Pierre
@PHfloor
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if you’ve got the data to back it up, I’m interested 💿
Joined June 2020
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This is a recently constructed 4-unit building in Ottawa.
Some might call it a 4-plex, I call it a back-to-back duplex (long-semi) with with 2 basement suites. Rear facade is same as front, all units independently accessible.
Thoughts?
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This chart shows how the mix of home buyer types in Canada 2014-2022 has changed.
Remarkable to see what happened during the Covid period where the repeat buyer came out in force in the beginning and the investor class progressively got more aggressive, crowding out the FTHB.
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This chart is for my housing bears.
It shows how mortgage rate increases impacts % of mortgages in arrears down the road. The time lag varies, but this chart is manipulated to show an arrears lag of 18-months.
Given big rate increases, a jump in arrears is likely coming.
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@RealVision
@Delphi_Digital
@pierskicks
@RaoulGMI
My god son,11 years old, lives in the metaverse. He tells me he runs a gaming shop of 300 participants worldwide and reminds me that he has responsibility to a larger group of people than I do as a manager in the real world.
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Rate of wage growth since 2015 is inversely correlated to level of education.🤣
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Listen, home prices have taken a big hit since the peak in 2022.
But prices are still substantially above trend since 2005 in my view.
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This might help with the "context" that Steve is talking about.
Among the banks, mortgages in arrears are ticking up, but from a very low base.
Mortgage delinquencies surging! They’re Up 135% in Ontario and 62% in BC. However, context matters. There are 5 million residential mortgages in Canada, 10k of which are delinquent, national arrears rate at 0.18%.
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OSFI and the BoC are telling Canadians to deleverage.
Will it be orderly or unorderly?
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Super hard to get your forecast's right at the municipal level on housing, infrastructure (physical and social) when this is happening....just saying.
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How to do missing middle. 🧵
1. Buy a house on a wide lot like this one.
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Anyone remember this interest rate hike head fake before the realities of the GFC set in?
Just interesting...
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Wow, that house price increase in the 1971-1990 period was blisteringly hot.
Over 2x faster than the 2005-2023 period.
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Unemployment rate ticking up to pre-2018 levels.
Very hard to make the case for work-based immigration at this point.
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For my bear friends.
Why are arrears so low given the rate of change on mortgage rates?
Maybe because there is a lag.
Chart shows 5YR conventional mortgage rates and arrears rates.
Mortgage rates pulled forward 23-month to simulate the lag.
Is this time different?
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This chart shows the percentage of aggregate household income required to service the mortgage interest portion of mortgage debt over time.
52% higher since covid low
14% higher than pre GFC
Rate hikes are inflationary.
This has got to hurt some households out there.
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@jonfavs
@PodSaveAmerica
Yes, it is possible to handle a weather related emergency worse than George Bush.
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@twephen
@RobMcLister
The market is pricing shorter duration bond yields (2 years) at a higher rate than longer duration bonds (10 years) by a lot, making the cost of borrowing money for the short-term higher than the long-term. This is unusual. The reverse is normally the case.
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This is just a hunch, but my sense is 1/3 of Canadians are doing exceptionally well and are driving everything from asset appreciation, inflation and consumer consumption.
The other 2/3 are facing a wide spectrum of hardship.
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@TaviCosta
ADP released today confirms what you are observing although I’d hesitate to refer to the jobs as “unskilled”.
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WTF are banks doing with this amortization extensions crap?
They are letting highly leveraged risk takers off the hook.
They are letting young family homebuyers who scraped everything they had to get a place to live in now off the hook.
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Canada is resource rich, yet ratio of people employed in the sector vs all industries is dropping.
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Can one logically hold both these views?
1) Too much of Canada's investment ends up in real estate
2) There is a housing shortage and more resources need to be marshaled to address the problem
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I can’t tell if we are in the midst of a roaring 20s era or if we are on the precipice of a catastrophic collapse.
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I know I'm going to take some heat for this one...
My new hobby will be to post interesting productivity data from Table: 36-10-0480-01 every time I come across a productivity post on X.
Today's version: Canada's central bank.
What happened in 2006?
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Gentle reminder that Canada performs terribly on this metric.
Home prices are way too high relative to their economic value.
Banks would never lend to CRE sponsors with this kind of value vs economic return spreads.
The banks and consumers have normalized this in Canada.
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I hope
@ScrinkoCa
doesn't hate me for this, but this ranks as one of the best posts of the year so far.
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@chair13
@DiMartinoBooth
@biancoresearch
@uscensusbureau
Pent up demand, low mortgage interest rates, low inventory, housing market participants were not victimized by the pandemic, hard assets such as housing are a store of value in an inflationary environment.
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Canada may be getting poorer, but not on this metric.
Yes, home prices....
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Folks you can't hold both these views without suffering the ill-effects of cognitive dissonance:
"Pandemic stimulus unfairly cranked up asset values and unearned capital gains"
"It's unfair for the government to now tap into those unearned gains with tax increases"
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There were 759 bankruptcies/proposals Canada-wide in Jan 2024.
This is how it breaks out by industry.
🇨🇦 it’s “too early to talk cuts”, though.
(Chart via excellent Econ team at National)
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Fastest home price appreciation for first 5 months of the year.
Second fastest home price appreciation in a consecutive 4-month period.
Jun - Sep '20: 19.79%
Feb - May '23: 17.86%
I know, May is old news now.
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What do you guys think the trajectory of home prices will be for the remainder of the year?
2022 was ugly, even worse than in 2008 during GFC.
2009 saw a huge rebound in prices.
We are seeing a big rebound in early part of 2023.
What's next?
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The loudest, most prolific, most influential housing policy "experts" are comfortably housed, usually in expensive single-family homes in nice neighborhoods.
I wonder why that is?
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@daniel_foch
If we counted the number of unused bedrooms as supply in Canada, the numbers would be staggering.
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This chart shows Canada's home price index overlaid on a heat map of Canada's relative unemployment rate over the chart timeframe.
Doesn't tell us anything about the future, only what happened in the past.
Just fun to play around with data visualization.
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@daniel_foch
Wow.
When inflation was this hot in Canada in the late 80's the overnight target rate was averaging something like 11.5%
After today's 100b point increase the target rate is :
2.5%
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Ottawa fourplex.
This one is interesting in that it's got a shared drive.
Cars park below building at first floor.
Does this work?
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Next in a long list of complaints coming...
Precon investors: we got rug-pulled by the Feds reducing immigration and student numbers
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@BenRabidoux
Homes in Canada trade like meme stocks, up 150K since pre-pandemic, down 150K since pandemic frenzy top.
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@DiMartinoBooth
@danjmcnamara
@Stimpyz1
@business
If you are implying that this is the tip of the iceberg, and that office in general is under pressure by both deteriorating cap rates and underperforming occupancy, you are probably right...✔️
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Probably will get some heat for this.
US has way better cities than Canada.
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Why did housing starts skyrocket when population tanked a few years back and starts pulled back when population went through the roof last year?
Because it's not about expat population growth, it's about home price momentum and price-fueled speculative demand.
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Canada household net worth ticking up again in Q1.
Not surprising really.
Nearing $17T
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@rohindhar
Quick look at different cities.
But as we know, it's not about city, it's about neighborhood.
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Pretty much a three-year sideways move on median home prices across GTA.
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Wife: why do you post so many charts?
Me: I like them and I think other people do too
Wife: you know that that only represent the past and have no predictive value
Me: but I like them
Wife: get a life and contribute more to our HH income
Me
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Canadians hoping for 5yr bond yield relief in 2024 aren't getting it yet...
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That mortgage interest cost line is a trip..
Presumably many folks hoping that red line starts dropping below zero again soon...
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@RolandStautz
@LynAldenContact
Definitely, you can eat it, drink it, clothe yourself in it, live in it and power your car with it. Hardest most useful thing ever created...
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Goldilocks scenario for the Canadian housing market:
Flat prices
Lower mortgage costs
Robust transaction activity
Deflation in construction costs
Steady supply pipeline
Can we do it?
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@NorthmanTrader
$AAPL trades 381% higher today than it did in 2015 even though net income has remained about the same.
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This chart shows the MoM change in total residential mortgage debt in Canada.
Interesting how it contracted in late 2018, early 2019.
While mortgage debt growth has clearly slowed recently, nearing zero, it has stayed positive and ticked up in Feb '23.
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Prices contractors charge to build residential building are up 3.8% QoQ in Toronto per StatCan release yesterday.
Residential buildings construction price index was at 111.7 in Q2 2020. It is now at 195.5.😳
Does this even make sense?
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How much lower can it go Ontario?
No other province looks any where near this bad.
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@daniel_foch
They buy billboard advertising to put up a massive, overly visible photo of themselves...even if they aren't that good looking...
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Two ways we have a recession:
We collectively decide to have one.
or
A black swan event (something that comes out of nowhere, not on our radar screens, is unknowable, unforeseeable) hits us.
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@NorthmanTrader
This is where the CBs failed. They could not get people back on planes, they could not get them back in restaurants or hotels and ensuring credit availability did not lead to employment-generating CAPEX or OPEX. If anything, the pandemic taugh us how we can live with less.
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