the Transfer Algorithm
@MikkelTokvam
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🏆 Manager Ratings, September 2021 🏆
🥇 Fábio Borges
🥈
@FPL_Badgers9
🥉
@sporten123
7.
@FPLBaldEagle24
20.
@FFScout_Mark
74.
@MagnusCarlsen
93.
@FPL_Salah
Find your own team in the full spreadsheet (use ctrl+f):
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The cup games finally settled. Updating the Transfer Algorithm based on the future probabilistic fixture list until the end.
The teams are ranked based on no. of fixtures in the next 8. But the list is pretty much upside down come the last 8 GWs. Its the WC swing right there.
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434
You know, back in the days, we had to field players like Michu, Tadic, Nolan, Mirallas or Walters as well as some one season wonders like Lundstram to work out or budget constraint.
Give me old FPL pricing back,
thank you.
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The Transfer Algorithm is based on a probabilistic distribution of postponed fixtures based on what we know. Also, Gw 30 a big blank week.
In this mayhem of postponements, this is how it currently looks for no. of fixtures per GW:
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Fabio Borges was among the very first users of the Transfer Algorithm back in 2015. It has served him quite well since.
He's also using other reference points to help his decision making processes.
Finally, blend in my, your and a fair share of luck, and you're getting there.
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80 points. Up to 1k. Luck is a dominant factor.
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Here are the updated no. of fixtures per GW until the end of the season. Pretty settled now.
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With the Liverpool-Leeds DGW 26 rumour in, and the TOT-BRI GW 26 rumour fading a bit, this is the revised probabilistic distribution of FPL fixtures fed into the Transfer Algorithm:
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The Transfer Algorithm updated after tonights matches - showing the best players to hold going forward sorted by Budget-Constrained-Value.
Now also evaluating goalkeepers.
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Another day of cup matches gone by and fixtures now settled for GW 20.
The Transfer Algorithm updated to the corresponding probabilities of future fixtures.
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One GW passed and FA Cup matches out of the way, defining the likely # of matches per GW further:
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The single DGW 25 announcement and non-announcement for the other postponed matches when setting up the February TV schedule imply reduced probabilities for more fixtures in the near term.
The rumour for DGW 26 taken into account - this is my current probabilistic distribution.
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Moving onto GW 29. Such are the updated expected # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season.
It make sense for Everton and Burnley to double outside the three likely DGWs. They got an unscheduled match against each other, but might well play one each too.
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Here are the projected no. of fixtures for the final 10 GWs.
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After the most probable doubles for GW 29 announced, here are the updated projected no. of fixtures per GW until the end of the season.
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DGW announced in GW 22 as expected. Depending on United and Leeds avoiding FA Cup rematch.
Updating the Transfer Algorithm based on the future probabilistic fixture list.
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Expected no. of fixtures per GW updated on the back of DGW 27 announced.
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Transfer Algorithm updated after GW 17.
Here are the expected no. of fixtures per GW for the next nine taken into account:
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the Transfer Algorithm updated ahead of the vital free transfers for GW 17.
Taking into account the latest assumptions about blank and doubles up until GW 26.
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Probabilistic fixture distribution updated after this weekends FA Cup.
Leicester now very likely play Burnley GW 27.
The FA Cup draw didnt move much odds.
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After the Carabao Cup results, based on bookies odds and Ben Crellin's analysis, such are the current expected no. of fixtures per GW going forward:
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Last week Maguire revealed Ronaldo missing out. This week Rangnick might have revealed a DGW 25. Fixture probability distribution updated:
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Based on the FA Cup draw and current assessment, such are the expected no. of fixtures per GW going forward.
FA Cup draw looked bad for DGWs intially, but actually doesnt move numbers much in total. Heading for about 5 blanks still.
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After tonights cup-matches and draw, such are the expected no. of fixtures up until GW 29.
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91
With the fixture announcement pretty much in line with expectations, such are the expected # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season.
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88
GW 20 Deadline day assessment.
Time value and ITKs not going in favour of DGW 21.
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Roses are red, violets are blue
Chelsea and City scored ten, but it's not for you
.
What a nice goal fest. Feel honoured to witness you guys from the sidelines🥳
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The main advantage of the Free Hit Chip:
I'd always though of it as getting to buy 15 players for free for a GW. Well, it's definetly not.
It's selling them all in an instant the next GW which is truly the Free Hit Chip advantage. Surely.
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Transfer Algorithm set'n ready for the new season - as is my team. Very satisfied with my final 15 - ..until early team news.
Good luck!
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The postponement mayhem continue.
This is how it currently looks for no. of fixtures per GW until the end of the season. Burnley lack 5 fixtures, but it's actually Leicester that is most critical to schedule.
This probabilistic distribution is input to the Transfer Algorithm.
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These are pretty much the probabilities for a DGW 23.
The Transfer Algorithm is updated taking this into account, along with ie.
@BenCrellin
's assumptions.
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3.8k -> 2.1k. Green arrow.
Solid team + Mbeumo.
One FT which hopefully become two.
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After DGW 25 announced and FA Cup Rd. 5 settled, here is an updated table for expected no. of fixtures per GW:
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Projected no. of fixture per GW until the end of the season updated.
No significant changes other than GW 22 past by.
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If like me, FH in GW 18 is your plan, your transfers for GW 17 is your last move ahead of
- GW 17
- 2 league cup semifinals
- Full FA Cup round
- GW 18
and then you got one single transfer to fix all issues ahead of DGW 19. Spend it wisely, and not before you absolutely must.
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Carabao Cup QF 3/4 done. Here are the expected no. of fixtures per GW for the next 9 GWs as currently expected by the Transfer Algorithm.
To be updated based on tomorrows match and cup draw.
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The Transfer Algorithm updated ahead of GW 1.
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GW 29 passing by. Expected # of fixtures per GW from GW 30 looks like this.
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Updated probabilities for blanks and doubles after the first cup matches. We will know substantially more before deadline, so for sheer tinkering purposes:
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Updated # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season. Taking into account latest FA Cup results, and at last also the impact of the FA Cup Finalist probabilities affecting GW 37.
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After statement regarding Norwich-Chelsea rescheduling for GW 28, such are the probable # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season:
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Seems I might have forgotten to post the latest version of fixture distribution on Twitter. Shoot me at will for bringing it late here.
Whats changed since last update is taking into account some wise input from
@BenCrellin
with regard to future fixture assessment.
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Thank you all for a good season.
Richarlison -> Toney. All done.
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Due to user comments about GW 34-35, future no. of expected fixtures has been revised taking into account i.e. likelyhood of deep cup runs. But hey, it's 10 GWs down the line.
Practical planning horizon at the moment is not much further than the weather forecast - right.
Anyway
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Let alone we've gone from the earlier one to a whopping three wildcards this season. As well as the free hit to ease planning aswell.
I dont like where this is going.
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Updated fixture probabilities after latest statements from
@BenCrellin
ahead of GW 18.
In addition, there are a lot of fixtures with slim probabilities for a lot of weeks. For simplicity, those arent added.
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Fabio has spoken again.
He's been a close follower from the start of the Transfer Algorithm project 6 years ago.
Happy to witness his success!
The god of FPL himself, Fabio Borges has spoken. You want to be good in FPL, this is your starter pack + his tips, avoiding group thinking.
Watch his great interview here👇
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The Transfer Algorithm has been updated with the best players to hold going forward from GW 3:
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As time go by, as well as further insights arrive - the probabilities for short term rescheduling get lowered. Here are the current expected # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season.
The Transfer Algorithm updating accordingly.
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DGW 27 announced. Crellin's comments updated. Hence - fixture probability distribution updated:
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We are getting closer. The Transfer Algorithm updated after the last round of friendlies.
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Updated # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season. Taking into account the FA Cup draw yesterday.
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The Transfer Algorithm has been updated ahead of GW 23, taking into account the announced DGW and a probabilistic approach to the remaining rescheduling.
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CORRECTED.
As it stands, these are the best estimate probabilities of a DGW 23.
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Todays FA Cup outcomes taken into account, this is how the probabilistic fixture schedule look at the moment. Wolves and Watford increase in DGW 27 probabilities the largest mover.
Both cup matches and draw tomorrow will define this further.
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Food for thought. According to the Transfer Algorithms underlying model, these are the best players for expected points so far this season. Two attacking pairs obviously hold some nice positive correlation for luck so far this season. They are good, but dont overrate them!
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Roses are red, violets are blue,
Diogo didnt score, but Sarr hit a few.
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Updated. Such are the expected no. of fixtures until the end of the season.
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CORRECTED:
Moving onto GW 29. Such are the updated expected # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season.
It make sense for Everton and Burnley to double outside the three likely DGWs. They got an unscheduled match against each other, but might well play one each too.
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Transfer Algorithm updated after GW 23. Chances of DGW 23 gradually turning to dust.
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Probabilistic model updated after fixture rescheduling, current FA Cup odds, and
@BenCrellin
comments.
Such are the chances for blanks- and DGWs ahead atm.
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Rank 218k
Spent 1/2 FT.
Ruben Dias -> N. Williams
Building transfer kitty for Mitrovic.
Salah 🧢
GO!
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Roses are red, violets are blue
I dont own Salah, he just earned a minus two!
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Scheduled fixtures make for an updated likely # of matches per GW. The mess is cleared, so this approach of viewing future fixtures got a reduced appeal from here on in.
As for MCI/WOL/WHU, there are four lines regarding FA Cup/UEL QF. In total they strongly suggest MCI DGW 36.
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With no DGW 28 announcement for Chelsea yet, such are the expected # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season.
The Transfer Algorithm updating accordingly.
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Chance of an early DGW dwindling by. Such are the expected no. of fixtures for the next 8 GWs.
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Transfers done:
Dias -> James 🧢
Cancelo -> Rudiger
-4
Rank 1.5k
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The Transfer Algorithm updated ahead of GW 8. Good luck!
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Another week out of the way with more fixture-news Such are the expected # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season.
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Roses are red, violets are blue
Ronaldo got a goal, Lukaku got a 2.
The Algorithm is updated after todays matches.
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Captaincy will be interesting GW 9. The Transfer Algorithm currently rate Salah at 6,58 points and Lukaku at 6,59.
Meanwhile, Lukaku 🧢
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To get a blank GW 30, the current condition must be met:
1. They or their GW 30 opponent must advance two rounds in the cup.
Here are the GW 30 blank probabilities based on the FA Cup schedule for R4 - and team strength assumptions for R5.
Transfer Algo take it into account.
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Updated. Such are the expected no. of fixtures until the end of the season - as per
@BenCrellin
's latest analysis.
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As it stands sunday evening, these are the best estimate probabilities of a DGW 23. Villa, Burnley and Leeds only hopes left.
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DING DING DING.
With DGW announcement so is the expected # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season. Not so messy anymore. Until Eunice strike.
Transfer Algorithm about to get updated.
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Time went by w/o rescheduling of AVL-BUR as of yet + scheduling of MCI vs WHU/WOL revisited make for an updated likely # of matches per GW. Elsewhere only very minor changes apply :
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According to score-posts on Twitter I should only get 🔻arrows. Somehow only three have actually been red.
3.8k ↗️ 1.9k
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Two transfers spent. Now feeling empty.
Good night, twitter!
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With current FA Cup results, DGW 23 probabilities:
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Pukki -> Dennis with my FT. Strong team this week!
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Jorginho is Modric 2.0. The overrating is absurd. According to transfermarkt he's worth 45m£ aged 29, the same as Zaha and Morata. That's a fair comparison.
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After the latest cup-matches and DGW announcement, such are the expected no. of fixtures up until GW 29.
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2 FT spent.
Robertson + Neto -> Dunk + Diaz
Salah 🧢
Bring it on!
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Revision after dust settle.
Based on
@BenCrellin
's comments, chances of a DGW 28 for Arsenal and Chelsea are still there.
(And it really should have been moved there, except for heavy TV reasons)
Updated # of fixtures per GW.
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As far as current assessment go, such are the expected no. of fixtures per GW going forward.
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The Captaincy Calculator posted for GW 4.
Salah and Bruno finally up for some rivalry from here on in!
It reminds me how boring captaincy most often have been since Salah's arrival in 2017.
The game needed this!
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The Transfer Algorithm updated after tonights match.
On a side note, Im astonished by the massive support to the Algorithm project. What was back then a closed group project has since doubled every few months.
Appreciating the support along the way.
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At quite a high price, Lionel Messi would still top the Transfer Algorithm.
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The Transfer Algorithm has been updated with the latest team news ahead of GW 4.
Pro tip: Money flows are substantial on Ronaldo getting quite restricted minutes on the pitch tomorrow.
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A quick look at the past decade of top 10 performers according to the Transfer Algorithm.
Salah certainly killed the captaincy-game. A shame they cant manage to price him correctly after so long.
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GW 26 is history.
Such are the expected # of fixtures per GW until the end of the season.
Transfer Algorithm updated ahead of GW 27.
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The Transfer Algorithm has been updated with the best players to hold going forward from GW 23.
Lingard is on page two, so listen: Dont even..
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