D. Stephen Voss
@DStephenVoss
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Kentucky-based political scientist, consultant, former journalist. Opinions expressed here are unconnected to my employer's. Retweets != endorsements.
Lexington, KY
Joined September 2012
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Pinned Tweet
You can tell bigshot Dems think the V.P. is on her way to a promotion, because they're all implying that
#KamalaHarris
continues their legacy. But they're flattering themselves. If
#HarrisWalz
picked up anybody's torch with the Joy pivot, it was Oprah's.
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I've consistently defended Claudine Gay in almost every way, so it might seem curious I keep emphasizing that for her to use my words & paragraph logic was plagiarism - a sentiment that feeds her critics. Leaving aside integrity, let me explain why in a practical way... (1/2)
ANOTHER ONE: University of Kentucky professor Stephen Voss told the New York Times that Gay's appropriation of his work was "technically plagiarism." That makes three professors who have said Gay plagiarized their work, to varying degrees of severity: Swain, Voss, and Williamson.
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Had I answered reporter questions differently, and former students had seen my response, at least 5-6 of them from the last half-decade could have furnished an email message exposing me as a liar & hypocrite. An eerily prescient snip from an email I wrote not long ago: (2/2)
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"... in most cases, the combined $978 weekly payout amounts to better pay than what many workers received before the crisis hit."
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@Tyler_A_Harper
Don't entirely disagree. But you also should consider the possibility that research declaring a "replication crisis" might number among the studies that wouldn't hold up to replication:
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@ldpk55
People trust cynicism more than idealism. I just as easily could have written: "Think about how the 5-6 students I've called to task for this would feel if they read in the newspaper that I stopped calling it plagiarism when a powerful person did it." Leads to the same outcome.
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@anneapplebaum
Too bad folks came out all guns blazing (giving the impression they were) alleging far worse. Walking it back to "well at least we can still support that they did this lesser bad thing" works when you're plea bargaining in a real court, not so much in the court of public opinion.
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@JoshuaBarkley10
@bdbrown473
Wait, noting that she's a 4th-year college senior was the premise for an argument that criminal behavior ought to be overlooked?!? Now I'm wondering: Do you propose ignoring criminal behavior for all adults through their early 20's, or only for college students?
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@jgshapiro
@realchrisrufo
I understand that's the broader debate. But I was needed to answer three questions: (1) Do I feel my work was plagiarized? Technically, yes. (2) Given my understanding of the research, was it significant? No. Didn't hurt me, didn't much help her. (3) Do I want it punished? No.
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@allyFrazer9
Not for using my paragraph, no. And that's the only part of the question for which my opinion has any bearing.
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Love or hate this guy, his political instincts are way better than those of most activists on the conservative or Republican side.
The pro-Palestine encampment strategy could prove a disaster for the Left. Here's why, and how the Right can exploit it:
Most Americans do not understand the Israel-Palestine conflict or how it relates to the United States, and, for good reason, support Israel over Hamas. The
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@allyFrazer9
If you say so. But I encountered Rufo's tweet specifically name dropping me, so I had both the right and the responsibility to talk back.
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Wow, what a foolish tweet. The
#FancyFarm
audience consists primarily of activists, with hardly a swing voter in sight. Every politician on stage was met with jeers from the other side - and they expected to be, because it's the norm.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was met with jeers from the crowd and calls to “retire” while delivering remarks in his home state.
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The Beshear coalition is meaningful, & has the potential to be durable if the Kentucky Democratic Party fields the sort of candidates who can tap into it. Replicate Beshear’s pattern of support, & Dems not only will win statewide offices, they’ll approach parity in the statehouse
Andy Beshear’s success is not a fluke
But that doesn’t mean other Democrats will replicate it. Commentary by
@DStephenVoss
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@CentreGround6
@LethalityJane
If paranoia stopped at the carbiner, I'd agree with you. (Indeed, it likely helps against a real danger, which is that kids regularly stand up in those grocery carts.) But it doesn't stop there, & kids who have the misfortune of being raised by paranoid parents suffer anxiety etc
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National political figures are accusing Kentucky of vote suppression. A bevy of Kentucky-based voices have mobilized more or less to rebut them. The defenses are mostly pretty weak, though, and after seeing the repetition, let's get a dissenting Kentucky voice on record.
#kysen
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@lxeagle17
See "Fenno's Paradox." Applies to other areas of politics and policy as well, such as Education:
"American education is going to hell in a handbasket. But I really like my children's school."
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We've got a False Dichotomy Fallacy in the debate over Biden's polling problems, with the two sides being:
(1) Dems lose if they run Biden &
(2) Crosstabs for young voters show the polls are noise, not signal.
Option (3) is polls are picking up discontent that's likely temporary
Polls are a snapshot in time, and right now they are clearly capturing young & POC voters’ frustration with Biden
And some of that is translating into support for Trump or third party candidates
If that continues into next summer, we may very well be in for a major realignment
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@JimHinkle151392
@benshapiro
I only looked closely at my parts involving me. And what I've consistently said is: It's technically plagiarism, but not intellectual-property theft of any consequence - neither a major part of my work nor a significant feature of hers - so I wouldn't punish for that.
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Compare the attention being paid to who'll next coach UK basketball with the attention being paid to the conclusion of the KY General Assembly. The state's spending $129.6 billion, but what the public cares about is the $7 mill or so that'll decide who leads a bouncey-ball team.
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Beshear's 2023
#KYgov
vote projected onto the current state House seats. If Democrats could replicate Beshear's support exactly, they'd reach parity in the House... (1/6)
Beshear and Cameron both won 50 state house districts - dems currently have 20/100 seats
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@KySportsRadio
Putting aside concerns with fairness, the coverage is ridiculously misleading - which ought to be a sobering illustration of just how untrustworthy political information has become now that audiences mostly rely on national sources.
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Hilarious seeing Kentucky-politics Twitter trying to spin this story.
"It's the low funding & hostility to public ed!"
"No, it's the poor leadership & discipline problems!"
If you've given people Tuesday off, mass absenteeism on Monday may not be a puzzle that needs explaining.
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@Tyler_A_Harper
What's the error, though? I'm guessing they're naively assuming somebody could work at that rate for 40 hours a week, 50 hours a year?
$65/hr * 40 hrs * 50 weeks = $130k 😃
$65/contact hr * 3 hrs * 15 weeks = ~$3k/course 😭
No prob ... only 43 courses per academic year! 🤣
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@timurkuran
I would add: 4) University presidents should stop weighing in on ongoing controversies, purporting to speak on behalf of entire university communities.
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@allyFrazer9
I'm in no position to answer the 2nd question. But I can 100% assure you that how I'm evaluating plagiarism is not influenced either by fear of criticizing Gay nor because of some DEI political goal I might have. With a student, too, I would issue a warning but not write a ticket
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@MJennarocity
@wil_da_beast630
The same society that ignored violinist Joshua Bell when he played in a subway station.
You're right, though: My opinion is wholly inexpert, but I listen to a lot of classical music and based on this clip, she seems talented to me!
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Pleased and proud to have started off Election Day sitting on a temple floor with my daughter Elizabeth, a first-time voter, filling out our ballots. Photographer didn't give us fair warning, so neither of us finished forming the face we might have wanted -- but I'll post anyway.
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@BeckySchewe30
I stalled out but it wasn't due to lack of info as to what I needed to do to move up the ladder. We were just woefully understaffed, & I was one of the people stuck carrying way too much water. I mention this because women often get buried in crushing service duties of that sort.
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@DecisionDeskHQ
@JoeBiden
No, he hasn't. Even if your projections are right -- they kinda need to be official -- the selection of the president occurs in the Electoral College.
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Revisionism on how Dan Quayle was treated is both hilarious & sad. I worked as journalistic intern at the 1988 GOP convention. When Quayle's selection was announced, a reporter shouted, "That idiot?!" The surrounding press corps guffawed. Quayle was treated as an idiot for years.
I see a lot of articles along these lines. “The Kamala Harris Question.” “The Challenge for Kamala Harris.” And so on. I just don’t remember similar articles about other VPs. “The Dan Quayle Question.” “The Challenge for VP Biden.” Vice Presidents are there to support the
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@ArmandDoma
@NateBlanchett
Sharing personal space has become increasingly intolerable to a large swath of Americans. It's amazing to me the lengths people will go to avoid having to make the sort of compromises necessary to do that. Maybe shrinking family sizes & growing home sizes help explain that.
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"Dr. Voss, I am so sorry, but I got carried away enjoying the weather & have not completed the Canvas homework yet. Is there any way I could complete it later today?"
I have a fearsome reputation. But with that request? I extended everybody's deadline until midnight.
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@kerpen
No, her edit changed the diagnostic discussion to fit her data rather than ours. I provided a much more in-depth explanation at someone's request, if you'd like to understand more. It starts here:
@DStephenVoss
@StewMama71
@aaronsibarium
@realchrisrufo
Out of curiosity, I would be interested in seeing a simplified explanation of what each version is claiming.
It is very confusing to me how it is even possible for both versions to be internally consistent? I am not sure I can fully grok the core point of either as a result.
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@oneunderscore__
@Taintnothingbu1
@MStone_NOLA
@FiveThirtyEight
When you hear 40% chance of rain, do you leave your umbrella home?
If you insist on converting a 60% probability into a declaration something will happen, how's this? The 538 forecast indicated a 60% chance the Senate would fall between 49-52 GOP seats. They were right. It will.
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@Tyler_A_Harper
By talking about the defense of campus property as though it's the same as breaking up public protests, liberals are blowing their ammo too soon (as they've done against Trump repeatedly). Such complaints will have lost credibility by the time the real thing starts happening.
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@wil_da_beast630
We don't realize what a large share of U.S. society effectively does nothing (except create work for others) because the individuals who fill those institutional slots usually go through lots of jargon-filled training and may work quite hard at their completely unnecessary posts.
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@ijbailey
@CathyYoung63
"Bias Response Teams are a Bad Idea" from the Chronicle of Higher Education.
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Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear somehow holding his own even among 2020 election deniers. 🤣
Worth pointing out: when asked to answer whether they thought Biden "stole" the 2020 presidential election or if he won "fair and square," poll respondents sided with "stolen" 47 to 36.
~17% were undecided.
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@wil_da_beast630
Age of adulthood shifts depending on whether elites like what young people want to do.
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I found myself surrounded by an electronic lynch mob calling for Claudine Gay’s head — with the most vocal participants furious at me for supporting her.
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@oliviakrauth
Beshear is doing better almost everywhere compared to what he needed to do in those places to break even. Cameron's path to victory, while mathematically not closed yet, would require increasingly extreme deviations from past voting patterns.
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You know that public-school teacher shortage? The low pay is only one reason for it.
Tragedy at Henry Clay High School: Student dies after breaking up on-campus bathroom fight
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Of the interviews I've given about the Harvard
#Plagiarism
scandal, this Q&A with The
@NewYorker
most worried me because it involved questions beyond my pay grade. But
@emmaogreen
figured out a way to work with my cautious & occasionally flabby answers.
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@SherylPoll
@BresPolitico
We can walk and chew gum at the same time. Unless Congressional chambers are being invaded, that is.
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@StewMama71
@aaronsibarium
@realchrisrufo
If she hadn't switched those words, our paragraph would have made no sense for her research.
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Retrospective voting is maybe the closest we get to a truism in the study of voting behavior (unless you count Duverger's Law). But people who should know better act as though it's a top-down media effect. Coverage does shape economic perceptions, but no, it's not all about spin.
Yeah, in general, the notion that the media is responsible for the focus on inflation is one of the most insane talking points I see from upset Dems. People don't need a push from TV to notice when bread and gas are more expensive, and they always blame whoever's in charge.
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OK, so this Beshear ad is false by any reasonable interpretation. That's not even interesting. What's interesting is the followup question: Why would Beshear's people run an ad that'll fail the smell test for anyone who knows the true story? (1/2)
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The
#KYgov
outcome is being turned into a Trump vs. Desantis clash after the fact. Must every state & local political event be given one of these epic storylines? I'd be surprised if more than 2% of the Kentucky electorate even learned about that Desantis endorsement.
Attorney General Daniel Cameron ran away with the Republican primary for governor in Kentucky last night, carried by his numbers around Louisville. DeSantis-endorsed businesswoman Kelly Craft finished a disappointing third behind Agriculture Commisioner Ryan Quarles.
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@stone_prof
The academic version of getting carded when you order a drink. I miss those days!
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@MariZimbon
@jgshapiro
@realchrisrufo
Or try this one: (1) Was it speeding? Yes. (2) Was it serious? No, the driver was clocked doing 57 mph on a 55 mph highway. (3) Do we want people being ticketed for that level of offense? I don't...
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Thanks to the talented
@KYLantern
team for joining me this afternoon on
@WVLK
:
@JamieLucke
@liamniemeyer
@mckennahorsley
@ladd_sarah
If you'd like to sign up for daily alerts from Kentucky's
@statesnewsroom
affiliate to follow their work, do so here:
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@JoshHochschild
@joguldi
Nothing makes me want to turn on Claudine Gay more than people like this one. I wrote that paragraph. It wasn't a great paragraph, and were it not for the parenthetical part, I might not have recognized it as my creation. Still, calling it a standardized locution is pure insult.
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@oliviakrauth
I can say a dozen things disagreeable to the GOP & at most I get a polite rebuttal like Southard's. If I say one thing Dems don't like, it'll get circulated with a comment along the lines of: "Told you this guy is against us." (2/2)
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Usually I use my Twitter account for departmental publicity & to share news/commentary, not for family-related posts, but I'll make an exception with this bit of
@UKYbiology
publicity. Proud of my daughter for hitting the ground running with Dr. Cooper!
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I'll be in the WTVQ
@ABC36News
studio delivering election commentary with
@TresWatson
most of this evening, but they really don't need me because my former T.A.
@SherelleRoberts
(that's her in the striped dress on the poster) has been doing a great job for them this afternoon.
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"...nearly half of master’s degree programs have no ROI, thanks to their high costs and often-modest earnings benefits. Even the MBA, one of America’s most popular master’s degrees, frequently has a low or negative payoff."
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@theyoungjoo
But who's being scammed? Often it's universities (funded by taxpayers or by grants that originated with non-academics) paying so that their faculty members can take an extra trip or two each year, to hang out with people like themselves & possibly network their way to a new job.
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I've seen this map maybe a dozen times today. But it just dawned on me that I should ignore the existing red routes & focus on the other colors. That's when I realized they all involved political battlegrounds: North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, & Ohio.
Today was a historic day for passenger rail investment, more is set to come, but here's a map of today's announcements.
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UK A&S Dean Brady just announced that Chemistry Prof. Susan Odom suffered an accident this weekend that took her life. It's a tragic loss for UK, one that saddens my family greatly because she was a kind friend, and a supportive mentor for both of my daughters.
With a heavy heart we are saddened to report that Dr. Susan Odom (
@ItsSusanOdom
) died unexpectedly over the weekend. Susan was a great friend, excellent colleague and collaborator, and an integral part of our family...and of those whose lives she touched. 1/
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@Tyler_A_Harper
A huge part of me becoming a centrist in college, after previously thinking of myself as a leftist, was realizing that most of those college-educated mediocrities were left-leaning and that they'd be the ones deciding how to use government to redistribute other people's earnings.
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Interesting. At least the Boomers have been consistent!
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On the hostility being directed toward American Jews: "When you’re part of a mob besieging a campus talk, shattering windows and trying to break down the door — when you reach the point of throttling schoolmates ... — It’s become about indulging hatreds."
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@wil_da_beast630
"Selfish urbanites are invariably the most miserable folX"
They're clearly miserable. But you gotta hand it to them: They've done a pretty good job making other people miserable, too.
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@mikenyland
@mjs_DC
Right. Judicial retirements tend to come in waves, because liberal/conservative judges will try to delay retirement while the wrong party holds power.
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Pessimist though I am, I'm starting to wonder if responsible left-leaning people and responsible right-leaning people are converging on a mutual awareness of how thoroughly cultural education (i.e., Social Studies & English) has failed in the United States.
Over the past 24 hours, thousands of TikToks (at least) have been posted where people share how they just read Bin Laden’s infamous "Letter to America," in which he explained why he attacked the United States.
The TikToks are from people of all ages, races, ethnicities, and
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@danushman
@jgshapiro
@realchrisrufo
Flip that around. Suppose you're right about how terrible she is & eventually you get her removed. Do you want the Wikipedia entry to say, "Gay weathered controversies over X, Y, & Z, but she was brought down because she used one crap paragraph from a guy no one had heard of"?
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Keeps getting weirder. At this rate, more people will have looked at my unpublished conference paper than have looked at anything of mine that went through peer review - & the most-read paragraph I've ever written is rubbish. I write better paragraphs in the average email note.
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@frednofriends
@NateSilver538
Except they really don't both think they won, as should have been painfully apparent from the full-court press by Democrats afterward to engage in damage control (not to mention the many left-leaning commentators reassuring their followers that debates usually don't matter much).
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Young adults frequently express skepticism about
#StrangerThings
because kids have so much freedom.
#HelicopterParenting
seems natural; they cannot believe
#80s
parenting differed that much from today's. Here's
@FreeRangeKids
on the show's family model:
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"Voss, now an associate professor at the University of Kentucky, said he was unbothered by her use of his words because it was a technical description of a quantitative method, the scope of the description was 'fairly limited'...
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My first guest on
@WVLK
590 AM , coming on in about 20 minutes, will be
@JamieLucke
, a veteran journalist who just three weeks ago launched a new
@statesnewsroom
affiliate called the
@KYLantern
... we'll be talking about the news environment her publication has entered.
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@KYSecState
: "People skip the midterm elections ... They've got it backwards. Who your mayor is, who your county judge-executive is ... matters way more to your daily life ... than who the president is."
Your vote is also more likely to matter.
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So much dough going toward one
#KYgov
race. That's maybe $22 per potential voter & ~$58 for each actual voter? To shape a contest that may not have budged from start to finish. Imagine if state parties had just a slice of that money to recruit & run top-shelf assembly candidates.
#KYPol
: Kentucky's Governor general election is 2023's most expensive election with nearly $77M spent, a 220% increase over 2019's gubernatorial general.
2019 spending:
🔴$13.4M
🔵$10.5M
2023 spending:
🔵$47.8M
🔴$29.1M
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@Tyler_A_Harper
OK, but isn't the interesting question whether it's an individualistic indulgence advancing that cultural stream or a fledgling collectivist institution developing to survive that stream (a neo-extended family)? What's the other stable way to build beyond a household of 2 adults?
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Next up on
@WVLK
590 AM (
@LarryGloverLive
) in about 20 minutes: Data analyst &
#ElectionTwitter
mainstay Chris Kirkwood, more commonly known as
@BlueArrowMaps
for producing maps like this one. We'll talk Kentucky elections, & especially the puzzle of Northern Kentucky politics.
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@ImmigrantDude
@wikileaks
Difference between satire and farce. Maybe it's a real analysis, and so not farce, but still satirically funny -- because it does little to narrow down the list of suspects?
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Last but certainly not least among the
@KYLantern
reporting team that I'm introducing is
@ladd_sarah
, who had already made a name for herself as a
@KyKernel
editor & Courier-Journal reporter before starting her new gig. Sarah comes on in about 20 minutes on
@WVLK
.
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@aaronsibarium
Judging from the replies,
@aaronsibarium
, we should have been clearer about the reason for the increase/decrease switch - because people are reading more into it than they should. That word switches because our data had the opposite pattern from hers.
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Now the question becomes: Did Democrats screw up by helping vacate McCarthy & nix Scalise, thereby shifting power in Congress rightward? Or is this another case of Democrats gladly empowering the hard right, gambling that doing so will deliver electoral victories a year later?
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When I taught presidential elections in 2016, Trump ran.
When I taught legislative process, Congress changed hands.
When I taught civil liberties, Roe v. Wade was overturned.
I should have warned everybody I was teaching Social & Political Movements this Fall.
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When dust settles on this plagiarism scandal, discourse may turn to the question why media orgs - including left-leaning ones - turned on CG. Judging from my experience as interviewee, one cause (likely to be overlooked) is that reporters receive strict anti-plagiarism training.
“There is no way around the reality that the person responsible for Claudine Gay’s predicament is Claudine Gay,”
@RadioFreeTom
writes in the Atlantic Daily:
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@TheSpaceGal
@MaxwellMorley
"Abortion is bad."
As a convenience, I'm in Kentucky, and here's how you can donate:
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On
@WVLK
I'm currently introducing listeners to the inaugural team of reporters staffing the
@KYLantern
... First up in about 20 is
@liamniemeyer
, a journalist covering politics & policy. We'll discuss his current reporting but also his experience with Western Kentucky tornadoes!
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@JamesGDAngelo
@cafreiman
Did you see the top half of the graph, or only the bottom? If Republicans didn't like research, I doubt they'd be holding their own in the STEM fields.
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Claudine Gay's scholarly record was probed at a level of depth that almost no one in academia faces. If the only scholars held to tough standards are those who step on toes outside academia, the result is going to be an overly safe academic community.
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@mattyglesias
@HistoryBoomer
But it also makes sense if you think of it as, "Having grown up affluent, I'm too narcissistic to deal with that hassle."
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The article's first example: "The University of Kentucky upgraded its campus to the tune of $805,000 a day for more than a decade. Its freshmen, who come from one of America’s poorest states, paid an average $18,693 to attend in 2021-22."
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"I'm being restricted from a lot of things right now that I didn't expect to be for standing up for something that I believe in."
Now the tough question: Where did she learn this expectation that playing a "political beliefs" card would trump the consequences of rule breaking?
WATCH: We spoke with ASU senior Breanna Brocker outside the courthouse, who said she will not be able to graduate because the suspension will cause her to miss her final exam
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I left journalism for multiple reasons, but one was the impossibility of balancing the need to inform the public (i.e., spread truth) against the desire not to create porn for the ill-intentioned (i.e., invade privacy). But I admire how Israel has tried to thread that needle.
Israeli government invites Kentucky lawmakers to private viewing of Hamas attack footage.
By
@liamniemeyer
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@tomgara
The horrifying possibility we'd face a life of choosing between Pepsi and New Coke left me with a loyalty to RC Cola that has persisted for decades, despite the appearance of Coke Classic.
It's cool that New Coke is available for historical purposes, though.
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My forthcoming
@KYLantern
column criticizes the attempt to discard Kentucky's modest no-excuse early/absentee voting. But that topic only won out after a coin toss, because shifting statewide elections to a presidential year strikes me as a pretty bad idea as well.
Personally, I’m in favor of moving all governor elections to the even midterm years.
Strikes a good balance between having decent turnout for the election, and not getting your race, and election coverage at large, getting totally dominated by the presidential race.
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@SeanTrende
Not sure you can separate the decline in social capital from the materially better conditions. Perhaps they don't know themselves, but what people do when they gain affluence or financial independence is start shedding the entanglements & encumbrances we call social connectedness
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All this talk about college students having been taught antisemitism exaggerates how much influence faculty members have & minimizes how much of this work is done before college.
To me, the key word here is not "teach" but "hate." Given social permission to hate, people grab it.
Why is antisemitism so common at universities, but not at other American institutions?
If you teach students academic theories that encourage them to hate groups and countries, you get students who can quickly learn to hate groups and countries.
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To succeed, protests need to attract sympathy. From somebody. Anybody.
Pro-Hamas activists storm a commencement ceremony for students at the University of Michigan. Parents and guests of the students shout “Get out!” as the activists disrupt the ceremony and block their view of the stage.
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@DrJSchramm
Yes, my assumption is that if you end a message to me with your first name, then that's what you're telling me to call you.
The tough case for me is if they don't sign at all (or only put an initial) because they have a pre-prepared ending that gets attached to all messages.
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@RickyReports
@LEX18News
Ricky, I've been hoping someone would interview a law prof or two to assess the likelihood of this legislation surviving a constitutional challenge. Having read the precedents, I doubt it would pass the scrutiny required, but I'm not a lawyer.
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