John Thaler JAT
@John_Thaler_JAT
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Husband. Father. Hedge fund manager. Focused on TMT.
NY-CT
Joined October 2022
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Today JAT Capital released an Open Letter to the Board of Beyond, Inc.
@overstock
@BeyondBYON
@BedBathBeyond
$BYON $OSTK
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Today we sent a 220 demand letter to the Board of $BYON to compel them to produce documents that we hope will provide answers to our questions. If past is precedent, we fully expect the company to ignore, delay and obfuscate, rather than simply producing documents that would
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On Monday we submitted a legal demand for documents pertaining to corporate governance at $BYON. Three days later a board member resigned. Yikes. We have and continue to believe that there may be innocent explanations to the 10 questions we asked. They refuse to answer for
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@G4000Sean
@die_karl
@fear_munger
JAT owns more shares of $BYON today than we did a month ago. Different filings treat shares/options/swaps differently, so you aren't comparing apples to apples. We went to a G filing after Marcus was added to the board, the CEO was fired, the board was de-staggered, Marcus was
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@darchwire
@Overstock
@BeyondBYON
@BedBathBeyond
In my career the "invisible hand" usually prevails, meaning things that should happen eventually do. People make the right choices. The market forces them to, one way or another.
@marcuslemonis
will eventually get his hands on the steering wheel. Enormous upside from there IMO.
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Is worth noting that today is Black Friday. Most retail and e-commerce businesses are squarely focused on driving sales as we kick off the holiday season. The Board of $BYON is issuing an 8-K to clean up governance matters. Terrific. Good luck today
@DaveNielsen36
and all of the
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@davidorr_31
@G4000Sean
@die_karl
@fear_munger
Lot of low hanging fruit for the new team/board to attack. Benefit of a business being mis-managed for so long. Situation/outlook today vs 90 days ago is 180 degrees (stock is essentially flat during that time). A+ operator at the helm and mission focused team. Future is bright.
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@OfSyntheses
@RawBooty2
@fear_munger
@MachinistImprov
@AlderLaneEggs
@marcuslemonis
@ActAccordingly
Re: Medici we proposed a tracking stock structure (we attached a legal opinion validating that it is possible) which would permit investors to buy/sell Medici as they see fit. If you own BYON you would get a share in Medici. If you like those assets you could buy more of it.
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@bogistia
@Overstock
@BeyondBYON
@BedBathBeyond
The best path is for the board to simply do the right (and obvious) things. In the absence of that there are other levers to pull. We will see.
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@OfSyntheses
@RawBooty2
@fear_munger
@MachinistImprov
@AlderLaneEggs
@marcuslemonis
@ActAccordingly
Shareholders shouldn't need to guess the Board's thoughts and motivations. Is quite possible there are valid answers to all of our questions. They refuse to answer/take destructive actions instead.
JATs intentions are written down for everyone to see. No guesswork required.
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@OfSyntheses
@RawBooty2
@fear_munger
@MachinistImprov
@AlderLaneEggs
@marcuslemonis
@ActAccordingly
Nobody has asked for the business to be sold. To the contrary we have asked that a comp structure be established w an option pool for senior mgmt/board to incent LT value creation. They have refused.
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@Tom___Web
@Overstock
@BeyondBYON
@BedBathBeyond
All of these investments were already made and many required little ongoing involvement. At the time this deal was struck the forward outlook for tZero (in particular) represented enormous upside in this portfolio. A simple explanation should be easy to provide.
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@michel_delving
While you might be asking that question rhetorically, it is an honest question that I dont understand. Really makes you wonder.
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@gdsurowiec
@bogistia
@Overstock
@BeyondBYON
@BedBathBeyond
@marcuslemonis
Ironically the strongest part of their "hand" is
#2
in my letter, which itself is the result of poor corporate governance.
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@zerohedge
The pace at which the market narrative shifts from "slowing inflation/fed pivot" to "how bad are the numbers" may start to accelerate. In between we will live in goldilocks for some period of time. Be long and then be max short in 3 months starting to be consensus.
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@TechCrunch
An efficient market should collapse all air pockets of value created by uneconomic behavior. AAPL is playing with fire by threatening a TWTR ban.
@elonmusk
is the one individual capable of replicating the iOS ecosystem + phone, and he would immediately capture 1/3 of the market.
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@unusual_whales
Compared to most founders, Zuck has done an amazing job scaling and diversifying the business he started in his dorm room. Market presently assigning something like negative $200 billion to his personal metaverse project. That gap should be closed, one way or another.
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@1MainCapital
In May of 2020 the government introduced the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus package in the history of the world. What is the present day analogue?
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@rsandler21969
Is there another thing that we express our appreciation for but must offer an obligatory “but it’s not perfect…”?
America is the greatest creation in the history of mankind. We are all blessed to live here. Let’s all do our part to keep it that way.
Happy 4th!
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@SJosephBurns
Wise words. To compound capital over a longer period of time, spending a year(s) digging yourself out of a hole destroys your CAGR. Survive turbulence. Swing at and hit fat pitches. Missing the first piece of a market pivot is ok. Don't bet on things outside of your wheelhouse.
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@leadlagreport
Are you referring to the trailing multiple, or do you think NVDA will earn $2 in the next 12 months? I will take the over on $2.
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@pmje73
Issue at the moment is that virtually everyone agrees that 1) inflation cooling, 2) fed nearing an end, 3) EPS estimates need to come down (a lot). Most see that and want to be defensive. Is it conceivable for mkt to rally straight through that backdrop? Positioning supports it.
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@CNBCFastMoney
@wintonARK
We dont hear a lot of examples of how common uses of search (finding hotel/restaurant, place to buy xyz) gets replaced by a chatbot. ARK says "AI will tell me the answer", which undoubtedly is some % of queries (not ones that monetize), but many queries are looking for options.
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@SJosephBurns
Critical lesson many learn the hard way is to reduce risk when your particular investment orientation is not working. As a fundamental stock picker, I was told early in my career by smarter guys than me that when the market is macro driven, reduce risk/be smaller/more tactical.
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@DilksJay
@TommyThornton
Change of custody for a product that, in most cases, is the 2nd most valuable thing you possess, is a tricky dynamic. When the car shows up in your driveway and you have a question about some function, ongoing service, the scratch on the door, do you want to ask the uber driver?
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@mtracey
Not sure it is good practice for a lawmaker to allocate taxpayer dollars based on his "personal" biases. Is nice to admit his weaknesses publicly though.
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@carlquintanilla
@followtheh
@RobGeorge
@opinion
Elons only stated "instinct around free speech" has been to permit all speech (within the boundaries of the law). What seems bizarre are mainstream outlets calling that "bizarre".
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@modestproposal1
@reedhastings
and team destroyed linear/the bundle. I do think we will look back and think attempting to be another NFLX (HBOmax, Para+, etc) will be perceived as a massive destruction of value. What is exposed, however, is the 20 years of over-earning from must carry + px hikes.
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@modestproposal1
Not clear whether large players like DIS will ultimately make math work to collapse windows, all content to DTC and burn cash for years in hopes of achieving subscriber scale. Is likely impossible for subscale players. Need either a) more M&A, or b) strategy pivot away from DTC.
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@FinancialTimes
Depends what goals you believe they are pursuing. Many Chinese tell you their aim is to surpass the US and dominate the world economically and militarily. Once achieved, all regions of the world become "colonies" for China to draw resources from as needed. We want that to fail.
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@BusinessInsider
If consumer decisions are going to be based purely on quality and price of the product, it will be difficult for anyone to take share from Apple (barring regulatory intervention). We may be at a point, however, where consumers are making decisions for other reasons.
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@DeepSailCapital
Would be helpful to get color on geographic mix of account adds. Accounts are +17% yoy, platform revs are +4% yoy, and platform gross profit is down 4% yoy. Presumably that is geographic mix related (rev and gp per sub is down a lot - mix?).
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@ChairliftCap
This is the mother of all "tough comps". We are coming out of 10 years of unprecedented QE and historically low rates, $7 trillion of stimulus, a year of "re-opening" demand and supply chain constraints that jammed prices for all things. All reversed on a dime. Soft landing?
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@PasivAgresIncme
@leadlagreport
I suspect people buying NVDA are looking beyond the first quarter of FY24 (a quarter that has already ended).
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@PeterSchiff
We've had a buyer/seller strike for months but that cannot last. When that dam bursts and if mortgage rates remain where they are, the mkt will start clearing prices down meaningfully and there will be a cascade through the economy. That is the bear case, and it is deflationary.
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@DeepSailCapital
If
@elonmusk
seriously pursues the development of an alternative to iOS/iPhone, that would be catastrophic to $AAPL. A giant portion of the market is willing to accept an inferior product to get off of GOOG/AAPL. He would be the one person capable of delivering a product on par.
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@ShortSightedCap
Only real risks are regulatory disruption to the ecosystem, and what is likely the inevitable disruption/end to the China supply chain and underlying Chinese consumer demand. Absent these two things people will likely continue to pay up.
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@DiMartinoBooth
@forexanalytix
Absent a significant pivot the Fed has already set in motion a meaningful housing correction, the consequent slowdown in housing-related spending, all while consumers are max credit and out of cash. The good news is inflation is definitely going down.
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@RichLightShed
@WaltLightShed
@Twitter
@elonmusk
If
@elonmusk
executes his plan of allowing all opinions, and implements tech to verify users and individual curation of content, Twitter can become what it was intended to be and what we sorely need - a tool for humans to learn about the world and each other. I hope he succeeds.
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@karaswisher
@elonmusk
Should the DOJ investigate these companies too or just Twitter? Not sure why Twitter would be uniquely a risk to national security, aside from the obvious. A reporter might ask that question.
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@karaswisher
The Saudi sovereign wealth fund owned a stake in Twitter before
@elonmusk
was involved, is one of the largest funds on Earth, and owns stakes in many companies including Boeing, Disney, Facebook, Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway, Live Nation, etc etc.
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@SquawkCNBC
@kevinolearytv
@SBF_FTX
@kevinolearytv
is correct. The demise of FTX "changes nothing" about the prospect of crypto.
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@KeithMcCullough
No. He is talking about market bottoms in 1950 and 1982. Only part he is leaving out is what the next few years look like in comparison to the 50s and 80s (massive expansive fiscal/monetary/productivity periods). Inflation is coming down. That is the good news.
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@modestproposal1
Oddly AMZNs stock has been terrible because the company is burning a ton of cash. Its almost as if the price hikes are being eaten up by increased fulfillment costs.
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@MarketWatch
One important lesson from 2008 is that during economic contractions small companies tighten cost structures and hold back investments to protect cash flow and/or survive, while giant competitors invest through the cycle. The inevitable result of this is the strong get stronger.
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@JohnArnoldFndtn
Difficult to quantify, but at a high level it can be argued that taking the entire supply chain and moving it to a region with 90% lower labor/zero regulatory costs created enough deflation to allow for $20 trillion of fiscal/monetary stimulus and the same 2% inflation outcome.
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@modestproposal1
I would assume the PE firms rolling up local stations (or the publicly traded station cos) would gladly buy a network, which would facilitate the FCC issue. You also have studio issues w the DOJ in any permutation. Not easy path.
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@leadlagreport
@davevermilion
In the tech space mega-cap companies have enormous advantages in the form of scale, cost of capital, access to talent/resources, priority in the supply chain, data, distribution, etc. Barring regulatory intervention it is often difficult to conceive of smaller players succeeding.
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