ColdmanSax
@ColdmanSax
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Commodities and emerging / submerging markets specialist. ‘My formula for success is rise early, work late, and strike oil.' - J. Paul Getty and ME
Joined May 2021
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Here is a top 10 list of my own lessons learned from my career thus far...
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I’ve been promising to post some investment ideas, and here you go. FYI, I might hold none/some/all of these, and I might be buying/selling at any time. Some to really DO YOUR WORK ON and some to just keep on the watchlist.
In no particular order…
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If you are meeting with a junior miner, and the CEO spends more time talking about the bull case for the underlying commodity, then you probably shouldn’t invest in the company. MOST gold juniors (and even developers!) are guilty of this. A call option instead of a business.
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I’ve done A LOT of FUNDAMENTAL AND QUANT research on what makes ANY commodity REALLY MOVE over my career. EXCLUDING external shock events - the BIGGEST common catalyst is when INVENTORIES (or StU for ags) approach zero. Best current example is the TIN market. OIL coming soon.
These days, this chart is THE BEST. The global oil inventory draw down continues in a straight line DOWN. Once we break the bottom line of Dec 2019 (this cannot be stopped easily), the oil price and oil equities will spike. Soon!
#OOTT
(Organization of Oil-Trading Tweeters)
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A few high-level COMMODITY VIEWS as we step into 2023... OIL: North American shale was the BIGGEST beneficiary of ZIRP and resultant capital misallocation, while ESG has gutted the exploration project pipeline, as well as restricted access to capital.
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Last week, I had the GREAT PLEASURE of meeting
@YellowLabLife
in person at the BMO MINING CONFERENCE in SUNNY SOUTH FLORIDA. The KOALA KNOWS HIS STUFF!
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KING COPPER is the ‘connective tissue’ for ELECTRIFICATION. Doesn’t matter which battery chemistry or application - COPPER is needed. $FIL.TO $JOSE.TO
Submarine cable for an offshore wind turbine, 50kg/m of copper needed (Joey Keasberry)
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Your daily reminder that we STILL HAVE NOT YET REACHED PEAK COAL, despite what many ESG 'investors' would like to believe...
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In my view, NOBODY selling COAL will want to hedge when the PRICE IS RISIMG and EU’s BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL just came into effect. COAL MINERS have been getting their heads kicked in for a LONG TIME, so they want to ENJOY THE UPSIDE…
…and obvi given where $WHC.AC $TGA.LN $NHC.AX trade etc it would near double the stocks overnight.
Is it just not actionable or do these managers all think coal is just going higher forever?
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@Toronto242M
@jenstilmanydots
Because I don't invest in charts. I invest in fundamentals. For my copper investments, sideways is just fine. When the market turns - and it will - the real fireworks happen. Making equity investments that depend on commodity upside doesn't work across the cycles.
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THIS is why I talk about Russian exports of ENERGY. It’s NOT JUST OIL, NAT GAS, COAL, or URANIUM. IT’S ALL OF THEM TOGETHER that presents the REAL RISK. And NOT JUST the commodities produced WITHIN Russia’s borders, but also those produced within PUTIN’S sphere of influence…
Things I learned from the $KAP call that we didn't already know.
1) Kaz is in the Nur-Sultan time zone.
2) Integration between KAP and Russia should terrify western fuel buyers.
3) They may have disappeared their COO (wtf?)
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3) Study successful mgmt teams and strategies. Winners tend to keep winning and losers tend to keep losing. There is a difference between company-builders and corporate grifters, and the more you study both, the more you will recognize the difference. Don’t just buy the story.
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$BHP is either going to win the bidding war for $NOT.V or they will buy another NICKEL project. SAME for Wyloo. Good reason to own a BASKET of NICKEL SULPHIDE projects US/Canada/Australia, as this is a FOCUS AREA OF M&A for the big miners...
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EXCELLENT thread on the OIL BULL MARKET. Lots of debate of $100 OIL by the CLOWNS in media. The debate SHOULD be about $300 OIL.
On buying the oil dip. While many are calling for the end of the oil and gas bull market, or attempting to time the market, we embrace this volatility and continue to buy discounted shares. A thread 🧵
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OIL BULL MARKET…
Crude price vs US rig count. If these prices are not incentivizing them to produce, Biden surely will now
H/T
@SoberLook
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MAKE MINING GREAT AGAIN. 'A natural gas power plant with 1mW of capacity takes about 1,000 kg of minerals to build...1mW of solar requires 7,000 kg...while offshore wild uses more than 15,000 kg'...
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$NGEX.V is putting out some African Copperbelt-type
#copper
grades in the Andes!
NGEX DRILLS 62M AT 6.98% COPPER EQUIVALENT AND 63M AT 5.84% COPPER EQUIVALENT AT LUNAHUASI
More here:
$NGEX.V
#NoGutsNoGlory
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I PROBABLY agree with this about $TLO.TO. There have NOT been ANY other NICKEL explorers (sulphide OR laterite) with as exciting a project. For one, it tells me NICKEL PRICES ARE GOING MUCH HIGHER if these other projects are the best the industry can find. This is a market
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"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler
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Not quite accurate, and RIGHT NOW, there is a GROWING LIST of African (and S American) countries who are INCREASINGLY LOOKING WEST for investment and support after dealing with Chinese for the past cycle. HUGE OPPORTUNITY right now, and I’M ALL OVER IT…
Chinese r in every country in Africa bagging up any material with assay able Li besides spodumene if it can b found (lepidolite & petalite) Cant disclose how I know but not hearsay. Lots of experience in China/Africa mining & dont pretend I know whats going on in China.
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'STILL UNLOVED'?! MINING IS HATED BY MOST, despite being THE MOST IMPORTANT INDUSTRY when it comes to ENERGY. UNTIL THIS MINDSET CHANGES, the BULL MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...
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INCREDIBLE SILVER intersect at $FIL.TO. The DISTRICT IS GROWING…
Filo Mining reports 64m at 1,214 g/t silver at Filo del Sol, the best intersection of high-grade silver on the project to date!
Read the News Release:
$FIL.TO
#FILyourboots
#ImpossibleToIgnore
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Well, some of us are LASER FOCUSED on it actually…
Raw materials will be the constraint on growth this decade and no one is focused on it.
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KING COAL has been ‘peaking next year’ for many years. Don’t hold your breath…
Coal Use Seen Peaking Next Year as India, China Determine Future
Global demand will continue beyond 2050,
@BloombergNEF
says
Rising output led to growing stockpiles, especially in China
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I would STEER CLEAR of $PBR. Sure, it benefits from EM INFLOWS (big in the indices), and you get some OIL BETA, but the REALIZED OIL PRICE is based on LOCAL FUEL PRICES, which will - ONCE AGAIN - be reduced below int’l markets to stave off LOCAL INFLATION…
A bunch of my fave Twitterers decided to jump into 🇧🇷 Oil...
@contrarian8888
@agnostoxxx
@Seawolfcap
@judahrhodie
@mfwarder
@YellowLabLife
@calvinfroedge
@JamesHMackay
@_Vd718
@JBLcapital
The last time I put together a Team, it started like this...
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Lula has an ALLY as the NEW CEO of $PBR, and they’re ALREADY talking about DE-LINKING local FUEL PRICES FROM INT’L PRICES (no surprise) and SHIFTING FOCUS FROM DEEPWATER E&P to RENEWABLES (aka, LOWER MARGINS), and now talking about EXPANDING REFINERIES. DIVIDEND WILL BE CUT…
⚠️ BRAZIL'S PETROBRAS WILL PLAY LEADING ROLE TO EXPAND REFINERIES, SAYS NEW ENERGY MINISTER
- Full story via Reuters at
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EXCELLENT overview of the BULL CASE for TIN, written by one of the OG TINBARONS…
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GREAT read I stumbled across that discusses some FASCINATING aspects of Eastern European GEOPOLITICS. Time to educate yourselves on the SUWALKI GAP…
War/Where: The Suwalki Gap (Part 2), by
@DrPippaM
It's not only Ukraine that is in play.
@RUSI_org
@USNavy
@USNavyEurope
@RMASandhurst
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OIL may be OVER $100 before next summer…
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NO SURPRISE that $AFM.V DROPPED THE SALE PROCESS. EASILY one of the BEST MINING ASSETS ON EARTH, but ALSO ONE OF THE WORST JURISDICTIONS ON EARTH in Northern Kivu. GOOD LUCK to you TINBARONS who own this...
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This is the GENIUS of IVAN THE GREAT. $GLEN.L bought the rest of CERREJON COAL (66%) for about $588 million, BUT $GLEN.L takes over CASH FLOW from the mine in 2021. SMART AGREEMENT, as they may end up GETTING PAID TO TAKE THE ASSET...
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SKILLED LABOR (not capital or geologic resources) is going to be the biggest bottleneck of all from exploration --> development --> mining --> processing of all these battery raw materials that end users anticipate needing.
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I have no doubt that $FIL.V will outperform $SLS.TO (and likely ALL other
#COPPER
developers) as time progresses. It was only this February when $FIL.V had a mkt cap of ~$200mm. Big move in a few months. Let it consolidate a bit before it RIPS higher. Buckle up.
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I am also IN AWE of this market. Depending on the day, ANXIOUS OR EXCITED about the cycle. Jeff Currie NAILS IT when he says 'this is a MOLECULE CRISIS.' The RISING PRICES AND SCARCITY OF ENERGY is a problem for EVERYONE EVENTUALLY...
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$LUN.TO , $FIL.TO , and $NGEX.V will make this happen, and it won’t be the first time the Lundins are successful in Argentina, after Alumbrera and Veladero…
@stocktalkweekly
Argentina has the potential for a five-fold increase in
#mining
exports in the next decade
#lithium
has the biggest potential to fuel the increase
Fernanda Ávila and several other politicians have assured the
#mining
community that nationalisation will not be the chosen path.
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$THX.V is one to do your work on. Excellent management team proving themselves in a challenging (even for locals!), but prolific jurisdiction - with district-scale potential. The gold comes cheap and the lithium potential comes for free…
Why Thor Exploration $thx.v koala?
Existing gold producer in Nigeria, NAV of reserves their basically cover 70-80% enterprise value
Cool 2nd gold project in Senegal but w/e
The Nigerian lithium opportunity is not appreciated by the existing investors that look at the name
1/n
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#COPPER
$FIL.TO + $NGEX.V – Best mgmt team with a proven track record. Unlocking a district-scale opportunity that might just be bigger than Escondida.
$IE – Top mgmt team with excellent assets in the US, good optionality of future US govt support.
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Well… I like $FIL.TO and $NGEX.V because the Vicuña is a proven - and still growing - district run by one of the most successful and value-creating mining dynasties in modern history. You find opportunities like this once in a generation.
Which average grade do you prefer? 😏
Also, ask yourself why you are investing in Co's like Filo. 🤔
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This is the REALITY of global ENERGY markets. Most ESG ‘investors’ DO NOT recognize the fact that a LARGE number of people in EMERGING MARKETS DO NOT have regular access to ELECTRICITY at all…
Regarding long term
#oil
market outlook:
- Electric vehicles are rich countries' phenomenon.
- Only rich people in the poor countries might get them as a symbol status or to make a statement & only in big cities.
#ElectricVehicle
#Nigeria
#Africa
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I'm not usually one to watch intraday charts, but the price action in $FM.TO after some proper BAD NEWS looks like a good entry level to test here for a long-term position. Scarce
#copper
asset portfolio and they probably should never have bought Inmet for Cobre Panama anyways.
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I'd HIGHLY RECOMMEND 'The Powerhouse' by
@stevelevine
. This a space I'm DEEPLY INVOLVED in, but still managed to learn A LOT in this book - especially regarding the HISTORICAL CONTEXT that brings us to where we are today. Amazing how MANY of these PIVOTAL technologies were
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2) Learn to make decisive decisions on your own with limited information. You are putting together a puzzle, often without knowing what the final picture will be, and usually without all the pieces.
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I hope $TECK does a SPIN-OFF of these MET COAL ASSETS. That would be worth doing work on...
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5) Use, but don't rely on sell-side research. Their job is different from ours. They sell (directly or indirectly) research, but almost never without conflicted interests/biases. 95% of the time, if a sell-side analyst could pick stocks, they would be on the buy side.
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END OF AN ERA at $PMET with JC Evansen stepping down, a friend of mine and someone I REALLY respect professionally. He definitely raised the profile of the company, and at the RIGHT TIME. The FAST AND EASY MONEY has probably already been made with this one…
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CORRECT. As I have said before, if utilities DO NOT step in, and Sprott + friends/allies are the only ones holding up the physical U market, then the URANIUM sector risks a nasty round trip and dip lower as physical drops. This is NOTHING NEW - seen in other markets.
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PUNISHING THE SUPPLIERS (excess tax on oil & gas producers) while INCENTIVIZING DEMAND (with these ‘anti-inflation’ spending packages) IS GOING TO END IN FAILURE…
French President Emmanuel Macron says he backs a European Union-wide windfall tax on the profits of energy companies
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More good evidence that we are NOT in an ENERGY TRANSITION, but an ENERGY ADDITION scenario…
Interesting note from Morgan Stanley looking at why in Norway, where electric vehicles made 64% of new car sales,
#oil
consumption hasn't declined:
- Cars are only 20-25% of oil demand
- Fleet turnover is slow
- Diesel truck/van sales have grown
#OOTT
#carbon
#ElectricVehicles
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There has been A LOT of analysis and discussion over the COORDINATED EMERGENCY OIL RELEASE, but there is only ONE THING that really matters - the MARKET REACTION. OIL prices RALLIED ~5% after the announcement of the release. That would be like the NYSE (or MSCI World Index)
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With $RIO taking out $TRQ and this, it's clear and obvious that MINING MAJORS WANT MORE COPPER EXPOSURE. Good time to refresh work on ALL COPPER DEVELOPERS + INDEPENDENT MINERS...
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Now, automakers and battery manufacturers will feel the PRESSURE TO VERTICALLY INTEGRATE. The only way to really HEDGE and ENSURE SUPPLY...
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Generally true, but in a RISING RIG MARKET, you don’t always want to own the best balance sheet. $RIG should have much more torque…
Everyone is always bugging me about $RIG so I found a peer comparison…then I bought $VAL which is bigger and has less debt. Better late than never…revenues only growing higher. $DO $BORR $NE
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It’s actually called ENERGY INFLATION, and is a direct result of CUTTING INVESTMENT in PRODUCING ENERGY ASSETS to instead DUMP capital into R&D and LOW MARGIN projects that DO NOT CREATE NET ENERGY…
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A few people I'd like to personally thank for this ENERGY COMPLEX BULL MARKET...
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7) Understand macro AND micro. Geopolitics and commodity prices can be just as much a driver as company-specific fundamentals, but by the same token, geopolitics and commodity prices should not be the reason you invest and should not be your entire upside/downside thesis.
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#GOLD
$KNT.TO – Enormous resource that will likely result in multiple additional discoveries, including copper
$THX.V – Great mgmt team in a new mining jurisdiction and steady production growth; free lithium optionality
$PDI.AX – Big resource that has upside; likely an M&A target
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BIG WEEK FOR ARGENTINA! $PAAS $1B+ Navidad SILVER project looks to FINALLY make progress. $LUN.TO plans to acquire $JOSE.TO for ~$500MM for their WORLD-CLASS COPPER/GOLD project. AND $RIO acquires the Rincon LITHIUM brine project for ~$800MM from Sentient PE.
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FOOD price INFLATION is not going to be transitory with the other input cost pressures building. FERTILIZERS are either MINED or they are manufactured with PETROCHEMICALS, so they are also linked to the ENERGY COMPLEX...
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Call it VERTICAL INTEGRATION or HEDGING, these OEMs are racing towards OWNING THE MINES THEMSELVES at a quickening pace. Nobody wants to be left out in the cold without supplies…
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Most people don’t know that the BEST geologists are born RIGHT FROM THE EARTH, already with a PhD…
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Let's welcome NICKEL and ZINC to the CRITICAL MINERALS list - long overdue, especially for NICKEL! Interesting that HELIUM, RHENIUM, STRONTIUM, and POTASH were DROPPED from the list...
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There are DEFINITELY some Europeans that are HOPING AND PRAYING for COAL in their stockings this Christmas season…
European power prices hit new record highs amid nuclear outages and pricey gas rates
🇩🇪 German power for next year jumped to a high of 335 euros/MWh, following a 25% rally on Tuesday, before slipping back
🇫🇷 The French equivalent rose as much as 2.5% to record of 408 euros
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What a JOKE…
California is asking the federal government to declare an “electric reliability emergency” so the state can burn more fossil fuels to avoid blackouts
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9) Nothing beats boots on the ground. Fill up that passport. Site visits, meeting management at their offices (not just at hotels/conferences), and doing channel checks are often more useful than building a model. Talk with private companies AND public companies.
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I’ve been busy CORNERING A NICHE NICKEL MARKET, picking up ALL OF THE AVAILABLE COPIES of ‘The Romance of Nickel’, published by INCO (since acquired by
@valeglobal
) in the 1950s…
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Here is a great thread on another CONVENTIONAL OIL producer that is WELL WORTH doing your work on, PetroTal $PTAL.L …
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@a_mccauley
@DavidBCollum
@YellowLabLife
@and
A combination of IRON ORE falling from $220 to under $120 in a few weeks + force majeure at Kennecott COPPER + ongoing issues at Oyu Tolgoi COPPER + rising local opposition at their Jadar LITHIUM project in Serbia + BORING ACCOUNTANT CEO. Maybe $RIO SHOULD BE CHEAP.
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Agreed. But don’t be surprised as the URANIUM BUGS broadcast each tick higher. I certainly like the BULL CASE for URANIUM, but there are some URANIUM BUGS who could make even the most staunch GOLD BUGS look soft.
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Probably a SMART MOVE, but not for the reasons this clown is imagining. By 2030, Canada might need to use their coal to power themselves, so there might be no exports anyways...
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6) The equity investment itself is only half of your analysis. Understand who your counterpart is and how you have exposure. And understand the capital structure and who holds the debt. Often times, debtholders’ interests are NOT aligned with those of equity holders.
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