Keith McCullough
@KeithMcCullough
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CEO, Hedgeye Risk Management
Stamford, CT
Joined December 2008
I’ve spent 24 years perfecting my investing process for family and clients. I’m sharing that blueprint—for FREE. Download my new 52-page eBook today: It's called, “Master the Market: A Hedge Fund Manager's Guide to Process and Profit.". Whether you’re
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Mark my tweets. Within 3-6 months, US #INFLATION will be re-accelerating . And the Fed will tell you "no one" saw it coming.
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This is worse than the Dot Bomb Bubble, by a lot.
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The only way to really learn is to lose real money.
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PE Powell is trying to bailout bad corporate borrowers, not The People. That's just a fact.
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Unfortunately I tested positive for #Covid yesterday. Grinding through it and will be back soon.
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Fed to buy a broad portfolio of rich people's shit.
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The US Stock market could be down -5.4% tomorrow and no one should be surprised.
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We're already IN A RECESSION from an Industrial perspective
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Is it typical of a new bull market to be limit down, the next day?.
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This is fall of the Roman Empire type shit at this point.
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US DEBT @SecYellen . Rewind the clock to 2006. Guess what the amount of US Debt outstanding held by the public was in 2006? $15 Trillion? No. $11 Trillion? No. $5 Trillion? Close, but still no. At the end of 2006, there was a measly $4.83 Trillion in debt outstanding. Yes, $4.83
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US TREASURIES: China + Japan now holding just under 8% of the total, compared with a high of 25.4% in 2007.
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The risk just went up that the US stock market crashes, twice, in 2020.
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It's a good thing there's no corporate credit bubble.
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BREAKING: Fed devalues the US Dollar and Purchasing Power of The American People.
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If $SPX is down -8.1% next week, no one should be surprised.
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I'm neither a Republican nor a Democrat (I am Canadian). but can't figure out how a crony compiled $2.2 TRILLION bailout package is part of anything but what I'd call a Socialist Party.
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If you aren't dumping your life savings into this FOMO Futures rally, you have no idea.
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Way back in my early hedge fund days, we had this one guy my boss kept on the payroll so that he could do the opposite of what the guy was "feeling" about the market. We called him The Contra Indicator.
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US DEBT. According to data from the Treasury, the federal government added $275 BILLION in debt to its balance sheet last weekend. The federal balance sheet is deteriorating, and their income statement is an absolute disaster. According to the same source, in the.
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California just shut down their beaches again - sounds like a V.
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Hedge Fund friends, don't blame The Game. Become a better player.
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Short selling is about unearthing liars and story tellers who use CNBC to pump and dump their equity for their self interest @chamath.
"Here's the thing about short-selling: I find it curious that we don't look at that more," says @Chamath. "It's about creating sentiment shift and volatility, then profiting from that. I would love for folks to figure out whether that should be allowed or not." #DeliveringAlpha
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"I don't understand. Why does anyone deserve to get wiped out".-Scott Wapner . Epic moment of #truth on a channel that perpetuates bubble chasing and immoral behavior
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Real world test: go to Target today and stand outside the door. Tell a Mom with 3 kids that "CPI is down to 7.7%, so you should buy more today". Let me know how that goes
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In case you're new to this, you know that both Commodities and Bond Yields only Crash when the US is entering a Recession.
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Hey @chamath - would love to have you on @HedgeyeTV for what we call Real Conversations . Wapner's disdain for your free market capitalist thoughts were sadly predictable. We'll keep it real.
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China just made-up the best made-up # I've ever seen them make up > China March official manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs 35.7 in prior month.
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Powell is "restoring low inflation" with a panic -50bps Rate Cut?. No. He's setting the foundation for re-accelerating inflation.
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"It's not clear to me how buying Junk Bonds is good for The People" -Senator to PE Powell $JNK.
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On that market close. There is massive manipulation going in VIX options contracts . Someone BIG. Per one of the better Chicago guys who "sees" The Game . "They are coming again on the front Vix future offer. Trying to stop the Friday collapse".
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When the bubble starts popping again, you'll all see it coming.
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BREAKING: "better than expected" jobs report, bahahahahaha.
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Surely, on the next leg down for US "stocks", "no one" will have seen the risks developing everywhere.
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Yesterday's stock market ramp = largest since 2008. Today's rate cut, largest since 2008. Does anyone remember what happened post that in 2008?.
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Are there bears left or am I going to be lonely?
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BREAKING: Fed provides no transparency on rate hike/timing . And will let Goldman know later on whatever is next.
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PRE VIRUS, plenty of Private Equity, Hedge Fund, and Asset Managers piled into speculative Stocks & Bonds at their ALL-TIME HIGHS. Then their one-way bets #crashed. Then they begged their boys for a bailout plan - and they got it . Taxpayers pay for their mistakes. They get paid
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Options Bubble: Friday's 8.4 MILLION contracts = largest SPY Put Volume of all time
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Post the biggest stock market crash since 1987. Great job!.
BIGGEST STOCK MARKET RISE IN HISTORY YESTERDAY!.
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STAGFLATION (Dollar Down, Cost of Living for Americans Up). Last week's Commodities Inflation:. Corn +7.6%.Coffee +6.8%.Oil +5.6%.Sugar +5.3%.Lumber +3.4%
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Not one of these clowns on CNBC calling "bottoms being in" called the top being in, ever.
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Worst US Retail Sales report ever, and ever is a long fn time.
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If you bought $AMZN at +19% in the post market, you are an idiot.
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US Mortgage DELINQUENCIES saw their largest monthly increase ever in April, effectively doubling from 3.4% to 6.5%. Roughly 9% of US Mortgages (more than 4.7 million loans and >$1T nominal loan value) are currently in forbearance. #V-Shapes.
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That's just an embarrassing tweet, bud.
Amazing Quarter for the Markets!!! The DOW has the best quarter in 33 years (up 17.77%). Likewise the NASDAQ is up 30.63% in 90 days! Congrats to all 401k’s! 🔥🔥🔥
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Buffett does cash flow and balance sheet analysts - he doesn't do FOMO.
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CURVE: if you don't think this is an economic signal, you're a fucking idiot
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As a reminder, Thursday was also the BIGGEST Call Option Volume DAY EVER . And ever, is a long time
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Yep, Powell is going to have to buy a shit ton of Oil.
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Once the Fed is done Bailing out Junk Bond holders, gotta buy a shit load of Oil @federalreserve.
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In the last thirty days, the US Government has added some ~$600 BILLION to its balance sheet. On an annualized basis, this is ~$7.2 TRILLION
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I'd personally pay Powell @FederalReserve $1 Million dollars of my own money to have to answer my questions in front of The People for 30 minutes (not 60).
@KeithMcCullough How much can we raise to have you and J Powell in a 60 minute interview!?.
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When many people in life don't like the score, they whine, complain, and even lie about why. Winners accept losing as the greatest opportunity to learn, evolve, and progress
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Lemmings, I am here to sell you AI Stories and $10 BILLION in stock tonight $NVDA
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The Suits are lying to you about the US economy. Period.
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"Best day for stocks since 1933". By 1933, nearly half of America’s banks failed, unemployment was approaching 15 million people (30% of the workforce). #Facts.
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People who think this isn't 2008 are right. It's 2020. This isn't about banks. It's about Buy Side Leverage and a lack of Liquidity.
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When a hedge fund "shuts down" a book, they COVER all the shorts - that's obvious right now in single stock action . It's not bullish.
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I covered literally every US Equity Short around the lows on Monday. Those are all booked gains. Some of the shorts I put on in the last 2 days are unrealized losses. I wouldn't keep them on if I didn't think the crash will resume.
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Gold +10.8% YTD vs. Silver -17.4% (one is a currency, the other is not).
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On my new book, I just wanted to thank everyone for the kind compliments so far . An incredible number of people have downloaded it (maybe because its FREE! lol) . Download my new 52-page eBook today:
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This is called a Bear Market. 1. Cycle Peak #in NOV 2021.2. 3 rallies to lower-highs.3. -23.9% from Cycle Peak
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At a bare minimum, I'm buying at a better risk managed price than my buddy @michael_saylor did recently #BTC.
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What happened to all the storytellers on Russians buying Bitcoins at 44k?
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Epic Bubble Chart from my friend on ye Olde Wall
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Agreed.
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Just finishing up my night shift of measuring and mapping data. I used to de-grease the GM auto body shop floor at nights. So I consider this line of work a privilege. Thanks for the follows.
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Biggest monthly decline in the UST 10yr Yield since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 . Nothing to see here.
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Having a view on an epic day for Crony Socialism (PE Powell bailing out Private Equity and High Yield Debt holders) is one thing. Risk managing (trading) it is entirely another. All who define themselves as "free market capitalists" should be absolutely disgusted today
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How many jobless Americans own the Nasdaq?.
NASDAQ HAD ITS 23RD RECORD CLOSE OF THE YEAR. OTHER EXCHANGES ARE FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL REMAINING. BIG MONTHS UPCOMING. NEXT YEAR, DEPENDING ON AN ELECTION WIN, WILL BE ONE OF THE BEST EVER! @LouDobbs.
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BREAKING: US Futures Rally on not being limit down for once on a Monday.
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BREAKING: Google to unfire people because of the CPI.
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USA's Yield Curve = worst since the 1981 Recession
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Very straightforward pivot here by Powell - he pivoted to MORE hawkish! ha.
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So we're going to solve an epic super-late-cycle corporate debt problem with more debt #cool.
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If you didn't know that this guy is completely full of shit, now you know @CNBC #FTXbankruptcy
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I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I've been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed. -Michael Jordan
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Global Times: Beijing is ready to take countermeasures against the U.S., such as putting U.S. companies on an "unreliable entity list" and imposing restrictions on U.S. companies like Apple, Cisco, and Qualcomm. The report also mentioned halting the purchase of Boeing airplanes.
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