HFI Research
@HFI_Research
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Contrarian Investment Research: Energy (Oil & Gas)
Structural Supply Deficit
Joined November 2015
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Cathie Wood is legit selling all her liquid positions and doubling down.
Wow.
Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's trade activity from today 3/4
$SHOP $FB $GOOGL $SQ $TDOC $U $Z $ZM $ROKU $PYPL $TSM $ICE $TCEHY $NTDOY $WKHS $AMZN $AAPL $OPEN $NFLX
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So rumor mill was that Bridgewater liquidated their oil positions.
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Oh my god.
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Last time the Economist proclaimed the end of the oil age.
Thanks for playing.
The Economist finally did it!
"Oil fuelled the 20th century—its cars, its wars, its economy and its geopolitics. Now the world is in the midst of an energy shock that is speeding up the shift to a new order."
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US oil demand is absolutely horrid.
For those of you that think oil prices will "spike" from here, the reality check is demand destruction is already here.
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To those of you doubting the oil supercycle, please remember that there were ~260 million bbls of SPR released in 2022 to combat elevated oil prices. If it were not for this record SPR release, oil prices would have approached closer to $140/bbl, which would have resulted in
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The global oil market is not ready for what's coming. The US has, in essence, subsidized the rest of the world via SPR release and elevated crude exports. That's all about to end as US crude storage gets tight.
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Energy investors after seeing Jim Cramer being bullish tech.
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LETS FUCKING GO!
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US crude storage with SPR falls below 900 million bbls.
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Energy insiders are buying while every other insiders in every other sector are selling.
🤔
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This oil market is so nuts.
Spec near record low.
OPEC+ effective cut at least ~1.5 million b/d.
Demand not great, but not horrendous.
It is what it is I suppose.
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To those of you that doubted us after API’s report, please don’t follow us anymore.
For those that never did, ❤️
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Some of these twitter replies I get are just absolutely mind boggling.
I’ll clarify it one more time.
Bullish energy stocks.
Crude is rangebound.
Refining margins will go down.
Holy shit people. Read the fkn articles.
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If I’m right, and I hope to god I am.
-7 to -9 million bbls total draw next week.
Jesus take the wheel.
Finalized estimate shows a crude draw next week.
3-2-1 spreads still moving higher.
Product draws also likely next week.
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For the first time since 1983, US commercial crude storage is now higher than SPR.
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Oh man, I'm going to have to change the Y-axis again...
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You do not need to be a specialist in energy to know something is wrong with this chart.
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By our estimation, EIA has overstated US crude storage by 8 to 9 million bbls.
These will reverse over the coming weeks.
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In all seriousness, I don't know how many people realize how significant this EIA PSM/914 report was (just published for November).
In our real-time US oil production tracking dataset, November 2023 was supposed to be at an all-time high. While headline figures did point to a
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Jim Cramer: "I am calling the top on oil"
Congrats oil bulls
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Energy investors vs:
- 7 year bear market
- Fed raising rates
- US SPR release
- Macro slowdown
- Strong Dollar
- Iran sanction relief
- ESG
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Honestly, I don't know what's more ridiculous at this point.
IEA has been steadily revising down oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025. But then total demand stays the same because it is revising higher 2023 oil demand.
At some point, you just have to believe IEA is full of shit.
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My advice: don’t try and use fundamentals to try and figure out the energy market right now.
Just survive.
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Oil is not selling off because Goldman downgraded some price target. No.
It’s selling off because physical market remains weak.
Brent backwardation is almost gone.
Need inventories to draw, when it does, prices will rebound.
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Heads up.
Our preliminary shows another similar sized draw in crude next week.
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Good lord. Brent 1-2 almost recovered the entire drop.
Physical market will be your guide. People comparing today to 2008 know nothing about the oil market.
In 08, we were threatening contango by now.
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My guess is a lot of funds shorted oil and energy stocks in anticipation of a recession while holding growth tech names.
The extra pain will come if oil is green just as this massive trade unwinds.
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JPM: The case for $150 oil and Supercycle 4.0 in charts.
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How to make millions for dummies 101
Step 1: Start a suspicious news website
Step 2: Short oil
Step 3: Leak fake ceasefire news
Step 4: Cover short position
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Sometimes, you need to be empirical and accept the data and not be biased by your own biases.
And sometimes, you need to just really ask the common sense question like how the fuck is it possible?
EIA implied gasoline demand is below 2020? Below COVID?
This is vs
@GasBuddyGuy
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I get the whole SPR argument, but let's be real.
This is fkn nuts.
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Just 2 months ago, we saw peak bullishness. Fast forwarding to today, we are seeing peak bearishness in oil just as global oil inventories start to decline.
It is what it is.
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Heads up.
Preliminary estimate shows a jump in US crude exports and a drop in imports.
Crude draw coming next week.
Finalized estimates out to subs on Friday.
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Oil sold off because of possible peace deal.
Now there’s no peace deal.
🤷♂️
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Global onshore crude inventory data is so bullish that it's making people do a double take.
The same double take I did when I saw how much Saudi and Russia decreased crude exports this month.
We will know soon enough.
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API
-7.4mb for crude
-0.3 gasoline
-0.4 distillate
API is supposed to be more bearish on crude than EIA.
EIA could report -8 to -10 million bbls.
You know what that means. WTI down 10% tomorrow 😂
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Fuck it. One day early, let's hold the bottom.
Our crude estimate for July 26 week.
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Copper breakout.
EIA reports massive product draw.
Implied US oil production below 13 million b/d.
What is this? My birthday? 😍
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Why do people in financial markets treat changing your mind like a sin?
Our job is to react, not to predict. If you think you are in the business of predicting, then all the emotional and cognitive biases will ruin you.
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I think energy is about to materially outperform tech.
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“OPEC+” TAKE THE WHEEL!!!
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The current oil sell-off is creating a sense of false security for the bears, and pushing the oil bulls to the brink of exhaustion.
Similarly, this time last year, oil kept rallying despite disappointing demand and no production loss from Russia.
This time? Demand is better.
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I promise I'm not doing this on purpose.
Disregard preliminary.
Another large crude draw.
Heads up.
Preliminary estimates for next week show a smaller crude draw due to lower US crude exports.
Finalized estimates out on Friday.
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U.S. oil demand is starting to fire on all cylinders, U.S. shale oil production is peaking, speculator positioning is close to record bearish, and SPR release is ending.
The oil market is asymmetrically positioned going forward.
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To put things in perspective, a lot of energy stocks have only returned back to pre-COVID.
The market is not valuing them at $65/bbl WTI let alone $75.
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We redeployed all of our sideline cash today.
With refining margins moving higher and global oil inventories set to drop in the coming weeks, we liked what we saw in both energy stock performance and oil.
Speculator positioning reset complete. Let’s keep watching margins.
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Crude build this week came entirely from the big dip in crude exports.
It’s temporary.
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Disregard preliminary.
Another large crude draw.
Heads up.
Next week's preliminary crude estimate shows a draw, but smaller than this week's. Crude exports will drop w-o-w, while imports remain elevated.
Finalized estimate out on Friday.
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Investors selling off energy stocks like oil went back to $50.
There have been some really dark days in energy land. This is not even close to being bad.
Not even close.
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One week left in July and it looks real this time around.
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Wow, I don't know if people realized but EIA's monthly oil production report showed headline figures of 13.248 million b/d but -373k b/d in adjustment.
Effective production is 12.875 million b/d.
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The Oil Structural Supply Deficit Thesis Is Underway
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Refining margins are looking really crazy.
Consumers are already paying ~$172/bbl oil.
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Very good oil storage report.
Big jump in implied oil demand.
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How energy investors get ready for the markets everyday.
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Huge total liquids draw!!!
YES!!!!!
If I’m right, and I hope to god I am.
-7 to -9 million bbls total draw next week.
Jesus take the wheel.
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Heads up.
Expect another decent sized crude draw next week.
🔥
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Well. It’s safe to say that this report was bullish as fuck.
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There it is. The surplus y-o-y in product storage is gone.
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I think we need to be honest about where we are headed in the oil market.
Demand weakness is real and showing up in the data now. Global oil inventories showed builds in the last few weeks.
Russia is not showing any signs of production loss.
Don't see how we can go higher.
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Jesus take the wheel.
Back to back?
If I’m right, another -7 to -10 total liquids draw.
If I’m right, and I hope to god I am.
-7 to -9 million bbls total draw next week.
Jesus take the wheel.
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Largest US weekly crude storage draw in history, and oil is down on US debt downgrade, go figures.
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Large crude selloff is not translating to physical market weakness.
Saudi OSP cut was expected by traders. Positioning and index rebalancing are key reasons for this sudden one day fall.
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Don't bite on oil going higher. It will just be another headfake as Russia has transactional friendships with China and India
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