JPSartre
@JPSartre_NoExit
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investor | Listener | Reader | Pragmatic | search for truth & possibilities | Not financial advice or marketing
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Pinned Tweet
@Tesla
@MartinViecha
5 tranches
MktCap: $2, 4, 6, 8, >10T
RevB$: 200, 400, 600, 800, >$1T
Award: $20, 40, 60, 80, 100B
Market caps value >12 month period
Sales must be done on 10B51
can not exceed sale of 5% of award at current market value in within 12 month period.
@heyitsyashu
I am uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25% voting control. Enough to be influential, but not so much that I can’t be overturned.
Unless that is the case, I would prefer to build products outside of Tesla. You don’t seem to understand
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@SharpFootball
OC should be fired. Harbaugh should have stepped in.
It’s almost like they were trying to win a certain way…vs actually winning.
They wanted to prove Lamar is a “QB” instead of just being best dual threat QB.
Awful all around.
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People don’t understand the magnitude of this
@Tesla
just became Exxon Mobil gas station of future.
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@garyblack00
This is correct but it also doesn’t matter.
They’re going to pay him out of Texas.
She’s done.
Her decision is moot.
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If
@Tesla
does not grow at all next year
They will make $100B dollars in 24’
have $50B in cash reserves
With no debt
@MartinViecha
@elonmusk
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HOLY SHIT CHINA RAMPED WAY BACK UP!
This was almost empty 2 days ago
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I’m not sure which
@Tesla
Wall Street analyst needs to hear this…
The total cost to produce & DELIVER a M3/Y in 2019 was ~$35-36k
It’s now $30-31k
2019 MSRP MY LR $47K
2023 MSRP MY LR $53K
@elonmusk
@DivesTech
@p_ferragu
@CathieDWood
@TashaARK
@garyblack00
@munster_gene
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@SawyerMerritt
1) it’s almost like Tesla knew this was going to happen
2) this is what Elon asked for.
3) other OEMs and standalone companies would be screwed.
4) Tesla moat only going to grow
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@EZebroni
These try to be ironic / try to be funny tweets are the worst part of X.
If 99% of people don’t know it’s a joke without knowing you…
it’s not a joke, it’s a bad story.
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overlooked comment
Tom Z said they built their 4M car in Austin for delivery…on march 1
That’s almost 400k…
…in 2 months of Q1
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@garyblack00
Doing a financial move in lieu of poor sales is not indicative of strength
They did the same thing before they filed bankruptcy during GFC.
They’re pumping the stock. That’s it.
The write down on lease back is going to be painful.
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@SawyerMerritt
They’ve been selling out of It
13F 4.5M shares sold
He’s going to say that until they’re completely out.
He’ll go long tesla and will say
“TSLA FCF/EPS is just so much better than BYD, it’s kind of ridiculous, byd has too much real estate & doesn’t sell cars at profit”
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@SawyerMerritt
$1.9M more expensive
Carbon fiber hypercar
With 2.5x the power
3 less seats
I sure hope it beat a 4 door sedan.
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@WalterIsaacson
You should stop leaking blurbs
It’s been wildly misconstrued and it’s hurting your book sales and Elon’s perception
And it’s great you’re clarifying now
It’s 11PM ET the damage is done and no one is going to see this.
You should contact cnn and other outlet for correction
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FYI: CONFIRMED by CATL & TESLA
in August 22’
cost of LFP $75/kwh
Q4 setup catl production & procurement. 5km down road from Shanghai.
Takes about 3 months to get into vehicle production stage
We should get 400 mile range 3/Y soon.
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@business
@CommunityNotes
this is over the air update, not a mechanical fix in a shop.
@business
is intentionally misrepresenting this information with sensationalized and misleading headlines implying a long drawn out and expensive fix
Trying to manipulate the stock price.
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@SawyerMerritt
It’s model Y
with less storage, less range
2x the price
less places to charge it
Porsche is in trouble. ICE macan pays their bills.
This won’t sell well as it’s more expensive than ICE
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🔋Electrify America IS BUYING/USING TESLA MEGAPACKS FOR THEIR CHARGING NETWORK🔋
@Tesla_Megapack
Even when it’s not tesla! It’s tesla👇🏼
$tsla
@elonmusk
@baglino
@MartinViecha
@woodhaus2
@jbstraubel
Most American Car company is making America great!
@Tesla
@POTUS
@FECMgov
The hidden secret Electrify America doesn't want you to know! Okay, it's not hidden or a secret, but I found it amusing
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@GerberKawasaki
You’re not wrong. Think people have different views on how to address.
TBH instead of
@MartinViecha
doing private tour of Lathrop with Goldman Sach and investors.
I wish they did a YouTube or Twitter Spaces with
@elonmusk
and video walk through tour for ALL
Let everyone see!
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@SawyerMerritt
@SpaceX
They miss the basics low hanging fruit again.
Starlink is a new ISP with cheaper access/serviceability (only provider with ability to launch own satellites)
They can replace Verizon / Comcast / xfinity
It’s internet 2.0
It’s a $10T company 8 on ISP 1-2T on launch
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@WholeMarsBlog
Technically buying the 50kwh battery “range extender” would qualify as buying “energy storage”
it doesn’t have to be used on the car and it’s portable (it’s a powerwall)
Under the current IRA it should qualify for 30% incentive
Reducing price to $11.2k
Another benefit of the range extender: dual motor comes in under tax credit limit but can still go up to 470 miles
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Coincidence?… 🤔
I’m sure megapacks not a big deal next 24 months
@Tesla
$tsla
H/T
@dan_karau
for finding
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1/
@Tesla
Energy 🧵
Confirmed data points:
Lathrop 23’ capacity = 40gwh (10k MP @ $2M each
Lathrop increasing capacity through 24’, >100 GWH
Berlin is making MPs (capacity unconfirmed) Elon made announcement during his visit. Lost w/ twtr news
Megapack sold out thru Q3 24’
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@garyblack00
Agree.
Until people realize that these prices are 10% above 2019 q4
and the cost basis is 20-30% lower than 2018 (batteries, casting scale, line / supply efficiencies & freight)
They won’t know how to process.
Battery reductions & shorter freight distance are significant.
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@SawyerMerritt
@SpaceX
Its got to 37KM above earth surface with multiple engines out
Fusing on raptor engines fired for separation but did not ignite.
5 engines out. Maybe 7 partially out during flight.
Not exploding on launch and clearing earth lower atmosphere is huge accomplishment for the size
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@Tesla
$tsla catalysts (not stock price)
1/LFP Patent Expiry
2/Lower Cost: Batteries,materials,Freight
3/0 Covid over china + stimulus
4/GEN3 Platform+highland
5/Lathrop MegaPack Live H2 22’
6/Shanghai test 5K/day prod
8/Austin&Berlin ☝🏼
9/CyberTruck
10/FSD
11/$TWTR CEO named
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@SawyerMerritt
Alternate headline
Legacy OEM Auto & Energy have paid billions to 2024 campaigns & PACs for hundreds of U.S. representatives to increase pollution in U.S.
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Don’t hype investor day too much.
All have been a let down…in past.
Just saying.
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@garyblack00
Agree HSBC, Bloomberg headlines moving
But
@HSBC
is irrelevant in institutional equities. Like they might shut it down within 2-3 years.
They have no client franchise or presence at all. No real traders or sales people.
They also have no investment banking capability
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@RealDanODowd
The best people at Lockheed & subs left for tesla ~10 years ago. You don’t get anygood recruits
You’re on a crusade because your govt contract will expires and DoD will go to tesla & spacex.
They have starshield & nasa already…your timer is almost up.
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@GerberKawasaki
They don’t.
You really don’t know the margins.
If you’re always talking / tweeting…how are you learning anything?
Please stop spreading misinformation
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@BradMunchen
You are completely full of shit and frankly very dumb. You know less about cars than I’ve forgotten.
Name a supplier and component. Let’s fact check your incompetence.
PS ~85% of the vehicle /component is made by tesla…not supplier
Would love to know how you discern $100K
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@SawyerMerritt
It’s hilarious
They’re both wrong and both going to lose.
This literally like dinosaur asking for the meteor to speed up and hit them.
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@ICannot_Enough
@MatchasmMatt
1 MEGAPACK / 68 minutes
Sorry
@Zerosumgame33
and I we’re off by a whole….1 megapack per day.
It’s 24 per day. Not 25
HYPE!
We really pumped it a WHOLE 1 MP per day.
@dan_karau
😂
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For FUCKS SAKE
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This might be my last post for a while. I don’t like the toxicity & BS.
SIMPLEST IS OFTEN BEST
For
@tesla
energy (MEGAPACK) to deploy 1500 GWH BY 2030
They HAVE TO DEPLOY 3.6 GWH PER WEEK
FOR the next 416 weeks!(8yrs)
=$1.8B Revenue / WEEK! (AVG)
$748B Rev @ today’s price
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🚨China demand issues
@Tesla
$tsla🚨
Model Y is the BEST selling passenger car IN MARCH (ICE or EV) to RETAIL INDIVIDUALS IN CHINA
(BYD “sells” majority to state sponsored entities and dealers)
This is indicator to tesla brand power.
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Thank you for raising awareness encouraging voting.
@_SFTahoe
@TeslaBoomerMama
@SawyerMerritt
@thejefflutz
@WholeMarsBlog
@herbertong
@garyblack00
@ICannot_Enough
Margin call on shorts tomorrow?
@KoguanLeo
no soup for you.
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@followtheh
$GM is top 3 holding at your firm
They’re down >1.1M units in china ARR vs 2019 last normal year before Covid.
Why don’t you worry about trimming / cutting a loser vs shouting at the sky about change you don’t understand?
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@CathieDWood
The total cost to produce & DELIVER a M3/Y in 2019 was ~$35-36k
It’s now ~ $30-31K
2019 MSRP MY LR $47K
2023 MSRP MY LR $53K
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To be clear the dominant noise thesis is
@tesla
is LOSING demand & slowing growth
Yet they have increased 1st month if Q2 deliveries in EUROPE.
ONE THOUSAND FIVE SIXTY-SIX PERCENT
PS I just ordered MYP.
THEY CALLED, end of June delivery earliest
Not 1 MYP in north east
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Update (old news but not reported)
M3P BATTERIES WERE SHIPPED IN Q4 to
@tesla
for Q1-Q2
>400 mile range MODEL Y IS COMING
>400 mile range 3 LONG RANGE is coming
The battery and structure is better than 4680
CyberTruck might have >620 mile range to unseat GAC Aion LX
@Tesla
@Tesla_Megapack
Is CyberTruck, Semi & Megapack rollout are delayed because you’re waiting for M3P from CATL?
If so…seems like it’s going to be worth the wait!
Durable, better in cold, power, cycles, fast charging
@elonmusk
@baglino
@woodhaus2
@MartinViecha
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@SScalpings
If you cared about your reputation at all
1) you’d stop tweeting
2) stop wearing ridiculous teal button up shirts.
If you think tesla is a meme stock in 23’ You have no business giving any financial advice.
Happy to discuss any other companies you chose too would be fun
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@SawyerMerritt
Haha Reuters & Bloomberg see
@twitter
&
@elonmusk
as the comet coming to make them extinct.
There is no longer a 4th estate
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Feels like this didn’t get enough air time…
$F Ford takes out $9.2B loan from US GOVT
Preemptive bailout…
Last time they did this was 2009, right before GM filed bankruptcy
History…repea…
(PS Check out
@business
“Big take on VW” today.
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@SawyerMerritt
@elonmusk
He also completely left out
tesla has 2x the margins of Mercedes.
supercharging revenue (gas stations 2.0)
Is an energy company (megapack)
Has insurance product
License AI data to military/fleet
THEN robotaxi & Optimus.
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Imagine doing no research on a company that you wanted to be on BoD?
S/X only made in Fremont and started global deliveries at scale.
The average delivery time on S/X is 3+ weeks outside of US.
@GerberKawasaki
you can’t learn anything if you’re constantly tweeting / selling
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@Teslaconomics
@elonmusk
So ridiculous they sold another 4.5M shares
Follow actions, not words.
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Beware of people using
@Zerosumgame33
and my work and pass it off as their own…
Looking for YouTube views, investments or Patreon.
Have lots of DM’s sharing the info for free that they put behind pay walls or on their monetization.
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@GerberKawasaki
@RealDanODowd
Your post brought this on
You were doing too much and inadvertently shut off FSD by taping brake.
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IRA (it’s a draft, not final)
1)
@Tesla
has 8 vehicles & megapack, Powerwall & solar products qualify for IRA. The MOST of any company.
2) MY 5 seat AWD LR launched in 2019 @ $47K
3) MYLR 5st lower price -3k, 62. -7.5K $TSLA discount, which qualify for 55k-IRA discount.
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Small reminder 🚨
there’s ~200gwh of
@Tesla_Megapack
in order backlog.
And an IRA fueling even greater demand.
@baglino
@elonmusk
@MartinViecha
@Tesla
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@garyblack00
I think you get blowback becuase you’re equating all FSD as equal
Tesla is only company getting enough data to have true autonomy FSD
Others may have FSD in geo fenced area but they will never have true autonomy because they’re not getting enough data through fleet
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@GordonJohnson19
@TroyTeslike
@fly4dat
@funwithnumberz
Gordon let’s do a space. I’m an actual finance professional.
You go on tv and literally say nothing factual, gene Muenster politely debunks your entire life
But I would love to Socratic method your entire thesis.
PS what’s your cost base? What batteries does this car use?
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@SawyerMerritt
@elonmusk
This will get overturned and approved at SCOTUS
Musk gaining 6% of 650B value creation makes sense
$10B for every $50B created
His overall percentage to increase ownership equity of the company and raises market cap is the PLAN ALL CEO’s should have.
It was voted & passed
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@davidciccone
@Tesla
Feels like you’re looking to attempt to build a following
These are awful pictures and you took no video.
FYI weather in northeast has been 38-52 degrees with misting / heavy fog, causing condensation & “smoke” on every car for the last 48 hours
you got no alerts. Non issue
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@elonmusk
@Tesla
Can we get a tour?
@Zerosumgame33
We’ve probably invited 99% of all megapack twitter trends for 6 weeks
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@SawyerMerritt
Exactly
Red straight issues
Berlin attack
New hairpin motor assembly production line for 3/Y
M3P battery chemisrty update & roll out
Energy storage clearly accelerating
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Anyone who was parroting Troy…
If it’s not apparent..
the emperor is wearing no clothes.
His “models” are not “models”. He’s guessing.
He was fortunate when Tesla was Covid supply constrained & prod delivery predictable.
His Inaccuracy of 17-19’ appearing again in 24’
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@GerberKawasaki
That has nothing to do with it.
The way you go about it, is bad.
And traditional marketing is dead.
Look at GM & Budweiser They spend billions 10-20% of revenue
And they’re losing more market share every year.
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Where’s all the tesla bulls whining about inventory?
@Tesla
$tsla
Who said that the ridiculously amateur inventory chart was complete BS
James Cat blocked me for calling BS on the dumb inventory / demand narrative. 🤣
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I’m not sure everyone understands this yet.
@elonmusk
&
@Tesla
control the price of each auto segment they’re in, ICE or EV.
They are THE AUTO MARKET.
@DivesTech
How is it a “price war” when one company produces literally 10x the other in EV? $F also swinging to an OP margin loss/vehicle
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@SawyerMerritt
Tony Spaghetti is worthless.
“We”
Didn’t get Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Disney, etc
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