MVRed Podcast
@MVRedPodcast
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Ohio’s Political Podcast // Catholic, Conservative // Find us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and iHeart // Interviews mvredpodcast @gmail .com
Youngstown, OH
Joined May 2019
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Pinned Tweet
Episode
#45
of the MVRed Podcast is LIVE on YouTube / Twitch. We will talk about the state of the race. We will also take a dive into the polls and EV data which are looking favorable to Trump! Join us!
YouTube Live Stream:
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BREAKING:
Donald Trump has won Trumbull County in Northeast Ohio 54.48% to 44.12%. This is a BIGGER win than 2016.
@LarrySchweikart
Source:
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1K
In anticipation of the post-debate polls, friendly reminder of how the post-debate polls looked after each debate in 2016 (hint: Clinton ahead in all) cc:
@RyanGirdusky
Debate 1:
CNN: Clinton won 62/27
PPP: Clinton won 51/40
YouGov: Clinton won 57/30
Politico: Clinton won 49/26
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264
750
Was Biden +12 in Ohio, down to Biden +6 in Ohio. Again this will tighten quite a bit. 3 polls in our modeling showed around 48-50% of Republicans would vote on Election Day which explains this discrepancy in reporting.
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@InfidelAngela
@Barnes_Law
This grassroots event in a suburb of Youngstown, OH today had more people 😂
Another big "Honk for Trump" event taking place in Austintown, OH this afternoon at Route 46 / Mahoning Ave. Clinton carried this suburb of Youngstown, OH in 2016 (50% - 46%). For the GOP to flip Mahoning, winning Austintown will be key!
@NEOTrumpVictory
@JaredBorg
@MahoningGOP
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Also worth mentioning Mahoning County (Youngstown) just to the south of Trumbull.
2018 Governor: DEM = 25,848 // GOP = 13,033
2022 Governor: DEM = 14,543 // GOP = 20,510
cc:
@kkondik
@HotlineJosh
@Peoples_Pundit
Primary turnout story in realigning Obama-to-Trump Ohio. Trumbull County (Warren: NE Ohio post-industrial): 2018 gov primary turnout 20.2k D to 11.4k R edge; tonight, 17.5k R to 14.5k D edge (appears to be almost all in)
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Watch the entire thing from start to finish.
@JackPosobiec
has some good reminders for all of us.
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"So what I would say to Republicans: Don't seek approval from these people They don't like you. They will smear you. They will attack you. The way to win is to fight back and not take it anymore Don't let these people set the agenda for our party anymore."
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Just a note on the PA early vote ballots returned on TargetSmart. 55.5% (282,465/508,334) of the returned ballot total on that site currently are from Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties. In 2016, those two counties represented just 22% of the entire ballots cast in the state.
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𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗣𝗢𝗟𝗟 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗥𝗧!
AtlasIntel (
@NateSilver538
"A" Pollster")
𝗛𝟮𝗛
Trump: 50.9%
Harris: 48%
𝗙𝗨𝗟𝗟 𝗙𝗜𝗘𝗟𝗗
Trump: 50.9%
Harris: 47.3%
Other/Don't Know: 1.9%
1,775LV // 2% MOE // 9/11-9/12
Link:
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First the Lincoln Project, now Critical Race Theory. Girdusky has been a major voice in this effort to stop CRT by dismantling it from the ground up (local school boards up to state legislatures). Don’t stop
@RyanGirdusky
!
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BREAKING - THIS IS A BIG ONE!
With 100% reporting, DONALD J. TRUMP has carried MAHONING COUNTY 50.27% to 48.34%.
This county has not gone to the Republicans since 1972. Huge win for the GOP!
@LarrySchweikart
@Barnes_Law
@Peoples_Pundit
Source:
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@JackPosobiec
Jack. We will be interviewing one of your favorite pollsters Rich Baris Friday evening at 815pm/et to discuss Ohio polling. If you like polling and want to hear from one of the most transparent in the industry, be sure to tune in on our FB Live/Follow on Twitter.
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@JackPosobiec
We received a flyer in the mail today about not voting absentee from the Ohio GOP, although my wife already has submitted her ballot. I am voting Election Day.
#Ohio
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@Mark_R_Mitchell
In anticipation of the Big Harris flash poll wins:
In anticipation of the post-debate polls, friendly reminder of how the post-debate polls looked after each debate in 2016 (hint: Clinton ahead in all) cc:
@RyanGirdusky
Debate 1:
CNN: Clinton won 62/27
PPP: Clinton won 51/40
YouGov: Clinton won 57/30
Politico: Clinton won 49/26
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Another big "Honk for Trump" event taking place in Austintown, OH this afternoon at Route 46 / Mahoning Ave. Clinton carried this suburb of Youngstown, OH in 2016 (50% - 46%). For the GOP to flip Mahoning, winning Austintown will be key!
@NEOTrumpVictory
@JaredBorg
@MahoningGOP
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In a poll conducted entirely before the first Presidential Debate, EPIC-MRA finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in Michigan by 4% in a H2H matchup, while leading by 3% when third party candidates are included.
Poll Link:
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Who do you believe would have a better chance of winning the Electoral College in the 2024 General Election against President Biden (or VP Harris)... Former President Trump or Florida Governor DeSantis?
Feel free to reply to this tweet with the thinking behind your choice.
Trump
1276
DeSantis
2102
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Hey
@JackPosobiec
- Our live stream of our podcast with Pollster Rich Baris (
@Peoples_Pundit
) is LIVE.
Click Here:
We are talking about polling in the Great State of Ohio and why polls are all over the map!
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As of 10/16/2024:
Top 5 Counties vs. 2020 OH Total Vote Share:
🔴Warren +1.15%
🔴Medina +0.62%
🔴Butler +0.56%
🔴Richland +0.55%
🔴Greene +0.51%
Worst 5 Counties vs. 2020 OH Total Vote Share:
🔵Franklin -3.44%
🔵Cuyahoga -3.18%
🔵Montgomery -2.32%
🔵Summit -.89%
🔵Lucas -.75%
OH Early Vote Update🗳️:
☑️As of 10/16/2024, 551,001 ballots have been cast.
☑️Cuyahoga EV is 7.39% of OH total, down from 10.57% in 2020.
☑️Franklin EV is 7.22% of OH total, down from 10.66% in 2020.
☑️Hamilton EV is at 7.38% of OH total, up from 7.26% in 2020.
1/
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OH Early Vote Update🗳️:
☑️As of 10/15/2024, 433,662* ballots have been cast.
☑️Cuyahoga EV is 5.04% of OH total, down from 10.57% in 2020.
☑️Franklin EV is 6.77% of OH total, down from 10.66% in 2020.
☑️Hamilton EV is at 8.35% of OH total, up from 7.26% in 2020.
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@CalebJHull
I got OH covered... Much of this is ABS/EV and big Dem numbers out of Cleveland and Columbus.
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As of 10/17/2024:
Top 5 Counties vs. 2020 OH Total Vote Share:
🔴Warren +1.23%
🔴Medina +.59%
🔵Hamilton +.45%
🔴Richland +.45%
🔴Fairfield +.45%
Worst 5 Counties vs. 2020 OH Total Vote Share:
🔵Cuyahoga -3.25%
🔵Franklin -2.88%
🔵Montgomery -1.92%
🔵Summit -1.25%
🔵Lucas -.75%
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OH Early Vote Update🗳️:
-As of 10/9/2024, 113,342 ballots have been cast.
-As a % of total statewide vote, when compared with 2020:
☑️Cuyahoga EV is 4.67% of statewide total, down from 10.57% in 2020.
☑️Franklin EV is 7.23% of statewide total, down from 10.66% in 2020.
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🚨2020 RUST BELT POLLING THREAD🚨
Rather than ranking each pollster by just their last poll in the field, I averaged out all their polls from Sept-Nov 2020 in the Rust Belt... 1/
cc:
@chriswithans
@RyanGirdusky
@mitchellvii
@RedEaglePatriot
@QPollsandnews
@JackPosobiec
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OHIO ISSUE 1 UPDATE: Republicans have shaved the early/absentee vote edge the Democrats have from 52-40% on Tuesday down to 50-41% on Friday per the latest L2 Data. If the GOP can have their traditional E-Day turnout advantage, we could have a tight finish on Issue 1.
@MVRedPodcast
@AndrewJTobias
Good Morning
@MVRedPodcast
I was about to head out for a run but I thought I would respond to you first. Check back Monday for a larger breakdown.
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Much of the area in dark blue in the 17th is now red in Trumbull and Portage County!
2008 Ohio US House elections by precinct. This is the last time democrats won a majority of seats and popular vote in Ohio.
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Debate 3:
Politico: Clinton won 43/26
NBC: Clinton won 46/37
ABC: Clinton won 52/29
Gallup: Clinton won 60/31
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@Outkick
@ClayTravis
After allowing Jemele Hill spew her liberal propaganda for as long as they did, it makes you wonder if anyone outspoken with a right leaning point of view would last long at all over there?
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Debate 2:
CNN: Clinton won 57/35
Politico: Clinton won 42/28
NBC: Clinton won 44/34
Reuters: Clinton won 53/42
Gallup: Clinton won 53/35
Fox News: Clinton won 52/39
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@Peoples_Pundit
@VisionsViews
@Timcast
As a CPA, can attest Vision is exactly right. A full look at the returns would provide a full explanation of why some years he paid nothing in tax, but the Dems don't care about that. They care about their "bombshell" talking points.
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In my opinion, the only way Yes has any shot is with a huge turnout of GOP voters casting their ballots for Yes today. The Yes side needs a massive turnout of the rural OH vote to offset the big deficits they will face in urban OH. Get as many GOPers you know to the polls today!
𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 #𝟮 - 𝗬𝗲𝘀 𝗘𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗢𝘂𝘁 𝗩𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆
Yes - 50.3%
No - 47.7%
Comments: In recent OH elections, the GOP has had a considerable advantage in Election Day turnout. With the Yes spending $ at the finish, they may be able to turn out enough GOP voters for Yes.
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“Youngstown State University political science professor Paul Sracic is among those wondering if the models are accurate.” Solid read
@Peoples_Pundit
/
@Barnes_Law
citing well respected political professor at my Alma Mater YSU, Paul Sracic.
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The Franklin County GOP (Columbus, OH) endorses
@MikeDeWine
and
@dolan4ohio
in the Gubernatorial and US Senate Primaries.
Not too surprised with DeWine, but Dolan earning the endorsement on the Senate side is a big win for him. Would have expected Timken (former OH GOP Chair).
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Tune in! This program is far more informative than most of what you will find on the cable news shows!
Watch Live 2:00PM EST —
@Barnes_Law
and I discuss the latest polling data in the Rust Belt, and much more!
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We are happy to announce that Rich Baris (
@Peoples_Pundit
) will be joining the MVRed Podcast tomorrow evening at 8:15pm on Facebook Live to discuss 2020 Election Polling in the Great State of Ohio! We hope you plan to join us tomorrow evening.
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Caller on Dan Rivers Show on 570 WKBN waited 40 minutes to vote this morning in a rural Mahoning County voting location near Columbiana. Impressive for a special election.
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Mahoning Valley Red!
Massive crowd in Youngstown, Ohio awaits the arrival of President Trump 🇺🇸 Big speech at 7 PM EST...
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Thanks to a great new feature on the NPR website, we can see contributions to each Presidential campaign by county. Trump has raised over $1 million in the Mahoning Valley to just $193k for Biden.
h/t
@Barnes_Law
cc:
@dskolnick
@LindsayWFMJ
Source:
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@Peoples_Pundit
Rich - those last 40 minutes for Trump were strong. He connected well with the audience who asked fair questions in my eyes. Solid performance! And trust me, I feared it could be bad.
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@berniemoreno
@TimRyan
Niners are owned by the DeBartolo/York family (think shopping malls) from Youngstown. Next time you are in Mahoning County, you will find this about 90 seconds north of
@MahoningGOP
on Route 7 in Boardman:
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OH Early Vote Update🗳️:
-As of 10/14/2024, 327,876* ballots have been cast.
☑️Cuyahoga EV is 6.23% of statewide total, down from 10.57% in 2020.
☑️Franklin EV is 7.01% of statewide total, down from 10.66% in 2020.
☑️6 of 7 counties Biden won have a lower share of vote vs. 2020.
OH Early Vote Update🗳️:
-As of 10/10/2024, 165,756 ballots have been cast.
☑️Cuyahoga EV is 4.34% of statewide total, down from 10.57% in 2020.
☑️Franklin EV is 7.25% of statewide total, down from 10.66% in 2020.
☑️5 of 7 counties Biden won have a lower share of vote vs. 2020.
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@BuckSexton
@clayandbuck
CNN analyst stated Walz was unprepared for Vance tonight in this initial segment with Tapper
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Tremendous work by
@matthuffman1
and
@ElectMattDolan
on delivering universal school choice in this new budget for Ohioans! We just need
@GovMikeDeWine
to seal the deal with his signature in the coming days!
#schoolchoice
@DeAngelisCorey
@dtoneil
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𝗢𝗵𝗶𝗼 𝗜𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲 𝟭 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲:
We just received an update from
@L2political
projecting the Early Vote/Absentee Electorate. As a result, here are 3 models I put together for tomorrow:
1) Most Likely Scenario - No wins by 4-5%
2) Yes Ekes out Victory
3) No Wins in a Blowout
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🚨2020 PENNSYLVANIA POLLING 🚨
@trafalgar_group
,
@SusquehannaPR
, and
@Mark_R_Mitchell
performed strong in PA in 2020, all polling within 1% of the eventual margin. Like in OH,
@QuinnipiacPoll
performed the worst in PA, with a 7.8% miss. 3/
Biden won PA by 1.2%.
@barnes_law
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@EricLDaugh
I'd be stunned if she wins. I don't see her within 3-5%. Better GOP pickups in rust belt.
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Just signed an order to support the workers of Delphi Corporation and make sure that we protect the pensions of all American workers! Obama-Biden FAILED American workers and FAILED the workers of Delphi. I ALWAYS put American workers FIRST!
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The Youngstown toplines of this OH poll shows JD Vance up on Tim Ryan 49-41% and Mike DeWine up on Nan Whaley 54-37% in the Greater Youngstown Metro area!
#MahoningValleyRed
LINK:
Ohio Senate:
Vance (R) 47% (+3)
Ryan (D) 44%
.
Ohio Governor:
DeWine (R-inc) 55% (+18)
Whaley (D) 37%
.
@cygnal
, 1,540 LV, 10/16-20
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@djjohnso
@Nate_Cohn
You forgot Ohio. Didn't they have Biden up 1 here and he lost my state by 8... a 9 point miss?
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Worth noting that in
#OH13
@RepHagan
raised just shy of $500k in Q3 & her campaign reports it has more cash on hand right now than Tim Ryan's camp. Internals show it as a single digit race & Ryan is advertising a ton on TV. Ryan not acting like he is at 99%. cc:
@RyanGirdusky
ICYMI: Ten of Ohio's 16 U.S. House incumbents have greater than a 99% likelihood of being reelected. Five have at least an 89% chance, the result of a carefully crafted congressional map that all but ensures uncompetitive elections throughout the state.
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🚨2020 RUST BELT POLLING - THE WORST 🚨
@QuinnipiacPoll
was dead last in OH/PA. They did not poll WI/MI.
NY Times/Siena was 2nd worst in OH, 3rd worst in PA/WI, and mid-pack in MI.
ABC/Wash Post was dead last in WI, 2nd worst in PA. However, they did finish T-2nd in MI. 7/
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@mviser
I remember when it virtually tied in 2016 too and when they said Richard Cordray would be my Governor....
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🚨2020 OHIO POLLING 🚨
For the 2nd straight cycle, pollsters struggled in OH as they overestimated the Dem support.
@trafalgar_group
ranked the best with a 3.7% miss in their two polls, but the remaining pollsters all missed by at least 8.5% in 2020. 2/
Trump won OH by 8.2%.
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@Peoples_Pundit
@JoeBiden
@KamalaHarris
I hope the Trump campaign has been hammering those clips all across Western PA, especially near the massive cracker plant they are building on the OH River in Monaca, PA outside of Pittsburgh. That will be a huge factor in W. PA, WV Panhandle, and NE OH.
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@PpollingNumbers
So Pennsylvania all of a sudden is 4 points to the LEFT of the United States according to both polls posted this morning by NYTimes/Siena. Does anyone actually believe that?
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Mahoning County has a noticeably high # of No on Issue 1 signs, even in parts of inner-city Youngstown on the North Side. Gives me some hope
@GabeGuidarini
!
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OH has been dead for quite some time but again, expect that the Biden lead will dwindle once Election Day vote comes in...
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@PpollingNumbers
If Trump is ahead or tied in the popular vote come Election Day, he is poised to win the Electoral College convincingly. We explain why in our most recent podcast:
Episode
#41
of the MVRed Podcast is now up on Spotify and your favorite podcast streaming apps. We talked in depth about Biden dropping out, Kamala's chances, the JD Vance pick, and the current state of the Electoral College. Please tune in and share!
🎧:
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@Wizard_Predicts
Barring something unforeseen, don’t see a conceivable path for Trump to win AZ with these percentages in Maricopa. Wish I was wrong, but just giving you my honest assessment.
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Be sure to tune in to our podcast from this week where we toom a deep dive into the current polling scene!
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Based on these figures, I'd say
#YesOnIssue1
needs 2.2 million total votes (or around 1.5 million Election Day votes) to have a fighting chance at eeking out a victory. The No side is certainly favored, so the Yes side needs a big GOP turnout unified at voting Yes tomorrow.
According to Secretary of State data, 696,906 Ohioans have already voted in this year's August special election, a turnout (so far) of 8.7%, slightly above the 8.0% turnout seen in the entirety of 2022's August primary.
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🚨2020 WISCONSIN POLLING 🚨
@SusquehannaPR
and
@trafalgar_group
performed strong in WI in 2020, both in top 2 like they were in PA, with each polling within 1.3% of the eventual margin. Fueled by their Biden +17% poll, ABC/Wash Post had a miss of 10.8%! 4/
Biden won WI by 0.7%.
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@JackPosobiec
Thought it was a strong performance Jack. In our region of the Rust Belt, some undecideds will have to weigh that Biden answer on oil.
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Tonight at 9pm we are thrilled to announce that
@RyanGirdusky
will be on our show to discuss the latest political news, with a focus on the
#OH13
match-up between Congressman Tim Ryan (D) and
@RepHagan
(R). The show will be available on Facebook Live, Periscope, and YouTube.
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@Barnes_Law
Good luck taking Lawrence County on the border of OH and in particular Youngstown.
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Columbiana County “Election Day” Vote went 65-36% for Yes.
The GOP candidate won the Election Day vote there by 75-25% in 2022 and 82-17% in 2020.
As you can see, the rural vote did not come out anywhere near as strong as the Yes side needed which will factor into No’s % win.
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Congratulations to
@mpukita
for making the ballot in the GOP US Senate Primary. Mark was the first US Senate guest on our podcast, which you can hear here:
Ohio Secretary of State’s office releases list statewide candidates qualified for the May primary. This isn’t the certified list (that’s next week). GOP US Senate race is down to 7 candidates. And a Republican running for Secretary of State, Terpsehore Maras, didn’t qualify
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@ryanmatsumoto1
@HotlineJosh
True - but remember. Biden is already up 53k votes there, so you would likely be adding at least another 110-115k to get to that margin. Will be quite tight - also some other counties still outstanding.
#2020
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@EricLDaugh
17% to the right of the nation??? Seems a bit extreme. Would anticipate GA showing more movement toward Trump if this were accurate.
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Was glad to hear Bishop David Bonner ask all priests of the Roman Catholic Diocese of Youngstown to speak out against the November Ohio Abortion Amendment! Hopefully Catholics can unite this fall and vote NO!
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🚨2020 MICHIGAN POLLING 🚨
@InsiderPolling
performed the strongest in MI in 2020 by polling within 0.8% of the eventual Biden margin. Fox and CNN performed the worst with 9.2% misses. 5/
Biden won MI by 2.8%.
@Peoples_Pundit
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Polls aside for a second. Their campaign actions the past 10 days speak volumes as to where they see this race. And it seems to match up with
@MarkHalperin
BREAKING: Kamala Harris agrees to interview with Fox News, to be aired Wednesday at 6PM ET. It will be conducted by Bret Baier.
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Here is a guesstimate of the partisan breakdown of the Early vs Election Day Issue 1 vote.
I am calculating 19% of the GOP voting No, with D turnout much higher than 20/22.
The Early Vote returns went around 70/30 to the No, w/ Election Day vote around 53/47 for the No.
NEW Crystal Ball, on the Issue 1 smackdown in Ohio, including the weak turnout in red Appalachia, "yes" problems in generally red suburban/exurban counties, some places to look at in next year's Senate race, and much more
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When thinking ahead over the next few years, which type of GOP candidate do you believe will be more successful? Republicans whose campaign is focused on their allegiance to Trump or Republicans focused on running on his policies?
Allegiance to Trump
201
Running on his policies
513
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🚨2020 RUST BELT POLLING - THE BEST 🚨
@SusquehannaPR
was
#1
in PA/WI. They did not poll OH/MI.
@trafalgar_group
was
#1
in OH/PA,
#2
in WI, and
#5
in MI.
@Mark_R_Mitchell
was
#2
in OH and
#3
in PA. They did not poll WI/MI. 6/
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@ElectionWiz
Yep!
Exactly as we predicted on our podcast last week. Tim Ryan went up big early and his lead has dropped steadily as Election Day votes came in.. Vance up 6% now!
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@Peoples_Pundit
Will be enjoyable to watch Vance take down Ryan in his neck of the woods (Trumbull) in November!
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HUGE Night for GOP in Trumbull. Not only does Trump take county, Republican Mike Loychik won in the state house and Republican Niki Frenchko won as a county commissioner.
@Barnes_Law
#BREAKING
President Trump wins Trumbull County by a little more than 10,000 votes.
@21WFMJNews
Niki Frenchko defeats Incumbent Dan Polivka with 52% of the vote.
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