David Orr
@davidorr_31
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CIO of Orr Capital | Investing tweets are opinions, not financial advice | Assume we have a position
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Absolutely incredible achievement! $ENVX
I wonder who could possibly be the customer... I know $AAPL and $META would surely qualify as "leading California-based technology" companies... 🤔
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One of the questions I get regarding $ENVX is how do I think about valuation especially with customers not expected to come on until 2H24 (IoT) or 2025 (smartphones). Given the noise, what's my north star in the name?
The below is a back-of-the-envelope model. The FAT
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For those following the $ENVX story, below is a list of 7 milestones I am tracking. To me, the daily price moves are just noise and only serve as an opportunity to buy (as long as the company executes to plan).
1) Gen2 FAT by Jan/Feb-24
2) Agility line up by 1Q24
3) Gen2 line up
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In June 2023, Overstock (now $BYON) bought Bed Bath & Beyond and related assets (Wamsutta) for $21.5MM.
Today, $BYON announced it sold Wamsutta for $10.25MM.
$BYON spent less than half of these proceeds ($4.5MM) on Zulily.
@marcuslemonis
is running a tight ship.
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Lemonis appointed Exec Chair will receive stock comp w/ exercise prices that clearly align with driving shareholder value.
*Hypothetically, if $BYON trades to $100, Lemonis & team will have created $3.6B of shareholder value. Lemonis will meet each tranche and receive $105MM.
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Got my hands on the Cowen report on $ENVX. This is why its important to know what you own. Once you do, piss poor analysis like this makes me even more confident I have an edge in this name. Lets go thru just how terrible the analysis is...
1. “AR/VR market is not much of a
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$ENVX REACHES DEVELOPMENT AGREEMENT WITH LEADING SMARTPHONE OEM! ✅
$ENVX to send samples to 6 of the top 8 smartphone battery OEMs making up a $7B+ opportunity.
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Anyone else see this little nugget in $ENVX shareholder 4Q23 letter about a development agreement with a leading automaker..!! Oh and two OEMs that are top 5 in the smartphone market?
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I can’t help but notice the mention of Samsung here as a key customer.
$ENVX continues to execute and I expect the cadence of news to only increase from here as the company checks off more boxes & continues to de-risk our investment.
This opportunity at $ENVX is massive!
Enovix Signs MOU with Leading Consumer Electronics Battery Pack Manufacturer
👉
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Eye on the prize! $ENVX investor is playing for THE NEXT GEN BATTERY - $ENVX is the only 100% active silicon anode battery, which is enabled by its unique battery architecture.
FAT (rigorous process to ensure yield, throughput, machine uptime) complete! Samples & Scale on track!
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Great accomplishment for $ENVX with this stamp of approval from MIDA! Not paying taxes for its first 15 yrs should surely help profitability and help $ENVX ramp investment to meaningfully scale production.
Nice indication about SAT and Agility Line samples! Keep in mind how
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If $ENVX can prove scalability (should be next Q) and announce mega-cap customers (who need hundreds of millions of units), the implied compounding effects are massive...
If Gen2 lines cost $50-$75M and produce 1,350 UPH at $8/unit & 50% margins, each Gen2 line will yield
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Does this cease and desist for $COIN in California take effect immediately and does this apply to all securities - “including but not limited to the Coinbase Staking Offerings”??
cc:
@ParrotCapital
,
@Cryptadamist
,
@NotChaseColeman
,
@coinbase
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Raj Talluri, $ENVX CEO: "$ENVX yields are already at upwards of 95% for Gen2 machines!"
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A lot of people asking me about the ATM in $ENVX, wondering if they will continue to raise equity.
Farhan answered this in May at the JPM conference and told investors they hit the ATM in Q1 and Q2. He also explicitly stated that they are done.
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FAT IS COMPLETE FOR ALL ZONES! ✅
A main pillar of the short thesis was that it would be "impossible to successfully manufacture [Enovix batteries] given unusual and unproven stacking methodology [which] requires highly customized and costly machines."
Now that this is
Eye on the prize! $ENVX investor is playing for THE NEXT GEN BATTERY - $ENVX is the only 100% active silicon anode battery, which is enabled by its unique battery architecture.
FAT (rigorous process to ensure yield, throughput, machine uptime) complete! Samples & Scale on track!
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Great seeing the progress being made at $ENVX. Congrats to
@rajtalluri
& team!
✅Agility Line SAT
✅HVM Line FAT
✅Agreement with mixed-reality headset customer
✅Collaboration agreement with Fortune 200 IoT company (that has "tens of millions of users")
✅2nd Auto OEM agreement
Today we released our Q2 2024 Letter to Our Shareholders detailing our progress.
👉
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This should trigger an automatic removal from the company's board. Don't care if its only 10,412 shares or $100k worth. $BYON is at all time lows.
Mr. Nettles joined the Board in June 2020 when the stock was at $30.
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Great quick update from
@rajtalluri
. No hedging language here. Despite the stock price, Raj's confidence seems strong.
$ENVX met with all smartphone customers at MWC which are all "super excited to get samples from [$ENVX] on EX1M... [they] want to test [EX1M] as soon as we give
In this episode of our podcast, we catch up with Enovix CEO Dr. Raj Talluri and discuss his trip to Mobile World Congress in Barcelona and his Fab2 site visit in Penang last week. 🎧👉
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Just want to resurface how significant the $ICE investment in
@tZERO
is & the appointment of $ICE's David Goone
Dec-2014, $ICE acquired pref stock of $COIN for $10mm, representing a 1.4% ownership
Apr-2021, $COIN IPO'd. Apr-2021, $ICE sold its investment in $COIN for $1.2B
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@joceyreyes209
Depending on implied growth exiting 2026, this $100 may be low. 2026 should be 4 lines but we know it would really take 10 lines to service JUST ONE of those top 8 smartphone OEMs. If growth is 4 lines to 8, 12, 20, 30… $100 is low. If growth includes JV partnerships with EVs,
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@joceyreyes209
This is incredible $ENVX...
✅2nd leading smartphone OEM development agreement expected shortly
✅Supply agreements may occur by end of 2024/early 2025
✅Annual cash burn to $65MM from $110MM
✅Reiterate economics on EX-1M
✅EX-2M economics to be even better $10-$12 at 65% GM.
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- $OSTK is a majority investor in
@tZERO
- $OSTK 's current mkt cap is <$2bn
-
@tZERO
comp valuations: Coinbase: $35bn; OpenSea: $13bn; Gemini: $7bn; Forge: $3bn
- $OSTK has a short interest of 17%
Looking forward to tomorrow! 🚀
tZERO will be ringing the
@NYSE
Opening Bell on April 13 at 9:30am ET to celebrate our leadership in digital innovation with the strategic funding round led by
@ICE_Markets
& the appointment of longtime ICE executive David Goone as tZERO’s new CEO.🔔
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Hey
@joceyreyes209
I think $ENVX /
@rajtalluri
is listening! Estimated cash on cash payback is <1 year. In other words, these are money-printing machines!
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ENOVIX $ENVX BEGINS SAMPLING OF EX-1M
- Samples for IoT AND Smartphone customers
- Agility Line samples on track for Q2
- Consolidating manufacturing of batteries to Malaysia by July
- Reduced fixed costs by over $35MM annually, accelerating path to profitability
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Nice to see
@marcuslemonis
continuing to buy. But where is management and the rest of the Board?
$OSTK is trading as though retail (Bed Bath) and the entire Medici portfolio are worth ~$300mm (combined).
The lack of confidence at lows is alarming.
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Have to imagine
@tZERO
starts to get vocal in the coming months. All competition is going by the wayside. The wild west of unregulated digital assets/crypto seems to have come to an end. Time for this regulated exchange to take centerstage
$TZROP| $OSTK
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Great analysis, Tom Lee!
TOM LEE TODAY:
“Small Caps $IWM will rally 40% by the end of summer.”
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With a ROIC of over 100%, the compounding effects will be massive for $ENVX shareholders.
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Silvergate is a “large accelerated filer.” As a large accelerated filer, it’s due date for its 10K is Mar-1, Wed. I’m expecting to see a delay given the DOJ investigation, key customer legal/BK issues, & overall crypto turmoil. The above put
@CroweUSA
(auditor)in a tough spot $SI
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YES! Accountability is ALWAYS a WIN for shareholders! Change is here! $BYON
@AlderLaneEggs
@John_Thaler_JAT
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@rabbitHoleGoe
@rajtalluri
If the patented architecture is the secret sauce that allows them to reap the benefits on new materials and chemistries (I believe it is), $ENVX has a significant moat that will allow the company to continue to widen its lead over the competition.
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We got banks collapsing left and right and this 75 yo billionaire just gets out of bed and says ~ a world in chaos is still going to need batteries, I’m going to buy $1mm of this (basically) pre-revenue company…
Oh, keep in mind he owns approx. $200mm worth already…
$ENVX
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People only buy for one reason. People sell for thousands.
I stand by what I said before, $BYON could use an upgrade to its Board with people w/ relevant experience & skin in the game.
Nonetheless, its good to know
@marcuslemonis
satisfies both!
This should trigger an automatic removal from the company's board. Don't care if its only 10,412 shares or $100k worth. $BYON is at all time lows.
Mr. Nettles joined the Board in June 2020 when the stock was at $30.
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🧵(1/6) It is no question that I have been disappointed in the lack of progress at
@tZERO
& the company’s lack of comm's. Nonetheless, I’ve taken a step back & tried to rationalize the why here - given the fact that I still meaningfully believe in the market opp/solution…
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One of the biggest parts of the $ENVX short thesis is the capital requirements of the battery business. If what Greg writes is correct, its not going to be hard to raise minimally dilutive capital for production when the returns are 60-90%.
Once $ENVX proves scale by standing up
$ENVX …. With Enovix …. I am constantly keeping my eye on the “Prize”. That “Prize”being my bull thesis.
IF Enovix’s 3d architecture is THE winning architecture for silicon anode batteries … I believe that it is …. They will be very well positioned to take their fair share
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Insiders only buy for one reason $BYON
Hopefully this serves as the “ALL CLEAR” and investors can start to see milestones checked off as the company reaches its true north of building billion dollar brands!
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Its been 2 years since $ICE invested in
@tZERO
and David Goone came over as CEO. I think its time DG and team give investors (and customers!) a State of the Union!
What problems do you expect tZERO to solve? What role do you want to see them play in capital markets?
cc:
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If
@tZERO
is/will be the mktplace for private securities, why not list the Medici portfolio (Beyond's interest) on
@tZERO
's exchange? Holders of $BYON would receive a dividend & those who want more/less exposure can buy/sell on
@tZERO
.
@marcuslemonis
@John_Thaler_JAT
@Pelion_VP
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1/4. I want to thank
@JJohnsonNow
for his service & stewardship. It is no doubt, without his leadership $BYON wouldn't be in the position its in today. I look forward to $BYON's next chapter.
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Share price dictates sentiment. The stock lost momentum at 6PM and after the earnings call was over. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a last ditch effort by short sellers to pressure the stock lower on low volume.
Know what you own $ENVX
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A bank with solvency concerns quickly loses its depositors. A bank that loses its depositors quickly loses its reason to exist.
Coinbase, Galaxy, Paxos, Gemini, CBOE, Cirlce, and more...
The unraveling is happening fast. CAUTION TO ALL $SI
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$COIN is down 72% since $COIN IPO'd and since $ICE sold its stake..
I wonder..
why $ICE sold..
why $ICE didn't look to take $COIN in or partner..
why $ICE decided to step back into crypto/bchain with
#tZERO
..
why $ICE sent over its CSO and why he would agree to such an opp..
🤔
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It's been 3 months since Silvergate issued its statement on FTX exposure. We have not received any information on the internal investigation and how its controls completely failed.
$SI
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Invitations seem to be getting sent out for The Grand Opening of Fab2 with an 8/1 date.
I expect all Agility Line & Gen2 High Volume Line milestones to be complete by then. Over the coming weeks/months, $ENVX will have checked off all major mfg milestones, significantly
@swagpieks
I am still Long Enovix and will be interested in The Grand Opening of The Malaysia Plant August 1. Just keep executing and
@rajtalluri
is clearly up to the Task.
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I don't think "stealth mode" is ending bc DG had an epiphany that
@tZERO
should market & communicate with investors/customers. I suspect when he speaks it will be an unveiling of great things to come.
@AlderLaneEggs
has been a force of nature in $BYON & I expect his effort in
I am working in Scheduling a Spaces Call with David Goone Ceo of
@tZERO
and myself ..Keep your eyes peeled and read into this what you may. $BYON
@marcuslemonis
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Great update from
@EnovixBatteries
team! $ENVX
- Factory Acceptance Testing ("FAT") ahead of schedule.
Zone 1 - Laser Patterning of Electrodes. Already in dry cycling and FAT startup mode. Completing FAT and finishing in Q4; equip. arriving before the holidays.
Zone 2 -
NEW EPISODE! We caught up with Enovix COO, Ajay Marathe, for an update on Gen2 Equipment Factory Acceptance Testing (FAT), the Agility Line, and the status of our Fab2 buildout in Penang, Malaysia. 🎧👉
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Great progress at $BYON. I look forward to tomorrow's call.
- Revenue of $398mm beat by $16mm vs. Q2 guide of flat to Q1 of $382mm
- Adjusted EBITDA improved by 25% sequentially
I'd like to hear more about:
- Monetizing the Bed Bath brand internationally thru licensing/JVs...
Upcoming milestones for $BYON:
- BB&B Store Test in UAE with "one of the largest retailers in the region"
- Agreement to license BB&B in Mexico (omnichannel basis)
- "Final term sheet for a partnership [at OSTK] with one of the largest liquidators in America"
- OSTK to complete
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@stevelevine
What kind of headline is this?
This was discussed by mgmt (
@rajtalluri
) on the last earnings call and guided to in October with the "Strategic Realignment of Fab1 to Improve Efficiency."
The cuts are part of the plan to reduce the fixed cost by more than $35MM -- which is
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Its been 11 months since
@tZERO
launched its new website in January. Investors and customers have had little to go on since ICE invested in Feb-22 besides buzzwords and large TAMs.
I am confident in
@marcuslemonis
's ability to hold the
@tZERO
team accountable AND extract value
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This report seems to be what took some of the momentum out of $BYON recently. The crux of the research is that the analyst is taking in his estimates for 1H24 & compressing his valuation multiples... But if we look out & deeper, does it really matter?
$BYON has line of sight to
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$TRUP had its President, CEO, Chairman and CFO on the call and none of them could answer how the Other Business segment had a decline in its Insured Pets but an increase in the segment’s revenue.
Those audit weaknesses stink!
Other pets #’s ⬇️
Other pets revenue ⬆️
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Just disclosing a $1mm sale of stock on the Friday before the holiday weekend $COIN
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This new
@tZERO
website looks great! Very clean and clear descriptions of services and differentiation.
Nice to see progress here. Much more to come, I am sure!
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As part of the Routejade deal (closed on 11/1/23), Routejade received cash + $ENVX stock. Today, Routejade filed to register these shares.
Of course, this may indicate their intention to sell in the future but they haven't sold yet and the registration lasts until 10/31/24.
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I don’t see anything in here that really changed. Maybe Agility Line pushed a month to Q2 (April) ‘24?
If $ENVX is sampling to top 5 smartphone customers in April for a 2025 launch… is that not exactly what we’ve been playing for since
@rajtalluri
and Ajay joined?
These top 5
For those following the $ENVX story, below is a list of 7 milestones I am tracking. To me, the daily price moves are just noise and only serve as an opportunity to buy (as long as the company executes to plan).
1) Gen2 FAT by Jan/Feb-24
2) Agility line up by 1Q24
3) Gen2 line up
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IMHO, at the current stock price, $BYON is priced for failure. The stock trades at $400mm above net cash.
LTM revenue is $1.6B, and now Overstock just launched its Grand Opening. I'd bet OSTK hits $500MM run-rate by 2Q25. Eventually, maybe after a few milestones are executed
$BYON seems to be moving in the right direction with Overstock.
I look forward to hearing more about new categories/industries, excess & distressed inventory opportunities, partnerships/JV’s, & more ways
@marcuslemonis
plans to monetize the Overstock brand!
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@marcuslemonis
@JackCambell14
@tZERO
@GoodSam
You could issue a dividend to current $CWH shareholders that would entitle them to perks/rewards and this div would trade on
@tZERO
. See below for an example from St. Regis Aspen ($ASPD) on its cash back program. $ASPD represents ~18% ownership in St. Regis Aspen + owner perks.
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Turnaround story. Reset expectations.
Encouraging to see insider (hopefully becomes insiderS*) buying in (via open market share purchases).
Insiders buy for only one reason! $BYON
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New regime here. Ahead of schedule and operating to plan. Very excited about what is in store
@EnovixBatteries
$ENVX
cc:
@rajtalluri
@joceyreyes209
@AlderLaneEggs
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What is the capital allocation strategy at $OSTK? The co has about $10/share in cash ($443m)
- tZERO is fully funded with the latest round
- Medici is fully funded with Pelion partnership
- $OSTK e-com's biz model supposedly allows its to operate profitably in any biz cycle
(1/2)
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$COIN 2Q23 results are going to be brutal:
1) Transaction volumes are down 36% QoQ
2) USDC market cap has gone from $32.5B as of 3/31 to $27.4B as of the end of Q2.
Transaction revenue and interest income are going to crater!
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A great summary of the $ENVX investment thesis as it stands today.
$ENVX …. Reflecting on Enovix strategic position as compared to a year ago I wanted to share the following observations:
- A year ago the Fab2 equipment had just been ordered.
FACTORY ACCEPTANCE TESTING HAS BEEN COMPLETED AND THE FACTORY WILL BE “STOOD UP” THIS QUARTER
- A
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That's a lot of shares sold short in the after market 👀... $ENVX
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Why does an insurance co issue equity to buy its own HQ for $65M?
$TRUP logic: save $2M/yr in rent to fund add'l investments in pet acquisition
🚩Why not just use the $65M issued?
cc:
@ActAccordingly
@CapitolistPig
@AlderLaneEggs
@RasooliSheida
@R5Crosby
@Integrity4mkts
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When a bank's average yield on interest earnings assets is less than its avg rate on interest bearing liabilities, how long can that bank stay solvent? In this example, how about when its noninterest deposits begin to fall by ~70%? $SI
@AlderLaneEggs
@Seawolfcap
@AureliusValue
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Who wouldn’t want this guy captaining their ship? His tenacity and drive alone… Marcus only joined $BYON on October 2, 2023. Looking forward to seeing what else is in store!
A TV show and a shopping technology all in one place…
#TheRenovator
+
@Roku
+
@BedBathBeyond
… coming soon.
#kindness
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(1/2) Now the $BYON Board only has 1 person -
@marcuslemonis
- w/ relevant marketing/consumer experience. It is so obvious who should lead.
Of note, $BYON intends to nominate 3 for this meeting (Class I).
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@marcuslemonis
To be clear, the Company acquired Wamsutta IP as part of the Bed Bath & Beyond transaction. This transaction had a total purchase price of $21.5MM.
So... Beyond effectively owns Bed Bath & Beyond for $11.25MM.
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TJR, the chairman and ~15% of $ENVX, has bought on the past 4 consecutive trading days and 5 of the last 7 trading days. TJR has purchased ~400k shares for $4.2mm. He seems to be signaling these prices are stupidly cheap 🤔
$ENVX
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Seemingly the market only heard the benchmark of guidance for 3Q24 to be down 12-14%, or $350mm (due to seasonality).
A lot of encouraging items in the $BYON call that show improving core biz fundamentals and also incremental low-hanging fruit like licensing IP that should
Great progress at $BYON. I look forward to tomorrow's call.
- Revenue of $398mm beat by $16mm vs. Q2 guide of flat to Q1 of $382mm
- Adjusted EBITDA improved by 25% sequentially
I'd like to hear more about:
- Monetizing the Bed Bath brand internationally thru licensing/JVs...
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@joceyreyes209
This is what we are playing for. See "Goal to launch in *MULTIPLE* smartphone models with progress leading to multiple lines of smartphone battery production"
It just takes ONE for $ENVX production to become 100MM units or $1B revenue.
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For the most part, $BYON holders have viewed tZERO as a lottery ticket, expected value of zero but happy have the option value and potential upside. Eager to see what happens...
$BYON owns 55% of tZERO 👀
🚀🚀🚀is loading the Nuclear Fuel.. I have all the Receipts... Stay tuned
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Short Theory 1: Battery & machinery req'd would be too complex to scale.
On the call, $ENVX raised output per line from 1350 UPH to 1450✅
ST2: $ENVX would need to raise dilutive financing.
$ENVX says would NOT raise equity especially anywhere near this price w/ runway into '26.
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“On top of being a casual felony, an unregistered broker selling unregistered securities would be on the hook for any losses customers had sustained on their platform. That’s an instant death knell.”
How is this *potential* liability accounted for?
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$SI has 104 digital asset exchange clients as of December 31, 2022.
Are there really over 100 compliant exchanges? I'm struggling to name even 10. Can you?
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Nice coverage on
@INX_Group
and STO market
“This model, though, is exactly the kind of thing SEC chief Gary Gensler has been talking about”
Cc:
@tZERO
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Looks like $TRUP drew $25mm on their credit facility. Tell me what insurance company takes on more debt at 10%+ when they are finally generating free cash..
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$ENVX PR reads like a forced restructuring especially w/ the lower production #'s. However, all of this was signaled by mgmt on prior call updates.
End of the day, the thesis has always been can $ENVX execute on Fab2/Gen2 lines & launch w/ leading OEMs. Thesis hasn't changed.
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Can’t control the day to day in stocks but these actions speak volumes. The tone has totally shifted and there’s a real sense of urgency here. $OSTK
Show me the incentive, I’ll show you the outcome.
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Zulily update... Looks like September is the date of the launch. 👀 $BYON 👀
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$OSTK trading at $21 has officially traded below a $1bn market cap. The company has ~$400mm in net cash. $OSTK's medici portfolio has invested $200mm+ in blockchain equity investments. The core biz, e-commerce platform does $2bn in sales, is profitable and has no inventory risk.
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Couldn't agree with Bill here more. If $ENVX can scale the rest falls into place. And my confidence that they can scale has significantly increased since TJR's Jan. presentation. Since then, $ENVX has announced next-gen design approval, its Fab2 location, & big insider buys...
@compound248
@joceyreyes209
@g_oganama
@_emo___boy_
@mcinnes_danny
Dilution isn't the issue, scalability is...if they can scale manufacturing (improving yields go along with this as well) dilution has no place in the discussion....if they can't scale, dilution is irrelevant.
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If you are a shareholder in $BYON, you should be excited about this conversation. $BYON's 55% of
@tZERO
could be greater than the entire market cap of the company today.
Since this is the first time DG will be addressing the public since joining tZERO (joined in 2022), I'd bet
You all thought it would NEVER HAPPEN but HERE WE ARE and this will be Needle Moving!
@tZERO
@StephaneDeBaets
@marcuslemonis
$BYON.. Time to hear it from The Horses Mouths!
35
42
173
2
4
32
Even if you ascribe a 10% probability of
@AlderLaneEggs
being correct on
@tZERO
and
@GrainChain
, the weighted average probability of $BYON’s investment would be greater than $BYON enterprise value.
6
2
31