FPL Optimized
@FPLOptimized
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FPL Tools | Analytics | Podcast 📊 Your analytical edge in FPL | 🚀 We turn data into FPL insights YT: Pod:
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Pinned Tweet
🚀 Launching the official Twitter for
#FPLOptimized
! Your go-to spot for cutting-edge
#FPL
analysis, tips, and community insights. Dive into the world of analytical FPL management with us! 📊⚽
#FantasyPremierLeague
#FPLCommunity
6
17
52
Bonus Episode Alert! 🚀
Navigating the final FPL stretch with JC (
@FPL_Spaceman
) & Alastair (TedLassoRegen,
@extramac123
). We dive into cup uncertainties, fixture forecasts, and chip strategy optimization using solvers. A must-listen for strategic insights! 🍟
7
24
81
📢 Tomorrow we are interviewing the maverick Andy Martin (
@fpl_tactician
).
Curious about his bold strategies or want tips on planning daring chip strats? Drop your questions below!
#FPL
25
2
65
Episode 79 of FPL Optimized Podcast is out!
In this special episode Andy Martin (
@fpl_tactician
) answered questions about chip strategy, analytical gameplay, mindset, his season, and the ones we received from you.
Enjoy!🥣
5
14
52
Welcome to
#FPLOptimized
's Twitter/X feed.
We are an analytics-oriented FPL podcast, and we combine AI and optimization with FPL news to provide you interesting insights.
Here is a quick recap of our latest Q&A episode (
#73
) and the visuals we have shared.
#FPL
1
11
47
Episode 88 is out!
In this special episode, we hosted 3 analytics managers (
@FF_Trout
@FPL_Spaceman
@FplPresident
) and talked about risk/variance in FPL: how it is measured and how it is applied.
4
9
31
Dive into mind of a champion! 🏆
Curious about what it takes to win FPL? We sat down with Jonas, 2023/2024
#FPL
champion, for an exclusive Q&A. Discover his first season using analytics, winning strategies, and insights on risk-taking for tips that might just change your game!
2
7
27
Oh, season review is back with new features. Love it. Bars make it look like an fbref player page 🔥
MD rank of 72 (Mins) and 61 (xMins).
1
1
26
Episode 75 of
#FPLOptimized
is here 🎉 A special milestone on our journey to 100!
🚀 In this unique Q&A session, we used answers from our expert panel to dive deep into
#FPL
analytics:
- Neil Rankin
- Talha Nadeem
- Alastair (TedLassoRegen)
- FPL Chase
- FF Trout
2
6
23
FPL Optimized Podcast Episode 73 🎙️
We have discussed a lot, and answered questions about:
- Solver parameters
- Horizon length
- Differential balance
- Patience vs flexibility
- Ideal chip times
- Salah & Son replacements
- Differential options
1
6
22
We had to skip our usual
#FPL
content due to our special episode, but here are all the visuals we have for GW33.
1
3
20
New episode is out! 👨🍳
We had a look at the long GW ahead of us and upcoming horizon from an analytical point of view.
- Projected point averages at team level
- Projected value changes at player level
- Optimal WC21 teams
- TAA replacements
- Captaincy
1
4
20
Last regular episode of the season is out. Thanks for joining us through this season. ❤️
We will be back with post-season review next week, and will have some interviews for you to enjoy in upcoming weeks.
3
4
20
New Episode Alert!
Bas and Sertalp are both on WC35 and BB37 plan.
In this episode, we covered
- Fixture Ticker
- GW Odds
- Optimal WC35 teams with various model and risk settings
- Robust optimal team using injury simulations
- Scenarios
- Captaincy choices for GW35-GW38
3
1
18
FPL Optimized new episode is out🔥
And now in 4K! 😎
In this episode, Bas and Sertalp cover:
- Projected point averages
- Optimal FH29 teams from 5 different models
- Optimal WC29 team and transfer plan
- Captaincy options
- Mini-league updates
🚀⚽
1
1
18
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3
17
🚀 New Episode Alert! Bas is ready to pull the trigger on Free Hit for GW34! 🎯 Dive into our latest
#FPLOptimized
episode (
#89
) where we dissect:
Projected Point Averages
Optimal WC34 teams
Optimal Free Hit 34 teams ⚽
Captaincy Options 👑
#FPL
#FPL
2
2
15
New podcast episode is out!
In this episode, Jonny (
@FPL_Spaceman
) joins Bas (
@belfibb
) while Sertalp needs a rest.
Jonny and Bas cover
- Fixture ticker
- Optimal squads
- Captaincy options
- Mini-league updates
2
4
15
New chip episode! 🍟🎙️
GW29 fixtures are in, but 34/37 still loom like a tactical puzzle 🧩
In episode 82, we unravel optimal chip plans with insights from Ben Crellin & Planet FPL, including WC27+FH29, WC27+FH34, as well as dead-ending in GW29, and optimal FH29 teams.
Enjoy 📊⚽
4
5
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And finally captaincy options from models as of yesterday. The values might change until deadline, but values should remain close, it is very close this GW.
In average, models project following points:
Saka - 5.85
Palmer - 5.80
Odegaard - 5.19
Darwin - 4.82
Foden - 4.80
0
2
13
Decided to stick to the plan: get Bruno, roll 2nd, and cap Saka.
Stochastic optimization solver was key to checking multiple scenarios considering both Salah's return GW and Liverpool's fixture change.
Fingers crossed.
1
0
12
New episode is out! With 2 Jacks, we have talked about developing and using predictive models for various fantasy football games, and the future of analytical play. Great guests and a great episode!
3
3
12
New
#FPLOptimized
episode! We're breaking down GW22 and GW23 with latest projections. 📊⚽
In this episode⭐
- Season Graphs 📉
- Fixture Ticker / Projected Point Averages
- EV Changes
- Optimal WC22 Team
- Captaincy Picks
- Mini-league Updates 🏆
#FPLCommunity
#FPL
1
2
10
Episode 81 of FPL Optimized podcast is out. We have discussed optimal team for BGW26 and beyond.
1
1
10
New episode alert ⚡
In this episode, we have talked about:
- Fixture Ticker
- GW Odds
- WC30 Chip Plans
- WC30 Optimal Teams
- Captaincy Options
- FPL Challenge
- Mini-league Updates
1
0
10
This one takes the cake. Wow.
0
0
10
Season not going well so far? Worry not, we have a "Analytics Second Chance" mini-league starting this GW. Join the league with the link below.
1
2
9
Episode 78 of FPL Optimized is out! ⚽
Join us as we talk about the upcoming period of doubles and blanks, share the optimal wildcard team, and discuss sensitivity analysis results.
2
1
8
No pod this week 🏖️
We will be back soon with a season review episode!
0
0
8
Pod:
YouTube:
0
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This is what happens when you ask ChatGPT to make an image more extreme. Big oof. 😬
0
0
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Another Q/A episode is coming this week. Ask us about your FPL questions and we will try our best to get answers from our experts 🔥
#FPL
We will be recording a Q/A episode with
@BelfiBB
for this week's pod.
Ask us and our experts
-
@talha_nadeem_90
and
@extramac123
: fixtures and chips
-
@NeilRankinZA
: projection models
-
@FPL_Chase
: life without FPL
and we will read their answers in the episode!
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3
20
0
1
5
Optimal WC21 teams using FPLReview, Mikkel Tokvam, and their equal weight ensemble. For the ensemble model, the transfer plan includes 1-GW punt on Toney.
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0
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4) Using
@f_analytic
's data, it seems like GK and DF points are lower compared to last season, despite MD and FW points are almost the same in average. It might be due to longer extra times, but requires further digging to be sure.
1
2
5
7) High EV, low EO players are your best bet if you insist on getting a differential. Always check how much EV you are giving up by picking such players.
Some examples that fit into this category:
Odegaard
De Bruyne
B.Fernandes
Eze
G.Jesus
Martinelli
1
0
4
YouTube 📽️
Podcast 🎙️
0
1
4
Fixture goat loves analytics
🗓️🐐❤️📈
Everyone on FPL Analytics Twitter is posting their Predicted/Realized graph today so here’s mine
via
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1
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😎⚡
A new badge for our FPL Optimized pod; We released an episode for 25 weeks in a row.🥳 Apparently we never did that before... It took quite some effort & dedication (i.e. recording during holidays) but we did it.😅 Thank you
@sertalpbilal
for the teamwork!🤝
#FPL
@TransistorFM
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23
0
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That's all from Episode
#73
of
#FPLOptimized
! 🚀 Remember, we're not just about numbers; we're about giving you the edge in your FPL journey with AI-driven insights and analytical approaches. 📊⚽
Stay tuned for more updates, and don't hesitate to join the conversation!
0
0
3
@FPLFutbolmetrix
@CoalportGlen
@erik_k_garcia
@fplreview
Trout has a great summary of it under his pinned tweet here
0/14 An Application of Stochastic Programming to FPL: robust planning under fixture uncertainty using Linear Optimisation with Recourse ⤵️
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Interesting discussion. Two things to add:
1. 'Optimal' not necessarily mean maximizing projected points; you can maximize probability of passing your mini league rival, which might include different players.
2. Template is close to optimal if
@LetsTalk_FPL
is close to it 😆
1
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YouTube:
It should be available in all major podcast apps
0
0
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And finally the latest status in our mini-league. Sundeep is still leading the ML, and we have 9 people in top 100.
0
0
4
GW33 Odds are shared by
@robtFPL
City's goal rate and CS odds are insanely high. Great CS odds for top 3 teams and Brentford this GW.
1
0
2
@CoalportGlen
@erik_k_garcia
@fplreview
A better way to automate this is using stochastic optimization, but it is not implemented in the public version of the solver yet.
1
0
2
Raw Optimal WC33 with FH34 and BB37. 29 more EV than WC alone, with great EV in 34 (105) and 37 (119).
1
0
2
Audio version should be available in your favorite podcast app shortly.
YouTube version
0
0
2
@erik_k_garcia
@FPLFutbolmetrix
@fplreview
Linear Optimization, if given enough time, always finds optimal and proves that in the feasible space there can't be anything better. Heuristics can't do it, so you might end up finding something better if you keep looking 'more'. I will explain in detail in the next episode.
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Although, it is worth mentioning that Haaland has the highest goal projection of the season so far. Markets (and market based models) are much warmer to Haaland.
The highest single-game player goal projections so far this season, per spread betting markets
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22
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0
3
Optimal captaincy choices based on various projection models. Seems like Haaland is ahead everywhere except analytics-favored models (Review and Mikkel Tokvam). In ensemble, only 0.24 EV difference favoring Haaland.
1
0
3
An early reward for KDB owners.
The real question is, though, do you like his new hairstyle? 😅 I'm not a fan tbh.
7) High EV, low EO players are your best bet if you insist on getting a differential. Always check how much EV you are giving up by picking such players.
Some examples that fit into this category:
Odegaard
De Bruyne
B.Fernandes
Eze
G.Jesus
Martinelli
1
0
4
1
0
2
@FPLRishi1991
We don't have a solver on the website but I'll send you a few options in a DM about how you can run a solver.
-Sertalp
0
0
1
@FPL_Hunt
@Aaronjc77
@FPL_Kante
We have talked about this a bit when answering 'how to play FPL analytically' in our episode from last week.
1
0
2
YouTube:
0
0
2
YouTube version:
0
0
2
@TravisMcKil
@sertalpbilal
@BelfiBB
Sorry, just catching up. Injuries certainly do change the optimal teams and moves within the horizon. We will try to have a look at it for GW28.
1
0
1
YouTube:
Audio:
Apologies for the video quality, we will fix it in the next episode.
1
0
1
@OvernightFPL
That's a good question! We have already recorded for this GW, but will try to answer next week.
1
0
1
YouTube:
Should be available in your favorite podcast app, too!
0
0
1
@FPLAmateur1
@fplreview
@sertalpbilal
It is a bit difficult to judge, to be honest. Without the fixture certainty, comparisons are a bit iffy. 10 EV is significant enough.
1.01 decay seems to be the chip comparison decay most people use.
1
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0
1
Visuals we have used in this episode.
Projected point averages for the upcoming horizon. Note that fixtures will change, but this is what models have right now (including potential fixtures)
2
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1
@Mr_Carps1892
I am working on it! Once the game resets, they wipe the entire thing but we have a few weeks until it happens.
1
0
1
Projected point changes at player level. Most of them are injury related this GW.
1
0
1
Raw Optimal WC33 (103 TV) using
@fplreview
projections at 1.0 decay. This one is only with WC. Pretty good double coverage for GW34 (9) and GW37 (9), with 99 and 95 EV, respectively. You can also force in Haaland back to play safer, as this will expose you to risk.
1
0
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1) Solver parameters might change the solution you get, but there are no hard rules how to change them. You might want to increase free transfer value when there is a higher uncertainty, and decrease time decay base.
1
0
1
@___Brun___
@sertalpbilal
Oh sorry for missing it. Yes it takes care of autosub. I sample values twice (one before GW starts, one after) so that autosub values are correctly taken into account. Live GW graph always take care of autosub, even during GW.
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0
0
1
5) GK overperformers of the season change quite a bit, but currently Areola, Alisson, Dubravka, and Neto are overperforming. Underperformers are Ederson, Martinez, Flekken, and Steele.
1
0
1
2) The ideal horizon length is somewhere between 6 and 8 GWs. Anything less might lead to suboptimality after the horizon. Anything more might lead you to sacrifice too much immediate gain, and can fall apart when an injury/rotation happens.
1
0
1
@fpl_tactician
@420fpl
Short-term decisions causing long-term issues is still a nice edge for people with actual optimal (or close to optimal) teams. 👍
0
0
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Raw Optimal WC33 with FH34. You gain 10 EV with FH, and have 11 double GW players in both 34 and 37 with 105 and 96 EV, respectively.
1
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@FPL_Cricket
Hahah, great catch. I benched Ederson, too, so not sure if I would be surprised if it happens 😂
0
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3) Solver increases variance in this order:
- Benching (if EV is close, prefer lower own%)
- Some Captaincy (if EV is close, prefer lower own%)
- Differential picks
- All Captaincy.
Changing your captain is the easiest way to introduce variance without breaking your team.
1
0
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