Campbell Harvey (camharvey.eth)
@camharvey
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Finance professor at Duke University, coauthor: DeFi and the Future of Finance
Joined April 2009
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My new paper takes a balanced look at crypto from an investor's perspective. Please share the link.
@DukeFuqua
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Amazon just released the Kindle version of my book with
@joey__santoro
and
@ashwinrz
. Timing is good because the hard copy is stocked out! Special thanks to
@FEhrsam
and
@VitalikButerin
for writing the Foreword and Preface.
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The Fed should terminate rate hikes - not "pause". I made my case on Squawk Box today and with more detail in this post.
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I just posted a Q&A on the current yield curve inversion (my dissertation in 1986 showed that inversions precede recessions). The track record is good. Yield curve inverted before 7 of the last 7 recessions.
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Inflation, recession and the Fed.
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My new paper shows that the rise in gold prices is highly correlated with the holdings of gold ETFs. As gold surges, it attracts the bandwagon investors. As Buffett says “As ‘bandwagon’ investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while.”
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My take on seven key risks that the economy faces:
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Honored to be named today as
#1
in LinkedIn's Top Voices (Finance & Economy) for 2020.
@DukeFuqua
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Check out my latest article: “This Time Is Different.” Yeah, right. Ignore the yield curve inversion at your own risk. via
@LinkedIn
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Most investors don't realize: 1) rebalancing is an active strategy (buy in plunging markets, sell in rising markets) and 2) this leads to bigger drawdowns in falling markets. New paper w colleagues at
@ManGroup
proposes a solution: Strategic Rebalancing.
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SSRN says their
#1
download is my paper that targets the machine learning hype in finance with
@Markowitz_Harry
and
#RobArnott
. A video discussion is now available. Thanks everyone for sharing!
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Inflation surge:
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My analysis of the current economic situation:
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@CliffordAsness
@CliffordAsness
We usually haircut backtests by 50% due to data mining. Should do the same for factors. I am not saying ALL factors are false - only more than 50%. I doubt AQR implements all 207 factors. AQR picks out the best ones for their investors. Not a big gap in our
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I target the hype surrounding machine learning applications in investment finance. My first paper with 1990 Nobel
@Markowitz_Harry
who foretold dangers of data mining decades ago and
#RobArnott
. "A Backtesting Protocol in the Era of Machine Learning".
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My research on investors being ripped off by "smart" beta products is in Bloomberg & WSJ
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The Fed's Nerf gun approach to monetary policy.
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My thoughts on the inflation release today:
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Hope to see many of you at the Duke web3 conference April 21-23. Conference website: Registration:
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Today, I gave a talk to 600 on "The Economic and Financial Implications of
#COVID19Pandemic
". My LinkedIn shows how to get the slides and the full 60 minute video (which includes Q&A).
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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We cannot afford to make the mistake of the last crisis by ignoring the needs of small and medium-sized business. See my latest LinkedIn post.
@DukeFuqua
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“You can believe in the disruption, but to have an undiversified investment in only one part of this, like bitcoin, is never a good idea.”
@jasonzweigwsj
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It is important to go beyond the headlines. Comments on today's personal consumption numbers and yesterday's GDP release.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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Check out my latest article: Is the Inverted Yield Curve Head Fake? I Don’t Think So via
@LinkedIn
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Replication:
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Excessive regulation in the crypto space drives valuable innovation offshore. See:
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My thoughts on commodities and other stuff in today's journal: or
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My remarks to the Treasury's Financial Stability Oversight Council:
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My latest paper analyzes crypto-enabled cybercrime:
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There are 30.2M small businesses that account for 49% of US employment. I am concerned that the $349B allocated for bridge financing under the CARES Act is not being deployed fast enough. There is no time for red tape.
@Duke_Fuqua
@RA_Insights
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The Dow plunged even after the Fed announced a $1.5T liquidity injection. Why? It was not enough. See my latest.
@DukeFuqua
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Shelter costs (2.6% YOY) are exerting downward pressure on CPI (5.4%). Beware of lagged effects. Case-Shiller is up 14.9% YOY.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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The IMF compared this recession to the Great Depression-but the GD dragged on for almost a decade. I prefer "Great Compression". We will have short-term economic pain but there is a biological resolution. See my Politico interview
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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To reduce the extreme level of uncertainty, policy makers need to share their model forecasts. What is their best guess of the turning point for
#COVID
? I have fit a model and will post it this week. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
@DukeFuqua
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Interviewed by
@SarahPoncze
and
@Reganonymous
on Bloomberg (produced by
@jgasspoore
). My views of gold and markets in general.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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Thursday May 7 at 10am ET, AMA with ICPM. Sign up: . 1pm ET chat show with
@modernwoman_int
founder Rosie Coxshaw. Sign up: . Theme: "The Economic Path Forward." See today's
@MarketWatch
article.
@DukeFuqua
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Here is Part I of my Bloomberg radio interview with former SEC Chairman, Arthur Levitt
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I am the YES-bitcoin side in the Wall Street Journal bitcoin debate. See
http://t.co/VnisR0Tx5x
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This article talks about my blockchain course, Innovation and Cryptoventures.
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How should we view the size of the US aid package? Is it really huge? This crisis different. GDP is 50% greater than in 2008. In 2008, it was mainly a banking crisis. This time around-almost every sector has been hit. See my latest.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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I posted three new podcasts here: . I added a video entitled “Is there light at the end of the tunnel?” that summarizes yesterday's
@DukeFuqua
livestream
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Here is a link to a video where I try to explain how the recent events have potentially accelerated the interest in decentralized finance.
#DeFi
@RA_Insights
@DukeFuqua
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The Senate just passed Round
#2
(a $484B bill that includes $310B for the PPP initiative for small business). It will be depleted quickly. The Fed's Main Street facility needs to kick in. See my LinkedIn post.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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I comment on the now 32.2M unemployed as well as two important biological developments that can move markets in my LinkedIn post (I also do mini-pods that go into more detail - again see LinkedIn)
@Duke_Fuqua
@RA_Insights
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I am doing an AMA for our 1,800+ dedicated medical faculty at Duke University tomorrow (May 14) at 12:00pm ET. It is an open Zoom webinar. You are welcome to join and ask questions. I will have brief initial remarks and then open it up.
@DukeFuqua
Join:
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While policy makers do not admit it, we are living in an MMT world – and that screams risk.
@DukeFuqua
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See my thoughts on Fed inaction and market uncertainty.
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My interview with Josh Brown on the
@ReformedBroker
was just released. It details my forecast of a recession for 2020 made in June 2019. We also talk about my current forecast that the
#COVID19
recession will be hard but short.
@RA_Insights
@DukeFuqua
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The Fed's emergency actions cutting rates to zero produced the same reaction as last time. Not helpful. We need a new playbook. See my latest on LinkedIn.
@DukeFuqua
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More on inflation:
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Operating by the 2008 "playbook" ignores the fact that this crisis is fundamentally different from the global financial crisis. See my thoughts plus a link to 2 audio Q&As I recently produced (result of all of the questions I have received).
@DukeFuqua
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I will do a LinkedIn Live "DeFi and the Future of Finance" book launch event at 12:30pm ET (September 1): There will be a brief presentation and then I will take questions. A replay will be available. The link to join:
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Interesting day. Positive vaccine news. Gold gets hammered. Value greatly outperformed growth. Today, the Wall Street Journal featured my research on understanding the value premium - nicely timed.
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Real economic growth from 2009-2019 was 25.2%. These gains are at risk if the lockdown is maintained. GDP was -4.8% in Q1 but that counts just a few weeks of the crisis. Q2 could be a brutal -30%.(annualized)
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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There were more jobs lost during the past two weeks than during the 2007-2010 recession. It will continue to look ugly over the next weeks during this Great Compression. See my latest.
@Duke_Fuqua
@RA_Insights
#GreatCompression
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Join me for a LinkedIn Live tomorrow Wednesday 12:30pmET. 1) Tuesday’s CPI print; 2) Why inflation is a major risk; and 3) My new paper that analyzes the implications of an inflation surge. Join the conversation at:
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Inflation news tomorrow. Shelter is 32.9% of CPI. Current CPI suggests shelter/housing inflation only 2.2%. Case-Shiller up 14.9%. Suggests more inflation in the future.
@RA_Insights
@DukeFuqua
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Check out my latest article: Inverted Yield Curves and Stock Returns via
@LinkedIn
. Also, connect with me to get my latest articles. I am at
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SWIFT:
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Gold prices have sharply retreated - and ETF holdings have decreased. This is consistent with my gold research.
@RA_Insights
@DukeFuqua
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The 3M jump in new unemployment claims is equivalent to the incremental claims in the first 52 weeks of the last recession - and it is not over. See my latest.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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We face a Great Compression. Unemployment will surge over the next few weeks and then when we are over the crisis unemployment will spike down. See my latest.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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@Econ_4_Everyone
This is a condensed version of my Journal of Economic Perspectives piece with David and Jonathan. A number of journals link to this checklist in their referee invite emails. I agree the culture must change.
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My comments on Goldman's crypto trading desk on PBS Nightly Business Report (go to 19 minute mark)
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I will do a
#LinkedInLive
tomorrow: “Is there light at the end of the tunnel?” I will assess the damage to the US economy, how long this downturn will last, and what it will take to bounce back. Wed. April 8 at 12:30 p.m. ET on: or
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$300B is being floated in draft legislation for small businesses. I doubt it is enough. We will see a sharp rise in unemployment. It is shocking because it will happen so quickly - in other recessions the increase happens gradually.
@DukeFuqua
See
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I just posted a video on my new paper: Gold and COVID-19. The paper can be found at . Here is the video:
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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See my latest comments on the Fed rate cut today. We haven't seen a 50bp cut since the financial crisis. I think it was a mistake. Follow me on LinkedIn for updates.
@DukeFuqua
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A positive day for equities but there is future volatility ahead - especially when we get macro news that confirms that the economy has historically plunged. I released my
#COVID19
model predictions today. See latest.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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My comments on the CPI and Fed's strategy. Next week I will post an article: "Why the Sahm Rule is Providing a False Signal and How it can be Fixed"
@RA_Insights
@DukeFuqua
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Today was the 1st sign of the dreaded liquidity trap. Investors are abandoning bonds for cash. This is a consequence of the Fed's drastic cut of interest rates to 0%. I hope we are not headed to a Japan-like situation. See my LinkedIn post.
@DukeFuqua
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I will be talking about two of my new research papers in a webinar October 8 at 11am ET: 1) Incorporating intangibles into value metrics and 2) A new approach to long-short investing. Q&A follows.
@RA_Insights
Register at
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I am doing a live session on US election results, Wed. Nov. 4, at 12:30pm ET. Join at . Broadcast will appear on this page at 12:30 (you may need to refresh your page to see it) or follow Fuqua to receive a notification when live.
@DukeFuqua
@RA_Insights
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