Chairlift Capital
@ChairliftCap
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I fully understand why China banned crypto. This is collapse of society type stuff.
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@invertedfragil1 It gets scary when internet money turns into irl influence (politics etc) . Think there are also incentive type stuff. For example: why work and contribute to society when you can sit on Discords all day?.
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For a job that is almost entirely location independent, it is a bit odd that so many hedge funds are based in NYC.
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Every “traditionally” wealthy person I know in NYC lives an exhausting life. Always driving to their house in the Hamptons or a country club in the suburbs, always going to charity events or fundraisers. It seems like it kind of sucks.
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Old Wall Street guys are so much cooler than young finance people today. Many more resumes like "SUNY grad to pricing analyst to distressed debt trader to head of risk to family office PM" . Now everyone is either a pod analyst or a MF PE associate.
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The real sign of a finance OG is when they use prior names of firms instead of their modern equivalent.
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How many people in finance ever actually retire at a youngish age? I feel like people talk about it much more than it actually happens.
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Increasingly convinced ~95% of daily happiness is achieved from:. Adequate sleep.Touching grass .Working out .Having a short commute .Interacting with other humans.
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AMZN went from "behind on AI" to in arguably the best strategic position in like 8 months.
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The death of sell-side research has maybe never been more clear than it is with recent DeepSeek news.
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You are managing a brand new investment analyst, fresh out of school. What are the 3/4 things you tell them to focus on when evaluating new ideas? What general framework do you give them?. 1) Path of forward estimates .2) Narrative change .3) Valuation/risk reward.
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@curbyourfomo1 First one that has internet level distribution and accessibility is the difference.
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The DINKs in Williamsburg who don’t own a car and have close friends nearby and fly to a few vacations a year seems like a way more enjoyable life.
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Value guys pitching COST at 45x EPS as cheap but enterprise software at 40x FCF as too rich.
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It always amazes me that there are maybe 5 hedge fund analysts that drive the narrative on any given stock.
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Something I’ve been thinking more about with careers is how much your day to day job compounds. For example, some careers are always at the mercy of their trailing PnL so there is little compounding, others build networks that lead to more intros that does compound.
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I think median hedge fund analyst happiness would be much higher if they were all not in NYC but I may be projecting.
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What a perfectly executed career. TG brand and capital on the way up and leverage that into a fund launch at the bottom .
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AI makes me very bullish on finance as a career. Partly the return of thinkbois but more so I believe most of the returns of AI will accrue to capital, not labor.
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Much of the frustration with the PM/analyst relationship comes from really two things: 1) clear attribution and 2) who owns the risk . A lot of this can be solved with systems/processes.
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It’s not hard to understand why public markets materially outperform private markets: better businesses, at cheaper valuations, growing earnings at similar or often faster rates.
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Question for the analysts: what is the highest ROI activity you do in your day job? . Checks, modeling, reading (if so what), talking to companies, etc.
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Making the interns take off their shoes before getting on the yacht is a move.
We asked all 345 summer interns to write our monthly note setting the August tone for @Jefferies. Click to read the 4 winners:.
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It feels right that WDAY and ADSK report on the same night: two of the most competitively advantaged businesses on earth run by the most inept management teams you’ve ever seen.
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I will say it again: if CRWD NOW and MSFT are missing numbers, god help your favorite smid cap software company trading at a HSD sales multiple.
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Has anyone seen people move from public equity to private or from equity to credit?.
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For all the hate public company executives tend to get, they are without a doubt consistently some of the most impressive people I’ve ever met.
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I’m hesitant to share personal news on here but others have been so…
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A founder dragging a former CEO very publicly on social media is not an awesome look . I’m not sure who thought this was a good idea.
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I think every single time I come out to CA I question why on earth I live in NYC.
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This is the most “I expect this to come out in an anti trust trial” email I’ve ever seen.
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Interestingly, I think many finance-types would be much happier and fulfilled in life if they made much less money.
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Every good investor I’ve met is obsessed with the bear case on their longs. They seek out disconfirming evidence like a paranoid detective. There is no room for confirmation bias in long-term compounding.
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What is the first thing you’d tell a brand new analyst on the job? . I’ll go first: don’t be shy.
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Why do VC and PE funds put everyone on the investment team on their website but HFs and LOs really don’t?.
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It’s not CS, that’s CSFB or even DLJ. Arthur Andersen somehow still exists . GLG is always Gerson Lehrman . Pac Crest never became KeyBanc.
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ServiceNow’s investor day is head and shoulders above anyone else’s in software. More and better data, more insightful strategies insight, clear and concise scripts and better narrative forming.
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Li Lu on at 830pm ET tomorrow with Professor Greenwald for a discussion on value investing in China . Register here: .
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Increasingly think macro PM is the best gig in finance. Don’t really need to be right just need to be “different” in the eyes of allocators.
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The sell side downgrading a stock at the lows: a tale as old as time.
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What are the best time management tips for public equity investors? Biggest cost in this business is the opportunity cost of the stock you missed. How do you try and avoid or at least minimize that?.
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How are more people not talking about this? . This is like a top 5 scientific breakthrough in history.
BREAKING NEWS: This is an announcement that has been decades in the making. On December 5, 2022 a team from DOE's @Livermore_Lab made history by achieving fusion ignition. This breakthrough will change the future of clean power and America’s national defense forever.
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Checks on CRWD are coming back pretty consistent with:. 1) No impact on churn.2) Some impact on net new ARR growth.3) No legal liability. This cuts off your left tail outcome of churn + big legal payouts. 30b in equity value feels like a lot for a win rate coming down a few pts.
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Another example of why the brand of the organization you are working at is much more valuable than your own contributions to said organization . B performer at an A shop > A performer at a B shop.
Former Tiger Global Management partner John Curtius is targeting $1 billion for a debut fund focused on early-stage investments.
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The real path to wealth? You must break out labor and own capital. If RE and SMB Twitter has taught me anything, it’s how stacked the deck is against labor and for capital. Things like 1031s, depreciation tax shield, and leverage are small advantages that compound over years.
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SBC is something that novices like to debate but practitioners rarely think about.
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Transcripts >>>> Ks and Qs, and it isn’t even close.
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What percent of public equity investors are still public investors 10 years later? I think the percentage may be shockingly low.
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Having a good family life and being awesome at your job is a superpower.
I sometimes find myself thinking "how does this person have so much time to do XYZ" and the answer is almost always they don't have kids.
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There is immense alpha in connecting with old head Wall Street guys.
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The questions people ask management teams in group meetings never cease to amaze me.
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Was talking with a buddy and we both concluded that few people every really get properly trained in this business. There are very few real “mentors” out there for all the talk about this being a mentorship business.
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The internet bullying by anon FinTwit accounts, looking up peoples LinkedIn’s, talking to people at their job, etc is really not a good look.
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Early software EPS learnings:. 1) SMB has finally cracked .2) Cloud trends getting worse .3) Europe not falling off a cliff .4) Stocks have been resilient despite squishy results.
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They're scrambling to host calls when stocks have already moved materially and opening calls with "I'm not an expert. ".
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A software pod boy will argue with the passion of a trial lawyer that ADBE is a zero before covering his short two days later.
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Say what you want about SVB but this is perhaps the dumbest bank run of all time.
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Reading VIC comments between a hand wavy more qualitative investor and an incremental datapoint type more quantitative investor is like reading a Swede try and talk to an Italian.
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When people start saying their competitors should be banned, that's when you know they're screwed.
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@SaaScalSiakam How can you put this shit in a model with a straight face. Why even build the “model”? And why put it on GH? Do they believe their investors buy ARKK because of this?.
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Looking for a 9.5b valuation on 575m in revenue in 22. We are so back.
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ADBE at a market PE multiple strikes me as having not a ton of downside.
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Another question for the analysts as conference season is just around the corner. What is your single favorite question to ask a management team?.
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People dunk on software investors for paying exorbitant multiples, but I think it’s really the consumer analysts that underwrite the whackiest valuations . There’s a long list of fads, frauds and straight up silly stuff in that sector. At least software is generally a good biz….
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For all the hand wringing about market structure, this is the most “fundamentals driven” the market has been in the last 30 years
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Keeping a running list of "oh no" moments in software this EPS. Azure 2q guide.VRNS 23 ARR guide .ZI 3q current deferred/billings.
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This all better amount to something or we're setting up for capital destruction of epic proportions.
Announcing The Stargate Project. The Stargate Project is a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States. We will begin deploying $100 billion immediately. This infrastructure will secure.
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I think you can get burned trying to trade real, profitable businesses like they’re smid cap software. MSFT doesn’t trade on the third derivative of commercial bookings growth for a reason.
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Consistently amazed how many low single digit billion and less PE shops there are out with 10 person investment teams. How do those economics work?.
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I should change careers.
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You think Warren used Mercury Partners to find Ted and Todd?.
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Owning a car with parking in NYC is like living in a different universe than everyone else.
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@CundillCapital A lot of hedge funds will do shit like this just to get free ideas. No clue if that is what Dan was doing or not, but I understand the defensiveness.
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Weekend reading got me thinking; at what time does the marginal insight from reading investment books meaningfully decline? . You probably only read need 1 value book, 1 macro book, 1 book on asset bubbles, and 1 psychology book.
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Why have really boring things become more important in equity investing: alt data, positioning, flows, sentiment, short term catalysts, etc. The “job” as most do it has become far less interesting overtime.
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FWIW, at least in TMT investing, informational advantages are probably overrated and analytical and behavioral are underrated.
Reading VIC comments between a hand wavy more qualitative investor and an incremental datapoint type more quantitative investor is like reading a Swede try and talk to an Italian.
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You know Warren is ripping through the Yipit and M Science cloud data right now.
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Valuation is often times least useful at the extremes because it is when buyside numbers are most different from published estimates. Very few to zero businesses are truly worth 1x FCF or 50x sales. The estimates are just wrong.
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What is the positive view on TEAM spending 900m for screen recording software? I hate to be flippant but this is one of the more insane software deals I've seen in a while.
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Closing thought for the year before off on vaca. Over the long term, FCF per share growth is *all* that matters . In the medium term, path of fundamentals is *all* that matters.
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Software companies generally sounding OK at Citi. Weakness I am hearing is more self inflicted (OKTA) while security continuing to hold up better overall (PANW S). MSFT never says much but sounded pos on Azure trends. NOW maybe the standout with Gina saying slipped deals closed.
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TEAM pricing Trello + Confluence + Atlas + JWM at $11 is extremely disruptive, especially when compared to ASAN at $25 for just planning software that is comparable to Trello.
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NOW quietly had one of the best software CEO upgrades ever moving from Donahoe to Billy McD. Donahoe can barely run NKE
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There goes your margin expansion.
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There are a lot of hedge fund analysts whose pitch went something like “XYZ asset trades at 15x sales for y growth rate and ABC asset trades at 30x for z growth rate” as the basis of their valuation framework. This was insane, is insane, and will forever be insane.
It you’re valuing assets on sales, it’s purely greater fool theory/momentum/a reflexive comparables approach. Every asset must trade on a multiple of cashflow available to be distributed to shareholders *while maintaining the asset base* at some point. That’s all that matters.
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Tell people that software is maybe kinda sorta cheap if you have even an ounce of duration and people lose their minds . This is where we are at.
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Why is Coatue (and honestly all the cubs) historically so OW consumer facing tech vs enterprise software? If the pitch is LT value creation, your hit rate is much higher in the latter than the former.
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2024 software ideas: .Long: CYBR, PCOR, WDAY, MSFT.Short: GTLB, BRZE, QLYS, KVYO.
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Most of the time people get out to spend time with family but still *do something* . Is the more rational path to just find a seat that lets you spend time with family and still cash a check?.
How many people in finance ever actually retire at a youngish age? I feel like people talk about it much more than it actually happens.
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Returns are very poor in inorganic M&A in software vs organic R&D, especially at these type of multiples. Very best case scenario Figma does ~$1b in NOPAT in 5 years (nearly 10x’d ARR in 5 yrs at a 30% NOPAT margin) . On $20b of IC that’s still only a 5% ROIC 5 yrs out!.
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