If you want a mind blowing read, check out the transcript from the $SIVB presentation at the MS TMT conference TWO DAYS ago. Not a question about balance sheet, NIM, deposits etc. Just more fleece vests bros asking questions about SaaS multiples, crypto, and VC trends. Unreal
What's the single greatest buy signal? It's not beat and raise, not a purchase from Buffett or anyone else, it's a stock not going down on bad news. I'm tweeting this out for my own benefit as much as anyone else who reads this. This dynamic is particularly relevent for shorts.
I'm long some $ENVX and candidly I'm exhausted by the magnitude and frequency of tweets on the company. There are some really informative insights being offered, but all of the speculation and expectation creation is a huge waste of time. The stock is highly reliant on narrative
Not sure if anyone has read the 8K for $CVNA. 35MM share ATM offering starting in 3-days. Bond exchange for $4.376B of Notes into $5.4B of Notes,which are PIK for the next 2-years and then 9% or 11% cash pay thereafter. Plus the bondholders have Adesa now. Good luck with that
Today
@BittGlobal
announced its 5th CBDC engagement, this time in the Ukraine (Nigeria, ECB, Barbados, Belize previously). Bitt is 80% owned by $OSTK & we have crickets among investors about a platform that eventually could be worth more than the current mkt cap of $OSTK
#wakeup
My $CHWY envy continues, stock up 10% AH after printing 50% growth and 3% EBITDA margins. Meanwhile $OSTK prints 80%+ growth and 5% EBITDA margins at retail. $CHWY trades at 3.5-4.0x revs, $OSTK at <1.0x. $CHWY has no free call options like
@tZERO
or
@medici_ventures
#JustSaying
I just read the entire $OSTK partnership agreement with Pelion. This is a great deal. Incentives are aligned here given the structure of the carry rate for Pelion. You have a world class venture team now shepparding the Medici portfolio to maturity. Well done
@JJohnsonNow
Unless you've had the experience of doing the work on a short that goes to 0 you really have no appreciation for the grind and emotional toll it can take. You don't have to love
@AureliusValue
or
@AlderLaneEggs
but their commitment warrants your unrelenting respect and admiration
5-10 years from now this could be viewed as a seminal event in the history of capital markets and blockchain based assets. Yes it does sound like hyperbole and execution will matter but its a really big deal
$OSTK
BREAKING NEWS
Okay,
@gemini
was huge, but that doesn’t even compare to this.
Boston Security Token Exchange (
@BSTXLLC
) will be directly competing with NASDAQ and NYSE, but fully-blockchain enabled.
2022 is the year of security tokens!
Count on it.
One week from tomorrow there will be officially TWO central bank digital currencies active in the world: 1) The Sand Dollar in the Bahamas, which is backed by $350B mkt cap $MA, and 2) DCash in the Eastern Carribean, which is backed by
@BittGlobal
, 84% owned by $3B mkt cap $OSTK
Here's a live shot of
@marcuslemonis
after buying millions in stock personally, raising guidance, launching half a dozen growth initiatives, and now increasing the dividend while his stock still trades at 10-11x earnings $CWH
$OSTK
With some execution over the next 3-6 months,
@tzero
will have a platform on which you can trade EVERYTHING, STO's, crypto, stocks, maybe even NFTs.
$10T TAM.
From a listener;"This is very simple. They create an app that lets you trade stocks, crypto, digital, tokens,& nft. Then they plow a ton of money into digital marketing to buy users. Then people do ev/user comp vs coinbase. Then it’s valued at 5b.
@tZERO
@Noursalehi
@JJohnsonNow
Two months ago we published a report entitled "An Activist's Playbook to Help Overstock Reach Its Maximum Potential". The report included 12 issues and solutions to those problems (attached pics). Over the past 8 weeks through the efforts of many shareholders including
$OSTK's
@medici_ventures
portfolio company
@medici_land_gov
signs a 7-year CONTRACT (not to be confused with a pilot project or MOU) with Zambia to provide blockchain based land titling services using their Enum platform.
@Pelion_VP
The crypto space is crumbling and
@tzero
has the backing of $ICE and the
@NYSE
, a world class CEO, and now an unrivaled BOD in this space. Its not just a play on crypto but asset digitization. The human capital flight to tZERO could be monumental as people follow talent
$OSTK
$OSTK owns 84% of
@BittGlobal
whose Dcash digital currency backed by the Eastern Carribean Central Bank just went live a few weeks ago. They have pilots in Barbados and Belize too. $OSTK has some compelling "free call options" embedded in the stock that could be worth BILLIONS
If you think $OSTK will resume industry level growth of 10-15% after 22, that the Medici assets are worth their carrying value (much more IMO), and $OSTK will continue to generate 4-5% EBITDA margins, then by my math $OSTK is trading at about 1.0x 2024 EBITDA or has a negative EV
Based on pre-mkt action, $OSTK is still trading at 12-14x run-rate stand-alone retail EBITDA, a business growing 100% plus. You're getting the ecomm biz at a huge discount and tZERO/Medici for FREE here
I've received quite a few questions on
@tZERO
exiting crypto. Crypto will be a regulatory cesspool for a while with high CAC and increased capital requirements. I view this action as a indictment of crypto trading and a huge endorsement of the pipeline of STO's for
@tZERO
$OSTK
Another lesson in "even with perfect information you might not trade something correctly in the short term" category. I present the weekly chart of $W vs. $OSTK. It goes beyond explanation. Those alligator jaws will close eventually, strongly in the favor for $OSTK IMO
I have no idea how the media will treat this $LK disaster, but the headline really should be PRAISE for
@muddywatersre
and more thoughtful appreciation for the role that short sellers play in the market
This is an incredibly important milestone for tZERO as it seeks to accelerate the pace at which the company can onboard STOs. This is a big step forward.
$OSTK
@Pelion_VP
"If someone came to us today to offer us for $1B for
@tZERO
, we wouldn't give them 10 minutes of time...."
Yet, here we are and public markets are ascribing ZERO value to the entire
@medici_ventures
based on $OSTK's current stock price.
In 2023, people are going to go back and wish they saw this tweet. $OSTK's
@tZERO
platform appears to be on the cusp of some MAJOR developments and is the ONLY regulated platform in the US to trade crypto and security tokens. The backing of the NYSE and $ICE is an added bonus
This $TRUP print. Loss ratios skyrocketing, the promised ARPA gains aren't coming through, retention down, LTV of pet collapsed, and they used $12MM in cash. Of course they drew on their term loan to fund the biz. This should be an interesting call....
When will investors start to get IT on $CWH's future revenue, earnings, and FCF prospects?
@marcuslemonis
is out there almost EVERY SINGLE DAY buying stock. 87K+ shares purchased for $2.8MM. I cannot recall another situation where investors ignored insider buying to this degree
$OSTK's blockchain based land titling platform, Medici Land Governance is set to introduce a digital land titling system for all of Rwanda in the coming months.
@Pelion_VP
I think
@marcuslemonis
did a brilliant thing on his 4Q21 call. $CWH pulled guidance. $CWH got ZERO credit for their guidance even though they crushed numbers for 2 yrs. Do your own work. I love the biz on my stress tested results with a 7-8% divvy yield and declining sharecount
Things are really starting to align for
@tZERO
. It's just a matter of execution going forward and making sure the company has the right human capital in place to seize on its ENORMOUS opportunity
$OSTK
tZERO partnered with
@FamilyOfficeNet
to connect with its global network of 500k users, including 15k+ family offices & 60k+ high-net-worth investors, with an innovative, regulated tech solution that provides a path to secondary liquidity on the tZERO ATS.
If you understand anything about markets, trading systems, exchanges, clearing, or settlement, you recognize that this is an ENORMOUS development. Now
@tzero
's vision to have a fully integrated platform for trading of STOs, crypto, and NMS (stocks) can come to fruition.
$OSTK
PAA Research Report: OSTK: The SEC’s Approval of the BSTX Exchange Could Represent a Seminal Event in the History of Capital Markets and the Blockchain
For those that loved the $W print, here's a refresher on $OSTK: Overstock is like $W but trades at HALF the multiple even though it is growing 45-50% faster, has a better track record of profitability and has a handful of blockchain based investments potentially worth billions
Those that follow $OSTK closely have been hyper focused on
@tzero
and
@BittGlobal
. Rightfully so given their opportunity set. People have been sleeping on
@GrainChainIO
which is CRUSHING IT and could be the company from the Medici portfolio to go public
Trying to figure out when the "Value" factor will start to trump the supposed "COVID19" factor for $CWH. Not often you can buy an industry leader with a long growth run way for <7x EPS. I don't think people understand how much HIGHER the new floor in EBITDA is for $CWH
Since going public 10+ yrs ago $Z $ZG has barely outperformed the S&P, and underperformed the NASDAQ by 100%+ despite all of the mgmt genius there and huge Rev/EBITDA growth. The primary culprit? Egregious SBC. The share count in FY12 was 66MM. Now it's 250MM+.
#dilutionmatters
PSA for those interested in $OSTK and
@tZERO
. I will be on the call on 3/10. I have plenty of questions to ask but I know you have many as well. Send me your questions, if they're good queries I haven't thought of, I will try to ask them on the call. DMs are open.
If you've never watched the Wall Street Week epsidoe from Oct. 23, 1987, it's well weather a watch. Louis Ruykeser was incredible in this moment. Something about the intro music and visuals always makes me happy.
We live in historic times...
$OSTK's
@voatz
gets invited to the RFP to manage online voting for the May 2022 presidential election in the Phillipines. To say
@voatz
can become a multi-billion dollar biz probably does not do it justice.
@AlderLaneeggs
@JJohnsonNow
NFT's are the stepping stone from Bitcoin to Security Tokens
I have a feeling the security token industry is going to absolutely blow up within the next two years.
Companies like
@INXLimited
,
@tZERO
,
@Securitize
are gonna make this happen... get ready. Do your research.
$CWH trades like some sort of "trapdoor" EPS scenario is $2.00. Now they're paying out that much in a dividend. This isn't the $CWH of 18/19, eventually investors will figure that out. Here's a glaring signal of prospective earnings power.
@AlderLaneeggs
I'm not one to slam the sellside, but color me a little bit frustrated with BofA today. Initiaties on $OSTK with a neutral with 0 mentions of the GSA contract, 1 reference to tZERO, and estimates that are so absurdly low and non-sensical. The good news: $OSTK will crush estimates
If you've never looked at $BYON before, I would encourage you to take the time to LISTEN (not read the transcript) to the company's 4Q23 earnings call. Investors, vendors, and customers are quickly realizing that this is a new day and new dynamic way at $BYON. It won't be
@AlderLaneEggs
@marcuslemonis
@JJohnsonNow
Give
@marcuslemonis
a week or so and he'll probably own more OSTK than the rest of the Board combined. He already owns more than most of the mgmt team. His $500K purchase was more than the entire mgmt and Board bought over the past 5-yrs COMBINED. Another 1 of the 12 issues we
We just published a "must read" report on $TRUP (for those who care) backed by findings from FOIA requests. Regulatory scrutiny is escalating RAPIDLY while operating performance continues to deteriorate. You can find it here.
$OSTK's tZERO has the assets, regulatory approvals, and platform in place to fulfill the role that Robindhood was supposed to be. The coming months will be interesting to see how this changes the growth trajectory of
@tZERO
, especially with
@Pelion_VP
on board
@AlderLaneeggs
What’s happening with $GME & $AMC demonstrates why a more efficient and transparent blockchain-based securities ecosystem is more relevant than ever. On a decentralized platform, this would not happen.
@tZERO
#blockchain
#digitalsecurities
Just a reminder, that
@marcuslemonis
has ambitions to be the leader in the $70B camping industry, not just the RV space. Listen to the call, take a moment to appreciate all of the services and products he's layering in around his core business. $CWH will dominate the space
For those interested in really understanding how big the TAM is for $OSTK's
@tZERO
watch the following convo with
@StephaneDeBaets
about the upcoming St. Regis Aspen STO launch and the implications for the global CRE industry.
#readytolaunch
$OSTK
$OSTK In case you didn't know, it's a new era at the company characterized by high quality management and fantastic execution. The company delivers for customers and stakeholders alike
It’s been 15 months since Patrick left
@Overstock
. We’re in the e-commerce business and the blockchain business. Those promoting any boycott of our businesses are directing their efforts in the wrong direction.
If you're looking for an analog on how Citadel might be playing this Melvin/$GME/
@RobinhoodApp
fiasco, remember that back in the early 2000's Citadel invested in Comscore so they could get exclusive rights to their traffic data DAYS before anyone else. Same game, different name
Hmmm....
Haas (CFO of Coinbase) remarked that "hopefully someday soon we are going to make the right investments and get the right licenses and build the ecosystem that we want, that there can be security tokens, maybe on Coinbase, but maybe on other companies."
$OSTK
@tZERO
$OSTK mgmt coming out strong on this call, guidance looks solid relative to street, talking up stock buybacks, Medici investor day coming 5/10. Seminal event in capital markets with the Goone appointment at tZERO. $OSTK retail trades at <6x EBITDA ex CARRYING VALUE of Medici
Never had a position in $TSLA, but there's one dynamic I'm highly confident in: There are many investors that have a great grasp on the fundamentals, but it seems no one has an understanding of what matters for the stock. If you don't know the rules of the game, how do you play?
Good overview of the accomplishments of
@voatz
in 2020: 23 elections, 200K+ used their app to vote, another 1.6MM+ used their tech to vote. ZERO ISSUES.
My guess is these numbers increase BIGLY in 2021 and 2022.
Seems like there's quite a bit of value here...
$OSTK
$OSTK back to trading at 15-20x retail EBITDA and <1.5x revenues. For now it appears investors are once again ascribing NO value to tZERO & the rest of the Medici portfolio and are either ignorant or indifferent to the GSA rev opportunity which should eclipse any COVID19 benefit
Amazon: Bailout Nation, Written by Barry Ritholtz, this book explores how the US evolved from a rugged independent nation to a soft Bailout Nation-where financial firms are allowed to self-regulate in good times, but are bailed out by taxpayers in bad times.
PPP loan recipient
Is there any reason why people are paying a higher multiple for $W relative to $OSTK when it's growing half the rate? Then you consider the massive optionality you get for FREE in
@tzero
and the rest of the Medici assets. This gets resolved one way or another
@AlderLaneeggs
Let's see if
@medici_ventures
has some real news for us next week. Here's another large collaboration for
@SettleMintCom
. People are sleeping on progress at some of these companies but $OSTK mgmt hasn't helped nor has
@tZERO
. Goone can't take shareholder capital and say nothing
1 week ago people were questioning
@tzero
's exit from Crypto. Now $13B mkt cap $COIN whines to regulators amidst an industrywide regulatory rationalization. 2 things are obvious:
1) tZero mgmt's connections are unparalleled
2) It's tZERO's field and game to play now
$OSTK
I've received quite a few questions on
@tZERO
exiting crypto. Crypto will be a regulatory cesspool for a while with high CAC and increased capital requirements. I view this action as a indictment of crypto trading and a huge endorsement of the pipeline of STO's for
@tZERO
$OSTK
$TRUP's underwriter in Canada, Omega, wrote $183MM in premiums in FY22, generated ZERO profits, and has been in the process of being sold for more than 2+ yrs
The agreed upon purchase price: $9.3MM.
The multiple: 1.15x book value
That would be $5-$6 for $TRUP at that multiple
$OSTK's
@Voatz
is out raising $10MM. Anyone who's interested in being a force of change in voter access and security should probably look into this. I'd like to see them build out their biz dev team and hire more politically connected types.
Every time I read through the $NFLX financials, I think of the McKinsey study "Grow Fast or Die Slow" which has dominated strategy discussions for every TMT TAM story this cycle from $AMZN to angel. Has the ? "Can this grow?" trumped "is this a good biz?"
Congrats to all of those that did tremendous work on $RILY. I'm sure there will be a few more zigs and zags on this ultimate march to zero. I read the original
@WolfpackReports
report again this AM. Like all of the best shorts, the more people dug the worse things appeared.
$BYON Medici portfolio company
@settlemint
working with
#Sony
to develop stablecoin for its gaming properties to reduce friction points around in game payments.
In our recent "activist playbook" on $OSTK "enhancing and expanding" the Board was one of our most critical recommendations. Adding
@marcuslemonis
to the Board is a HUGE step in the right direction. This is a leapfrog improvement in governance. Expect a lot more positive changes
$OSTK's
@medici_ventures
portfolio company
#Settlemint
works with $BUD to track barley crop from the farm to breweries. Settlemint offers blockchain middleware solutions.
Why does the mkt ascribe ZERO (if not negative value) to $OSTK's Medici portfolio?
$CWH crushed 3Q21 results while new unit sales declined. That in effect is the thesis. Perhaps people will start to understand the true drivers of EBITDA growth going forward. Watch the service bays number (up 17% YOY), that's the starting point for predictable high margin FCF
$OSTK. That's 6,000+ investors that will be onboarded onto the
@tzero
platform. My hope and expectation is that you'll start to see a steady cadence of assets come on board over the next 3-4 months
Mark your calendars: Trading of the
@exodus_io
Class A common stock will commence on September 14, 2021, making it the fourth digital security to trade on the tZERO ATS.
Over the past 60+ yrs, there have only been 2 periods in which housing building permits declined more than (-20%) YOY without a corresponding/subsequent recession: 1) 1987 crash, 2) 1966 credit crunch. Said another way, housing is the business cycle and the chart tells the story
I can say first hand from the conversations I'm having with potential issuers that STO issuance volume should jump dramatically in the next 6-12 months. I still don't think investors understand the magnitude of the pipeline. $OSTK
@tZERO
@AlderLaneeggs
Maybe just maybe we're about to see a steady cadence of new issuance on the
@tZERO
platform. Goone doesn't say much so when he does it's probably worth paying attention to.
$OSTK
With $BBBY in imminent restructuring and $W in retrenchment (at best), it looks like anywhere from $3-$5B in annual home furnishings spend is up for grabs. $OSTK is well positioned to capture those sales with vendor momentum, + FCF, and cash war chest.
@JJohnsonNow
take advantage
What a day for
@BenRabidoux
. For those that have done any work ever in the Canadian housing market, you know how unethical the Fortress guys have been for YEARS. Sad it took this long to happen, but glad the RCMP has finally done something.
The absence of press directly from $OSTK shouldn't be interpreted as an indicator of lack of progress or enormous value at the
@medici_ventures
companies. Here's
@BittGlobal
signing a HUGE deal with the central bank of Nigeria to help launch their CBDC:
GrainChain added over 8,000 new users over the past year, tripling our userbase to over 12,000. Most of these new users are small-scale producers from Central America. Learn more at .
#levelingtheplayingfield
No question in my mind that $APPH/$APPHW traded off today because the brokers increased margin requirements. It used to be that you would get a margin call when your stocks went down. Now it's the opposite.
Either way I'm looking forward to ETF/ESG buying of the "bionic tomato"
I'll listen to the Medici event for $OSTK. I know
@GrainChainIO
is doing fantastically well. As for
@tZERO
, they might say something, but more likely than not people won't care. That's what happens when you go silent for a yr. Not the way to craft a narrative.
@JJohnsonNow
McNeill Investment Group - nationally-recognized hospitality real estate investment platform with over $600M of AUM across nearly 3,000 hotel rooms. - primary issuance opportunity now live on
@tZERO
👀
How long until we see something similar happen for
@tZERO
which is 80% owned by $OSTK? How much of the value of tZERO is reflected in the price of $OSTK? (hint, it's zero)
Asking for a friend
@AlderLaneeggs
@Noursalehi
@JJohnsonNow
Never forget: Your stocks are going up for the right reasons, everyone else's holdings are being inflated by the bubble
The "not my stock" cognitive bias is one of the most difficult mental traps to escape in this industry, especially for those that pursue fundamental analysis
It seems no one wants to put even a penny of value on the
@medici_ventures
portfolio if the price of $OSTK is any guide, however
@Pelion_VP
keeps making progress on a number of fronts. Low and behold
@evernym
was sold today. Much bigger things to come IMO
Brokers starting to screw around with margin requirements as they did in late Jan/Feb. How many more days before they clean out all of the shorts so we can have another sharp sell-off in growth/meme/shitco stocks?
This guy raises money at a $60MM valuation straight out of the biggest fraud of the past decade and no one's willing to ascribe a penny of value to tZERO?
$OSTK
$COIN - Former FTX US head raises $5M from Coinbase, Circle to build out new crypto venture
@HiddenPivots
@AlderLaneEggs
@JeroenMensen
@JJohnsonNow
@marcuslemonis
To put this presentation in context, Allison Abraham has been on the board of $OSTK for roughly 20 yrs, during which time she has delivered absolutely ZERO for shareholders. Literally. The stock is trading 23% above its IPO price 21+ years ago. 1% 21 year CAGR for shareholders.
For those that STILL don't get how good the
@Pelion_VP
team really is, they're an early investor in Divvy, which is rumored to be acquired by $BILL for $2B+. $OSTK's
@medici_ventures
is now being managed by Pelion and I couldn't be happier
@AlderLaneeggs
I spend a lot of nights thinking about that Venn diagram. EXECUTION now is the key for
@Noursalehi
. New capital and
@PelionVP
onboard increases the likelihood of success meaningfully.
You won't find a bigger FREE call option in a stock
$OSTK
@AlderLaneEggs
@tZERO
For whatever reason, people ascribe zero value to this exciting portfolio of blockchain based companies, even though one of Medici Ventures companies sold for $49.4MM in 4Q21.
@evernym
The street is completely asleep, indifferent, or ignorant about their potential
$OSTK
The mishandling of the communication around developments at the Medici Ventures portfolio is high on my list of 12 issues that need to be fixed to drive massive shareholder value creation for $OSTK. Imagine serving as a GP in a VC fund but not receiving any updates on the
$OSTK So am I the only shareholder perplexed by the complete lack of news about last weeks events regarding Tzero and Bitt. Both BITT and Tzero are companies under the Medici Umbrella which is wholly owned by OSTK? Below are just a few recent links to what I would think would
$BYND will go down as one of my best shorts of all-time for PA purposes and all I had to do was go to the grocery store during COVID19. Not a steak to be found in the place but you could have all of the $BYND product you could find. Admittedly, I did look at their financials,
File this in the "even with perfect information, you might only get the day to day price action 50% of the time" category there's $CWH today: RV shipments up 50% YOY for July, CEO buying stock everyday (15K yday), & $LAZY up 5%, yet here we are with $CWH shares down >10%.
A little speechless on the Needham downgrade of $OSTK this AM. Current mkt cap $850MM, $9.00/share of cash meaning the EV will be $450MM at the open.
CARRYING VALUE of Medici assets is $311MM (worth plenty more IMO).
Which means the implied valuation of retail is $150MM?
By no means am I a macro guy, but I'm a pretty strict adherent to the principle of "housing is the business cycle". Either housing related stocks are a buy or the $SPY is a sale,no matter what these jaws must close. My bias is the latter. $XHB $SPY
@MarkYusko
$OSTK continues to eleveate the caliber of its human capital across the organization. This time with addition of Barbara Messing formerly of $WMT and $TRIP to the board of directors. This is increasingly becoming a hallmark of the
@JJohnsonNow
regime.
Some derivative winners of the $GME fiasco:
1)
@stoolpresidente
when he launches his own mobile based B/D
2) Blockchain based trading.
3)
@briankoppelman
kind of like the Knicks tragedy,
@SHO_Billions
keeps writing itself
4) The plaintiffs bar, where the winning never stops
As of this AM, IMO the "book/runoff" value in $SI is DEAD. Even in runoff, not one $ can be distributed to investors given regulatory inquiries and litigation. $SI could burn $3-$6/share in opex/legal fees annually for YEARS in a runoff BEFORE a single fine or settlement is paid