dave kasten
@David_Kasten
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Do what seems cool next. Formerly: McKinsey, VaccinateCA, Activision Blizzard.
Joined March 2011
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In too many conversations lately, I've heard that everyone _hopes_ we have a playbook to mitigate the risks of AI, but no one HAS one.
I’ve been helping the folks at
@ai_ctrl
work on the first draft of just such a plan for a while now.
Excited to share that it's now released!
A NARROW PATH
If attempts to build superintelligent AI succeed, we face extinction as a species.
We must choose a different path, one where we control what we create. One where AI is a tool for human advancement, not a successor species.
Humanity has no plan, so we built one.
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You know, it's odd that Slack said, "hey, <100 person IRC channels had moderators since the 1980s, but let's not tell CEOs they need one for corporations >10K" while Discord has a detailed moderator advice guide with chapter titles such as, "Section 531: Parasocial Relationships"
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@meredithdclark
@olivermb
What other crimes do you baselessly accuse students of? Tax evasion if they don’t give you a shiny red apple?
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@revhowardarson
Ummm...isn't deleting evidence of CSE without reporting literally a straight-to-jail issue?
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@JohnJBlatchford
I'd love to move back to Ohio, but I don't know how I pitch, "if you have a miscarriage or need an abortion, we can't get you care; if our kids are trans, they'll be forced back into the closet" to any potential life partner.
Do you see those things changing anytime soon?
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TIL that shipping companies are Actually At Scale using AR glasses to plan, conduct, and inspect repairs and maintenance on ships now, resulting in time savings that could best be described as "hilariously large" by comparison to previous best practices
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@jsidman
@MayorBowser
The Mayor should shut them down. Tonight. And then yank all their liquor licenses.
I plan on opposing every liquor license renewal their group applies for, because of this.
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Jaw-dropping details here: diplomatic negotiations in a public restaurant; aides pointing cell phone cameras at briefing docs
The dining room at Mar-A-Lago is the new White House situation room, and if you can pay the fee, you're invited.
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@ArmsControlWonk
Weird to think that in ~75 years we've gone from "everyone knows that big warehouse explosions make mushrooms clouds" as a cover for the Trinity test to "everyone knows that nukes make mushroom clouds" as a conspiracy theory about a warehouse explosion...
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“In your pockets you hold two notes. One says, ‘no one is working on any problem,’ the other says, ‘we are a vast and powerful civilization’”
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At this point, I’m calling for a complete pause in letting
@cstross
write his so-called “fiction” until we better understand his eldritch powers
The Sessho-seki, a famous rock in Nasu, Japan that was said to have imprisoned the evil nine-tailed fox demoness Tamamo-no-Mae, was found broken in half.
After nearly 1,000 years, the demon vixen is presumably once again on the loose.
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One of the deeply weird things about modern American life is that "I made a well-formatted letter" is a secret test that greatly affects the likelihood of getting the results you're already owed by law.
Our best features in
@swiftstudents
emerged from the focus groups.
One financial aid officer focus groups organized by
@nasfaa
produced the following features.
⭐️Student name + ID # in header
⭐️Prompt to use school email address
⭐️"Table" in childcare allowance request
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Have a conversation 3 times, tweet about it rule:
People who work on AI policy outside of the DC area cannot _imagine_ how different the conversation is in DC.
Berkeley: "AI will kill us all.."
Inside DC: "Here is our process for industry to comment on AI use cases"
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@zck
Honest question: do you believe that they should take that rooting seriously as feedback, and re-evaluate some of their past decisions?
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@SCOTUSblog
You really need to take a breath here and actually think about what this means for real human beings.
What you're doing right now is not helping.
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As a speculative exercise once, I attempted to ask (roughly) every major US public policy school whether they taught a class in procurement. Almost none of them -- and none of them anywhere near the top of the ranking tables -- had _even one elective_ on it.
That is...a choice.
These businesses are generally not very tech-forward because that is not a requirement of the RFP. In fact, anything which makes it look less like the abomination that Agency X uses makes it less likely to win Agency Y’s bid, since their requirements document was copy/pasted.
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@ahardtospell
The metro, while annoying when it breaks, is convenient to get around town even late at night
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What is extremely weird is that I had my first trans coworker in the early 2000s, in Ohio, when I was a Republican, and my reaction _then_ was, “ok, whatever.”
Why do the DC Gen X blogger pundits have such a weird phobia about this?
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This is news worth crying with joy about, and I’m absolutely unashamed that I did.
A 75% effective vaccine. Tens of thousands of kids’ lives are going to be saved every year thanks to this.
The world now has a 2nd vaccine against malaria. Incredible.
Malaria kills more than half a million people every year.
Over half of these deaths are in children younger than 5.
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@golikehellmachi
I have a friend who teaches college students in the arts. These students _literally_ do not understand the career paths of many of their mentors, because "I had to ensure I never got off healthcare for even one minute to avoid pre-existing condition rules" just doesn't compute
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(Without commenting on the underlying issue)
A shockingly large percentage of Kremlinology on statement release times boils down to, "the decision-maker finally got out of their work dinner and checked their email" or "people are on hour 25 without sleep and gotta call it"
why would you release the statement when everyone on the east coast is asleep anyway
the point of making a statement is usually for people to see it right?
and you have to drag an administrator out of bed or w/e to post this so it sure seems like some kind of crisis move
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Ah, yes, another round of the, "why are the students picked in the most Darwinian meritocracy contest in human history doing so well at school" debate
I find it *insane* that the Ivy League does crazy grade inflation and — seeing that — so many people at non-Ivies insist on grading “rigorously,” thereby re-enforcing the pre-existing opinion of employers that elite uni kids are geniuses (he’s a 4.0!) and state school kids idiots
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@pennstatetom
@jonkarl
@lisamurkowski
Wow! Such hijinks for this woman who's taking away my family's rights! Love it!
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@vghaisas
I need to find the source I saw on this again, but my understanding is that they believe they should have few moderation features since they think that’s outside their scope. Put another way, they think HR is the moderation function for email, and should be for Slack too.
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Ok, because if you have a convo at a con 3 times, you should tweet it:
The AI industry's estimate of max US govt competency is wildly too low, resulting from them not encountering the A team, mainly. (Note, I am often harshly critical of USG competency when it is lacking).
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@TezlynFigaro
This is literally a gas station famous in LA for having prices regularly $2 above any other station. I (and lots of other people downthread) knew which station it was before even looking at the photo.
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@ESYudkowsky
@mizabitha
Women couldn’t testify in court, generally, under Roman law, so no ability to press an adultery case in that instance (needed to avoid an aristocratic feud)
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@patio11
Hypo: it’s mainly not loss prevention, it’s mainly about trying to enable greater $/sqft and enabling digital cross/up sell
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I'll admit, I didn't have, "Senior Partners at the extraordinarily risk-conscious management consulting firm I used to work for now comfortably use
@ManifoldMarkets
prediction markets in their LinkedIn posts" on my 2023 bingo card, but apparently that's a thing now?
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@patio11
@moronicrepublic
Can report, “write a terse but polite letter, in the style of Patrick ‘patio11’ McKenzie,” is an effective prompt.
(“Terse” is necessary because otherwise using your name in the prompt results in an effusive and overly long letter)
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@JohnJBlatchford
Look, to each their own. But I personally wouldn’t bet my family’s future on a preliminary injunction. If it becomes a permanent injunction, and if there’s a similar one to protect trans kids…maybe. But given the current Statehouse and Governor, I’m not holding my breath.
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@packyM
@DanielleFong
Heaven willing, America gonna get one American dream stronger on Tuesday
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@nonmayorpete
So, this is a structure that basically is an effort to thread the needle between, a) scaling, b) "I need to help my current employees take money off the table or else they'll be stolen away by competitors", and c) what-if OpenAI just becomes all of the economy?
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The Crypto Wars panel at
#rsac
is a car crash — Adi Shamir is straight up defending a crypto weakening back door for phones that relies on physical vibrations to emit part of key. Yeah, that’s right. He wants keys to be emitted via sound. On devices with accelerometers and mikes.
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@patrickc
So I fully understand that I’m 3 years late to this story, but how the heck did we not have a ticker tape parade when a 90% effective therapy for cystic fibrosis that could be used in kids got approved?
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Much less is actually planned in human civilization in a crisis than you might expect.
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@NickWolfinger
Hi, I'm curious, did your tenure application include providing proof of your willingness to threaten junior colleagues? Or was that more sort of a "roles and responsibilities" thing covered in the job description?
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If you told the average US policymaker that "AI will kill us all," their default assumption is that you mean, "because a Certain Nation in Asia powers up and we fight WW3", not "we all get paperclipped".
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Reminder that if you're someone with the power to fix issues, you can almost _immediately_ find some to fix by going to the right subreddit or facebook group.
This is underappreciated, even by people who know they're underappreciating it.
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@revhowardarson
A lot of people have not sufficiently contemplated that many algos that seek min(trolley_problem) can, with a single bit-flip, instead become max(trolley_problem)
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(Or when you inadvertently learn that a key volunteer who’s operating at “would hire them for my Dayjob” levels is actually under 16, because of when they are able to get vaccinated…)
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@IanColdwater
Tell people that using unemployment and food banks is their right and that they’re not making anyone else starve by taking advantage of the resources their community offers them, and that their tax dollars last month probably helped pay for
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@StrongTowns
Hmm...has anyone tried getting a special zoning rule created for these by calling them "Founding Fathers" or "Constitutional Communities"? or something?
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They have not fully reasoned through several points, including:
1. If you live in a society with too-few truly competent general-purpose problem-solvers, the ones you have will run on 120% utilization prioritized mostly by _urgency_ not _impact_ and you will rarely meet them
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Look, I understand that it isn’t always intuitive what value prop business offers, but each of the public corporations owning these brands are legally compelled to publish detailed quarterly descriptions of how they make their money, and they’re usually surprisingly interesting
I don’t understand how the following restaurants are still in business:
- Chilis
- Applebees
- Olive Garden
- Red Lobster
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(Your default understanding of think tanks in DC should be far more, "place for burned-out high-performing people to recover and remember what their kids look like between tours of duty" than "weird para-academic institution". Same goes for, e.g., war colleges.)
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New crazy singularity just dropped: hire every unemployed liberal arts major in America to frantically churn out blogposts describing new advances as input data to ensure AI models can describe the future they create
okay so this is dumb but the insight that makes it less dumb is that language is, itself, a sparse representation of the internal human model of the world. it only works because words have a relation to each other corresponding to the relations of their referents.
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Follow/up thought on this: there are entire parts of the DC ecosystem that only make sense if uou understand that they are part of a mechanism to enable lifecycle cash smoothing for experts needed by government
To the extent that we want competent specialists and executives in government, I look at things like the pay for GS-13s and wince.
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One of the very weird things about much of American non-tech business culture (versus, e.g., much of the American federal-level public sector culture), is that _lots of managerial folks_ don't see doing what Patrick describes _as their jobs_.
Culture is a real thing in the world, and in a healthy engineering culture, someone not involved in immediate firefighting would take that engineer aside within minutes and say “You are probably worried for your job right now. Don’t be. Let me explain incident postmortems.”
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One of the persistently weird things about American business life is that people fear Legal's "No", even though average F500 GC is one of the most creative and ethical business problem-solvers you'd ever meet. (Their job requires, essentially, understanding the whole business.)
“I bet the lawyers wouldn’t let you do that.”
I bet 10,000 people think they understand what Legal will say for every person who actually asks Legal for a memo on the topic, to say nothing of how many people understand that if Legal has an objection it knows how to raise it.
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@R_McNeely
I would buy that argument more if Slack didn’t explicitly refuse to ship message management tools I have in Outlook now, like filters, spam buttons, skip my inbox, etc.
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@docentdemagogue
The google string you want to look for is "Hololens shipping industry" or "Hololens maritime maintenance"
(My original source here was a personal discussion so I'm being vague to avoid pointing at a given shipping company. But trend is widespread apparently.)
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One of the absolutely _wild_ things you learn as an adult is that people will frequently cite policies that they have literally _never_ read, and make claims that are disprovable by a single Ctrl+F
The secret to being the most powerful person in the room on policymaking: actually read the dang-flab statutes and bill text!
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4. If the defense and security establishment comes to share the view of AI risk held by, e.g., the average person at Manifest 2023 conference (thanks,
@ManifoldMarkets
), I believe we will rapidly falsify
@ESYudkowsky
's beliefs that there aren't competent USG people out there.
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@thejb_stan
Not to mention average hrs played per game has gone up _significantly_ for the average gamer...
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@Theophite
I would also like to briefly point out that the Soviet ethnolinguistic census system, while _very convenient_ for political science papers, is also LITERALLY USED AS A PUNCH LINE by poli sci for the ways in which it is inconsistent and driven by communist ideology under the hood
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@revhowardarson
One of the weirdest things about Twitter is that it’s taught me that some people literally cannot see the is/ought distinction
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@patio11
My hypothesis is that many, many people thought of it for years, but it was only implemented because it was led by senior doctors -- ORs have a strong culture of deferring to doctors' preferences, however tempermental (they're the "fighter pilots" of that culture)
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I honestly think that one of the reasons
@ManifoldMarkets
is catching on with news super-consumers is that it just looks prettier than other prediction markets in a screenshot
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@swolecialism
It has always been very unclear to me why we would want other countries to have access to people that demonstrate they have the heart of an American inside them
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"You need to learn WHY things work on a starship."-Admiral James T. Kirk
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2. Even if this was not the case, their estimates of USG competency are informed mainly by talking to people with skillsets most like theirs, which is essentially the global max of industry-outbids-government-for-talent
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@realtonysm1th
Why should we lie and say students didn’t master a body of knowledge, just because others did too?
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("Industry" is how federal government folks refer to all of capitalism. On my good days, I think it is charming anachronism; on my bad days, I think it demonstrates an unhealthy power relationship)
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I just asked chatGPT to draft me a letter to send to my councilmember opposing the appointment of a dangerously unqualified man to a role with the prompt "formal and chillingly polite letter" and it honestly crushed it to an unsettling degree. Literally edited one word and sent.
The first major use case of GPT-3 and LLMs for ordinary people will be consumer rights.
Negotiating medical bills, fixing credit reports, waiving fees, lowering bills, cancelling subscriptions and suing robocallers.
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@danegerbravo
Wouldn't surprise me -- the use cases for shipping, as I understand it, are much less spatially fine-grained
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There are reasons, detailed in the article, why this is moderately challenging for government.
Very few of them stand up to the, “a motivated product team could solve this,” test.
Instead, the government focused on awareness, instead of building a repeatable process.
Startling stats: After many US kids lost a parent during COVID, a large % of families are NOT receiving federal survivor benefits to help w/costs, including an estimated ~717,000 Black children.
Our new reporting on the Social Security program>
@CBSNews
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Counterargument: these perks will come back just like apartments have rooftop grill stations: they seem like compensation for everyone even though on a per-cap basis the expenditure is actually pretty small
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I always thought that scene at the end of science fiction shows where all the passers-by forget about the apocalypse after it was averted was a narrative convenience. Now I’m not so sure.
For more than half an hour, more than a million people thought they might be about to die—and we weren’t sure the world was about to end. *Today*, that threat is ignored. People’s ability to compartmentalize away real threats will never cease to amaze me.
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@patio11
The shibboleth here is conveying that you understand that they're treated purely as an API and get lots of malformed requests, and you want to ask the _right_ question
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@EconAndrew
What I generally hear from friends visiting:
1. They're impressed by how clean the streets are.
2. The variety of food impresses even visitors from major Euro cities.
3. They see Americans as surprisingly friendly and willing to help them with tourist questions.
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The very funny thing about having worked in management consulting is that this is, indeed, roughly true _at all times_ for at least the MBB consulting firms (I assume others as well).
So you constantly have to overindex in training and cultural messaging, or else you're done for
@asmartbear
The thing which most broke my mind about hypergrowth, the math of which I could have explained in high school but the implications of which were entirely opaque:
If you’re growing at 2X a year, half the team has less than a year of tenure.
In a year, half the team will…
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I don't know how to explain how disquieting it has been realizing THERE ARE VERY FEW ROOMS where people are working hard on this problem has been.
I realize this is petty Twitter sniping but we’re stochastically killing people this year through bad web UXes because decreasing marginal propensity for people to vaccinate through unnecessary errors causes them to forsake lifesaving medical treatment.
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@nonmayorpete
The funny part is that this instantly makes all the, “but when will regulated industries and risk averse companies use chatgpt” takes outdated.
(Hint: ask an enterprise how easy it is to turn off a feature from your domain, like Teams, that MSFT really wants you to start using)
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This article is an excellent example of how adverse selection can get nested all the way down, and what bad things result.
Demonstrates the principle
@jonrog1
articulates about all the cons in Leverage: the reality can be so bad that you wouldn’t believe it in a fictional work
Today in Bits about Money: what happens to credit card debt where it crosses the boundary between financial institutions and the debt collection industry, and how that and other structural issues cause the unsavory behavior of that industry.
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It’s extremely weird to have deep, “I trust your moral judgment implicitly” feelings about people that you not only have never met, but may not even know their full name.
We made an internal video to thank volunteer callers for and it struck me that I've never been in an org before where I had no idea what 75%+ of my coworkers looked like.
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5. Someone needs to think through, in greater detail, what the helpful things could ask for from government would be, rather than just sticks to avoid, for if and when the Eye of Sauron TRULY focuses on AI safety.
(If you think it already has, this thread didn't do its job.)
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@Captain74205
@annehelen
@geoffpilkington
Same here, my friend! I'm happy to let you know -- we both won at capitalism, and that's pretty cool. I'm pretty darn happy for all my friends today who hadn't yet won, and got some extra relief today. Isn't that cool, too?
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@igorbobic
It’s important to remember that the House had an actual bar then, and we have fragmentary evidence that they served very good cocktails compared to era standards
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One of the very sad things about aerospace and defense circles in the LA region is that all of the folks nearing retirement genuinely don't understand (and don't want to understand) how the 20somethings can't afford homes, because it was so wildly cheap there in the 1970s
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It is very, very interesting to my Midwestern heart that “polite but firm” is a very powerful instruction to give chatgpt…
@paulg
Recently my daughter’s flight was cancelled. Lufthansa announced theyd cover accom. When it came to reimbursement - no, that was a mistake, we’re not liable for weather. I asked chatGPT to explain their legal and moral obligations in a polite but firm letter. Lufthansa paid up.
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As a side observation, it's really revealing of Western culture that the main response to chatGPT is, "oh no! well-written things will be fake!" instead of "oh yes! I finally can write all the sincere thank you notes I lacked time and energy to say!"
A relevant corollary is that as it gets easier for computers to approximate the outputs people used to laboriously create, more of the human labor premium comes from being a person who other people like to work with. So if you're worried about AI, practice being nice.
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I am not trying to convince you of either Berkeley or K Street's view on this topic -- I am merely trying to convince you that if you have the Berkeley mindset, you should be talking to folks in DC 100x as much as you are
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Note that they will, e.g., require everyone to take a class in econometrics, a skillset that vanishingly few of my friends with policy degrees _ever use again_.
The average senior government employee _lives their life buried in contract and proposal management_.
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And I know what you're thinking, reader. Do we, y'know, teach kids how to do this sort of thing in school as part of civics education?
Heavens, no.
In fact, most efforts to explicitly teach students how to use their rights get intense community pushback.
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@patio11
Totally; I often begin by thinking about an experiment like this by asking, “what’s the PowerPoint page you’d make for the decision meeting?”
It would have a scale from bodega on one end to Amazon super warehouse on the other, with a Walgreens in the middle. And who knows?
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@jdcmedlock
@balajis
Wait, I don’t understand. If the swap is 1 BTC for 1M USD, can’t you just hedge it now by taking the bet, borrowing $25k or so from a bank, buying 1 BTC at spot rates now with that borrowed USD, and then delivering the BTC in 90 days? You’ll be up $975k, even if hyperinflated
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@MikeBlack114
@philewing
I personally enjoyed how SAMs capable of engaging evading F-18s somehow were incapable of shooting at a large number of cruise missiles going in a straight line
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@PhillyInquirer
@Fahrenthold
Don't order anything from Amazon in the two weeks before the election! Keep the mail free for ballots!
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It turns out to be surprisingly hard to describe the _why_ behind the philosophy of "everything needs to be tracked as a task."
You usually, honestly, don't in "peacetime." But people who do care, care fanatically because of a deeply scarring memory that happened in "wartime."
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@DavidAstinWalsh
@daveweigel
I strongly suspect that many people in blue suburbs are unaware that the state they live in has a Roe trigger law that auto-band abortion if Roe is overturned. Maybe that won’t matter! But I think voters just don’t generally know that fact and will be very surprised to learn it!
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@NickWolfinger
@SadieCreel
Dare you to put "mansplains and threatens students" on the "service" section of your CV, you hack.
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@revhowardarson
Apparently a meaningful percentage of all inquiries my public librarian friends get are suddenly hallucinated sources that do not exist
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@maustermuhle
@VinceGrayWard7
@trayonwhite
@CMBrookePinto
Extremely bad idea. You want to pay them more? Pay them more. But don’t exempt them from the duty of supporting our schools, our roads, our waterworks, our streetlights.
Saying they don’t have the duties of a resident insults them and implies their only value is their service.
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I can't emphasize the degree to which I now wish to buy all future trade paperback orders from this Fort Wayne, IN, shop
Not all heroes wear capes but sometimes the ones with capes are pretty important. (Read the whole thread.)
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DC apparently has lost $400K net to a single data scientist who bets from a poke shop.
Honestly, this sort of thing is why I love This Town
Here's a new one to me: D.C.'s sports gambling operation actually LOST MONEY in June, according to a report The Post received in a FOIA request. Like, the house lost. Remarkable
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@ESYudkowsky
Prediction: if this technology is used in law enforcement, we will 10-20 years later discover that a large number of people convicted had just seen relevant images on the media and were not actually at the crime scene at all
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