Professor & Vice Rector for Research at Oslo New University College and Director of Oslo Analytica: Political anthropologist, analyst, conflict advisor
#TDF
leader/elected President of
#Tigray
#Debretsion
commented to me «How can we take the cease-fire declaration seriously, when they cut power and communication lines to Mekelle to punish the people. It is just to buy time for them to regroup. We will not allow that».
#Ethiopia
A popular joke in
#Tigray
these days:
Ex-president Mengistu calls
#PMAbiyAhmed
from his escape in Zimbabwe: «Hi comrade. I hear you have trouble with the
#Woyane
too. Pls do not escape to Harare as I did. I don’t want
#TDF
to come & get you here, as they will take me too».
#Tigray
president/leader of
#TDF
,
#Debretsion
, informs me this afternoon on satellite ph.: «We are under siege. We need to act now. There is not any time or sign for political solution. So people will rather die fighting than starving to death. We will not allow this to happen.»
My call for the
#Nobel
Peace Prize Committee to step down in protest over the Nobel laureate
#AbiyAhmed
#War
on
#Tigray
,
#Ethiopi
. | The Nobel committee should resign over the atrocities in Tigray | Kjetil Tronvoll | The Guardian
On this proud
#Adwa
day, commemorating
#Ethiopia
|n forces victory over the invading Italian colonial army in 1896, foreign forces are again roaming the streets of Adwa terrorising its citizens.
#Eritrea
|n troops must pull out of
#Tigray
.
1/: The world´s biggest ongoing armed conflict is not
#Russia
´s attack on
#Ukraine
, but
#Ethiopia
and
#Eritrea
´s massive offensives on
#Tigray
. Reliable estimate is that up to 1 mil. troops are engaged in the war theater.
#Ethiopia
gov seems now to be spinning the story that the
#ENDF
withdrew from
#Mekelle
upon request from the
#PP
interim reg government. Want to present a narrative where they are the «good guys wanting peace» - not the fact that they lost to
#TDF
under
#OperationAlula
.
Dear
@WFPChief
Beasely.
#Tigray
gov
#Ethiopia
has provided the receipts for the
@WFP
loan of about 680.000 liters of fuel for your trucks. As per the their priorities, they terminated the loan. Would you care to rephrase your condemnation - or allow for indep. investigation?
«All I want for X-mas» is for the
#Ethiopia
|n gov. to reckognize the need of inclusive national political dialouge to bring the country back on a peaceful trajectory. (... and for Pres. Isaias to withdraw
#Eritrea
|n troops from
#Tigray
). Time for mature leadership in
#HoA
now!
It appears that
#TDF
is advancing on all fronts, beyond
#Tigray
.
#ENDF
fighting capacity is more or less annihliated.
#Ethiopia
gov. thus deploy reg. militia to fight a battle ENDF lost. This madness must stop. Federal authorities must accept reality before the country unravels.
It is reported early this morning that the joint
#Eritrea
and
#Ethiopia
forces have launced an offensive on
#Tigray
on the northern front.
#TDF
is again fighting a three-front war. The civillian sufferings are immense. Time for IC to concentrate on the biggest
#war
in the world?
It’s amazing to see that
#Ethiopia
Foreign Affairs Ministry is praising the
#warcrimes
and atrocities perpetrated against their own citizens in
#Tigray
by
#Eritrea
|n troops. I have never heard of any other government exhibiting such treasonous posture against their own citizens.
#BREAKING
#Thread
. According to Getachew Reda of
#TDF
, who just called me,
#OperationAlula
offensive was launched this morning at 5 am by TDF 4th Army (with assistance from 3rd Army) at Agbe and all the way to Hagere Salam. TDF has faced off 2
#ENDF
divisions.
#Ethiopia
#Tigray
Allegedly today the Al-Njesahi Mosque of
#Negash
in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
was looted by forces fighting the
#Tigray
people. This is the oldest
#Muslim
settlement on the African continent, established by the sister and first followers of the Holy Prophet. My pic from Sep. this year.
1/2: Airstrikes on
#Mekelle
#Tigray
by
#Ethiopia
airforce is a futile excercise as it will never have any substantial military impact, since the pilots are not competent / planes are fighter jets not bombers. So the aim is only to terrorise the civillian population of the city.
Thread 1/3:
#UNSC
in its meeting tomorrow must realise: a)
#Ethiopia
’s «cease fire» declaration was a ploy to hide military defeat against
#TDF
, to buy time, & to lure z IC to think they want peace; b)
#AbiyAhmed
is continuing z war against
#Tigray
& ethnic profiling of
#Tegaru
;
Thinking of my good contact
#JawarMohammed
& Bekele Gerba & other
#Oromo
political prisoners in
#Ethiopia
, on their 19th day of hunger strike. Their medical condition r reportedly dire.
#OFC
and
#OLF
prisoners deserve due process of law.
#Elections
without them is void.
Please remain calm. It is just a statement from
#PMAbiy
. As most earlier statements during the
#war
on
#Tigray
in
#Ethiopia
have proven do be false - why should we believe this one? And note, Pres. Iaias of
#Eritrea
remains as always silent. International verification is needed!
I am hesitating to wish Melkam Addis Amet to all
#Ethiopia
|n friends - as it sounds hollow to talk about a «happy» new year when the country is in dire straits & people across are suffering - knowing things will not improve easily. Wish that each & one of u find solace in life.
To all followers and friends: I am taking a break from twitter, as the slur campaign against me by certain Ethiopian and Eritrean trolls is spinning out of propotions. Also z serious & totally unfounded accusations levelled by Ethi authorities r becoming increasingly concerning.
We are devastated to hear the Tekeze bridge in
#Tigray
has been destroyed.
This was one of the main supply routes into Tigray which means aid efforts will be even more severely hampered than before. The IRC continues to call for unfettered humanitarian access to the region.
Supposedly the
#Ethiopia
|n gov «law and order» operation against
#Tigray
was completed.. Heavy fighting reported today on three fronts. How many more need to die or be displaced before
@PMEthiopia
understands that the discord can only be settled through negotiations, not by arms.
#Ethiopia
MFA spokesperson: "each and every
#Eritrean
... they don't celebrate the day they separated from Ethiopia. They don't like it". Well I lived in
#Eritrea
from the summer of 1991 to 24 May 1993 - I can tell you Dina Mufti they did celebrate!
#ARDUF
/
#UGUGUMO
, the oldest Afar political front, accuses
#ENDF
of deliberately killing the over 200 civillians
#Afar
in Gaali Koma in a statement.
#Ethiopia
gov has earlier blamed this on
#TDF
. 1/2
It is unbelieveable that a sitting Prime Minister
#AbiyAhmed
incriminate himself and his government in such a manner - basically admitting
#WarCrimes
in the
#war
against
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
. This is a «responsible» partner in
#peace
negotiations?
As expected,
#TDF
does not believe in the sincerety of the
#ceasefire
statement by
#Ethiopia
, and will continue to fight to liberate all of
#Tigray
. TDF negotiate out of strenght now, and
#Abiy
has to offer more concessions as he lost the battle.
#TDF
withdrawal out of
#Afar
and
#Amhara
, and
#Tigray
gov letter to the UNSG on the process ahead is a clear and univocal call for
#peace
negotiations. The ball is firmly in the court of
#Ethiopia
gov, and
#UNSC
/ IC to follow-up…
So
#ENDF
admits to rape and
#GBV
in
#Mekelle
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
under their watch. Rape is a
#warcrime
. What will they and the Attorney General do about it? Investigate and prosecute! And protect civilian population!
#Mekelle
#Tigray
this evening z people are celebrating in the dark, as electricity is also cut by fed authorities (& telecom).
#TDF
spokesperson
@reda_getachew
says the
#GovofTigray
will offer a statement tomorrow on the so-called «cease fire» declaration by
#Ethiopia
gov.
Thread 1) Are we witnessing a
#genocidal
campaign by
#Eritrea
’n forces in the
#war
in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
? The atrocities committed and the apparent intent may seem to point in that direction. In this thread I will outline the argument supporting such possible claim.
#genocide
Based on 30 years of research, I have earlier this year warned that there has seldom been a clearer case of a coming violent
#conflict
than the ongoing altercation between
#TPLF
#Tigray
and
#PP
#Ethiopia
#Federal
gov., a dynamic in the making since the dissolution of
#EPRDF
.
It is clear that the
#CivilWar
in
#Ethiopia
is not:
⁃a surgical operation
⁃a quick war over in days
⁃containable to a domestic conflict, but has morphed into an int.
#war
⁃without disasterous humanitarian consequences.
⁃possible to solve by arms. Hence dialouge!
Sporadic shooting reported in
#Mekelle
, as
#TDF
assumes full control of the city. The
#ENDF
forces are fleeing along the road towards Afar, but with
#TDF
in hot pursuit. Hopefully they will surrender peacefully.
#Ethiopia
needs
#peace
.
#Ethiopia
has expelled 4 diplomats from
#Ireland
🇮🇪, due to the principal stand Irleand has pursued on the
#warcrimes
committed &
#humanitarian
access to
#Tigray
in
#UNSC
. Irish people should be proud of its government’s work to promote peace and justice.
Thread: What do we know so far about the
#war
on
#Tigray
in
#Ethiopia
, which has been running for nearly 2 months now? In this thread I will sum up some of the key developments.
Allegedly
#Eritrea
opposition fronts are meeting in
#Sudan
to discuss joining forces to topple the dictatorial
#IssaiasAfwerki
regime. As I have said earlier, the
#Tigray
war will lead to regime change in
#Asmara
and reconfiguration of statehood in
#HoA
.
1/4:
@WFPCheif
Beaseley is outraged & condemn
#Tigray
auth of
#Ethiopia
for “stealing”
@WFP
fuel from storage in Mekelle. My
#UN
source is equally outraged over Beaseley’s twisting of truth, when WFP initially loaned z fuel from Tigray, as is also written in their own sitrep:
Hours ago, Tigrayan authorities stole 570,000 liters of fuel for
@WFP
operations in
#Tigray
! Millions will starve if we do not have fuel to deliver food. This is OUTRAGEOUS and DISGRACEFUL. We demand return of this fuel NOW.
My take on z war on
#Tigray
in
#Ethiopia
, concluding:
«Let’s hope that
@AbiyAhmedAli
may learn from z country’s war-torn history to understand that this political dispute cannot be solved by arms & open up for negotiations before it is too late.»
I wish all
#Tigray
a blessed
#Ashenda
celebrations. The resilient and corageous girls and women og Tigray are a role model of the rest of the world - standing tall despite all challenges. Keep up the spirit!
#Ethiopia
#womenempowerment
1/3: Who to trust in describing z
#war
in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
? Over and over again government propaganda has proven to be falsehoods. The deliberate disinformation seems to continue unabated. See how status of health facilities are described by the authorities, in contrast to
#MSF
:
“All the problems we feared had happened” says
@RedwanHussien
, commenting on
#Ethiopia
’s war on
#Tigray
. My simple question is: why did you go to war if you knew the consequences? I and others also predicted this. |
@TheReporterET
«What is happening in
#Tigray
is appalling. It is time for the international community to wake up and take action.» Strong words from
#EU
High Representative, putting
#Ethiopia
on the agenda of the next Foreign Affairs Council.
@EUinEthiopia
For all internationals trying to understand and «help» mitigate the
#war
in
#Ethiopia
, it is worth listening to yesterday’s speech by
#Tigray
president &
#TDF
commander in chief
#Debretsion
- and let it inform your policy planning.
#EU
#US
#UN
Kidane Amene, chair of
#Baitona
party, has joined the
#TDF
and states the struggle is to establish an independent state of
#Tigray
.
To restore
#Tegaru
’s confidence and trust in belonging to
#Ethiopia
after the war, seems difficult indeed.
‘Now internal documents and witness accounts reveal the first starvation deaths since
#Ethiopia
|s government in June imposed what the U.N. calls “a de facto humanitarian aid blockade.”’
@AP
documenting politically induced famine in
#Tigray
Reading z official
#educational
sector "damage report" of
#Tigray
. As an educator, it is disheartening to know that Tigray may have a lost generation of youth who will grow up without basic education, due to z deliberate destruction of
#schools
by
#Eritrea
&
#Ethiopia
troops.
A panel of int. renowned expert scholars has elected Prime Minister
#AbiyAhmed
of
#Ethiopia
as “World’s Worst Head of Government” for 2021. An elaborate article in the Norwegian daily
@Morgenbladet
outlines his failures & atrocities in z
#war
on
#Tigray
:
International com. -
#UN
#US
#EU
– must now employ a certain level of analytical resources to interpret the recent events in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
. Don’t jump to conclusion too early; “you” have generally been weak (read "wrong") in analysing and reading the developments so far.
My partner institutions
#Axum
and
#Adigrat
Universities in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
looted and destroyed by troops from
#Eritrea
&
#ENDF
.
We will redouble our efforts to rebuild teaching and research infrastructure after the war.
Support
#ASA
condemnation!
In the weekly
@thecontinent_
I argue that Ethiopia’s Prime Minister must be held accountable for atrocities against Tigray people. It is time now for the public to demand the revocation of Abiy’s Nobel Peace Prize
......
The (re?)constitution of
#Agaw
Liberation Front (ALF) puts a new spin to the
#TDF
offensive in
#Amhara
RS, as parts of Wollo is traditionally Agaw homeland. The Agaw-Tegaru alliance may thus gives legitimacy to TDF’s presence in the area.
#Ethiopia
Daily aerial bombardment of civilian targets in
#Tigray
by
#Ethiopia
airforce are reported. This either puts in doubt z sincerety of
#AbiyAhmed
in pursuing
#nationaldialouge
& peace, or it shows that he is not in command of z armed forces. Either way, it is a bad omen for peace.
A significant stand by
#Kenya
who calls on
#Ethiopia
to depoliticise humanitarian aid in
#Tigray
. As chair of
#UNSC
this month, Kenya is showing that humanitarian principles comes before backing an
#African
gov. starving its own citizens.
The blocking of
@WFP
trucks in
#Amhara
with
#humanitarian
aid destined to
#Tigray
/
#Afar
informs us also about the security fragmentation of
#Ethiopia
, the mobilisation potential of vigilantes, and the withering of federal power over regional st.
By admitting to
#Eritrean
forces presence in
#Tigray
,
#PMAbiy
also admits that he has been lying for months while denying their presence on Ethiopian soil.
#Ethiopia
gov. will now likely blame z atrocities committed on Eritrea, to cover their own backs.
THREAD 1/7: What do we know about
#Eritrea
’s influence over current
#Ethiopia
/n ideological, political, economic, and security policies? Recent statements by
#PMAbiyAhmed
& his senior political advisors may make you wonder.
Even
#Tigray
interim gov reps admit that
#Ethiopia
is blocking farming supplies to Tigray to destroy z agricultural season. Why? To starve 100,000s to death, in order to try to crush z
#TDF
#Woyane
resistance. It failed during z Derg, it will fail again.
So
#AbiyAhmed
is addressing z
#Tegaru
in
#Tigrinya
telleing them z
#PP
/ fed. gov. are doing everything to safeguard humanitarian access to
#Tigray
, while everyone knows z opposite is true. Does he really think he can divide z Tegaru from supporting
#TDF
& to side with
#Ethiopia
?
The int. com. has sufficient empirical data to conclude that massive & systematic human rights abuse, crimes against humanity, & war crimes are occuring in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
. The gov. «law operation» is not over, war is ongoing, as is a biblical
#humanitarian
crisis. Action now!
100 days of conflict and we’re in the dark about 2.3 million people trapped in Tigray, Ethiopia:
??,??? people killed
??,??? families starving
??,??? children malnourished
??,??? people traumatised
??,??? people unable to get medical treatment
Our pleas for access go unanswered
#Eritrea
reading from the same script as they have used for 20 years - blaming
#US
and
#TPLF
(or
#Ethiopia
) for all their self-inflected misery. This script of externalising blame will not change as long as Pres. Isaias Afwerki stays in power.
A new quite bizarre tweet from
@CohenOnAfrica
.
#TPLF
as elected gov of
#Tigray
is organising a resistance war against what they and the majority of
#Tegaru
perceive are hostile forces. They are not «hiding». And should they bring with them the seveal hundred thousands TDF troops?
#Ethiopia
's government is refusing a ceasefire in Tigray because remaining TPLF leadership are still free in hiding. I propose that TPLF leaders be offered safe passage to exile in return for ceasefire and end of mass civilian killings.
Thread 1/6:
It is no longer the “
#war
on
#Tigray
”, but a deepening “
#Ethiopia
crisis” plunging the country into widespread instability.
#TDF
’s rapid advances over the last days into
#Amhara
&
#Afar
RS shows its capacity / capability, vs. disjointed & incapacitated
#ENDF
/militia
Having read Ex Sum, it is no need to waste time reading z full joint
@UNHumanRights
&
#EHRC
report on
#HumanRights
#WarCrimes
in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
. Non-representative empirical data, methodological flaws, «bothsideism», lack of analytical framing, etc, renders z report useless.
New report on
#Tigray
conflict calls for accountability. All parties have committed violations of int'l human rights, humanitarian & refugee law, some of which may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. Perpetrators must be brought to justice:
The
#war
in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
is not only a tragedy for the
#Tegaru
and Ethiopian people, but also for
#Eritrea
. Pres. Isaias Afwerki are sending thousands of
#childsoldiers
to be killed on the battlefields. The Eritrea -Tigray people-to-people relations are once again disrupted.
Thread: I met with and had long talks with
#SeyoumMesfin
,
#AbayTsehay
and
#SebhatNega
in Mekelle in September 2020, on the current crisis in
#Ethiopia
and
#Tigray
. All of them were still arguing that Tigray belonged in the federation, and it was impossible to give up Ethiopia.
In what is seen as a 'big blow' to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Ethiopian army has killed the ex-foreign minister Seyoum Mesfin, one of the founding members of the TPLF.
👉 More from
@EmmanuelIgunza
here
It’s heartbreaking to read all notifications of the loss of numerous martyrs in relation to the three-day national mourning period. So many young and promising
#Tegaru
perished to defend their family, people and
#Tigray
from the atrocious war. Let their sacrifice herald peace.
The ongoing
#3rdWoyane
-
#Tigray
resistance struggle - will hence most likely be articulated as a war of independence from an
#Ethiopia
they no longer can trust or live in with peace, security and safety.
With all due respect,
#PMAbiyAhmed
, z 2021
#elections
in
#Ethiopia
will not go into history as z country’s first «free, fair, & credible» election. Rather it shows chiefly continuities of old
#EPRDF
practices of arrest/harassment of opposition & z results of a «one-party» system.
WTF
@WFP
! «The topic of starvation is politically sensitive» states
@petersmerdon
and don’t want to confirm figures in
#Tigray
#Ethiopia
. Well, I tell u the issue of starvation is also lethal for those affected by it. Get your act in gear and get the numbers!
#Ethiopia
|n gov. propaganda is beyond
#Orwellian
newspeak. Z «indoctrination» head (sic!) of
#ENDF
claims «For z sake of political consumption these forces massacred their own people» blaming
#TDF
. General, ‘command responsibility’ = accountability awaits.
1/: My initial reflections on the
#Tigray
-
#Ethiopia
#peaceagreement
. First, it is commendable that the parties have reached an agreement. Admittedly, this was surprising. One should sincerely hope that the agreement will pave the way for durable peace.
I am sure ambassadors and international actors will say after the
#Ethiopia
war is over: «Ohh we did not know. Had we known, we would have acted to stop the genocide on
#Tigray
». The betrayal of
#UN
#AU
and int com to the principles of
#R2P
in the face of evidence, is dismaying.
1/n
THREAD: "We are almost dead bodies!"
What a heart-wrenching💔 expression from one of my contacts in
#WesternTigray
!
I saw the following picture going viral on Facebook. I was curious to know more & contacted the very person who posted it.