Laughing Water Capital
@LaughingH20Cap
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Laughing Water Capital is a value focused private investment partnership focused primarily on public equities. No advice or reccos from this account.
Joined January 2018
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(Ep.88) The Acquirers Podcast: Matthew Sweeney – Value Spectrum: Concentrated Small And Micro, Event-Driven Long-Short Value Investing
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If you are interested in reading our Year End 2020 investor letter, it is available here:
$AIM.TO, $CDMO, $PAR, $USAT, $FREE
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Year End 2021 Letter is now available:
$AIM.TO, $CSP.LN, $FREE, $HMHC, $PAR, $TACT, $THRY, $MSOS,
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In our 1H '21 letter we discuss why we think the present environment is favorable for funds such as LWC and introduce several new positions
$AIM.TO $CDMO $HMHC $PAR $TACT $THRY
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$NVR, an asset light home builder, has been one of the greatest success stories of the last 20 years, having compounded at >20%. Does anyone have a retrospective case study that unpacks the secret to NVR's success? (Hint: high ROIC and buybacks). TYIA
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LWC's Q1'22 letter to investors is available. In the letter I touch on things I know for certain in an uncertain world, and provide updates on select investments. $AIM.TO, $CSP.L, $MSOS, $TACT, $THRY
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Our Q3'20 investor letter is up: How to improve after 5 years, Ducks, Swans, Forced Sellers, and Forced Buyers $USAT $FREE $PAR
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In our Q1 2021 letter, we discuss our current rodent problem.
$AIM.TO $CDMO $CTLP $FREE $GAPFF $ITI $PAR $RMNI
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my latest thoughts on $LFCR, and why it could be worth $20+ in a buyout. In brief, the assets are highly strategic, & capacity is about to double. The RIGHT comps suggest a high multiple is warranted by pending capacity additions. Not advice & DYODD.
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@valueterminal
@CFAinstitute
CFA is prob. one of the best businesses in the world. Asset lite. Recurring revs. Incremental margins like a software co. selling status like a luxury goods co. counter cyclical demand. Huge untapped pricing power.
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LWC's H1'20 investor letter is available: $AIM.TO, $APG, $BFYT, $PAR, $CDMO, $ITI
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Asset light homebuilder Vistry Group $VTY.L announces new board members.
File this under "tell me you are going to become a buyback machine without telling me you are going to become a buyback machine."
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My grandfather was 1 of 55 sailors present at both Pearl Harbor and the surrender in Tokyo Bay. He was on the Honolulu in Pearl Harbor, and the Wilkes Bar at the surrender. He enlisted for a 2 year stint "to guarantee 3 square meals a day" and wound up spending 6 years at sea.
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For accredited investors who have previously expressed interest in Laughing Water Capital, our 1H'22 letter is available. In a difficult market environment, how cheap is cheap is enough?
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1/x) Not advice & talking my own book so DYODD. A few thoughts on $LFCR following the refi. 1) BK is off the table 2) a sale is still the most likely outcome 3) I think this deal is a homerun, and moves both normalized EBITDA and the multiple higher for potential buyers.
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1/x) $NVO buying 3 fill finish facilities from $CTLT for $11B. Def not apples to apples, but heavy read through to $LFCR. There is a lot of noise here b/c of CTLT's recent past, but still this suggests $LFCR's facilities are worth a lot more than the public price today.
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Q1 letter:
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IMHO this is attempted robbery. Strong activists just took control of $CSP.L, & are cleaning up the mistakes of the past. I see a path to ~5x returns in ~2 yrs as the float shrinks & the biz becomes asset light, & ROCE normalizes... as long as Inclusive doesn't steal the co. 1st
Inclusive Capital eyes £1.5bn takeover move for housebuilder Countryside
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Thank you to John Heins and Value Investor Insight, who featured our brief take on Whole Earth Brands $FREE in their latest issue
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Would be shocked if $TACT is not split into its casino printer biz and its SAAS/restaurant biz and sold within the next year following the ouster of a 26 year CEO given the activists involved, and current trends in both biz
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$FREE
@iancassel
@Dan_Roller
Nothing feels better than buying a winning stock just before the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth ... analyst picks up coverage.
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1/x We have posted our take on $USAT, a recurring revenue business focused on vending and other unattended retail, to seeking alpha . Following a lengthy activist battle, the company is now Chaired by Douglas Bergeron, whose fund owns ~17% of the equity
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Our H1'19 investor letter can be found here: Topics discussed: expensive safety and bubble hockey.
Stocks mentioned: $AIM.TO, $BXC, $CDMO, $FTK, $HIL, $ITI
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Not 🍎to🍎but biologic CDMO acquired at 8.1x sales. Legacy biz seems closer to $CDMO and have recently invested in fill finish closer to $LFCR. I suspect that fill-finish capacity is the real prize. Implies a whole lot of upside for the public cos
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YE 18 investor letter: $EZPW $FCAU $HIL $GAIA $OCN
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We believe that the proposed acquisition of $HMHC is not in the best interest of stockholders or employees, and will NOT be tendering our shares
@HMHCo
@jacklynch_
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Thanks for having me on Brandon, and congrats on how far you have come! I am proud to say I played some small part in your journey.
Please enjoy my podcast with
@LaughingH20Cap
Matt is a great investor and even better human. He was also the first HF manager I ever cold-emailed.
This week we dove deep into:
- Process & Frameworks
- Delayed Gratification
- Identifying Edge
Listen 👇
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$APG is a better business than peers, yet trades at a significant discount. This should help close the gap:
Q3'21 conference call, "We will welcome 3 new bulge-bracket firm analysts to all of you as they launch coverage on the company in the coming months..."
Nothing feels better than buying a winning stock just before the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth ... analyst picks up coverage.
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Fin twit: I’m trying to get smart on radio/wireless spectrum. Specifically low band, but mid and high band as well. Please suggest primers, podcasts, follows, write ups etc. thanks in advance!
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This is a great listen.
@davidein
explains some of the realities of being a value investor in today's world. I think about these things a lot, and spoke about how I have adapted my process to this new reality in a recent interview with Graham & Doddsville
Value Investing: Down But Not Out? With David Einhorn, Founder & President of Greenlight Capital - The Money Maze Podcast
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An underappreciated investment book is “Super Stocks” by
@kennethLFisher
. I believe this book was the first to popularize Price/Sales as a valuation metric. In recent years P/S has been perverted to justify paying any price for large TAM
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"You can’t really make ideas.. create ideas.. all ideas are the same. They just wander by. its like if you have mice. If your house has mice, you never know when they’re going to show up, or how, or in which room. And great ideas are the same. They’re like mice."
@JerrySeinfeld
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A special thanks to
@seanspellberg
@JakeWheelock805
& the rest of the CBS G&D team. Was great to spend time with these up and coming investors, and talk about LWC & $CDMO, $HGV & $THRY
Columbia Business School released the Spring '23 Ed of Graham & Doddsville featuring PMs from Union Asset Management, Diamond Hill and Laughing Water Cap (
@LaughingH20Cap
) + winning pitches from the Artisan Challenge & Neuberger Berman ESG Challenge.
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not often you see a takeover bid announced by a 13D filing rather than a company press release, but that's $FREE right now. I'd be when the company files the PR the spread closes quite a bit as quants etc. pick up on it.
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$HMHC Engine Capital fighting for the rights of all shareholders to provide a better alternative to the shameful transaction entered into by the Board.
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thanks for having me
@vitaliyk
. ValuexVail is a highlight of my year every year. $HMHC
#VALUExVail
2021 Presentation
Matthew Sweeney pitches Houghton Mifflin Harcourt $HMHC
Check it out 👇
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(1/2) $ITI initiates strategic alternative process.... they turned down an $8.50 bid last week. not perfect comps, but FLIR recently sold for 4x EV/revs, Trafficware sold for 4.7x. $BB added $2B in EV when they partnered with AMZN.
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Very important thread from Maran Capital's
@Dan_Roller
. Mr Mkt seems to think no virus = economic all clear but balance sheets need to be rebuilt = cut CapEx and R&D. One co's CapEx is another co's revenue, and lowered CapEx & R&D reduces future earnings. "Move fwd with caution"
I've been keeping an eye on capex announcements this earnings season.
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$LFCR.
Again, not apples to apples, but its also not truffles to mushrooms. This implies significant upside for $LFCR.
@LaughingH20Cap
Jefferies is estimating that Novo paid 31x EBITDA for Catalent's fill/finish assets. This mark likely implies a much higher value for Lifecore's assets than implied in the current stock price.
$LFCR
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yet another letter criticizing $HMHC's flawed sale process. IMHO the Board's behavior is shameful and embarrassing. A self tender and new Board are the best path forward for shareholders and employees.
@jacklynch_
@HMHCo
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interesting note from Cowen today on GLP1s with read through to $LFCR. They are upping their forecast for global GLP1 sales (again) - they are calling for $102B... others are as high as $200B
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@1MainCapital
@WaterworldCapi1
1/2) IMHO this is more complex than most think. Big/small spread is record wide, but the best bigs are better than ever before, and the best smalls are prob. worse than ever before (PE owns the best etc) = the spread SHOULD be wide.
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@AndrewRangeley
sums up the $HMHC proposed sale beautifully:
"I think this is the worst deal process I’ve ever seen"
"I can’t believe the board is trying to sell the company at this price given how flawed the projections were"
@jacklynch_
@crovitz
@BrizardJC
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as pointed out on VIC by another investor, $APLS is rebounding hard. Surely buyers of $LFCR were marking Syfovre at zero a few months ago... but value is undeniable now. Makes sense this would slow the process.
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enjoyed this wide ranging podcast, especially the segment on building an investment partnership the right way. Also $FREE, $TPB, $CLAR, $IAC, $AOUT
I very much enjoyed participating in the Outliers Podcast hosted by Daniel Scrivner. We talked "buy and build" investing and much more! Thanks again, Daniel.
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worth a listen for anyone who is trying to ignore the noise...
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with only 6 followers it looks like
@johnzolidis
is new to twitter. i have known him for several years, and he is one of the best retail analysts i know. worth a follow and a listen.
I just recorded a podcast with John Zolidis of Quo Vadis Capital.
@johnzolidis
I then decided to do an experiment - and have him talk through his Starbucks presentation.
Take a look here:
$SBUX
@johnzolidis
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$TACT
Would be shocked if $TACT is not split into its casino printer biz and its SAAS/restaurant biz and sold within the next year following the ouster of a 26 year CEO given the activists involved, and current trends in both biz
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I receive many inbound inquiries about internships and opportunities from students etc. This is a must read for anyone that is an aspiring analyst:
Observation from a search for a junior analyst
Do not be your own worst enemy!
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Is OOH (out of home) advertising twitter a thing? Looking for good follows in the billboard etc advertising world. TYIA
#ooh
$LAMR $CCO $OUT
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Can someone make sure the Robinhood crowd sees this $FREE report?
"We see the natural sweetener component as a $BYND $FRPT type opportunity"
12x-14x sales is apparently appropriate. Guess i was wrong when i thought this was just a boring, cheap biz 😉😇. Narrative matters.
@iancassel
Cantor initiates $FREE with a $23 target in a 69 page report. I haven't read yet - it could be garbage for all i know - but as related to the prior thread, there is value in the discovery process for off the radar stocks like $FREE
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Matt is a former colleague who was responsible for many of the great writeups that have come out of the Boyar Value Group over the years. I suggest giving him a follow, and if you are interested in the casino space, DM him for his latest on $MCRI
$CNTY $FLL $GDEN $RRR
I am pleased to announce the release of my newest report: Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI). Long idea with a price target of $105 (now trading at ~$70). $MCRI
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Good read on shipping / trucking / port delays. A hard problem to fix.
I’m A Twenty Year Truck Driver, I Will Tell You Why America’s “Shipping Crisis” Will Not End
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Lots of talk on fintwit lately about emerging managers and the challenges of launching a firm. If you’re interested in that, see below.
Neither the sacrifice required nor the potential upside has changed.
4/8 Fisher started his firm after losing his job during Great Depression. In 1932, he was making $2.99/month, equivalent of newspaper hawker's wages.
Yet Fisher considered those two years "most profitable years" since he was able to build a strong foundation for his business.
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Thanks for having me Edwin - keep up the great work on a great interview series!
I just published an awesome interview with Matt Sweeney
@LaughingH20Cap
!
Matt shares his approach to special situations investing, his good co / bad co theory, and his top idea.
LWC has compounded at 29% annualized compared to 16% for the Russell 2000.
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A company that looks expensive on P/E but has a P/S that is inline with the past may be a company that is temporarily depressing margins by investing for the future. If you can figure this out, you have the makings of a profitable investment.
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Fintwit - is there anyone that can connect me to the VIC member that goes by the handle Dogsarelife?
thanks in advance, DMs open
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Give a follow to
@BreachInletCap
before they have ever hit the "tweet" button. A concentrated long short fund with a great track record.
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(1/x) This is worth a listen. Doug Braunstein and Doug Bergeron of Hudson Executive Capital (HEC) are the activists that have taken over $USAT. TLDR at 39:20 he talks about their investment in $CATM, which we believe is illustrative of the (lack of) downside at $USAT
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more positive readthrough to $APG from $EME
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I seem to remember a good deck that someone put together on share cannibals. Does that ring any bells for anyone? If yes can you share? possibly by
@mjmauboussin
?
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$AIM.TO
Mexican Airports - $PAC $OMAB $ASR - recently reported passenger traffic for June. Domestic traffic was only down ~ 10% but notably, international traffic was flat vs 2019. There's a good chance traffic (and profitability) surpasses peak levels well ahead of expectations.
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But for Fisher, P/S started as a tool to identify securities where the investment case would be tied to margin analysis
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Satellite based legacy GPS, which controls everything from where you drive your car, to our entire energy grid and financial system is vulnerable. A terrestrial alternative is a strategic priority for the U.S. $NN
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excited to participate in this event with some super talented investors. for anyone heading to Omaha, add this event to your itinerary!
Going to be in Omaha for the 2019 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting? Join us for the Willow Oak Asset Management panel discussion "Value Investing in a Volatile Environment." Register at .
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$MCD divesting part of their owned tech. C. Hallum saying $PAR & $TACT could benefit. both have decades long relationship, and $TACT's BOHA! SAAS product was born from inbound interest from MCD in back of house. I'd argue $TACT investors get BOHA! for free at current prices.
As I have been saying. Even the big chains dont want to do this... and cant do it well.
$par
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somewhat concerning that this is literally on the shores of Laughing Waters...
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any good resources on what retailers are actually doing about COVID rent? Paying on time? Not paying at all? Partial payments? Paying later? Any commentary from mall owners worth pointing out? thanks
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$CDMO down 18% in 2 days. Trading desk color: down b/c $SRT.GR said business is slowing due to decline in pandemic related demand so $CDMO is guilty by association. Only problem is that $CDMO has zero business tied to Covid.
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P/S is really just a short cut. If a stock has net margins of 10%, and deserves a 16x P/E, then it also should trade at 1.6x P/S
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Early in my career Mike helped point me in the right direction re: investing. Most recently he was managing multi-billion dollar portfolios for a sovereign wealth fund, and he has a long track record of out performance. Worth a follow
CF industries (CF - $95.88) is fine, advantaged, highly cash generative co. However I see (30%) downside as global gas prices converge. The stock is very expensive on normal earnings. Short interest is <3%. I think momentum investors move on & am short the stock. DYODD.
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$USAT raising equity with JPM and was at Barclays conference. The raise and management comments suggest M&A is on the horizon. Seems likely that bulge bracket research coverage is on the horizon as well. M&A + research + re-open trade + index inclusion + tight float = good setup
Nothing feels better than buying a winning stock just before the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth ... analyst picks up coverage.
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positive $HMHC, trading at 10x FCF with little risk of revenue disruption due to state & local govt's flush with cash and the Feds helicoptering money into education to fight Covid learning loss.
“State and local governments have never had so much dough” - good times to be in
#govtech
software
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@SeanDowey
$HMHC raising FCF guidance by ~$50%. ARR growth of 123% with net retention of $153%. Under levered balance sheet. IMHO Stock should trade north of $20 today and could be $50 a few years out.
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“Delayed reward accounting.” The secret to Tom Brady’s success, and successful investing.
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positive read through to $THRY from $PAYX conference call. The job index they reference showed that the hiring rate for businesses with <50 employees has continued to improve.
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@Peterr2021
@ThomasBraziel
@GreenhavenRoad
think the market is spooked by 1) delayed K and 2) Cove Street sale. My view is that neither of these things changes the value of the asset.
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A good listen, with some reasons for optimism in small/micro cap land from
@180DegreeCap
New episode is now live for everybody!
Kevin Rendino of
@180DegreeCap
joins the podcast to provide reasons for optimism in stock markets
and why we may have already reached 'peak pain'
Listen here:
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@FriendlyCapMgmt
Clearly these things are never good. But they aren't always bad. They are re-stating historicals while stating no affect on current ops or liquidity. It will take time, but in my view recent comments about demand for the assets are > than historic accounting errors. $LFCR
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@iancassel
Cantor initiates $FREE with a $23 target in a 69 page report. I haven't read yet - it could be garbage for all i know - but as related to the prior thread, there is value in the discovery process for off the radar stocks like $FREE
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(2/2) $ITI has 50% market share in traffic sensors in the U.S. That data is super valuable to someone that wants a front row seat to the future of Smart Cities. at 3.5x EV/rev this is an $11.50 stock
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@garyHeff
@ClarkSquareCap
(2/x) if the thesis is mean reversion, you are relying on the madness of crowds. If the thesis is growth, you are relying on people with a hard job. If the the thesis is "stop doing X" which obscures value, the thesis is easier if the incentives are aligned.
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@DeepSailCapital
$LFCR i think everyone was... but when it became clear that a deal would not happen this calendar year it became a tax loss sale candidate. Think starting to see the rebound from that now, and still think a sale is likely shortly after they are current on financials.
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Alternative headline: Credit Card Delinquency Rates Are Normalizing, and Remain Below 2015 Levels
Credit-card delinquency rates are rising above pre-pandemic levels, driven by millennials
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$RMNI
@CapitalVoss
1) Morgan Stanley’s always excellent quarterly CIO survey out this morning shows IT spend intentions are now -4.4% YoY, down from +3.9% last quarter.
First decline in 10 years, largest expected decline ever and largest negative revision ever. Worse than 2009.
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@1MainCapital
@WaterworldCapi1
2/2) IMHO betting on mean reversion is likely to disappoint, but the opportunity set in small caps is huge for stock pickers with the ability to embrace duration risk
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@Adam_Wyden
@FullySynergized
a friend is MTA police at JFK airport. A hanger w/ broken fire safety eqpt needs 2 guys to sit in it 24/7 getting paid overtime rates until eqpt is fixed to comply w/ insurance contracts. Shows how incentivized building owners are to pay $APG. recession proof & cheap.
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@RitzerAdam
@BryanGreenbaum
I am puzzled by pearl clutching re: $LFCR. Not even 6 mos since process start. 9 mos for a process is within normal range, & given all the moving parts here would not be unusual. These things take time. It's a great biz inflecting positively & future capacity has value. Patience.
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Please report
@LaughingH2O_Cap
Seems to be an imposter.
No underscore in the real twitter for Laughing Water Capital.
Ty
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