This, many times over.
Economic theory predicts equilibrium relationships between endogenous variables. Measuring these correlations allows us to test our theories.
Structural estimation does this explicitly, but much of reduced form work would benefit from the same mindset.
I tell students that you are often better off “embracing the endogeneity” than trying to address it poorly. Understanding confounds, signing resulting bias and then clearly presenting the economic story to the reader can be quite convincing...and we still learn something.
Kalina Manova has been awarded an ERC Advanced Grant for her research project, “Firm Network Technology and Technology in Firm Networks”.
Congratulations Kalina!
Submit your papers for the 2024 iteration of the Adam Smith Workshop, hosted by LSE!
We will consider papers in all areas of finance - Asset Pricing, Corporate Finance, Household Finance, Intermediation, etc.
Please repost!
Call for papers:
#EEAESEM23
is a great stage to celebrate with economists who are given special recognition by the economics community during the course of year. Jan De Loecker & Kalina Manova are here to be presented with the 2023 Yrjo Jahnsson Award. Well done once again to both!
Please repost!
Kelly Shue and I are organizing an NBER training workshop for PhD students & junior scholars on the Economics of Executive Compensation on June 17-18, 2024, in Cambridge, MA.
Applications close on March 6.
#CorpGov
#EconTwitter
(1/2)
📢 Inaugural Lecture announcement!
Join UCL Prof. Kalina Manova on 17 March at 12:30pm for her talk on Global Firms: International Trade and Investment with Financial Frictions and Global Value Chains
🔴 Register now:
Delighted to see this paper in print. Only 13 (?) or so years after we started working on it.
As I always tell PhD students, whatever you do, don't work like me.
Punchline: A close CEO turnover-performance link, with an estimated 38%–55% of turnovers due to bad performance.
Super excited about this: The brilliant Kelly Shue and I are organizing a one-day NBER Research Conference on Executive Pay on December 7.
Please see the Call for Papers for details, and please submit your work by August 28th.
NBER Call for Papers: Research Conference on Compensation of Top Executives: Determinants and Consequences. Papers must be submitted by 11:59pm EST on Monday, August 28, 2023. All info
1/3 This would not pass in an introductory finance class:
"When a company purchases its own stock back, it reduces the number of publicly traded shares, boosting the value of the stock to the benefit of shareholders and corporate leadership."
The program for the 2024 Adam Smith Workshop in Asset Pricing and Corporate Finance is now available:
18 super exciting papers out of 684 submissions (an acceptance rate of only 2.6%).
The conference will be held at LSE on April 18-19, 2024.
Kelly Shue and I are organizing an NBER Conference on “Compensation of Top Executives: Determinants and Consequences” on Dec 7.
Studies using new data sources or innovative research methods are especially welcome.
Submit your work by August 28th!
#CorpGov
@ecgiorg
NBER Call for Papers: Research Conference on Compensation of Top Executives: Determinants and Consequences. Papers must be submitted by 11:59pm EST on Monday, August 28, 2023. All info
We started this project 12 (?) years ago.
Main result: A close link between CEO turnover and firm performance. We estimate that ~50% of turnovers are performance induced, i.e., would not have happened had performance been great.
All credit to the amazing Katharina Lewellen.
Having just seen the application list of one of our (excellent) PhD students, it seems that Finance jobs in the US are down even more.
Looking at the 70 or so "top-50" US Finance departments, there seem to be less than 15 tenure track job openings.
This is not good at all.
New working paper with Peter Cziraki from U Toronto:
We study new CEOs hired by large publicly-traded US firms, analyze their prior connections to the hiring firm, and explore how hiring choices are determined. (1/4)
I have very similar concerns about online seminar series.
Many well-known economists from top schools are probably happy to give an online seminar each week. But they would never be willing to travel that often.
(1/2)
I worry that in a world of online conferences, younger scholars have fewer opps to present, crowded out by everyone chasing big names.
So, should double blind reviewing be the norm when organizing online conferences?
Thread below on how to do this practically.
HT
@MortenORavn
As good a time as any to mention that Joe Biden once cited a paper I wrote with Carola Frydman in a WSJ Op-ed. Clearly a man of discerning taste.
Unfortunately behind the pay wall:
Call for papers: Adam Smith Workshop Spring 2021 (online)
All areas of finance welcome, including Asset Pricing, Behavioral Finance, Corporate Finance, Financial Intermediation, and Household Finance.
Submission deadline November 20.
A summary of "Does Board Size Matter?", a working paper with Thomas Schmid and Daniel Urban.
Short answer: Yes, it does. A law forcing German firms to have large supervisory boards appears to reduce their operating performance and equity valuations.
It is nice to see how open corporate finance has become to (for our field) non-standard research methods.
Lots of credit to John Graham and
@camharvey
for having blazed this trail.
This is truly heartbreaking.
Denis was a wonderful human being, an amazing scholar, and a role model. Incredibly generous with his time and insights to everyone, but especially PhD students and junior faculty. I am among many who benefited greatly from knowing him.
I am stunned and saddened to learn about the death of Denis Gromb. A wonderful, warm person, and an excellent economist. He has left us way too early. My sincere condolences to his friends, colleagues at
@hec
and family.
#EconTwitter
Congratulations to our new colleague Huan Tang for winning this year's AQR Top Finance Graduate Award.
Huan, who is doing extremely interesting research on financial intermediation and FinTech, is joining LSE's finance department this fall.
Simon Gervais of
@DukeU
introduces the “
#DenisGromb
Award for Outstanding Citizenship in Financial Economics” at his Memorial Day
@HECParis
“We wanted to capture what Denis was, in addition to his academic contributions, and he was helping numerous peers and PhD students”
#PhD
Summary of a recent project in which we surveyed UK directors and large investors about CEO pay.
Bottom line: We need better models of what motivates CEOs and of how they think about their compensation.
Having just seen the application list of one of our (excellent) PhD students, it seems that Finance jobs in the US are down even more.
Looking at the 70 or so "top-50" US Finance departments, there seem to be less than 15 tenure track job openings.
This is not good at all.
The LSE’s Department of Finance
@LSEfinance
has kindly produced a research showcase summarizing my recent work with
@aedmans
and
@GoslingTj
on how CEO pay is set in practice:
(1/2)
#Corporate
#governance
scholars: popular sources for 13F filings are incorrectly parsed.
Prior finding that "Big-3" don't contribute to common ownership is reversed once correct 13F info is used: Amel-Zadeh, Kasperk & Schmalz.
Free data:
I learned a lot from attending the Law & Econ seminar series at Harvard while in grad school, so I am really excited to see the launch of the London Law & Finance seminar. With a great set of speakers to start!
Very excited to launch our new London Law & Finance seminar series with
@GernerCarsten
and
@marc_mcgeemoore
!
More information on . We have a great lineup of both law and finance/econ speakers - sign up on the website if you’re interested!
@UCLLaws
@LSELaw
Starting to read job market papers. The first three papers on my pile clock in at 78 pages, 103 pages, and 83 pages. We need to teach the importance of succinctness.
New working paper:
Does increasing shareholder liability reduces bank risk and failure?
To answer this question, we compare ~4,200 state-regulated banks of similar size in neighboring U.S. states with different liability regimes during the Great Depression. (1/4)
A fantastic session with Paul Decaire, Alex Edmans, and Denis Sosyura as presenters, and David Yermack, Steve Kaplan, and Xavier Giroud as discussants.
On Friday, August 27, at 3:30pm Milan time.
This is a fantastic success and a trend that will almost certainly continue. The Review of Finance is becoming one of the top outlets for finance papers.
The Review of Finance's impact factor has risen to 3.894, from 2.885 last year and 1.906 the year before. Part of the increase is due to the IF now containing Early Access articles - without it, the IF would have risen to 3.298. 5-year IF has risen from 3.066 to 4.653.
The Economist's Bartleby discusses my recent study with
@aedmans
and
@GoslingTj
:
"... bosses care about fairness, too. ... CEOs think it is only right to be rewarded for better performance, and to be paid in line with their peers."
Very much this. I spent months designing and creating an online course () and it was extremely hard to do well.
Simply putting a few lectures online might put a generation of students off online learning.
Disagree. On line learning has been around for a long time and did not take over. There is a reason why TED talks are short. Keeping students attention on a screen for 2-3 hours is VERY hard. In person is key. Local theater is fine. Home movies, not so much.
@nandinigupta201
My impression is that, if one actually looks at recent empirical corporate finance papers published in top journals, most do not actually have an RDD/IV/shock/RCT.
So the perception that one needs (a claim of) clean causal identification to get published may be incorrect.
Congratulations to one of our fantastic Ph.D. students. Keep an eye out for Fabrizio, he will accomplish great things. Next stop: Erasmus University Rotterdam.
Six years ago on this day I had my first LSE-event. Exactly six years from that day, I today have defended my thesis and I obtained my PhD! I would like to thank, from the bottom of my heart, whoever has been, in any form, part of this journey!
Fabrizio Core, PhD
Submission deadline today (!): NBER Conference on “Compensation of Top Executives: Determinants and Consequences.”
The conference will be on December 7 in Cambridge, MA.
Studies using new data sources or innovative research methods are especially welcome.
NBER Call for Papers: Research Conference on Compensation of Top Executives: Determinants and Consequences. Papers must be submitted by 11:59pm EST on Monday, August 28, 2023. All info
This is a very good threat on something I have been thinking about. I would add that a large spike in corporate bankruptcies will overwhelm the bankruptcy system at a time when it operates with badly reduced capacity.
Shorter version: it's not a Modigliani-Miller world.
I have seen many economists saying that the right way to deal with financial distress from the COVID shock is bankruptcy, not bailouts. This thread tries to summarize my thoughts on this. Main point: there are major tradeoffs, and the optimal solution is not obvious. 1/17
"We're enthusiastic about what we do. We like it. And it's exciting. It's a great life to be able to live this way." -Robert Wilson and Paul Milgrom, winners of the 2020
#NobelPrize
in economic sciences for their path-breaking discoveries in auction theory
Submit your papers for the 2024 iteration of the Adam Smith Workshop, hosted by LSE!
We will consider papers in all areas of finance - Asset Pricing, Corporate Finance, Household Finance, Intermediation, etc.
Please repost!
Call for papers:
Nobel Laureate and
@ChicagoBooth
Professor Eugene F. Fama pays tribute to economist Michael C. Jensen, who recently passed. Fama reminds us of Jensen’s unmatched career as a researcher and founder of the Journal of Financial Economics and SSRN.
Harvard Law School Corporate Governance Blog on our working paper (with Peter Cziraki) analyzing the market for (S&P 500) CEOs.
Punchline: Firms hire from a surprisingly small pool of candidates, and the vast majority of new CEOs have close prior links to the hiring firm.
Harvard Law School Program on Corporate Governance
Over 7 years as (Managing) Editor of the Review of Finance, I had to reject 1,000 papers given our increase in standards. "Lessons From 1,000 Rejections" aims to use them constructively by distilling common reasons for rejection to guide future research.
The submission deadline for the Adam Smith Workshop in Corporate Finance & Asset Pricing is on December 13.
This iteration of the workshop promises outstanding papers and discussions in a beautiful location.
Finance PhD students are invited to submit their applications for two EFA Doctoral Events at Nova School of Business & Economics (near Lisbon) on August 21, 2019. These two events are held prior to the 46th EFA Annual Meeting (August 21-24, 2019).
Non-technical summary of our "Shareholder Liability and Bank Failure" paper on the Harvard Law School Corporate Governance Blog:
"Increasing shareholder liability can be an effective tool to reduce bank risk taking and distress."
Fun interview with Tom Gosling about our paper - what happens to firms when a CEO dies in office? These situations allow us to assess the contribution of the CEO relative to that of their successor.
We find lots of heterogeneity - some CEOs add value, others subtract it.
New ECGI Conversation:
@DirkJenter
(
@LSEnews
) discusses his recent paper “Good and Bad CEOs” co-authored Egor Matveyev (
@MITSloan
) and Lukas Roth (
@UAlbertaBiz
). The paper explores his research on the value of good and bad CEOs, based on a study of the impact of sudden CEO
Unintended effects of performance-based research funding:
More articles are published just before each research performance evaluation in the UK. They are more likely to be sent to lower-impact journals, to receive fewer citations, and to be retracted.
Conference alert - the submission deadline for the 6th Erasmus Corporate Governance Conference is coming up!
The focus is on executive compensation and on agency-related corporate governance topics.
Plus, you get to hear me keynote 🤓.
.
I had a lot of fun talking to my former colleagues Jules van Binsbergen and Jonathan Berk about CEOs of large publicly traded firms - how to become one, their importance, and why the CEO selection process is biased towards insiders.
The Review of Finance is delighted to announce the appointment of Daniel Paravisini and Chris Parsons as Editors, to start a three-year term commencing in January 2021. We thank
@amiyatosh
and Kelly Shue, whose terms come to an end in December, for their outstanding service.
The likely result is that schools all over the world will load up their seminar schedules with "famous" names.
Which implies fewer opportunities for others.
(2/2)
Congratulations to Felipe Aldunate (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile), winner of the 2020 RCFS Best Paper Award for "Deposit Insurance, Bank Risk-Taking, and Failures: Evidence from Early Twentieth-Century State Deposit Insurance Systems"
(1/2)
2/3 Share repurchases increase the stock price only if the firm does not have value-creating investment opportunities. In which case paying funds out to shareholders is better than wasting them in value-destroying investments.
3/3 What happens with the money returned to investors? It almost inevitably gets invested in another firm. Hence, repurchases (just like dividends) allow funds to be transferred from firms that do not have good investment opportunities to those that do.
✨We are delighted to announce the appointment of 56 new ECGI research members!
We now support the work of 382 research members from around the🌏sharing evidence on
#corpgov
&
#stewardship
for public benefit.
👏Please join us in welcoming them!
Know more:
In July 2022, the current JF editorial team will step down after then six years on the job. A new team lead by Antoinette Schoar (MIT) will take the reins. Some information for authors regarding this upcoming editorial transition:
We're delighted to welcome two outstanding young academics to the Faculty:
@KimFeCramer
& Linyan Zhu will join us as Assistant Professors this Autumn.
#partoflse
#thefutureoffinance
More on their research:
A very nicely done thread by my co-author
@aedmans
about our recently published paper "CEO Compensation: Evidence from the Field", which is available Open Access on the
@J_Fin_Economics
website.
Would you like to apply for the EFA Doctoral Tutorial or the EFA Doctoral Workshop?
Deadline is this Friday! All information at
#phd
#research
#finance
Tomorrow: Steve and I will discuss and contrast our research on CEO hiring and CEO pay in different types of firms.
Virtual and open to everyone. Sign up below!
The 2nd
@workshopefi
Lecture on Entrepreneurial Finance & Innovation is Monday 9/28 at 12pm ET. Arthur Korteweg (
@USCMarshall
) will present
"The Risk and Return of Private Equity"
Come join us!
Register:
Follow the series:
@florianederer
Both of my grandfathers were (unsurprisingly) on the wrong side as well. One of them was killed in France in 1944. The other one lost both eyes and a leg. He still had shrapnel in his skull and in his back when he died more than forty years later.
War is hell.
@DSchindlerEcon
@D_Langenmayr
I say yes. You are a subject-matter expert, so your assessment that R2's criticism of Y is valid and that the authors' fix is lousy are useful information for the editor.
Today is the NBER's "Compensation of Top
Executives: Determinants and Consequences" conference.
The program can found here:
The meeting will be livestreamed on the NBER's YouTube channel. Please tune in:
I just learned that Harold Mulherin has passed away, following a months-long struggle with cancer.
We only met a few times, but I was inspired every single time. A fantastic academic (who taught us a lot about M&A) and an inspirational person who lived life to the fullest.
@mioana
I was told the upcoming FIRS conference () will replace institutions on people’s nametag with their research interests. The former will hopefully combat elitism, the latter be a conversation starter.
Tomorrow (Tuesday) I will present our paper on "The Market for CEOs" (with Peter Cziraki) at the Joint Finance Seminar (U Bonn, Dortmund, Wuppertal & WHU) . 4pm CET, 3pm UK.
Lifestream for anyone interested:
1/2
@belindaarch
@nandinigupta201
Economic theories predict equilibrium relationships (aka correlations) between all kinds of variables (characteristics, choices, prices, quantities, etc.).
So testing economic theories often comes down to measuring these correlations.
Please repost!
Kelly Shue and I are organizing an NBER training workshop for PhD students & junior scholars on the Economics of Executive Compensation on June 17-18, 2024, in Cambridge, MA.
Applications close on March 6.
#CorpGov
#EconTwitter
(1/2)
I am really happy to go back to what was my home, the LSE. I will work to make
@LSEPublicPolicy
the top global Public Policy School. And I promise to do my part to reconnect the UK to Europe and beyond.
Can't wait to meet you all!
"EU immigrants are more educated, younger, more likely to be in work and less likely to claim benefits than the UK-born. About 44% have some form of higher education compared with only 23% of the UK-born."
A well deserved award for a very nice paper by LSE's Ashwini Agrawal
@ashwini_econ
, our former PhD student Zhongchen Hu (now at CUHK-Shenzen) and Isaac Hacamo
@ihacamo
.
@LSEfinance
Hillcrest Best Paper Award in Behavioral Finance:
“Information Dispersion Across Employees and Stock Returns”
Ashwini Agrawal
@ashwini_econ
Isaac Hacamo
@ihacamo
Zhongchen Hu
Sponsored by Hillcrest Asset Management
You are invited to register for the online Adam Smith Workshop, held on 21, 22, and 23 April 2021. There will be two parallel streams each day: one for Asset Pricing and one for Corporate Finance. At the end of each day, there will be a joint session.
Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown sit down with my favorite trade economist*, Kalina Manova (UCL), to talk about how corporate finance affects international trade. Self-recommending.
(*and spouse)
My very smart colleague Hongda Zhong endogenizes the optimal choice of the number of creditors with very interesting (and empirically realistic) implications.
Forthcoming soon: Zhong
@LSEfinance
shows how firms can optimally trade off the higher rollover risk and improved repayment incentives associated with dispersed creditors. Optimal dispersion varies with past performance, growth, and renegotiation frequency
Excessive focus on the division of the pie causes the entire pie to shrink: Smith & Nephew board cracks down on CEO pay, causing him to quit. Market value rose £4.6 billion under his tenure; his maximum pay opportunity was £4.6 million.
Please, someone stop this insanity. This policy will be incredibly costly in terms of lost talent and innovation. Keeping out foreign scientists & students is one of the most effective & insidious ways to run this country into the ground by starving science & innovation.
@Jabaluck
From introspection, fear of negative idiosyncratic shocks to lifetime income (e.g., serious accidents or illness), possibly combined with probability overweighting, plays an important role.
Second and third moments of the income distribution matter a lot for my utility function.
This is a well balanced article about CEO pay in the UK, with a couple of quotes from me.
One of those quotes even uses the Southpark "Underpants Gnomes" meme, which is either fun or embarrassing, depending on your tastes.