@glbeaty @KevinLMak How stupid are you? They already raised the 150 as a cp close. Interest expense cut on 4 year amortization holiday until the project is fully online in 2028. I don’t typically respond to moronic posts like this but man, if this is the money that’s short the stock, god bless.

$CLMT massive catalyst nobody is focused on is the proposed RVO rulings by the EPA in March. Back in Dec 2022, Rins were 2.00 before the 2023-2025 proposed ruling. RVO's were set too low. Industry margins collapsed. Rins collapsed to $0.40. Now theres another crack at the EPA making things right. Rins are +50% in anticipation of a strong ruling. MRL margins can go parabolic if RVO's are set where demand = supply. Trump is pro-ag and my bet is it happens.

@toiletkingcap Hope you’re right!

@BeenThereCap clmt is eternally doomed by the option gods.

SHIT I should have focused on $GRAL. UP 3x

$CLMT stock likely down today on Neste’s dividend cut and restructuring. Neste seeing rd volume loss b/c of slashed imports thanks to no longer getting $1 BTC. This is indirectly a benefit for CLMT as supply is removed. Calumet does not have a liquidity crisis as the non-fuelscore business does a stable $100M free cash flow. Looks like another over reaction to me, but I’m very fatigued by the volatility.

$CLMT

$CLMT anyone else confused?

@BeenThereCap Ty ❤️

$CLMT Here is "whats next" (imo, pure speculation!) 1) Q4 earnings call end of Feb/early March. Q4 numbers do not matter as they have already been pre-released. I expect mgmt to not only discuss the newly unlocked MaxSAF project and '26 SAF capacity, but also provide color on the SAF run-rate (which currently stands at 50M gallons when their '25 guidance is only built on 30M gals). I expect higher SAF run-rates > 50M gals given their ability to run the "catalyst" faster on the 1st reactor as they now likely have an idea of when 2nd reactor is stood up in '26. In addition, I expect mgmt to reference the newly contracted SAF offtake agreement ("offtake D" in the DOE LGA) which has gone overlooked given no formal announcement. Lastly, I expect positive commentary on industry margins (like DAR/PSX/VLO just recently provided) and the interplay between higher D4 Rins (+45% YTD), higher LCFS, and why waste-based feedstock (tallow) wins under the new PTC regime (particularly with a pre-treater allowing the ability to feedstock flex), all justifying why $1.50 biodiesel breakeven margins are achievable rather quickly once 1) there is clear evidence that ~1B gals of imports are gone for good, and 2) preliminary 2026-2028 RVO's (the ultimate catalyst to achieving equilibrium supply/demand levels) are established by the EPA sometime in early March. For the record, $1.50 D4 rins and $100 LCFS would get industry margins back to normalized $2.00 levels in the PTC regime where tallow is getting $.60 cent credit. Currently, D4 rins are $0.87 and LCFS is $71. Theres lots of industry chatter circulating as to why Rins are about to absolutely explode higher. 2) Upon DOE funding (cash in the door next week) mgmt will take the $782M in cash and immediately payoff of all third party high cost project finance debt, in addition to repaying ~$200M of the interco loan. These multiple refi transactions will likely be announced to the public by the company (and praised by the market). As a reminder, the interest savings on tranche 1 alone is $79 million per year, and factored into the $160-$200M FCF guidance for this year. 3) I expect mgmt will soon raise pari-passu debt @ MRL to significantly lower its cost of capital. They allude to this in the MRL slide deck (which has likely gone overlooked as well). Given the DOE loan is ~5% paper, investment grade pari-passu debt should be similar rate. I would imagine some form of muni debt is in the works. Total CLMT blended cost of debt stands at ~13% today, so layering in more lower cost debt is highly accretive to earnings. 4) Given mgmt's obsession with de-leveraging (as the conduit to inviting a more stable/institutional shareholder base), I expect there are multiple low-hanging-fruit asset sale transactions on the horizon. As a reiminder, mgmt's gross debt target is $800M, vs. $1.58B of non-recourse debt pro-forma for DOE tranche 1. This implies ~$800M of incremental debt reduction that needs to unfold if mgmt is serious. Again, ~$200M will come from interco paydown upon DOE loan funding next week. I would not be surprised to see SPS/PB assets sold for a few hundred million to plug the hole. All speculation of course. Why hasnt it happened yet? Well, why complicate DOE loan and mess w/ your cap stack when trying to secure the deal? Prudent mgmt would wait for the dust to settle. 5) Partial monetization of MRL has always been Mgmt's near-term end game. Every bull points to it, but we've all been *very wrong* on timing. With MaxSAF funding lined up, it makes it much easier to converse with potential offtake/equity partners to do a deal. In order to make the $800M de-leveraging math work, I expect a partial monetization of MRL in the ballpark of $300-$400M. The question then becomes at what valuation? If I'm guessing, it starts with a $3 handle ($3 bil) b/c theres no way in hell Warburg sees a down-round post MaxSAF expansion. It's easy to point to 150M gals of SAF capacity in 2026 @ 2/gal EBITDA and say fair value for MRL is 10x or $3B. Thus, a partial sale for ~10%+ of the equity, accompanied by guarenteed SAF offtake. Ask yourself why mgmt has not contracted out all the MaxSAF capacity yet... its likely because they're saving it for whoever comes in as their strategic equity partner. If that rationale makes sense, given the language in the DOE LGA whereby 70% of the project's total capacity must be contracted by the time they draw on the Tranche 2 term loan for construction in the late summer of 2025, would lead me to believe a partial monetization event is most likely a Q2 2025 event. This is the big, big catalyst all the fatigued longs have been waiting for. In totality, $800M of de-leveraging (which btw I expect to all unfold in 2025) is close to $10 per share, which all transfers to the equity, and will likely have a *much* greater impact on stock price. So, in short, IDGAF that the stock is stuck at $18 today in a shit tape. If you're a momo retail day trader, then pick your levels on your chart, but if you're a fundamental investor who understands the significance of the aforementioned catalysts mentioned above, you should be licking your chops at these levels where MRL is trading at an implied level that is ***20-30% below where the asset is insured for as the replacement cost to re-build the facility from scratch*** Adios 😗

@KevinLMak 💯

RT @KevinLMak: $CLMT After the whole "Trump is gonna pause DOE loans" fiasco, a bunch of shorts piled into the stock. Markit shows about +…

To the David Orr greaseball who blocked me: I’m going to short your commoditized sub scale $ORR 40’act shitco ETF with 20M aum and 18% expense ratio 😭no real institutional guy will touch this key man risk 🤡

RT @Zerosumgame33: $CLMT I believe Chris Wright is ultimately calling the shots here. He takes his seat sometime later this week. I would i…

RT @Zerosumgame33: $CLMT So all that has transpired since DOE loan closing on 1/10 when stock was $23 and moving higher was: 1) a tack on…

RT @Zerosumgame33: $CLMT if you’re an institutional energy investor looking to allocate capital across the energy complex early in the year…

RT @Zerosumgame33: $CLMT institutional capital would rather plow into a de-risked $23-25 and take it to $30+ instead of taking career risk…

RT @Zerosumgame33: $CLMT ~7 mil shares short on a ~40 mil true float… negative headline after negative headline on Trump funding bans and c…