@tonytmg @MtgLogicNews Mexico's inflation rate is starting to dive (fast) to 4yr lows. And, the Mexican peso has held up much better than the Canadian peso since tariffnado first touched down on Nov. 25. This, plus a contracting economy in Q4, give Banxico more reason to cut.

Not much going on today in the rate market. Just your run-of-the-mill 20 bps crash in 5yr yields. But low-rate enthusiasts best shelve their 3% mortgage dreams for now. The 5yr yield spectacularly rallied all the way back—closing up 1 bp after Trump postponed tariffs 30 days.

@frankgreco1 Best nationally advertised are P-1.1 (insured) and P-0.7 (uninsured). You'll find regional players and banks even lower, especially for bigger loans.

@trueneutral12 Thanks for following. Wish I could post on all of them, and more often, but time is scarce as it is.

@Zachz369733 Lots go into variable discounts, including but not limited to deposit rates, covered bond yields, CMB and MBS yields, short-term borrowing rates, credit spreads and risk premia, floating-rate demand, regulatory capital factors and ROE objectives.

@DStephanishin Hi Dawn, As of September 30, 2024, CMHC reported insurance-in-force of $431 billion, well below its legislated limit of $600 billion.

@wgibson58 @nationalpost @ConradMBlack Thanks @wgibson58. Simile malfunction. Can't even blame autocorrect on that one. Next, I'll be saying, "Houston, we have a pizza problem."

@tonytmg Yeah, and the BoC removed forward rate guidance because the outlook is clear as mud. For now, post-Fed announcement, our 5yr yield is up 5 bps from today's lows.

Relationship mortgage pricing has been a thing for decades. But never before have some banks sacrificed margins to this degree—hoping they'll make it up at renewal and by selling you other stuff. Lenders who only sell mortgages are in a tough spot. More:

@jasonbenner @bankofcanada You're very kind. Truth is, some are value-added and more prescient than others, but most are overpaid professional hindsight specialists.

@st0ckm0nster @bankofcanada The loonie (CAD/USD) is rallying for now because the Bank took out messaging about further cuts.

@shdwbnkr @daniel_foch @financialpost Ouch. If you found this story groundbreaking, wait for my next piece: “Mortgages have interest rates.” You’ll love it.

The Trump/Republican sweep may ultimately limit the downside for fixed mortgage rates if Canada can negotiate out of tariffs. (Trump does deal on tariffs, and we're America's 2nd biggest trading partner.) One election takeaway: Fixed rates can go up while variable rates go down.

@therobcampbell I'm guessing Carolyn is opposed to willing a mortgage to your heirs.

Mortgage market risks and the housing market's impact on inflation could also be on the agenda.

We'll likely get an update on mortgage stress test changes and the new loan-to-income (LTI) limits, or perhaps a potential surprise.