Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader
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Founder: NorthmanTrader. Financial Market Strategist. Macro & Technical Analysis. Keeping it real. To subscribe: https://t.co/rmRFFvMRaH…
England, United Kingdom
Joined July 2012
The Cynic's Guide to Markets:. While 2024 may be fraught with some chop and corrective activity the conclusion for 2025 appears already scripted: Big new market highs are coming.
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September 18, 2024: 50bp rate cut.September 18, 2007: 50bp rate cut.
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Fed official reacting to real time economic developments
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Our childhood was a lie:.They kept showing us the same movie making us think it was new.
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Looks like Ukraine kicked some butt. Time lapse of Ukraine counter attack in Kharkiv
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Imagine you're $32,000 in debt and have only $87 left in your bank account. That's the US government right now. But you got a AAA credit rating. 😂.
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When you know you need to take a break from charting 😂. Have a good weekend everyone.
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You know we've reached a unique time in history when #Bitcoin suddenly is less volatile than fiat currencies.
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Guess who just borrowed nearly half a trillion dollars in just 2 weeks.
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THERE IS NO SIGN OF A BROADER SLOWDOWN IN THE ECONOMY
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@elonmusk @vincent13031925 The Fed stayed too easy for too long totally misreading inflation and now they've tightened aggressively into the highest debt construct ever without accounting for the lag effects of these rate hikes risking they'll be again late to realize the damage done.
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Working hard on getting monkeypox & Covid as a double pack. 😂. Great show! @davido 🇳🇬.#rototom2022 🇪🇸
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Imagine hiking rates like mad and showing zero progress on inflation.
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How easily our minds are deceived. Nothing is moving in this gif, only the colors are changing, but that's enough to convince our minds there is movement. Even when you know nothing is moving. Impressive.
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Japan recession. UK recession. China, Germany in trouble. Bezos dumping $4B in $AMZN.Buffett reducing $AAPL. Retail: Let's 0DTE chase every vertical tech play we can find.
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Maxed out the credit card on the last day as she leaves the building. Classic.
US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: THE TREASURY WILL BEGIN USING EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES ON JANUARY 21.
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Imagine having nearly 400 PhDs in economics & 18,000 people on the payroll for an annual salary expense of $2.6 billion with 2 mandates: Full employment & price stability and then getting inflation completely wrong & thinking you don't owe anyone an explanation. h/t .@hkuppy
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Central banks are now the primary cause of financial instability.
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PMI came in at 45, housing is collapsing as is manufacturing data. The personal savings rate has collapsed, credit card debt is exploding. 37% of small businesses are behind on their rent. Don't tell me the consumer is strong & there is no recession in sight.
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Negative GDP growth, bear market, inflation, 130% debt to GDP and rate hikes. None of us have ever witnessed this.
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$MSFT -8% $GOOGL -9% $META -20% $AMZN -20%. "The economy is strong & resilient".
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Sell offs are no problem if you are diversified with the right stock picks. Oh.
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When you bought your Tesla Model X at the beginning of the year for $120K and now see the new pricing at $79.9K just 8 months later.
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They literally have to raise rates into a complete meltdown. Well done.
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Oh that robot dog is so cute they said. But deep inside you all knew where this was going.
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Fed: We'll save you from inflation by making you poor and unemployed.
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BREAKING: Fed's balance sheet expands by $14B since last week after expanding by $3B the week before.
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Just raise by 200bp tomorrow and get the recession over with so we can go back to rate cuts and QE.
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I once considered moving to a developing economy but decided 10% inflation and a 20% currency collapse was too unstable so I decided to move to the UK instead. Joke’s on me.
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Fact check: False.
Tesla has 💎 🙌.
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BREAKING: The 🇪🇺 Eurozone enters recession.
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The economy is so hot companies have to make layoff announcements every day.
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Weird how 2 consecutive quarter declines in GDP was a recession each time except this time.
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ECB cuts rates while increasing its inflation forecast. Perfect.
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First they created a massive asset bubble leaving the poor in the dust pricing them out of the housing market. Then they crushed the poor with inflation.Next the poor will be the first to lose their jobs as they tighten into a recession. What exactly is the role of the Fed?.
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There are too many idiots running countries on this planet.
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After extensive analysis I've decided to upgrade my $SPX year end target to 8,000.
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So they hiked themselves right into a banking crisis while peddling a soft landing narrative forcing them to intervene before they even got to a pause. Once again the Fed has shown itself to be utterly oblivious to the risks right under its nose. The incompetence is stunning.
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The final rallies before recessions are always the most fun. Watch what happens once inflation relief turns into realization as to why inflation is dropping.
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We beat inflation by giving a $7500 EV tax credit and Ford raising prices on EVs by $8500.
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Welcome to Fed day where an unelected committee decides the value of your 401Ks. We call this capitalism.
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Every hedge fund manager that expected new lows & now sees futures relentlessly squeezing higher week after week.
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Nothing reveals the true state of capitalism more then seeing billionaires tweet begging for immediate government intervention this weekend.
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Whatever happens: They're gonna print so much money.
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Hear me out: The Fed is done & may actually have to cut rates sooner than anybody expects. Here's why:. The US government's torrid debt spree ($600B+) in just the past month alone has exacerbated the move in yields due to supply/demand imbalances. As inflation has been coming
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BREAKING: Jay Powell to receive Nobel Prize in Economics for researching inflation.
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Powell:.If I don't raise rates I lose all credibility.If I raise by 25bp financial conditions may loosen further & I lose all credibility.If I raise by 50bp all our previous guidance turns out to have been wrong & I lose all credibility. So I do 25 & talk mean & hope that works.
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The last time the 2 year yield hit 4% was on October 17, 2007. US debt was $9 trillion in Q4 2007. US debt now stands at $30.5 trillion as of Q2. 61% debt to GDP in 2007 vs 122% debt to GDP now.
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First we print like mad producing record wealth inequality & sky rocket the cost of housing, then we you get you to max out your credit cards to make ends meet during inflation & then we tighten until companies fire you leaving you unemployed. We, the Fed, are here to help.
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Fed March 22: WE WILL KEEP REDUCING THE BALANCE SHEET AS PLANNED. Increases balance sheet by another $93B during the week for a total of almost 400B in 2 weeks.
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Does anyone actually believe this number?. Consensus was 150K btw.
U.S. job creation totaled 254,000 in September, much better than expected
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Interest on debt goes: Weeeeeeeee. Larger than the entire yearly US military budget now. But let's keep raising rates while peddling a soft landing narrative.
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Soft landing means the top 1% gets record stock prices while you get stuck with the most unaffordable housing market ever, permanent price increases & record credit card debt. But you get to keep your job and have to work longer to pay it all off.
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Powell: The consumer is in really good shape financially.
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Fun fact:.Next week the Fed will cut rates for the first time this cycle on September 18. It was the same day, September 18, the Fed first cut rates in 2007.
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Inside Powell's brain:. If I raise by the 50 I signalled I will blow things up.If I raise by 25 I may still blow things up.If I don't raise I lose credibility.If I cut I look like I panicked & may blow things up.
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Bezos, Zuck, Dimon selling shares. Retail yolo’ing calls.
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