Tom Loughrey
@TomLoughrey_LFE
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Understanding duration mismatches is the red pill. 17 yr HF PM, analyst, head trader; ex CS, Solly. All products. FLOW big data Energy quantitative fundamentals
Joined November 2017
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Wow $ARKK double down all the way. The casino loves this
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109 pages of paper and ink delivered by fossil fuel, thrown right away, to be picked up by a fossil fuel truck and sent to China by fossil fuel for recycling. Worth it for a sale, yet
#patagonia
won’t make a vest for an oil & gas company.
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Things that can be said after everyone goes home are being said now
#BREAKING
: Crown Prince: Adopting unrealistic policies to reduce emissions by excluding main sources of energy will lead to unprecedented inflation and rise in energy prices.
#SaudiUSPartnership
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Given the earnings sofballs; going to post the best set of questions ever on a conference call.
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Instant replay of the SPR Release Strategy planning session
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Oil bears: There are literally one billion ninety two million barrels of oil in storage in the US. There is no shortage of oil. The price should be $35
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So when we are dependent upon lithium and cobalt will we be free from the whims of random dictators?
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5000 people here on
#EFT
could answer this before their first cup of coffee
Reporter: "How many barrels of oil does the U.S. consume per day?"
Biden's energy secretary: "I don't have that number in front of me"
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The Energy Transition is oil and gas investors and executives deciding to make money
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Good thing Patagonia won’t sell to the Oil and Gas industry
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Think about all the people who got laid off in Oil & Gas, because their C-suite relied too heavily on debt financing and couldn't even make it through 6 months of poor prices without gutting the place.
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@antonioguterres
Let me guess, it involves a lot of taxes on the middle class, sacrifice for the poor, and contracts for your pals.
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Spent time with a very capable generalist this weekend
-1st order: unaware of LNG prices rn
-2nd order: unaware of oil inventory
-3rd order: unaware of full stack implications (eg: fertilizer)
We are in a crazy place and people are offsides, could get really weird
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In January if you said “oil is going to $65” you were a wild crazy person with zero credibility.
Keep track of those people. Some of them are right a lot.
Also keep track of the people stuck in the status quo.
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Average WTI price for q2 is 108.50 currently.
Was 94.69 in q1. Just sayin'....
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Huh interactions between wells clustered too close together.
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Not the first time, but I'll do it again for fun. 2017, here's why I got kicked out of every office building in the world.
Maybe someone becomes a fiduciary and decides they like money.
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Announcement: the S&P Energy index now OUTPERFORMS the S&P ex-Energy on a trailing 5-year basis
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At FLOW we got some questions yesterday on well productivity. I think there's context and clarification that would help everyone. Quick thread that includes some of FLOWs machine learning insight.
First, we see a clear downtrend in per-foot productivity. This is a result mostly
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I’ve avoided politics my entire time on this platform. I will continue to.
But, the current state of the Energy market and the policy that affects it is driven by cult-like behavior. I will acknowledge policy fundamentalism for investment purposes. It’s required
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I think everyone knows the 9000 permits thing is nonsense.
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So, now that a year has past and the $XOM $PXD deal has closed, it's a good time to review how FLOW understood the deal in real time, connected the capital markets to the subsurface, and predicted not just the deal, but also the premium. Importantly, this frame work drives out
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$XOM and $PXD to understand it, we need some math.
We’ve been on this for months. It’s the key to undertaking US Supply.
There are 2 choices in E&P: reduce F&D or maximize NPV. Wall Street rewards the first 1/n
@GreyHairOpsGuy
@pickeringenergy
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Last week had a conversation with a smart, reasonable, open minded friend who just didn’t know all his ski gear came from petroleum products. His mind was blown by the extent of oil in his life.
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It’s literally an FAQ on the EIA website. Frequently asked…
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This is so crazy. The SPR release strategy was built on bad forecasts of +1mm/d US production. 110mm barrels released on a false notion. They should have called FLOW. I finally found the source
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How about all the public pensions that divested Oil & Gas?
Now that they divested do they have a seat at the table? Or do they have to buy it back?
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So Permian rig count lower, but they think that’s because of price action 2 days ago.
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Energy's 70% outperformance over the S&P ex-energy has no precedent.
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One of these is a "Green" fund. One is SPY and one is QQQ
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I’ve had it right there in my signature for years. It’s always the duration mismatches.
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@McIlroyRory
Rory, 6 handicap here. 10 yards less will absolutely make this much less. 274 (gps below). This is all about defending a small number of high $ urban courses that can’t expand to host a US Open.
Lots of work on the GEARS system and expensive club fitting (with $$ shafts). Best
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The FT’s chart guy has struck again.
How many medical professionals posted this chart today? It went ‘viral’
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@ericnuttall
For the historicals, 400-500k/d of NGLs* needs to be added to the older records to make the records compare. This would make the all-time-high 13.5MM/d.
1) we aren't "at all time-highs"
2) we aren't *accelerating* suddenly
I drew in about what a historical restatement would
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How do we solve the problem of driving kids to endless games and practices?
Has to be the biggest misallocation of time in the developed world.
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Neat Trick: don't put any wells before 2018 on a your acreage, but do put them on the offset acreage!
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If you think down 2% was Lehman, you’ve never lost $50mm/day for weeks on end
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Had a great time yesterday at the AAPG Mid-Continent Section Convention. I presented on the importance of using data to make uncomfortable decisions.
I titled the presentation, Oil & Gas Data is not your Friend.
I'd like to share some of my slides.
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@DevoutDriller
He feels pretty good that the poor people will get turned into Solyent Green first. That’s the 2x quiet part
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There are people who oppose the oil and gas industry yet drive Suburbans.
People enjoy the high standard of living that comes from Energy
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Energy feels like death, but is beating the S&P by 6000 bps YTD. Is this fun or what?
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Just posting the screenshot from
@ianbremmer
tweet. TTF traded at 300 this week, and JKM at 70. It's not just about "getting through the winter" - These costs are being borne by people whose heat will = their mortgage. Plus it's not over in spring, it starts again
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Presented this in public 3 times 51 weeks ago and put it in the WSJ.
All of the Delaware distribution is getting worse.
The great thing about FLOW is we aren't consensus, but consensus comes to us a year later!!!
Diving a little deeper into Lea County production numbers... the whole distribution is falling, not just the top. It also holds true for both primary and secondary targets
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Our flattish oil production is predictable. That’s neither good or bad, unless you trusted bad forecasts. The marginal price most likely has to rise in response.
Been right for 4 years -We can help you get this right too
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Drop your rigs.
Wait a little while.
Save your drilling locations.
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@ianbremmer
So the price of LNG to Europe is skyrocking to make this happen. Is this still "very good"?
This is completely untenable. The economies are being choked off just so they won't freeze.
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We literally put this on the front page of the Journal half a year ago. Enervus better start reading the paper!
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If you want to see how fast the hall of bureaucracy can actually move, install one of these on your own.
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@ShitFund
Non-investment owner of the firm jets in and forces 2 PMs to sell 120mm of a distressed bond at 68. Company acquired next day triggering COC. Bonds trade to par. Owner jets back and fires the 2 PMs.
I have much better stories.
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Oil goes from $47 to 108, but there are three 15% drawdowns. Conviction is not easy and the easy money has never been made
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The RRC should not have to tell you to drop your rigs. If oil is $25 and your wells make 330k bbl you are going to net $6mm and you are spending $8.5mm+
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Hey, I am the only one that notices $EOG running $5.3bn of cold hard CASH on their balance sheet?
Earning 2.9%
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Average WTI for Q2 is 103.83.
The Q1 average was 94.69.
That's $9 more.
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So if the US sells their Strategic Petroleum Reserve so China can stop draining their Strategic Petroleum Reserve, should we really be using the word, “Strategic”?
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$DVN - with Validus pocketing $1bn for a year’s work, reminder, it’s always about commodity prices.
If you underwrite the strip you get risk free less the vol of strip.
If you bet on prices you get a ranch
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Excel trick GS needs to know. You need an if statement that generates a
#N
/A error to get rid of this green line.
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@AmyJaffeenergy
@business
Hydrocarbons are needed in order to feed the people. Just make a mental note.
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$ARKK $GBTC ponzi summary. ARK buys GTBC at a premium. Incentives BlockFi and 3Arrows to buy BTC and deliver in kind. BTC goes up. GBTC goes up. Once ARK stops paying a premium, BTC stops going up. ARK must keep buying, not just hodl. /end
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With shale declines, it drives me crazy that producers focus so heavily on the forward curve. Hedges and roll. Kills me. It is an at-the-money business. Capex is the hedge, not futures
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So secret you can look them up in the Rail Road Commission database
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If instead of going net zero and crypto (which isn't net zero) Ontario Teachers had simply put their $95MM into $XOM stock they would have $181MM now instead of zero.
Yes, I know it's <1% for them, but $181MM can pay a lot of pensions.
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The scariest words in E&P are:
“We have strong carbonate barriers between formations”
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The answer is “flatten the curve”
-be afraid, be very afraid
NOW - EU will propose a "mandatory target for reducing electricity use at peak hours" in order to "flatten the curve."
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Quick hit: a sympathetic acceleration of US drilling will blast service costs through the roof. Companies will destroy their inventory. Shareholders (ie:pensions) will once again be screwed.
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The pace of what is taking place in Energy is astonishing.
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5 Yr returns for S&P Energy about to overtake S&P Ex-Energy
And that's with TWO shale collapses
Buy and Hold, Mr. Generalist
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This is how the elite think. Time for everyone in every industry to have a Nat Gas macro view.
even if russia cuts off all the gas (as is likely), it increasingly looks like germany can get through the winter without severe rationing.
very good news. russia’s energy influence over europe is nearly over.
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