Adam Sherman 🔸
@Squee451
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Full-time prediction market trader. Dad.
Internet
Joined December 2009
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Pinned Tweet
1,000 likes and I finally write the article of why you can't interpret odds for prediction markets directly as market odds of some event happening, especially when PVP mode is on and the time value of money is highest to sophisticated participants.
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@aMSaRedyoshi
the DQ stands for Don't Quit Yoshi, they forgot a letter. The green checkmark just confirms that someone is going to complain about the game after the match!
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@CathyReisenwitz
I dont have a strong opinion about this if you believe it. But olympic women would not be able to compete against high school men in most categories. Did a brief google search about this.
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Thank you
@KevinHart4real
for making watching NLHE great again. A real pleasure to watch him play.
#greatforpoker
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@RokoMijic
@lisatomic5
We want everyone to live we also don't defect first round in the prisoner dilemma.
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@C_Kavanagh
You've lost it comparing these two. Eric is saying this was foreseeable, and experts foresaw both of these risks but were not listened to. Alex Jones said he knew this was going to happen personally and thinks of himself as Cassandra. There's a difference.
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My experience with the worst cryptocurrency I've ever used
@UMAprotocol
. I discourage people from partnering with them. It doesn't incentivize truthful resolutions, just voting with whales. It has no use as an oracle and appears pretty useless.
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@dylanmatt
Do you think that members of the campout you were at yelled things and took actions that made a minority group fear for their safety?
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40bb and 20 left in the millionaire maker for day 4 tomorrow. Playing down to 5 if I make that, I've finally transformed into a profitable live poker player.
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I'm blessed to be in the millionaire maker day 4. To celebrate that I'm donating 18% of my profits to
@GiveWell
maximum impact fund. If you are as lucky as I am to be able to play the WSOP and live in a rich wealthy nation, know that just 5k could save a life. Would love joiners!
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@MVG_Mew2King
loving your smash ultimate commentary so much, learning so much about how to play and get out of basic situations. Favorite commentator so far!
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I'm thrilled to welcome Theodore Isholaoluwa Sherman to the world at 7 pounds 2 oz. Baby and mother are healthy and happy. I am over the moon to meet my first son.
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@whstancil
Did you watch the debate and think that was okay from either candidate running for president? I watched the debate every time this was the first time Biden couldn't answer questions and call the other guy a liar. That's all he needed to do.
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@proetrie
Toto bidet toilet seat will change your shits forever. It's a long-term money-saver on toilet paper. Women who come over will love it. I got a $400 version on Amazon, was a great purchase. Also, mattress/pillows/comforters if you haven't optimized yet. it's 1/3 of your life
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@yhdistyminen
@QueenOfHeartsSF
Why do elected officials think doing something includes making the colors of lights Blue/Yellows. Yes, I'd prefer the mayors of cities in America do their jobs. Announce how you'll take in refugees? Help Ukrainians living in SF there deal with banking problems and remittances?
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Watch the
@AndrewYangVFA
Rogan interview. Pardon all low-level MJ offenders, reasonable plan to finance his UBI program, centrist redistribution policies for the future. I don't spam political support often. Very few candidates I'd do this for. .
#Yang2020
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@VanessaSelbst
@SamHarrisOrg
The main point to me is that freedom of speech/expression is increasingly being encroached upon by the extreme left.
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Wake up, bet 40k on Joe Biden being alive, go hang with the baby, repeat.
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@VanessaSelbst
@SamHarrisOrg
This is more of a commentary on the state of free speech in particular at Yale, as opposed to "minorities are too sensitive"
#respectyouboth
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Shout out
@Polymarket
for the amazing election coverage and work. Debate night bingo was amazing, all the mention markets, the realtime update of Biden's chances. It was all the best coverage last night and if you read the news and didn't watch it, you didn't see what happened
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Polymarket going from only far-right crypto $ when Trump traded 70% to CT promoting theories that Kamala is dumping money to inflate her price is proof that the average person won't believe reality can change in front of their eyes, even when everyone is watching it together.
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2:1 odds the Senate goes to Republicans on
@PolymarketHQ
. Currently, you can bet up to $3000 and only move the price 1 penny from 33c. Best place to bet on politics and prediction markets in general.
@MattGlantz
@BartHanson
and poker/crypto punters come hedge political risk!
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18
First trip to Vegas where I couldn't feel better leaving. Raised, over 18k for
@Givewell
! They estimated 2-3 lives saved, that's unbelievable to me. First Vegas trip where I left feeling that I accomplished something really positive.
#ggvegas
#lfjoiners
#bb4main
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Get refunded my Barron bet, straight to less fortunate people, won money on DJT is real, straight to people who need it. Won money betting during debate last night, right to the needy. Win money with
@Polymarket
improve the world with
@GiveDirectly
.
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@AndrewYangVFA
Donating to my first political campaign for a candidate ever. we need some level-headed participants on stage!
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@BadMedicalTakes
Basically, every study finds caloric restriction extends lifespan in humans and other species? Is this not true, I love food and don't care but he's right?
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@pseudocia
Should we ban private tutoring as well? Ban Kumon or extra money on early education? Ban private preschool? Ban tutoring combined with childcare? Ban any advantage money buys for kids? How is forcing kids to attend a terrible school district better than providing alternatives?
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@Domahhhh
Ahh yes the old build up 125k shares of no at 85c and then post about how the approval everyone was talking about as the important approval is not the approval needed.
@UMAprotocol
is sure to let you sail this one through as a no with 19b-4's approved.
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@padspoker
@Jbex2417
After winning $500k online in the 9 months prior I proceeded to go 1/46 in my first series in Vegas, down 120k, and I realized I had run bad for less than one sunday. Last full series in vegas.
1
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@micsolana
@UMAprotocol
@Polymarket
@MartinShkreli
There's no incentive to vote correctly, all the incentive to vote together, and Polymarket has been interfering previously so it doesn't get to UMA. I made a mistake trusting they'd read the evidence this time, I don't think Polymarket will continue to rely on them going forward.
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@C_Kavanagh
@IonaItalia
@ColinLusk
I think that when people criticize the left/woke, even when they agree with 80-90% of their views they get portrayed as right-wing or a trump supporter suggests something is amiss with polarization and in group bias. Not the person.
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@Neoavatara
I mean hes really not the smartest or dumbest, but you were someone who was tweeting 2 weeks ago at 4k deaths it would take 70 years to reach a million. I wonder how much you are qualified to judge other peoples interpretation of graphs and math in general.
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It turns out there was a reason all the democratic mouthpieces and pundits and political scientists did not actually want to bet with Nate Silver. We'll never know that reason, but we'll have to ponder and together we can figure it out.
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The best final four odds on the internet are available
@PolymarketHQ
, can bet 2k on UNC +173 or Kansas -187, better odds for smaller bets.
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When gambling addiction , a refusal to hedge, and a deep faith in Jerome Powell meets prediction markets
@Polymarket
.
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The only place to bet on
#chess
consistently, no vig. I got this little beauty last night. Thanks,
@PolymarketHQ
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Chopped the milly for the dream sunday, lost the HU match though. Thanks for the support, feels like a dream come true
#walkingonsunshine
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@RBReich
Go on. The cut in pay definitely cost them more than their tesla stock compensation earned them. I'm sure you've done the math.
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“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It's hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It's round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you've got a hundred years here. There's only one rule that I know of, babies-"God damn it, you've got to be kind.” - Kurt Vonnegut
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Time to price up some basketball and some mass political violence. Just another day at Polymarket.
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@MattGlantz
Just laid 30:1 that the next president inaugurated for a 4 year term will be a democrat. We are less than 40 hours from inauguration.
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Will
@MartinShkreli
Pay
@Domahhhh
the 30k he owes him when Polymarket resolves is DJT real to no? Only if he is an honest man and true to his word like he says!
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You vote Biden in your blue state cause you are a Liberal who supports his policies or is terrified of Trump. I vote Biden in my blue state cause I win 58k if he wins the popular vote. We are not the same
@polymarket
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@eigenrobot
@_its_not_real_
@himbodhisattva
@shakoistsLog
Just read this to my 4 day old and did not keep it together....
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As a White Jewish husband playing second-fiddle to a brilliant, gorgeous, intelligent Black woman I could not be more excited to finally see myself represented in the Whitehouse.
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@LandonTice
@bp22
Stop betting with a professional trader who is negotiating you into the bad sides of probabilistic events. Jesus, did you not see his Natural Gas summer forecast, why bet against the guy. Google Amaranth Advisors, and hit the showers.
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Dream first level as I won around 600 blinds boat over boat. 129k from 60k going to 200/300.
#wsopme2019
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@yhdistyminen
@SwannMarcus89
Respect you both, but would like an argument against the idea that it's the only asset that you can easily exit a country with from a government that is seizing wealth from its citizens arbitrarily.
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6 fig unrealized gains in a day just hit different on Polymarket, you can keep your shitcoins.
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So I am to the far left of
@FedSoc
, but we agree on looser licensing restrictions. Restrictions have weakened the USA's ability to respond to this pandemic. I encourage you to attend a webinar that my favorite senator,
@senatorshoshana
is a part of.
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Day 3 of the millionaire maker, last tourney this trip in Vegas, got 22bb and a dream. If I get 5th, I'm break-even lifetime in Vegas. Only a couple hundred people in my way.
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@TheZvi
@ButlerianIdeal
@anthrupad
Most people who find a problem like me, think step 4 is unlikely. Without recursive self improvement, nanotech factories, or Foom, I don't see how it stops competing AIs that have different goals or are solely meant to stop it from growing. Justifying 4 is worth a blog post.
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Pundits post that 67c biden shares are worth 1$ and delete the tweet as they realize they are wrong. Chads like
@Domahhhh
bet on Kamala being the nominee on
@Polymarket
and make millions in profit from prediction markets, they are not the same.
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@strassa2
@Polymarket
Yes, happy to do a 10 minute call to explain the intricacies, you convinced me to quit poker and interview/work at DRW. Life-changing stuff man, happy to return the favor.
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Update: 48 hours until
@UMAprotocol
dispute time about Barron/DJT/Martin. My bags are full. I'm ready to get in there.
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Dear world, if you don't believe because of moral cluelessness, your views on eating meat, abortion, gun control, free speech, economic growth, and climate change have at least a 10% chance of being wrong, then this probably won't convince you, but you are too damn cocky.
#IDK
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@maggieNYT
Dear Maggie Haberman, for godssakes Martin Shkreli and
@micsolana
a famous republican journalist are saying Martin and Barron Trump started a memecoin. There's been no official denial, please get an official denial so I can stop losing my mind.
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@TheRocsWorld
I'm dying. All the conservatives "Wow we thought she had some really good ideas about Black people, but when she took that same energy towards Israel and Jewish people it turned out she was filled with hateful lies. Nothing further to examine here!"
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@lastpositivist
The key number is 90% less likely to be infected which implies 90% less likely to transmit which is much greater than cloth masks. 10% of vaccinated people can transmit to others but viral loads seem reduced which should imply less spread as well.
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I am no longer in the WSOP ME 2021, to all those who also never 3b 3barreled A5s against someone in the first level of the main but were curious, Kings does not fold in my sample. GL out there to the champs!
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Barron fans and believers, right now the market says that there is less than a 50% chance that
@MartinShkreli
worked with Barron Trump. I need you in the
@UMAprotocol
discord to make the case that Barron was involved. Could be a huge ruling for DJT!
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WE FUCKING DID IT LETS GO USA USA USA
Polymarkets Gold Medal winner market comes down to theUSA winning 2 of the four events: Women's basketball and one of Cycling, Women's Wrestling 76kg, and Women's Volleyball. It's this happening or communism winning... Let's go America.
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@Noahpinion
@ejenk
Wait you don't think the current healthcare regulations make it more expensive? Not allowing medicare/medicaid to negotiate, regulation requiring emergency care and not preventative care, regulation around nurse practitioners opening clinics all seem to raise costs?
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My case to the UMA court. Wish me luck we got a bag.
I still can't believe I think Barron Trump and Martin Shkreli started a memecoin together but here we are.
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@lastpositivist
It's just a platitude. It's said after someone tries to kill a politician, or your kid hits another little kid on the playground. You are assigning meaning and sincerity when he actually has 0 views strongly held. He's just lying, ignoring this will improve your life greatly!
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Biggest donation so far to my man over in Montana Jon Tester. We like him as a person, we like him for Montana, he cares about Montanans first not Biden first and he put country before party asking Biden to step down early so double the donation to him $1800. God Bless you.
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If Polymarket had meaningful trade logs, I'd be sharing some hand histories. Haven't felt like I've been battling in the streets like this since 2009 poker days.
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Begging people to learn that the fedwatch tool and options markets don't sum to probabilities like this. It's an insanely dumb way to interpret the option markets and we keep doing this.
TRADERS SEE THE ODDS OF A FED RATE CUT BY SEPTEMBER AT 100% - CNBC
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2K
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Begging Democrats to stop saying this is our last time voting if Trump wins, this is insane rhetoric. All the real horrible things about Trump are plenty, don't gaslight your base anymore.
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@C_Kavanagh
@IonaItalia
@ColinLusk
To be clear I'm referencing
@IonaItalia
. I would never encourage anyone to vote for Trump over Biden. Who is doing that? Maybe James? but he's gone off the deep end in the last 9 months
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@JeremiahDJohns
We, on OUR political side, don't us or them reality, that's what THEY do. No notes, perfect as is.
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