me to ask Nate about the Superorganism, finance & the future of energy?
@NJHagens
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I've known about BTC due to central bank/debt crisis -but in this conversation Alex Gladstein opened my eyes to the 'debt colonialism' and monetary exclusion ongoing in Global South. I learn a lot on these podcasts! Another piece of puzzle:
@gladstein
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If we got rid of ALL internal combustion cars, and no longer needed ANY gasoline, how much would global oil consumption and CO2 emissions decline? Answer: very little. In today's Frankly I reflect on a large misconception on how oil is used and refined:
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This is…. not good. Especially at this early stage-imagine when things get worse?
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Degrowth - or a reduction in material throughput - is a near certainty in coming decades. Could it be voluntary? Can it be informed? Can it be prepared for? These questions and more with ecological economist
@timparrique
on this week's TGS podcast:
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Today, Kevin Anderson joins me to unpack the relationship between carbon emissions (past and future) + their impacts wrt global inequality -- and how this relates to viable paths to remaining below a 2ºC global temp increase.
@KevinClimate
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The situation w Israel/Iran is fluid and dangerous. Like with so much else, our culture is 'energy blind'.
Most don't realize that ~1/2 of the world's exportable oil travels through a ~2 mile wide channel in the Strait of Hormuz.
This week's Frankly:
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Good (mainstream) summary of the rebound effect, aka Jevons Paradox
🧵Here's a thread about an obscure economic theory from a century and a half ago, which is about to become a MASSIVE deal.
⚡️It helps explains why tackling climate change is going to be v v hard. Some say impossible.
The story begins with this building👇
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Thread
Below is a summary from my recent talk on 33 core beliefs prevalent in modern culture contrasted with our underlying biophysical realities.
NB: This was intended to be as a single presentation but am posting each segment separately here.
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Yesterday French President Macron said we're at the "end of raw materials and products on a scale that seemed endless". Is this a watershed moment for recognizing energy/materials/consumptive limits? Here's a 9 min riff on how I see things:
#Frankly
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🧵 (1/8) Last week the IMF produced a report stating that in 2022 subsidies to fossil fuels increased to $7+trillion, fully 14% of GDP. The response on environmental social media was one of disgust and outrage. This week’s Frankly unpacks what’s really going on:
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Welcome! -We're working on new Reality 101 video series - and much more - in 2023. For now, here's where to find our work:
32 min animated movie:
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We've arrived at...Episode
#100
! Thanks to
@KateRaworth
for graciously interviewing me on: my evolving worldview, what I've learned, what to do, etc. Much more on deck in '24. I'm still learning, still curious, and still care a great deal about our future:
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Today I welcome back Daniel Schmachtenberger to unpack a new paper, which he co-authored, entitled Development in Progress, an analysis on the history of progress and the consequences of ‘advancement’.
Full episode:
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What are we teaching young people in Econ 101 about how the world works? And how does this depart from the system's reality?
Jon Erickson, Josh Farley, Kate Raworth & Steve Keen join me Sunday on Reality Roundtable to discuss this
@jon_d_erickson
@ProfSteveKeen
@KateRaworth
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I don't think we'll plan for degrowth - but post-growth societies are on the horizon. Conversations like todays w Giorgos Kallis can act as Overton Windows, to help people imagine and create responses as post-growth becomes reality to more people
@g_kallis
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I learned this morning that Herman Daly unexpectedly passed away. Herman had a huge influence on the field of (heterodox) economics, on other humans working towards livable futures, and on me/my path. Here is short reflection - w/ our recent podcast conversation link in comments
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Iran, UAE and Saudi Arabia just joined BRICS. This means that almost 60% of world oil available for purchase (exports not production) is from BRICS nations. The days of the petrodollar are numbered. May we use those days wisely..
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Today neuroscientist and scholar
@dr_mcgilchrist
joins me to discuss the role our brain hemispheres play in humanity's modern separation from nature/the Whole. A really beautiful conversation with a graceful wise human being - I learned and was inspired:
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Today I'm joined by climate physicist Levke Caesar for a comprehensive overview of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its connections to broader planetary systems.
Full episode:
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This Wednesday will be Episode
#100
of The Great Simplification. What?!! Holy crap! Time flies - I've learned a ton - about the world, about my guests, and about myself. Lots more on deck- we're already recorded/booked through April 2024. The world is converging on this story:
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OCEANS: This Sunday, Daniel Pauly, Antonio Turiel, Peter Ward and I discuss the often overlooked challenges - from climate change to fishing to plastics - facing our great oceans. A brief preview:
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Systems ecologist Bill Rees joins me today on The Great Simplification in a wide ranging discussion on ecology, biocapacity, overshoot, ecological footprint, human behavior and prospects for the future.
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Unfortunately very many humans don’t understand this or why it’s important. Global heating is almost the perfect storm for us to ignore and deny (until we can’t)
CO₂ is 𝙤𝙣𝙡𝙮 0.04% how can that effect anything?
A cloud is 0.00003% liquid water which can block the sun entirely.
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@skdh
Net zero at anything close to 19 Tw global energy metabolism is delusional. 99% of focus is on “tech” but tech ignores ecology, culture, human behavior and systems. Our entire economy is based on carbon. Even things that don’t contain oil, goal or gas contain indirect carbon. I
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@DoctorVive
@paulkrugman
Agreed. More energy efficiency will just lead to more consumption/emissions. (albeit at declining rate if low carbon energy grows> GDP). But until/unless we change GDP/monetary growth as a cultural aspiration, eg Musks/Krugmans tech view will lead to more total heat.
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Financial and economic stability are typically assumed as a constant going forward. Joining me today for an energy informed overview of how oil, geopolitics, interest rates, and currencies suggest a different era ahead is macro specialist
@LukeGromen
:
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2024 is going to be something…
Staggering acceleration of global warming is underway, driven by a huge planetary energy imbalance, which in turn is traced mainly to our Faustian aerosol bargain. Six months more of the acceleration are still to come. See Measuring Stick -
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@antonioguterres
This is true. But ONLY if GDP and economic growth are no longer our cultural goals. Else the “market” will never replace FF w renewables, only add to build larger global heat engine- as is happening now. Renewable energy can power a great society, just not this one, at this scale
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With our eyes closed, we don't get much warning that the bottom of a milkshake is nigh, until we hear the slurping sound.
@aeberman12
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Slowly slowly this is becoming more recognized. Historians will view this as the fatal flaw of 20th century “stories” that led our culture unprepared into the 21st. Thanks
@ProfSteveKeen
and also to all the other biophysical economists of last 50+ yrs
Growth in "factor productivity" pretty much entirely goes away when energy is included as a factor of production. It's just energy use that's growing.
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"Human intelligence, unbound by wisdom, is the cause of the metacrisis". 😳TGS Best of Clips ==>Daniel Schmachtenberger from recent conversation on 'Artificial Intelligence and the Superorganism'. (First of many clips to highlight from this episode). 🙏❤️🌏
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This morning, I needed just this:
You're living through a fourth turning.
Terrible things will continue to happen that are entirely out of your control.
This is not a new human experience.
But our 24/7 acute awareness of these events is.
It's up to you to decide what you give your attention, emotion, and
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In mid-December, I went to India for 6 weeks. I'm back, the same guy, but with renewed clarity on both the work that needs to happen in the world and my role in it.
I'd never been to India before, I only knew the basic stats - a densely populated piece of land with an extremely
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Really clever 5 minute video on GDP vs nature by Partha Dasgupta highlighted in NY Times. (I think we need more short engaging vids like this to simplify complex issues to increasingly short attn spans). Great job
@nytimes
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This Wednesday on The Great Simplification, econometrician and sustainability researcher Gaya Herrington joins me to discuss her new book, a more in-depth and personal telling of her 2021 review of the Limits to Growth.
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After a year full of strange weather, Leon Simons joined me in January to discuss how aerosols might be interacting with climate as explained in 2023 paper, Warming in the Pipeline (Hansen, et al.): .
Full ep. ➡️
@LeonSimons8
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Of all the misconceptions in today's world - "where does money come from" is about the largest + most dangerous. Banks create money when they make loans! (NB: they don't create oil, copper or dolphins at same time). Here is short clip w
@ProfSteveKeen
, continuing 'best of TGS' 22
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I love the podcast part of my job! All conversations in the queue for The Great Simplification are really fantastic!(+wildly diverse). Queue is: Jon Erickson, Vandana Shiva, Simon Michaux, Patrick Ophuls, DJ White, Tomas Bjorkman and more. Tune in on Wednesdays humans/friends~
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Today, science journalist Peter Brannen joins me for an overview of Earth's prior mass extinctions and why understanding these catastrophic events from millions of years ago can give us insights into what we're doing to the climate today:
@PeterBrannen1
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WHAT IF - there was a technology that allowed people in a room to ask completely anonymous questions, with no recourse to their reputation or job or status?
Humans are social primates -we REALLY care about social appearance, status and public perception. Our default mode when we
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Peak Oil -a phaseshift moment for global economies - has always been both a complex and polarizing topic. Today
@aeberman12
returns to give an update on peak oil, and importantly - why only 60% of what we now call oil, is actually oil. Must watch episode:
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Reality Roundtable
#2
on Deep(er) Ecology this Sunday, w/ William Rees, Nora Bateson, and Rex Weyler
Can we expand our thinking beyond the cultural and social constructs we've come to depend on?
Can we learn to think of ourselves in relation to the whole?
A 3 minute clip 👇
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This Sunday, Jason Bradford,
@AndrewMillison
,
@DrVandanaShiva
, and Daniel Zetah join me for a Roundtable discussion on what agriculture, work, and society might look like in a future with less (or without) fossil fuels - and what it takes to get there
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Serendipity. On same flight as Steve Keen results in MMT lesson on Minsky systems software in Amsterdam airport! I learned a lot…
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Escape from Model Land!! Tomorrow we interview Dr Erica Thompson about her new book -on how models - specifically climate models - suffer both from a lack of creativity and are becoming overly reductionist and what this implies for our reality. Here's a 2 min clip!
@H4wkm0th
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A few weeks ago, Steve Keen joined me to unpack how economics became so 'energy blind' - including the story of the physiocrats, who predated Adam Smith & saw Earth's resources as the foundation of all economic activity:
Ep:
@ProfSteveKeen
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Will Long Covid ultimately be the arrow that mortally wounds the economic Superorganism? Increasingly seems plausible to me:
The number of people (aged 16-64) out of work due to long-term sickness has risen by 31% since 2020 to a record 2.81 MILLION.
That’s 6.6% of the workforce.
To put it another way: For every 14 people working, 1 is out of work due to chronic illness.
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Today on 'Best of TGS clips', historian Patrick Ophuls opines on the four greatest 'disconnects from Reality' in our current cultural discourse.
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I'm becoming a social media master! (not..!) Seriously, the amt of wisdom relevant to human/planetary future from the TGS podcast is *large* and growing. Hopefully >budget and >reach in 2023. (Using devil's tools to do Gaia's work - more to come) Thank you for paying attention~
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Word…
One thing I think about sometimes is how recent the world's energy abundance is.
And yet we take it for granted like it has just always been this way and that we are owed it.
My father was born at the green dot below- the oil age was barely even getting going yet.
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Energy surplus has allowed modern humans to detach our governance from the natural flows of our geography. What might the US look like if it had implemented a 'watershed democracy' to tether our decisions to the land?
@AndrewMillison
joins me Wed on TGS to discuss this & more:
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Today, financial analyst Lyn Alden joins me to unpack the complex interactions between money, tech, and energy.
Full ep. ➡️
What's ahead for: growth, government debt, interest rates, BTC and system stability? This is not your grandfather's economic
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This Wednesday Alex Gladstein joins me for a deep dive on: debt, the petrodollar, 'monetary colonialism' and bitcoin as response to activism/human rights. I learned a lot (and as seems often to be the case "it's worse than than I thought".) Here is 2 min teaser clip:
@gladstein
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Moloch and the Superorganism hunger… (will have a Frankly on this next Friday)
New AI chips use an insane amount of electricity.
A single Nvidia GPU chip consumes about the same amount of energy as a typical US home.
Nvidia GPUs alone will consume more than the entire planned US data center capacity expansions over the next decade.
h/t
@d51mmons
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Today, Prof Robert Sapolsky, a giant in the field of neuroscience, joins me to discuss how evolutionary biology shapes our behavior - and what that might mean for philosophical discussions on determinism (the subject of his new book). A fantastic episode:
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No good options remain. This is one of the worst. Paging Dr Strangelove. (I dearly hope I’m very wrong)
Blinken says that Ukraine will be joining NATO. Under Article 5, this means that an attack on Ukraine will be considered an attack on the United States. If you want World War 3, vote Biden in November.
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How COULD we arrive to a post-growth economy? Given the energy hunger of the Superorganism, 'better tech', 'more renewables' etc will not get us there. Here I list 10 possible pathways- on each of them we have to 1st navigate the 4 Horsemen of the 2020s:
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1/3 I learned much in 22 about 'the world' from my guests, but I also learned about 'my guests'. At this time of upheaval, with the Superorganism in charge, we can't impose our will on the SYSTEM, but CAN impose it on our own lives. Else aside, Daniel walks his talk, in many ways
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Here in Wisconsin, we are seeing spring in February - and in anticipation of the likely record-heat ahead of us, I’m reminded of what I most care about - protecting the Earth and its inhabitants.
In lieu of a Frankly this week, here are a few prior Earth Day talks:
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The Carbon Pulse - a one time, finite endowment of concentrated energy. We know the shape of it so far, but what will it look like in the coming century(s)? Today's Frankly:
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Currently hunkered down due to polar blast- (the animals don’t know -or care - about Rossby waves). They are with their (diverse!) pack so all is good, for now..dreaming of…not sugar plums, but squirrels probably. Happy holidays- from my family to yours…🐿🎄🌎
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39,000 lbs of minerals and fossil carbon/hydrocarbon annually per person in USA. Both energy and material blind (and relationship between the two). Among many other things, this is unsustainable...
We talk about the energy needed to power our civilization but less about materials needed.
All materials on left of diagram rely almost exclusively on fossil fuels for extraction, production, distribution & use.
Let that sink in when you talk about getting off of fossil fuels.
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Of my fears about the future, this ranks near the top…
Just had a disturbing thought - Gen X is the last generation that can have any confidence that anything in history is real.
Previously the effort of faking *everything* would have been too big - now, it's not.
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Reality Roundtable
#2
! - "Deep(er) Ecology" w
@NoraBateson
, Rex Weyler and William Rees. What would an 'ecological civilization' look like? Three diverse perspectives and insights on 'ecology and the human predicament':
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Am halfway home (Paris) from 6 week trip to India. I was naive about that country, its history and its people-what a warm, deep, crazy, beautiful place, which not too long ago had the largest economy in the world. I learned a great deal, about India, about myself, and about being
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