Chase
@FPL_Chase
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Data + viz enthusiast ( #Python & #PowerBI ) • FPL 2x top 5k • @FPLReview Elite 1k 📈 • Real Madrid fan since 1998 🤍• (not the actual Chevy Chase)
FPL 20/21: 17k | 21/22: 19k
Joined May 2013
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Pinned Tweet
🗓️EPL non-pen xG rolling calendar - April '23
• MCI back where they belong
• Relegation scrap getting the best out of NFO
• MUN, honestly...
• NEW bouncing back defensively
• CHE have made ~0 progress this season
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If this was Pep fielding a DM and RB as his CB pairing and kept a CS v main title competition, the Athletic and Tifo would have produced at least 3 podcasts and 2 YouTube analysis by now
Tchouameni & Carvajal defending vs Girona whilst playing out of position
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Haaland for 15.2 is not worth it anymore. He was projected to score only 27.5 gls this season so that leaves him with a projection of 20.5 gls in the next 35 GWs, that’s ~0.586 gls per GW.
#FPL
Analytics is simple. You just have to have the right data at your disposal.
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Gabriel/Saliba drama is exactly what I meant when talked on
@FplScript
pod.
The 'edge' is no longer being patient, EV oriented strategist. The 'edge' is now being super obsessed with the game, having the free time to be online around deadlines all season long.
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5 Best Kept Secrets in the World:
1. Story of Taj Mahal
2. Hitler's death
3. Origin of COVID
4. Cocal-Cola formula
5. WOL - MCI 21/22 fixture
#FPL
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I will never forget this day.
The stress, the worries, the adrenaline, all followed by genuine joy & relief.
Our son has been born 👶🥰
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Just for illustration, this is how EPL teams fared in allowing/suppressing opposition open play shots in the first 6 GWs.
The number under each subplot is open play xG conceded per game.
⚠️All the typical small sample caveats apply
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'A lottery winner explains in full detail how he picked his winning ticket' 🤪
Explaining how and why I never had Haaland since GW1 and sit Top 68 🌎
- A THREAD 🧵
#FPL
#FPLCommunity
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After 12 seasons, I decided to call it quits on FPL.
'Lived it, loved it' ❤️
From the early days of FB groups, obsessively following Ville Rönkä's team on FISO, through conversations with Fábio Borges, to chatting with the new age 🐐
@FPL_Jan
, I can honestly say 'I WAS THERE'.
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Hey guys,
I have updated my EPL team model processing latest 538 (FiveThirtyEight) spi shifts and here is the final version of my projected CS and Goals for the first 8 GWs.
Based on the projections I have made earlier, here are preliminary projected CS and Goals for the first 6 GWs
Could be an easy visual reference for some early tinkering
#FPL
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The way how Ancelotti simply ditched the legacy 4-3-3 at Real Madrid and invented a custom role for Bellingham based on what he saw during pre-season training isn’t talked enough.
This sort of approach is almost extinct in modern football. He literally gave birth to a supernova
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Based on the projections I have made earlier, here are preliminary projected CS and Goals for the first 6 GWs
Could be an easy visual reference for some early tinkering
#FPL
After a decent season for my team model predictions, I'm having my first stab at season projections.
These are still subject to change due to market activity (538 shifts).
P.S. It may not seem like much, but it's honest merge, chop, transpose, index and re-index work.
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Clean sheets and goals projections GW3-8
Updating my model with the latest data & fixing a major bug I had in the previous version.
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EPL Team Model Update GW9-16
If anyone's interested, here are my team goals and clean-sheet projections for the pre-World Cup run in.
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Whoever tells you this is how football is supposed to be played from the back…
stay away from them
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If this was Conte's team, it would be the epitome of modern press-resistance, ball progression, off-ball movement + **add more buzz words.
But since it's Ancelotti, it's just 'old-fashioned vibes'
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Haaland's xG overperformance trajectory is kinda scary!👀
The wet dream of 'what if elite finisher joined City' has probably become reality. A team that generates bucket loads of xG is getting this beast and I don't think I will miss out in
#FPL
.
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this was a tactical masterclass from Ancelotti
Real Madrid 4 : 0 Girona
▪ xG: 2.85 - 0.14
▪ xThreat: 1.29 - 0.82
▪ Possession: 52.9% - 47.1%
▪ Field Tilt: 49.8% - 50.2%
▪ Def Action Height: 43.2 - 45.6
#msbot_spa
#laliga
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-𝗔𝗿𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘀-
Haaland: £51m
Alvarez: £15m
Phillips: £45m
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥: £𝟏𝟏𝟐𝐦
-𝗗𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀-
Ferran: £52m
Jesus: £50m
Bazunu: £15m
Porro: £7m
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥: £𝟏𝟐𝟒𝐦
Man City currently at £12m profit 😭
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Have realized there are no further GWs to be played this month so let's have a look at the team performance trends...
March update 📅:
Offense:
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🗓️August 2022 update
We have a full month of
#FPL
in 22/23 behind us (sorry MUN and LEI) so here is an update of the 'rolling npxG calendar' I maintain.
There have been some... ermm... developments. 👀
*no promoted sides yet
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Me when casually browsing through Ismaila Sarr's last 6 GWs data:
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I know this is a joke
but making the pricing 'easy' is exactly why this game will be 'harder' relatively speaking
as the edge of working around budget constraints and scouting potential gens from lower table clubs practically lost its value
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Offensive/defensive performance of EPL teams based on rolling non-penalty xG averages
February Update 📅:
Offense:
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Finished 19k.
Some mistakes, neither lucky nor unlucky.
But more importantly - learned to code (a bit), built my own team model, delved into some machine learning, built some viz and improved in few analytical areas... oh and featured in an FPL podcast.
My best season ever.
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Ran 50 iterations with randomized noise using:
- Review/Mikkel 50:50 split
- 7 GWs horizon, 2 allowed FTs
- more aggressive 0.8 decay
I ran it for myself, but since it took hours, maybe someone will find it useful too
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Last season I have been tracking PL teams performance on a monthly basis using an easy to read 2D heatmap viz.
Here's a short season overview:
Offense:
- A 2-horse race for most of the season
- TOT & ARS markedly improved in 2nd half
- MUN were OK for a short spell
- LEI 🤷♂️
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EPL Team projections GW11-16
If anyone finds these useful, here is an update for the next 6 GWs.
Also give a follow to
@FPL_Strategic
who publishes summary of projections from multiple models ahead of each GW.
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Here is a breakdown of the 22/23 EPL games to date, by the team npxG performance.
Will be hoping to update this on a semi-regular basis.
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By the way, I was under the impression Brentford have nothing to play for, while Spurs play for UCL spot. Funny, looks like Spurs were lucky to get a draw.
Perhaps the golden rule of 'motivation'… isn’t really so golden and we shouldn’t get carried away by this narrative.
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The best part is that Carlo paired these two and ASKED them which side they preferred.
Imagine…
🎙| Ancelotti: "Carvajal said it was the same, right or left, so I put him on the left because Tchouaméni preferred to play on the right. And it seemed that Carvajal had played 400 games in that position, unbelievable. You can't say anything to Carvajal."
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For anyone following my projections, here is another 6 GWs update after including two weeks of new data points.
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If you could give any FPL manager just one single piece of advice, what would it be?
Mine would be:
Remember not to overreact after a miserable GW. Let it blow over.
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Haaland 🇳🇴 over/under xG update:
Hot 🔥 finishing climb continues in the early EPL days.
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Concerned Robbo owner?
Hold your horses, this is his heatmap from yesterday. 👀🔥
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First WC34 draft
no booked transfers as playing BB is stressful enough
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Something to go with your morning coffee ☕️
An illustration of spatial distribution of conceded open-play xG for EPL teams in 22/23.
Most of the teams will inevitably show similar patterns due to the nature of xG.
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🗓️Oct 2022 update:
The Rolling EPL xG Calendar - First one with promoted sides!
It's been an eventful start to the season.
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January Update 📅:
Offensive/defensive performance of EPL teams trending over the past calendar year using non-penalty xG 12-match rolling averages (adjusted for schedule difficulty)
Data:
@fbref
Offense:
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Logged on this morning and I see people on here committing to -8 or even -12 early to beat the the price changes on a UCL week.
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Honestly, unless you’re hyper-engaged and have some track record with calling marginal decisions…
I don’t believe having bench as deep as to make it a decision whether or not to play Palmer away to Luton is a good strategy for most
#FPL
players.
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How would a simple regression model evaluate relative importance of the often used performance metrics in FPL?
I have merged
@OfficialFPL
data with
@fbref
and trained a lreg model to asses selected features:
- npxG/90
- xA/90
- shots/90
- c. created/90
- mins per apperance
1/3
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🗓️The Rolling EPL xG Calendar: Sept. 2022 update
Yes, we really won't have any more EPL games in September. 🥴
*no promoted sides yet
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Kiwi🥝(
@theFPLkiwi
) has recently released his initial FPL projections!
So I have had a look at the most robust initial picks for the first 8 GWs stretch using
@sertalpbilal
optimization model & sensitivity analysis.
Some interesting picks👀
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What we really need is an interactive interface marriage of
@fbref
with
@OfficialFPL
.
My quick mock-up with PowerBI👇
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Pro Tip:
Haaland non-cappers if you delete the team tonite, it may not register the GW1 result and your OR history remains intact 👌
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🗓️Non-pen xG rolling calendar - August '23
- ⚽️Yes, EPL is back and so are xG calendars!
- No promoted sides yet
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FPL Optimization - The Ultra Dullard Edition
leveraging EV from
@fplreview
and optimization model by
@sertalpbilal
here is the preliminary sensitivity analysis for scenario where you DON'T plan any transfers for the first 6 GWs
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Sterling beats Salah on both xG and xA today.
No regrets here, it was a sensible pick.
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Open play xG conceded | EPL 2022/23
**Time to update some of the templates I have
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I know he is 20, but I think he is the 🏴🐐 already
Not sure I recall any player to be THIS impactful at this age. Not even Messi
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The way how people on my timeline internalize the poor results of their
#FPL
teams is worrying.
It's out of your hands what happens out there every weekend. You will drive yourself mad before too long, if you think you are actually 'managing' real life players.
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I really don’t get this pleas for followers.
Like why do you need followers just for the sake of it?
And no, that’s not the only way to build your account, the usual way is to interact and contribute.
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🗓️EPL non-pen xG rolling calendar - December '23
- ARS now the best EPL side overall
- Clear-ish top 3 has been formed
- Iraiola is indeed cooking
- NEW drop in defense from month to month is staggering
- we also have a new worst team in town (LUT)
- SHU improved under Wilder
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GW 16 😘💥💥
Totally awestruck, stayed away from results and social media until today.
🏁 105 pts
🌍 OR 192
🇸🇰 No. 1 in Slovakia for 12th consecutive week 💪
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Re Haaland
It's funny to recall all the 'Bundesliga tax' shouts after the Community Shield from the 'true' football fans, while 'spreadsheet warriors' had to defend probably the most prolific goalscoring talent of the decade.
Not xG, actual GOALS
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Guys, there’s genuinely so much wrong with this tweet. How can anyone still… ah
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I'm perfectly fine with capping Jimenez. Easy logical choice.
If I was to judge every single FPL decision by it's outcome, I would have learned absolutely nothing and while driving myself crazy.
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Wow, FPL has been up for 16 hours and it has already 560k+ registrations 👀
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Morning all
@coinflipgoesbrr
and
@elevenify
asked me for an update on the 'Haaland viz', so here you go.
He's hot. Very hot.
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@EidurZelkov
@brfootball
I can't believe this moronic campaign. Everyone screaming about video refereeing and making the game fair and just. First time it gets into action, internet complains about it. SMH.
Nothing will change with VAR, any call that goes against your team is automatically fraud.
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The silver lining on this Darwin fiasco is that if you have brought him in for Mitro with no bench, there is literally just the FT or -4 wasted on this one.
In the scheme of all FPL heartbreaks we go through, this is virtually nothing.
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🚫
Had a good long chat with Antonio Conte here in Haifa. Here's the post-match stuff he said on Djed Spence, what he expects from Matt Doherty and Ivan Perisic, what he liked about Richarlison, a Ben Davies update and plenty more to come.
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Brought in Martial and KDB this week.
I remain a master strategist.
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Here you go Si
@analytic_fpl
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#FPL
3 best chip iterations for my team
The pure EV is quite close over the next 6 GWs, hard to call.
Leaning towards playing WC this week, but my spider sense is tingling
Cheers
@sertalpbilal
for the amazing Python solver addition, and
@fplreview
&
@MikkelTokvam
for the EV
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GW1 deadline is gone and I don’t have a team
Me
After 12 seasons, I decided to call it quits on FPL.
'Lived it, loved it' ❤️
From the early days of FB groups, obsessively following Ville Rönkä's team on FISO, through conversations with Fábio Borges, to chatting with the new age 🐐
@FPL_Jan
, I can honestly say 'I WAS THERE'.
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🗓️EPL non-pen xG rolling calendar - February '23
• ARS... oh boy 😳look at that D 🛡️
• Iraiola & Dyche (now +4 pts🥳) still cooking 👨🍳
• NEW defense unlocked 'NEW' level of bad 💀
• Are BRE 🐝 running out of steam?
• SHU have low key improved, mostly in D 🛡️
Anything else?
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The most outrageous and daring attempt ever scored in a
#UCL
final
Thanks for the memories
@GarethBale11
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It's actually mind-blowing how good Brighton defense has been at home this season overall.
For a mid-table team, this is absolutely amazing. 🤯
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Sad to see how much abuse someone anonymous like Fábio gets in his virtually first poor FPL season.
And people were wondering why he never joins this space.
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Collecting all the rolling xG charts updates for January '23 into one thread for anyone interested in keeping up with the developments
🏴Premier League
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Having doubts about bringing either of Barnes or Rondon this week.
I could actually save FT and play:
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I can see some FPL players worried about scarce captaincy options for GW12.
I'm not worried at all, I'm sure I can safely hit that 1 or 2 pointer once again.
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Top ranked
#FPL
assets for the next 6 GWs based on their mean rank across the various models.
As discussed on the Optimized pod
#FPL
Optimized Podcast - New Episode ⛅️
With Bas, we have talked about
▪️ Fixture Difficulty
▪️ EV Gains and Losses
▪️ Optimal WC5 team
▪️ Captaincy options
YouTube:
Audio:
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- "KDB good!"
-"Salah better!"
-"Nope, KDB it is!"
Am I now an FPL content creator?
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Just out of curiosity...
I ran
#WC9
sensitivity analysis using mean of projection values from
@fplreview
,
@theFPLkiwi
&
@MikkelTokvam
in the search for really, really robust picks for the pre-WC run in.
*this has been run before Pickford/Iversen news
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