Manifold
@ManifoldMarkets
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The largest social prediction market. Trade politics, tech, & sports.
sf
Joined December 2021
traders now expect FrontierMath to be cracked before Humanity's Last Exam. probably in response to o3-mini's 32% on FrontierMath
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22 days to go until the world's most prestigious water tasting competition
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yes maybe
soon we will need another exam. .
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The Whale's made an impression on Sam. He says o3-mini will show its thinking soon. And he thinks OpenAI needs a new open source strategy. 30% we get some model weights this year.
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Odds Trump takes back the Panama Canal doubled to 37% today. Always bet against the obvious
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RT @jahooma: Manifold Markets is so good. o3-mini is coming out tomorrow. o3 is maybe coming out tomorrow
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Who are we meant to trust?? 📈📉📈. @sama just tell us already
At 7:30 mark “ o3 which comes out on Friday “ - Chris Lehane Global Policy, OpenAI. Good conversation overall from NPR.
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Traders say the crash probably wasn't caused by DEI
To be clear:. 1. I have no idea the cause of the recent tragedy and make no claims about it. It was horrific; I don't like leaning on tragedies to make points. 2. This should have been resolved years ago. It is being resolved now. That is good.
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