Jane Green
@ProfJaneGreen
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Director | Co-Director @BESResearch | President @BritPollingCncl | elections @itvnews | @americanacad | @AcadSocSciences
Nuffield College, Oxford
Joined February 2010
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It is obvious but worth saying ... the narrative is:
Conservative MPs are considering the electoral hit from
#partygate
on whether they change leader.
Not:
Conservative MPs are considering whether a PM must adhere to rules he set for others during a national crisis.
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It’s staggering how much the Conservative Party, and the values it is espousing to the outside world, have changed.
Currently watching some old Conservative party political broadcasts (cos I’m all about fun) and came across this one from 2011.
I…think it’s quite good?
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Let’s not forget: Johnson delivered Brexit, the PM is popular among Leave voters, the Tory govt spent staggering amounts of £ in the pandemic and overseen an amazingly successful vaccine rollout so we’re now very optimistic, and the economy is rebounding....
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Shout out to
@KateAndrs
for taking the flak, rising above it and championing the needs of the most vulnerable. And well played David Dimbleby. Women and anyone else who suffers online abuse - let's not be cowed.
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Breaking. Covid rules applied to people not having very difficult days.
This is not going to go down well (again).
Flash of anger from Johnson: those who say we were partying "do not know what they are talking about".
Garden drinks party in No.10 was at end of a "very difficult day, the Cabinet Secretary just resigned".
NB doesn't mention resignation followed briefing against Mark Sedwill.
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As they say, some professional news...
It is a very great honour for me to take over from the peerless
@whatukthinks
, for whom everyone
@BritPollingCncl
is incredibly grateful for his sixteen years of service.
NEW: Professor Jane Green is the new President of the British Polling Council
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I’m going to do a short thread on what I think could be some surprises tomorrow night….
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More than 150 Conservative seats without a candidate
Senior Tories expect a significant number of further MP resignations over the weekend, in the wake of Gove’s and Leadsom’s decisions not to fight the election. Quite a number who have been re-approved as candidates have been in two minds, and thought they had till the autumn to
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I have studied electoral accountability now for years and I'm concerned we're in a kind of hole where the problems are too big and the expectations now too low, that things don't seem to matter as much as they should. Or is this hole just twitter? I am not sure.
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Labour were predicted to gain between 105 and 590 seats...
It's
#LE2019
on Thursday so here's the deal for
@GuardianAnushka
's
#GeekOfTheWeek
. All these experts expect a tough night for the Conservatives, but the closest projection wins.
Who do you reckon is right - Profs Thrasher and Rallings, Lord Hayward or
@StephenDFisher
?
#Peston
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I am v. aware that pointing these things out it can look partisan. But I’d be concerned about such messages, for politics and society, if *any* political party misled, intentionally or otherwise. People start believing these things, and then we descend.
So just to keep track:
• Stopped a non-existent tax on meat
• Stopped a non-existent compulsory car-sharing policy
• Stopping a non-existent plan for UK to take 100k asylum seekers
• Pledged new tram routes in Manchester and Nottingham which already exist
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Incl. "Research recently unveiled by Professor Jane Green, a political scientist at Oxford, suggests that the disintegration of support for the Tories is much less down to ideology than it is about a collapse of trust in their competence."
What will be an appropriate epitaph to inscribe on the tombstone of this Tory government?
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This feels, for now, like the 2019 general election result but without the Brexit Party standing in Lab seats and with local election levels of voting for Greens and Lib Dem’s.
Labour in an accentuated pincer movement on both sides.
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This is very, very unhealthy.
Jacob Rees Mogg on R4: suggesting chaos in the bond markets is due to the mini budget is a breach of BBC impartiality.
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Here's a longer thread on just some of the challenges I think there are to interpretation tomorrow night.
Please do add if you think I've missed anything.
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Quite amazing to me how quickly Tory MPs have turned on the PM, who so recently they thought had magical qualities in an only Brexit world. Context is everything. And so is competence.
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It’s really not good when they have to say this re: *this evening*.
No 10 source says no more government resignations expected this evening
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You know those polls last week showing support for Scottish independence. Those people are watching what is happening now between London and Manchester. The people of Manchester won't forget. And the Welsh Assembly might just be showing us all how its done.
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Tony Blair is absolutely right about this: electoral system could mean gov tries to claim a mandate for a no deal Brexit - with a majority of voters voting against no deal parties. Just another set of contested claims about 'what the people voted for'.
"You don't want an election because you fear the outcome, you want a second referendum because you didn't like the result of the first. What kind of a democrat are you?"
@AfNeil
challenges Tony Blair on backing referendum before election
#andrewneilshow
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If we didn’t have MRP, we’d be focusing on:
1. The Labour range in the polls, what different outcomes are possible on that basis
2. The huge swing needed from 2019. Bigger than Blair’s etc.
The MRPs are driving expectations, based on efficient Labour vote.
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Worth reflecting - where Hunt now says the mini-budget was a mistake, without OBR etc, Rees-Mogg accused BBC for breaching impartiality when framing it as cause of problems.
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Common assumption about
#GE2017
- Labour gained from surge in youth turnout. Not true, as we reveal today, see:
@BESResearch
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Check this out by Ed Fieldhouse: evidence from a large
@BESResearch
sample that Labour's voters in Leave seats are majority *Remain* (and in Remain seats too). Its what
@robfordmancs
has been talking about, with new evidence ... important for what Labour does next.
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The problem in this campaign is everything that is happening may not *change* polls, but may *stop polls from changing*.
E.g. Farage entry and Tory Reform squeeze.
E.g. Conservative blunders and regaining undecideds.
They may be the things that matter, but we see no change.
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Evidence here from
@BESResearch
for why Conservatives should benefit from the collapse of the Brexit Party vote in Hartlepool. ref. today's
@Survation
poll.
A thread with
@RAdeGeus
@NuffieldCollege
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I know this is a massive simplification.
But I cannot help but feel so furious atm with how many of our political leaders have been beholden to their wealth and the wealthy. It feels as though it is the deep root of so much that is awful right now.
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1. Reform do better in vote share (and therefore seat share) than expected. Why? Could be that younger non-grad males tend to be under-sampled in polls, and may be moving behind Farage. Think more likely than ‘shy’ Reform vote, but could be that too.
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A thing of beauty
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I want to express my gratitude to David Butler, who was unwaveringly generous to me, kind, wise, utterly engaged at all times, staggeringly knowledgeable, and without whom we wouldn't have election studies as we know it. It is a very sad day.
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This was a great experience at the end of Sept. An honour to be among so many inspirational leaders and trailblazers, underpinned by a message of service and the social importance of research. Thank you to
@americanacad
, to those who nominated me and all who have supported me.
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Me too. And because their share was ZERO in Tory seats last time, the increase in share is going to be bigger, consequentially.
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This is it. This tells you everything about who gets protected and who doesn’t.
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NEW! w/
@RosieShorrocks
The Gender Backlash in the Vote for Brexit
@PolBehavior
@NuffieldCollege
@OfficialUoM
.
Blog here:
Paper here:
And a thread...
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3. Small late swing to Tories. Why? Remaining undecided voters lean to women. And Con 2019 voters older. But I expect older women to a) really want to vote, and b) be more wary of Farage. The gender split on Reform VI is big.
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Not one but two Bafta nominations this time for
@itvnews
' general election results programme. Privilege to be involved with a stellar team.
So pleased for everyone at
@itvnews
@ITVNewsPolitics
for our two Bafta nominations - ITV News at Ten: Election Results (news coverage) and Election 2019 Live: The Results (live event). Bloody proud to be part of such a brilliant team.
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In 20 minutes, I and
@RAdeGeus
will be launching our new
@NuffieldCollege
@UoRPolitics
report on how economic insecurity is reshaping
#britishpolitics
, alongside
@sarahoconnor_
at the Nuffield Foundation. Spoiler: it’s not all about the
#redwall
. Highlights to follow…
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John Curtice's exceptional service to public understanding of elections deserves v special recognition.
#justsaying
Prof Curtice: Not immediately obvious the Labour voters are necessarily the low-hanging fruit that you might imagine
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JOB OPPORTUNITY for a 3 year post-doc with great quant skills to work with us
@NuffieldCollege
on inequality, economic shocks and British electoral behaviour. Please spread the word:
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I was on
@itvnews
News at Ten tonight in Edinburgh. A privilege to be here, and with such a lovely team.
This is my favourite part of elections now. When the electorate holds all the secrets and will undoubtedly throw some curve balls, we now just play catch up. Good luck all.
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Lib Dems have done well in areas they used to do well in. Con have done better in leavy-areas (with no
@brexitparty_uk
). Labour's vote not clearly leave/remain split (and Labour not clearly leave/remain). People are not impressed with the two major parties (Brexit shambles).
Fascinating stuff and indicates, to me at least, that the ‘Lib Dem’s did well cos they’re anti-Brexit’ line may be something of an over simplification.
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EVENT: Are you interested in vote choice and economic insecurity, cost of living, education/ generation gaps, inequality, values, Brexit, the Red Wall? Please do join me,
@RAdeGeus
and
@sarahoconnor_
at the
@NuffieldFound
on Tuesday 24th May.
In person:
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Could I be the best looked after election analyst in the world right now?!?
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It is a huge privilege for me to work on elections and election nights with
@itvnews
@tombradby
and all the team, and a highlight for me to explain, before the results came in, WHY we could get the outcome we did last night:
So the UK has a new government, but how did
@UKLabour
achieve such a majority in the
#GeneralElections2024
?
@ProfJaneGreen
explained on
@itvnews
last night, when the landslide result was looking likely:
🔴Labour's vote was more efficiently spread out
🗳️Tactical voting – allowed
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Edinburgh this morning from the top of Arthur’s Seat. Such an utterly beautiful city.
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Eight weeks since covid and I can sing again 🥳. Still waiting for various other things, but progress!
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‘Trump vs Biden: The Results’ this Tuesday w/
@tombradby
. I really can’t overstate the importance of this election. I’ll be in the London studio analysing the results with
@jon_mellon
in the US. Big week for us all. Stay safe.
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Alastair Stewart is a kind, generous gent, and takes huge pride in getting it right. He has been very kind to me, and I'm so upset to see his ITV News career ending this way. Surely we can all make mistakes - unintended - apologise, and crack on...
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Since this is here, I think a large amount of this election was about competence. Delivery over preferences. Getting a deal. Managing the party. Taking control. Showing strength. Of course that's mixed in with leaving the EU, but PM also kept Cons remainers (for several reasons).
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Why has so much changed so quickly in GB elections? The result of long term volatility and Electoral Shocks. I venture that you can’t properly understand
#GE2019
without it. Out now!
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Feeling sorry for all the non-UK elections academics who lose out on the abundant thrill of imminent possible election announcements and can focus on their work.
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Watching the vaccine numbers has felt joyous but other-worldly. A miracle happening to other people. But tomorrow one of my parents gets the vaccine, and I am so grateful to all the amazing scientists who have accomplished this, and to everyone who has made it possible!
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Great practice here to show error margins.
Please remember these show Cons *potentially* closer to Labour, Reform *potentially* neck and neck with Conservatives, Reform *potentially* behind, or ahead of, Lib Dems.
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What a week!
Interviews for
@itvnews
, loads of meetings, Manchester for leader debate,
@BritPollingCncl
conference, home and work with
@jrf_uk
,
@BESResearch
, filming today. Tonight, Cheltenham Science Festival panel with
@daraobriain
.
Gin and tonic cocktail now in hand!
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If anyone thinks it is easy to translate academic research for non-academic audiences, they should see me labour over a very short summary of a piece of work I'm doing. Faithfully simplifying complex work in ways that won't be misinterpreted really shouldn't be underestimated.
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They weren’t responsible enough.
And they increased the salience of an issue where they were failing. And tried to maintain a coalition of voters that is too small.
End of story.
💥New! A narrative is developing around why the Conservatives lost so badly: they weren't “conservative enough”.
@ProfTimBale
argues that this diagnosis is unlikely to help the Party get back into government.
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Increasingly convinced that Scotland and Westminster on two very different paths. The depth of this, and the fact it’s under a Tory-Brexit uk govt, isn’t fully appreciated in London.
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4. Tactical voting high but not all the gains due to tactical voting predicted. Why? In the event of a Labour surge, ‘too many’ people vote Labour. And lots of uncertainty on tactical context. Think this would be picked up in the MRPs though, so I’m not convinced.
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Happy 60 years to the British Election Study!
@BESResearch
This year - also the election year - will see us mark the 60 year anniversary of the BES in several ways.
The first...do check out this new infographic!
Celebrating 60 years
@BESResearch
'an essential resource for election researchers since the 1960s'
@ProfJaneGreen
@NuffieldCollege
@OfficialUoM
@caprosser
@RoyalHolloway
@jon_mellon
@PoliSciJack
@JamesDavidGriff
@perrett_stuart
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No sleep and a couple of glasses of Prosecco, but one final thought for
#GE2019
...our
@BESResearch
book comes out today! Off for a quick snooze now.
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2. Registration. Why? Not tested yet in a GE and could, perhaps, result in some differential turnout problems. Extremely hard to know how though. Caution on interpretation needed!
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My article today in
@nature
on predicting, explanation, volatility and unexpected election outcomes:
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So pleased to see
@OpiniumResearch
do this. Income/ class overlook economic security of many (esp older, with an age divide in electoral behaviour). And overall economic security an important driver of electoral behaviour. Not just home ownership. Savings, ability to borrow, ++
This week we have also split out voting intention by current financial status.
Among those who are...
Very comfortable: Con +66
Comfortable: Con +10
Coping: Lab +11
Struggling: Lab+20
Really struggling: Lab+20
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When people say voters are uninformed about politics, I often think: Nope. People just ignore the noise.
NEW Ipsos MORI Economic optimism index shoots up as vaccine roll out continues
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They could be bang on. But it’s still worth being cautious. I, for one, am still gaming out a range of possible scenarios for election night.
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Just on the politics, this is an epic electoral gamble. Truly staggering. If the harms are as bad as predicted, if a worst case scenario for children, schools, vulnerable adults, NHS, economy (it increases caution), travel bans, vaccine resistant variant. lt changes everything.
Mass infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young
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Here we all are!
It’s going to be electrifying. Please join us on
@itvnews
Thursday 21h50.
I will be bringing explanation and interpretation. I’ll also be doing a live explainer I’m very proud of…..
@NPRCOxford
@NuffieldCollege
@UniofOxford
@BESResearch
@Politics_Oxford
Just finished rehearsing election night on ITV. Based on the scenarios we’ve just run it’s going to be a heck of a night. This is the place to watch it. If you’d told me a decade ago I’d be spending election night with
@NicolaSturgeon
and
@edballs
… but all credit to
@tombradby
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It’s illogical though…. A Tees Valley hold shouldn’t reassure, nor Birmingham, and Blackpool South is disastrous for them.
It looks increasingly like Rishi Sunak will survive
Tory rebels believed an alignment of three events was needed to get MPs over line for confidence vote:
1. Tories finishing third behind Reform in Blackpool South. In fact Tories scraped second with 117 votes.
2. Ben Houchen to
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Anyone spot anything wrong here?
Really made me smile. I’d take the royalties.
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Exactly. It’s setting the expectation for something huge, and anything less but big will - very, very bizarrely- look like relative failure/success.
Not hard to imagine a 1997 landslide being considered some kind of anti climax considering scale of what some MRP are producing.
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Early morning Oxford, sun starting to burn off dense winter fog in University Park while I celebrate having just had my booster with a stroll. This is better than Christmas morning! Very thankful.
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Can one self-designate one's home as being in Scotland?
Sturgeon “we mustn’t squander progress by easing up too soon or sending mixed messages... people will die unnecessarily. My basic message remains the same: please stay at home”
Sturgeon says from tomorrow Scots will be allowed to exercise more than once a day
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If true, awful...
(and ignorant about electoral behaviour, photo ID holding, and laws of unintended consequences).
Don’t want to go over the top, but this is absolutely jaw-dropping. Someone who was in the cabinet when legislation on voter ID was agreed and went through parliament acknowledges it WAS an attempt to gerrymander the elections
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I was curious to know why "John Curtice" was trending, and what did I find ...
It’s Election results eve tonight, so I’m putting out a mince pie and a hairbrush for Sir John Curtice, a carrot for IPSOS, and a letter asking for chopper bike, a Big Trak, and for Jacob Rees-Mogg to lose his seat.
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So much of support for independence is about nationalism, but a more competent Westminster government (vaccine) and a less competent Scottish government (disunity) is critical too.
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If you want a healthy sign of our media, worth remembering that
@itvnews
@PaulBrandITV
and whole team went all-out on the No.10 story despite it centring on a recent former valued colleague. Which is of course totally right. In contrast to some print outlets now …
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Feels like the moment to get off twitter for a few days. Well done everyone reporting on and analysing this election x
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I made a new short film yesterday, on the day the SNP launched their manifesto.
Election Matters: Does Scotland Matter? On
@ITVX
@itvnews
These are short explainers, using illustrative evidence and
@BESResearch
data. I hope they're useful.
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It goes without saying that this is absolutely appalling. I will be writing to the
@spectator
to complain. I hope others will too.
Advice for scholars: next time you lecture on Kant and revolutions at “Downing” (
@DarwinCollege
) Cambridge, make sure your hair is neatly tied and that you’re not blonde. Or else your research impact will be on the
@spectator
libido section.
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The reason why higher transmissibility is so dangerous with high vaccination rates was brilliantly explained in this Panorama special by
@DrGuddiSingh
Can’t recommend it highly enough. Also
@DoctorChrisVT
@xandvt
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Just checking that my diet of adrenaline, wine and train travel is healthy, right?!?
Keep telling myself that it will be over in a flash and I’ll be missing it all soon.
Hope everyone is doing ok x
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5. I’ll add anything else I think of. Keen to know what other think…
I aim to do a thread on ‘things that are likely to be horribly misinterpreted’ later!!
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So pleased that
@ZackG_Politics
has won a
@BritishAcademy_
Innovation Fellowship to work with
@resfoundation
on an intergenerational policy consensus!
I will be working on this with Zack and Geoff Evans
@NuffieldCollege
.
More info here:
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Tonight I was interviewed in the BBC broadcasting theatre with
@bbcnickrobinson
@amolrajan
with Peter Mandelson and Fiona Hill, followed by
@MrJamesMay
who made me smile even more than Nick Robinson’s wig did….
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And me. But for purely selfish reasons.
Last year, Labour was the party terrified of an early election. Now it's the Tories.
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I've been incessantly making the case that the electoral tide currently raises all boats.
Even this one (and GB News viewers, it also seems).
Genuinely hilarious that Labour are leading amongst Telegraph readers.
(This is the second pollster to have got this result.)
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My reward to myself for submitting work (academic papers) is to plant a tree. Just took receipt of a Bramley, eating apple, and Victoria plum. Will be the fruits of my labours... Join me! No garden? Donate one. Helping the planet one tree at a time...
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There’s going to be a big political difference this week between the Tories losing North Shropshire and the Tories experiencing a bad swing. It doesn’t make logical sense, but that doesn’t change the relative earthquake of a loss to the PM.
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This pretty much sums up my view on the contest. It’s an insight into the Tory party, but not an insight into where we’ll be 12 months from now.
@drjennings
@Samfr
@LukeTryl
To be honest, all of this just seems like a bit of a pointless exercise.
The NHS is screwed, everyone is about to be poorer, we are about to be in a BAD recession our politics is about to be completely upended.
God knows where we will be in 12 months time.
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We are delighted. Thank you
@PolStudiesAssoc
, the judges for this award, and what an honour to win an award in
@PippaN15
's name!
British Election Study team
@besresearch
awarded first ever Pippa Norris Prize
@PolStudiesAssoc
@ProfJaneGreen
@caprosser
@jon_mellon
@PoliSciJack
& Ed Fieldhouse & Geoff Evans
@NuffieldLibrary
@UniofOxford
@OfficialUoM
@Politics_Oxford
@oxsocsci
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@FromPhDtoLife
This is my mantra: Stay on the solution (do the next paragraph, page, set of analyses, etc), don't stay on the problem (thinking about what there is left to do).
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Remain parties running tally currently overtaking Brexit + UKIP.
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Geoff Evans and I
@NuffieldCollege
need some research assistance in the upcoming election year. If you are skilled in analysing election data (esp.
@BESResearch
), please consider applying. Ideally suited to a PhD student.
Retweets appreciated. Many thanks!
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One of the quieter but very important stories of last night is the LD vote share increase. Up 4.2% UK-wide, and yet currently -1 seats. Big part of Labour's lost votes. Competing against each other, but not where benefit to LD.
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I know two people (one a primary school-aged child) who either can’t have the vaccine or can’t build immunity with it, for whom covid could be lethal. They can’t ‘learn to live with the virus’. What did the government say to them today?
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1. First up. We'll only have seat shares, not reliable vote share estimates for a long time into the night. SO, any claims of polling misses on VI on the basis of the exit poll will, from the outset, not be about the VOTE SHARES, and will need to wait for vote shares.
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