Founder, Brevarthan Research. Armchair alpha. Frequently wrong. Opinions are not investment advice. Energy and other shorts. Some longs. Do your own research.
#PANR
$PANR.L $PANR
#PantheonResources
Here are our latest thoughts on the recent Alkaid "topset" recompletion and broader considerations for the company as it continues its Alaskan oil odyssey. We remain sceptical (and modestly short).
@KTjuta
@visegrad24
She certainly acted like one even if she wasnt. German military capacity destroyed, nuclear power decommissioned, massive energy reliance on Russia, mass refugee admission helped drive populism and Brexit narrative ....
$MSTR The beatings continue...Now at an 120% premium to its bitcoin
#btc
holdings. Pricing in over $140,000 a bitcoin. Currently acting as if 3 to 1 levered on btc when in reality it should be 0.5 to 1 at best given the premium. "The market can remain irrational longer...."
@RampCapitalLLC
We are seeing Daniel Kahneman's book "Thinking Fast and Slow" playing out in real time... Its like one giant psychological experiment, loss aversion, anchoring, herding, all that jazz thrown into one monumental clusterf**k.
@OzKaterji
I wish the US govt had some genuine interest in ending the war.. Like by providing planes, apaches and atacms and giving up this daft Obama era obsession with the JCPOA and actually doing something about Iranian arms exports to Russia...
$OXY comfortably delivering negative FCF post pref coupon.... Permian oil nicely gliding down by a further 10% qoq (goodness knows what the old Resources is doing). Admit Uri has a role here but....still bad...
$PANR The art of the E&P press release . Crimes of omission - no break out of the split between condi (the valuable stuff) and NGLs (the stuff that will end up in the flare stack. No exit rate of current daily production....
#SQZ
#Serica
For all those following, I am slowly putting together my thoughts on this deal. In summary - it is highly dilutive of Serica's equity, and takes highly discounted equity and purchases overpriced assets with it. I will vote against unless terms change.
$MSTR now reflecting a bitcoin
#btc
price of nearly $140,000 in its share price. That's an approx 120% premium to the bitcoin price. Currently the market is voting not weighing (Buffett)..
@WallStCynic
Closed last of the $PANR
#PANR
short. Now (I suspect) comes the pump into the NSAI CPR and SLB reservoir model and all the related puffery. Hopefully there will be an opportunity to have another ride on this one in the coming months!
@ThomasWPenny
@TBraithwaite
@FD
He has certainly made the owners of the FT more affluent by making the FT the essential business newspaper investigating the truth without fear or favour along with
@BondHack
and
@cynthiao
and the team...
Pantheon Resources $PANR : Quick thoughts on Pantheon's well metrics for Alkaid etc. Pantheon Resources uses the Tarn field as an analogue, but later Tarn field wells never really generated an economic return....1/7
$SQZ.L
#SQZ
- Serica cash position is approx £ 2 a share. Serica now nearly down at £ 3 a share - so effectively you pay £1 for the business - 27,000 boe/d for a market cap of £270m approx ex cash. Thats not much more than $10,000 a flowing barrel...
We've gone through this report with a fine toothcomb, and cannot not find anything to fault its technical work. $RECO has little if any chance of finding commercial oil. The company will in all likelihood run out of money with little to show for it.
Con Africa - Viceroy's analysis of $RECO's response is now live:
ReconAfrica’s micro-response to our report contains zero facts, addresses none of Viceroy’s pertinent questions, & is loaded with promotional language
#thread
1/
@StockJabber
This reminds me of Woodford in the UK. Its duration/liquidity mismatch between ETF holders and the underlying. Only works if the Ponzi keeps building.
Serica
#SQZ
- in brief Circular accretion assumptions are completely unreliable as the per share forecasts fail to take into account Serica's apriori massive cash balance, and Tailwind's net debt. Adjusting for that, the resulting combination is highly dilutive.
@EnergyCynic
@QuickDCapital
If they had so-called multi decade inventory the npv of the acquisition for drilling npv's in years 25-35 would be de-minimus. So the acquisition is hugely value destructive on their own BS logic. Unless...there's not really that much inventory....
$PANR. Death spiral time approaches - no money left, an uncommercial well, and imminent dilution through convert PIK repayment (lower the share price, the more shares PANR have to print to repay principal and interest). Further capital raises will get dearer and dearer.
Hurricane Energy
#HUR
: No way back. While restructuring of debt appears imminent, message boards are awash with hopium. Here's our sober look at reserves and production at the Lancaster Field
@MorrellGeoff
@JavierBlas
Why not call it Beyond Petroleum. Ahh no already tried that. Followed up with TNK BP russian purchase. And shale acquisitions. Remember the 5pc growth target? The 3pc base decline rate. Lies lies lies for the past 20 plus years.
My Serica
#SQZ
$SQZ.L update with thoughts on the deal. TLDR - I'm really struggling with it and think shareholders can get a better deal. As it stands I'm a "no".
@KwasiKwarteng
@Telegraph
Perhaps you should have thought about the prosaics of securing more gas supply, investing in North Sea gas, securing LNG, and most of all maintaining our storage facilities like Rough. No amount of wind or renewables will provide baseload power.
@AlderLaneeggs
@GlobalTrenton
@JessKruchoski
@opinion_joe
Marc is right. Speaking as one who knows. But as JS Mill (no it wasnt Burke) wrote long ago: “Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing."
Notable points. 1) Its not retrospective, so SQZ and HBR get to keep their winter 21/22 cash bonanza. 2) Previous tax losses are not deductible against new levy so folks like HUR and ENQ get whacked for tax. 3) Finance costs and decomm not deductible - bad for ENQ/HUR
Crucial worked example for those of you poor suffering UK North Sea E&P investors, post bonkers tax shenanigans...Note that the tax relief is pretty generous despite the sheer craziness of it...
For those that laud $MSTR's ability to increase its
#BTC
per share over time, and despite beneficial nature of cheap funding, post dilution 100 shares of $MSTR today buy you 0.97
#BTC
vs just over
#0
.96 at the end of 2022. A 1% annual gain doesn't eat much into a 123% premium...
$PANR
#PANR
Pantheon Resources may soon reach its 1 billion target....No not proven barrels of oil reserves, or market cap, but shares...907 million after the latest share issuance to pay for the convertible bond quarterly payment... Thats up from 15.5 million at the IPO or 60x!
@pickeringenergy
It's not a cap per se. It's a price per kwh cap translated into the cost for an "average family home". Marginal prices remain at a fixed px per kwh.
@KwasiKwarteng
Now build some gas storage assets and incentivise gas development for strategic reasons and to avoid dependence on Russian supplies (indirectly)
If you are a Naked Wines
#nakedwines
customer with angel money on account, your money is probably less secure than in a third tier Nigerian bank. Read the Going Concern language in the FY report... GBP 40m of negative FCF in the year, GBP 50m mkt cap and a half drawn 60m RCF
@izakaminska
No, it means that cohort of mortgagees that had to fix at a temporarily much higher rate because of medium term GILTS (which set fixes) selling off. That said, GILTS sold off again recently after trading up and you can't pin that on her.
Makes the sell off in $HIFS make even less sense. The market is doing the voting thing at the moment and less of the "weighing" thing....to bastardise Buffett.
@RachelReevesMP
How is a windfall tax on UK oil and gas producers going to help reduce our dependence on Gazprom and Russian gas? Don't we need more UK gas to cut our reliance on the Russians? Thats not going to encourage our producers to invest in more capacity is it?
@RaisingTheBAR47
$OXY I was wondering if they had hidden the financial statements because it was so bad! Permian oil % continues to fall as you say. Interesting that they felt they had to throw $100m capital at the DJ..limiting oil decline there to a mere 8%!...need to prop up WES??
@bwhittle23
@implausibleblog
Amazing how people think if you accelerate decline in the North Sea by overtaxing it, starving it of capex and losing half the workforce that you will reduce fuel poverty and increase Britain's energy independence....Rather than us having to beg Russia/Qatar to keep the lights on
@RaisingTheBAR47
@crudegusher
@mailboxmoney6
He didn't suffer fools. He rather made them the butt of his rapier sharp wit... Brilliantly grumpy, but often sporting a wry grin, as if sharing a private joke with himself whilst navigating the khaki-panted moronic inferno of countless conference hall breakout sessions...RIP
@puppyeh1
Yes but as we discussed before why would you deploy the cash before knowing outcome of North Eigg (potentially transformational and needing capex) and or further windfall tax risk in upcoming Hunt budget
Fantasy land from
@flight_useful
... $PANR see below... Assume our friend scot12312432432 is also on the pump train. Feels like the begging bowl is about to be passed around....
$PANR Fantasy land strikes again. Apparently Pantheon pivoting from oil to gas! A $10bn pipeline will have to be built. In order for that to wash its face at 300mmcfd capacity the pipeline owners would have to charge $12/mcf in transport fees a year. Cloud cuckoo land.
Brevarthan Research is Long Transglobe Energy $TGA.
#TGL
. We feel the company's market cap doesn't fully realise the potential offered by the new merged PSC in Egypt, or its near debt free exposure to higher oil prices:
Geoff Wilding really outdid himself with this latest
#VCP
#Victoriaplc
release. Auditors won't sign off on accounts, negative FCF (net debt went up) , but he manages to name check Winston Churchill, Berkshire Hathaway and Charlie Munger all in the same release...
@PrestigeReFini1
@GaryNTrader
#ENQ
Just to confirm from the company - the guided production next year is WITHOUT the Suncor asset. Golden Eagle is 10kbd additive to that number. Magnus should be around 18kbd+. The new secured financing should repay both the vendor loan to BP and the Sculptor facility.
@jc_nothias
@anneapplebaum
@EmmanuelMacron
You just don't get it. Russia is Putin and Putin is Russia. Only a total and utter humiliation of the KGB/Siloviki will shift that ever so slightly. For Russia to change it needs to experience its own self destruction. Otherwise it will always find a way to blame others.
@davidfrum
@liamdenning
Over now to our Moscow correspondent, Tucker Carlson..."Well, here in Moscow the mood is upbeat, the metro is working and you can buy food in the shops at attractive prices.."
@agusnox
@king_of_thougts
there is a bizarre psychological dependency going on there, a sort of narcissistic neediness, with episodic machismo and grandstanding giving way to child-like vulnerability..
@Hipster_Trader
@EnergyCynic
My Romanian builder texted me yesterday afternoon asking what oil etf he should buy because he thought he could make 5x his money. His previous forays into exotic crypto currency have not proved profitable....
$PANR
#PANR
Most amusing thing about the presentation was that while not discussing details of the Alkaid well, some were left it. Such as the water cut, which is considerably higher than the oil cut...
$PANR
#PANR
Below are the flow rates (oil and water, LHS) for the original Alkaid
#1
well 24 hr test - (n.b. excludes periods of zero oil flow and cleanup). Also the wellhead pressure (LHS) and choke (RHS). Note the decline before N2 injection, and again before choking back 1/
@Matt__Miller
I'm not sure I agree. It just keeps the gravy train going by providing an exit route. Those boys will be back with a new entity drilling like billy-o in no time!
@puppyeh1
I hope Mr and Mrs D Hardy have had a chance to read this. The exclusion of net cash/debt and EV calcs from Serica's circular are both evasive and egregious
So $MSTR's debt goes up as its Bitcoin holding goes up marginally. No change to NAV. Yet stock moons. Seems rational. Stock now discounting a bitcoin price of $77000.
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 3,000 BTC for ~$155 million at an average price of $51,813 per
#bitcoin
. As of 2/25/24,
@MicroStrategy
now hodls 193,000 $BTC acquired for ~$6.09 billion at an average price of $31,544 per bitcoin. $MSTR
Brevarthan Research: Serica Energy: Building cash. See the attached link for an update on Serica, where I see the company soon piling up more than half its market cap in net cash on the balance sheet.
Seems like Capital Group has decided to sell down its Victoria
#victoriaplc
#vcp
holding, whilst 2 out of 3 ratings agencies (now S&P) have now downgraded the debt....1/
@GreekFire23
yeah he really sorted out the current account deficit and brought the jobs back home.... erm...got the debt under control...erm....fixed healthcare....erm....solved N korea...hmmm.....still he brought back the coal and steel industry to life...ummm...
I will send out some thoughts on Serica
#SQZ
$SQZ.L tomorrow morning at market open UK time. Bottom line - as it stands I don't see how the deal benefits shareholders. Follow me on substack:
$MSTR The Moronic Inferno rages on.... Not even a down day for bitcoin stops its charge! Now you pay 2.4 bitcoin at $MSTR for 1 bitcoin anywhere else. Because why not....?
@BenBrey
@WallStCynic
SCOOP: Harvard today received a complaint outlining over 40 allegations of plagiarism against its embattled president, Claudine Gay.
The document (available online) suggests a pattern of misconduct more extensive than has been previously reported. 🧵