William Davison
@wdavison10
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Energy, Ethiopia, Arsenal. Writer, editor, publisher, analyst. Ethiopia Insight owner/editor. Former Crisis Group, Bloomberg.
UK
Joined May 2012
My new Substack—sign up!. 'It's the Laws of the Game, Stupid!' analyses how football's laws are applied and discusses potential improvements. This first post lays out the issues that will be featured. Second is on pen against Saliba in BHA v ARS.
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"We'll win war in days"."Eritrea is not involved"."We'll provide aid access soon"."We'll defeat the junta soon"."Eritrea will leave soon"."We'll restore power and telecoms soon"."We'll restore aid access soon". Who exactly is advising Guterres?.
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Thanks all for your message of support. I am safely back in the UK. More later on that, but I will be maintaining focus on providing analysis and engaging in constructive advocacy on #Ethiopia and the Tigray conflict.
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Five months into conflict, Ethiopia's federal government says Eritrea's military entered Ethiopia due to security threats after Tigrayan forces moved against the military's Northern Command and war broke out. Why didn't the government say that when Eritrea entered in November?.
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Four sources tell me there is ongoing renewed mass arrests of Tigrayans in Addis Ababa, especially in 22 area. One source claims that this campaign of detentions based on ethnic profiling will continue and intensify.
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Obvious and ridiculous fake news. This looks like a Tigrayan forces' attack on ENDF. The WFP convoy using clearly marked trucks was attacked by Afar militia on 18 July.
Video evidence has emerged #TPLFTerroristGroup has attacked & destroyed @WFP food-aid trucks. #US should stop supporting the #TPLFTerrorists & stop this madness. @wdavison10 @BronwynBruton @afitz3105 @AnnGarrison @BBCWorld @OneWorldCNN
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Released Tigrayan reports detainees included young boy to 82-year-old, mentally ill, Saudi returnees, pregnant women, retired colonels, father and 3 sons, in a cold container, no health facilities, no charges. Guards asking for cash for toilet visits and to receive food.
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Comprehensive and horrifying report by Deutsche Welle from Adigrat and Mekelle.
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Also, spelling names correctly.
Let me give abc of journalism to @wdavison10. Get ur facts straight! There's no legitimate "TPLF government" in #Ethiopia as you claim. Parliament has designated it #TPLFTerroristGroup. Birtukan Mideksa delisted it as legit party. Who're u to dispute the law? Still feel defamed?
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Rare reporting from inside Tigray by @vercrus for VRT NWS has footage from first media trip to Shire from West Tigray. They found evidence of displacement, destruction, and Eritrean presence. In Shire, they obtained a video of a tank loaded with goods.
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General Tsadkan, Ethiopian military chief of staff during Eth-Eri war, now a commander of what he calls Tigray's army, was involved in Addis-Mekelle pre-war shuttle diplomacy last year to try and end feud. He says Abiy was not interested in dialogue with Tigray's leadership.
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This aid convoy, which included 3 fuel tankers, heading to Tigray was attacked and the food looted in the Afar-controlled part of Zone 2. Drivers were assaulted. No aid trucks have entered Tigray since mid-December.
Updates on Humanitarian Assistance to the Tigray Region 17 March 2022
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The @guardian documents evidence of Eritrean military involvement in Tigray conflict, including interviews with eye-witness and aid worker in Shire.
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In fact, WFP says Tigrayan forces are cooperating with them and that the WFP convoy was attacked by Afar militia.
In the past three days, TPLF committed terrorist attacks, blocking the road on 189 trucks carrying food and non-food aid to Tigray via Afar where the vehicles are forced to stop. The attacks took place in Ferentisu Yalo Woreda, zone four of the Afar Region.
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At the UNSC meeting, the U.S. representative said that Ethiopia's government is restricting aid to Tigray and that could constitute a war crime.
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I'm credibly informed that something approaching 'final phase' of moving Tigrayans out of west Tigray to east of Tekezze river is now underway. Perhaps in advance of possible greater media scrutiny? If you have solid info on this, please message me.
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I've received a relatively credible report - though uncorroborated for now - of Amhara authorities (they said "Fano") yesterday executing ten Tigrayan prisoners of fighting age from the thousands detained in Humera in Western Tigray. Full context here:.
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Senior TPLF and ousted Tigray govt official on relationship between TPLF and Tigray Defence Forces (TDF):. "The TDF belongs to Tigray’s government. The TDF does not belong to TPLF, the party. The Tigray government is currently a TPLF government.".
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Solid source says 2,000 people recently arrived so far from Sudan (Amharas from al-Fashaga mostly, I guess) and Amhara to settle in Dansha area in western Tigray, with property being allocated to them. Around 6,000 people expected in total in this phase, they said.
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Messay Kebede considers Tigray situation and favours "containment", or "siege warfare", to try and create rift between TPLF and people. Army then enters as "liberators". So, continue to use starvation as weapon of war. Equally delusional and disgraceful.
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While it’s legit for fed govt to hold TPLF leaders responsible, they have party support, party controls region, and many Tigrayans back region on core disputes. So, anti-TPLF mobilisation is - in effect - against Tigray, and its people. That's v dangerous - to say the least.
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It is the depth of the political hatred in Ethiopia that drives "pro democracy" activists to this sort of deranged reaction to a video of Ethiopian soldiers massacring people that arguably we should be most worried about.
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To achieve a ceasefire, the federal blockade on Tigray will have to end, and there will have to be the end of Amhara control of western Tigray, or some other deal on that issue. At this stage, is vital that there is no obfuscation on this.
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Ethiopian and Eritrean troops may increasingly target civilians, partly as Tigray forces have popular backing. ➡️African leaders need to urge Abiy and Isaias to end bloodshed .➡️Biden should warn Isaias and Abiy of punitive measures if civilians targeted.
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Spoke to diplo who attended MoFA Bishoftu retreat, 24 Aug-7 Sep, 2020. Abiy said to them it'd take a few days to remove TPLF leaders, might be some banditry . So, fed military operation planned before Tigray election, and many officials knew about it.
THREAD. Key part of fed govt narrative is TPLF started war by attacking military. Indeed, no real way to prevent war after that incident. But, Tigray Prosperity Party exile says PM Abiy stated c.10 days before war that intervention was planned. 1/7.
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Discussed with Al Jazeera for @CrisisGroup some of background to ethnic cleansing allegations in western Tigray and commented on necessity for federal government to acknowledge Eritrean military's role in order to start addressing abuses as promised.
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Why is @Channel4 using an explicitly partisan journalist to cover Ethiopia's civil war? . We all have biases but this guy is not even trying to counteract them. What's the deal @Channel4?.
I wonder why the US, with all its might, money, influence and access to information, is misreading the situation in #Ethiopia. Its blind-support for the TPLF rebel group and unwillingness to consider reality on the ground - is making America - not great.
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One of the most thoughtful ferenji commentators @adecort outlines his concerns about a genocide against Tigrayans after PM advisor, new MP and influential Orthodox preacher Daniel Kibret's latest blood-curdling intervention.
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My impression is that overwhelmingly Tigrayans of all political views are against intervention. Only people for it I've spoken to are in gov or Nebiyu, Tigray PP head. Please DM or, preferred, email me if you're from Tigray and support intervention (or just if you have a view).
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A simple and key point about Ethiopian national dialogue-type initiatives:. Other 'inclusive' processes can be worthwhile, but political disputes driving violence won't be eased until criminalised actors (e.g. Jawar, Eskinder, OLA, TPLF) or genuine reps of them are part of talks.
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THREAD. Top Tigray leader told me yesterday they welcomed ICRC delivery of vital medical supplies but far more action is needed to deliver food, other vital goods, and basic services. “Those kinds of things will create a conducive environment for a political settlement.”. 1/6.
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Contrary to misleading reports and statements, Tigray's government has only committed to a Cessation of Hostilities "effective immediately" IF it's satisfied with aid delivery. This is a critical condition and cannot be omitted.
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Federal transitional arrangements and inclusive political process are listed among Tigrayan preconditions for a ceasefire.
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On the 33rd anniversary of the Derg's Hawzien marketplace bombing, Reuters reports that an airstrike hit a market in Tigray, killing dozens of civilians.
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🇪🇹 chaos is series of disastrous self-fulfilling prophecies:. Despite claims, TPLF not secessionist - but is set to be. Oromo oppo was mostly peaceful; now focus is insurgency. Govt alleged OLA was TPLF project - now they’re allies. Amid insults, Amh nationalism got more hostile.
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Fed govt has pledged to permit some fuel tankers to enter #Tigray, increase UNHAS flights from 2>3/week, allow NGOs more cash, ease restrictions on comms equipment. 27 WFP trucks should be on way Semera-Mekele soon. First since 14 Dec. Good news, but pledges have to be honoured.
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On 30 Dec, a report by a committee of Tigray's authorities, UN, and NGOs said Tigray civil society orgs had documented that Eritrean and Amhara forces have killed 3,708 civilians in Tigray since the November peace deal.
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Tigray leadership welcome Biden's Executive Order paving way for sanctions and says it's ready to work towards negotiated ceasefire, while restating that its "urgent priorities" are Amhara and Eritrean withdrawals from Tigray and ending of federal "siege".
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I told Al Jazeera for @CrisisGroup that Eritrea probably admitted its role in Tigray conflict to align with Ethiopia, but evidence indicates its role extended far beyond border areas, and there's been no evidence of withdrawal since Ethiopia announcement.
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Unless there's a major political rethink, the strength of the Tigray Defence Forces is probably the key variable in determining Ethiopia's stability. @burke_jason for The Guardian finds armed resistance in Tigray continuing, and possibly strengthening.
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Eth gov says there's no war in Tigray, and it's reconstructing region - but also that it's launching "Tigray Emergency Recovery Plan". But it's an emergency due to the ongoing war. Relief in Tigray can only start for real after delusion in Addis ends.
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World's now aware of civilian suffering in Tigray. But to get aid in and e.g. Eritreans out, war has to stop. With definitive wins for either side unlikely, that means ceasefire and negotiations. That's also unlikely right now - and so is the core obstacle to easing suffering.
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This 28-truck aid convoy heading to Tigray from Semera, Afar was attacked on 19/8 by armed locals 46km from 1st checkpoint at Serdo and 3 trucks looted. It could not turn there and proceeded, but returned 20/8 from Silsa checkpoint due to more insecurity.
Footage of humanatarian aid trucks meant for #Tigray Region being looted in #Afar Region. This is devastating! #Ethiopia . @USAmbUN
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Although the call for all Tigrayans to be placed in concentration camps by an ESAT journalist comes close, this is the scariest post, by activist Dejene Assefa. This one at least has been removed by Facebook I think.
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Eritrean soldiers killed 19 civilians, including 7 kids under 10, in Hawzien area on 8 May, a day after TDF-EDF fighting in their village, according to fairly detailed report from @TghatMedia, a website dedicated to documenting atrocities in the war.
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Some WFP trucks *may* finally arrive in Mekelle on Sat. While that would be very positive, to fight famine, and so advance peace, it needs to be followed by consistent daily delivery of sufficient food, fuel, and medicine, as well as restoration of banking, telecoms, and power.
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I have withdrawn from this panel.
Cairo Center for African Studies (#CCAS) is pleased to host a webinar about #Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis with a distinguished panel: @wdavison10, @RAbdiAnalyst, and @KjetilTronvoll. Webinar will take place Dec. 15 at 3pm Cairo Time. Limited spaces! RSVP now to: events@ccas-egypt.com
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THREAD. Key part of fed govt narrative is TPLF started war by attacking military. Indeed, no real way to prevent war after that incident. But, Tigray Prosperity Party exile says PM Abiy stated c.10 days before war that intervention was planned. 1/7.
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Very mixed messaging recently from Addis. This statement confirms fed govt was restricting aid to Tigray by land and air, but claims latest blocks are due to "TPLF militants" closing Abala road. Yet we know e.g. WFP convoys delivering to Afar were looted by locals in past weeks.
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An account of a (to my knowledge) unreported 5 January mass killing by Eritrean troops in Gulokmeda district in eastern Tigray on @TghatMedia, a website dedicated to documenting the war in Tigray from a Tigrayan perspective.
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Interesting BBC interview with doctor who fled Humera:.
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Leading health journal the Lancet Global Health published analysis by @ProfMulugeta and colleague based on health survey in Tigray from 15 July to 15 August that shows worrying increases in malnutrition rates.
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Polarisation leads to alignment being treated as support. When news wires report alleged TDF atrocity, it doesn't mean they support TDF opponents. Likewise, when intl actors call for e.g dialogue or unfettered aid, that aligns with TPLF position. But it's not support for TPLF.
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The TPLF, it seems, failed to infiltrate VoA. Who knew?? 😉.
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Tigray leaders say they want blockade ended and services restored, removal of security threats to Tigray, return to pre-war regional borders, space to hold independence referendum. Incompatibility with federal, Eritrea, Amhara gov interests is stark.
@SDebritse Serious Question - what do the Tigrayans want beyond ending the suffering? Independence? Right of TPLF to run Tigray? The disputed territories? Pre-eminence? We discussed that question when I was in USG with no clear answer. Is there one?.
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Tigray govt says its forces are withdrawing from Amhara and Afar in order to give peace a chance. While there're many obstacles, this withdrawal to Tigray, after battlefield setbacks, is an opportunity to stop the fighting, and so should be grasped by all.
መግለፂ መንግስቲ ትግራይ!.ብሰራዊት ትግራይ ተታሒዞም ዝነበሩ ገለ ከባቢታት ዓፋርን ኣምሓራን ለቒቕና ግቡእ ምትዕርራይ ብምግባር ቃልሲ ህዝቢ ትግራይ ብዓወት ንምዝዛም ዘኽእል ስትራተጂ ሓንፂፅና ብዝበለፀ ኣንፈትን ቅኒትን ንምትግባር ተወሲኑ ኣሎ!
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Reports are emerging that some Somali troops who were receiving training in Eritrea were killed in Tigray conflict.
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Our latest @CrisisGroup briefing on the conflict in Tigray and what needs to be done to try and ease the suffering.
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Recently U.S.-based academic Tilahun Yilma called for the elimination of any trace of cancerous TPLF. In this 1996 interview, he called for Tigrayans/Eritreans to be deported en masse to allow Ethiopians to live in peace. Check out some of his reasoning:.
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Against wishes of some major shareholders, World Bank approves $300m loan to federal government. This cuts against donor policy to withhold support until blockade ends and there's progress towards peace. It frees up funds to be spent on military campaigns.
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I think all observers, including myself, could have done more to bang the drum of peace during the last opportune moment, which was after the 28 June federal pullout from Tigray and before the 12 July start of Tigray's offensive. Please, let's not make the same mistake this time.
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The first major report on atrocities by Eritrean troops in Tigray. It will not be the last.
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Report from Reuters on sexual violence reportedly committed by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops against civilians in Tigray during the conflict.
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Haven't had time to get all translations checked but this accurately reflects significant uptick in very dangerous anti-Tigrayan hate speech. This is occurring as Tigray forces make more advances in eastern Amhara, today controlling Kombolcha city.
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It's hard to convincingly argue TPLF has hold on intl media, NGOs, rights groups, as when TPLF was core of EPRDF gov, those same institutions frequently criticised it for abuses. In reality, current criticism of Eth and Eri govs is due to actual abuses.
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There was doubt cast on this yesterday. Ethiopia Map is convinced, as are a few intl agency officials. And people in Mekele. Report was followed by blackout across Tigray. So looks like ENDF bombed critical piece of civilian infrastructure, @AdamAbebe .
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Tigray's govt said yday it's withdrawn its forces from Erebti district in Afar. WFP's currently waiting for permission from Afar authorities for another convoy to travel to Tigray. No sign of unrestricted access, let alone restoration of vital services.
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The latest horrific incident confirmed in Tigray indicates why the threat to civilians increases along with intensifying conflict (meaning, as Tigrayan armed resistance strengthens) - this occurred after a Tigray Defence Forces ambush on an ENDF convoy.
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Key Tigray forces' goal is to restore Tigray's pre-war borders. Federal govt needs to deny Tigray forces an external supply line. Amhara elements will not give up on claims to Welkait, etc. A future Tigray nation state would need intl border. So, it seems there's no way out.
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*Assuming* TDF advance continues, big upcoming dilemma is how would Tigray's leaders secure Tigray's interests - that necessitates exercising significant federal power - yet convince potential allies this isn't post-1991 redux? . Iron-cast deal with Oromo & other allies is vital.
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That's your headline @TheReporterET when the Prime Minister admits his government has been misleading the nation about the presence of a foreign army on Ethiopian soil?
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De Waal's tribute to Seyoum. Not met anyone seething with more rage than Seyoum in Oct. Said EPRDF-era was "golden years", and current events was "history denied". Saw "no way" of working with Abiy gov, wanted Tigray to force dialogue, not secession.
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Before it escalates into a return to full-blown war, all parties should halt their ongoing military operations around southern Tigray, which are pitting #Ethiopia federal and Amhara units against Tigray's forces. 1/6.
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I also confirmed Assefa's detention. His wife was detained and released week ago. What a disgrace. So hard to try and retain objective perspective on situation, especially considering where it might be heading.
Prof. Assefa Fisseha & Prof Mehari Redae of Addis Ababa University School of Law arrested by the Ethiopian regime. Their only crime: being #Tigray|an. #TigrayMassArrests . @KenRoth @LaetitiaBader @jgmariner @UNHumanRights @USEmbassyAddis @UKinEthiopia @EUinEthiopia @GerEmbAddis.
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With @SecBlinken calling for the withdrawal of Amhara forces from Tigray, we should all be clear about the obstacles to that occurring. Here's the 18 February view of Amhara's president, who was de facto appointed by the PM at the outset of the war:
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THREAD: Why we should take seriously concerns of impending mass starvation in Tigray. Tigray interim admin appointed by fed govt say >4.5m from pop. ca.6m need urgent aid; some already starving to death. Fed govt, however, claims it’s under control. Key considerations:. 1/6
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Good thread. For Isaias, the federal govt, and many other TPLF opponents, the TPLF cannot return. For many Tigrayans, the TPLF govt the people elected must return. Until this circle is squared - or there's a major rethink - the war will continue.
Sunday thread! .Several efforts to bring an end to the tragic & senseless war in #Tigray is facing stiff resistance from Eth Gov’t & its backers who substitute pleas for cessation of hostilities to allow humanitarian access as attempts to bring back the TPLF. Few things to say:.
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THREAD . Sometimes fed gov claims it’s *really* trying to deliver aid to Tigray, other times it blames TPLF. Sometimes, mask falls off - and it reveals aid denial is policy. That’s what we saw yday with MoFA statement. 1/5.
Press Statement: The TPLF is once again crying wolf to cover up its fresh attacks on civilians October 18, 2021 #Ethiopia
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In a chilling now unavailable FB post, Ethiopia's ruling party says, once again, the end is nigh for TPLF, and Tigrayans must distance themselves from it. But we know many Tigrayans back core positions of TPLF admin, so Prosperity Party stance is just a recipe for more carnage.
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Evidence here is weak given seismic claims. I'd have thought story needed solid medical expert testimony from Tigray, at the least. Still, I have one good source convinced EDF is using WP. More will gradually come out, as with other incidents.
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I am willing to accept that the British government is no longer what it was. But I am unwilling to accept that its standards may have fallen this far.
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Such statements indicate once more that the federal government's denial of basic services to Tigray's population was a political choice.
#GoE is preparing to return Services of Electricity, Water, Telephone, Banking & other facilities in liberated areas by #ENDF. This will ensure smooth coordination of humanitarian aid. #DisarmTPLF #TPLFisCriminalGroup.
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The spokesperson of the federally appointed Tigray interim administration tells VOA Tigrinya in 12 February interview that the "main challenge" right now is aid not getting to people, citing looting of delivery trucks by Eritrean troops.
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Presumably the TPLF originally detailed its strategy in Tigrigna. I'm not too sure what purpose of translating it into Amharic would've been? I've only seen Amharic version. And anyway, if it is a fake, why not do so in Tigrigna? Confusing.
“The TPLF document dated October 2020 amounts to a blueprint for the conflict and humanitarian crisis instigated by the terrorist group. It highlights the lengths the TPLF will go to undermine Ethiopia’s statehood and nascent democratic transition.
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UN says Ethiopia has no legal right to expel UN workers as Foreign Ministry accuses UN officials of diverting aid to the TPLF.
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(I don't have public conversations on Twitter anymore as it's both a waste of my time and I get chided, lectured, slapped on wrist, etc, for it. But my DMs are open. keep it respectable though, please).
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Amnesty's detailed, convincing report is a chance for those who've been denying Eritrean role and downplaying atrocities to reassess their views. It also reaffirms that civilians are very likely to continue to suffer heavily if the conflict continues.
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I think this is the strongest statement yet from a major international actor that suggests Eritrean troops have been involved in the conflict in Tigray.
The US State Department has now confirmed « credible » reports of Eritrean troops inside Ethiopia and calls for their immediate withdrawal.
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Someone well-informed messaged to say the trucks have already been turned back. If so, looks like the Prosperity Party authorities at various tiers are still playing the same cruel bureaucratic games - with devastating consequences for people in Tigray.
Fed govt has pledged to permit some fuel tankers to enter #Tigray, increase UNHAS flights from 2>3/week, allow NGOs more cash, ease restrictions on comms equipment. 27 WFP trucks should be on way Semera-Mekele soon. First since 14 Dec. Good news, but pledges have to be honoured.
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The latest OCHA update on Tigray confirms aid can now move around inside Tigray but cannot get into the region.
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My latest comments for @CrisisGroup to Al Jazeera as international networks focus back on Tigray situation due to humanitarian emergency after moving on to other stories when fed govt claimed conflict was over.
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If this was not so deadly serious, it would be absolutely hilarious.
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Messay Kebede, perhaps the most articulate anti-ethno-nationalism advocate, shows no concern for civilian suffering in Tigray, and repeats key official lines, blaming TPLF foreign networks and duped Western govts, without providing any detail or evidence.
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Reports by @addisstandard on federal govt's interim Mekelle mayor admitting Eritrean involvement in conflict in Tigray. It seems other Ethiopian news media should be following this story.
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More falsehoods (other than fact civilians will suffer) from someone who knows better. Some key aims of Tigray offensive are to end blockade on Tigray, reclaim western Tigray from Amhara region, and force a transitional fed govt.
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